Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Fun with Words

Gosh, Bloomberg announcers must read this blog, too. I just heard the Brit announcer in the 4AM hour say "panicmongers". ;-)

European market are up bigtime, about 3% in early trading. India is up 5%. Hong Kong +6%. Japan closed up 2%.

Yesterday I took some profits on some panic bottom buys I did. I posted them in the comments: sold 1/2 BAC, 1/3 JPM, 1/3 GE. I had really huge postions in those stocks - too much to hold long term. The panic bottom adds helped lower my average price on the LT positions and I had solid profits on those three stocks. Now I have amounts I can hold a year easily.

This is an example of how having reserves lets one make buys when there is blood in the Street. Those panic bottom buys made up for a dumb, "buck fever" add I made last fall. I did use my reserves plus more from part of the gold & silver sales shifted from the Krypto Fund to really load up. Thankfully, Battleship Ben did my bidding [ hehe ;-) ] and kept shelling the bears who are now waving the white flag. Let's see if a trend develops and a strong bullish pattern develops. For now, I'm holding and will take profits on remaining huge positions at appropriate prices. I'm now about 150% long, down from 200% longs at the lows.

I'll be looking for a few good, long term buys if a bull market begins. I like to stay 150% long in bull market, cutting to 100% on sharper moves up, and buying dips to 200% long on significant, beefer-induced dips.

This market has re-taught some lessons on dealing with hard downturns: don't add to a position unless the price is at least 10% below a prior buy, as that amount is needed to make a significant reduction in one's average price of holdings. And don't be too fast to add, as the downturn can go on longer and further that one might expect on rational reasoning as a "panic" is not rational. And don't accelerate time diversification adds - let the time run out.

I hear a Merrill Lynch analyst downgraded BAC. Dumb. The big banks will gain more business in the next upturn, while investment banks are going to be regulated heavily and see their business contract. The big banks are already regulated and know how to deal with this. The investment banks do not.

That's enough of the market. Let's move on to the fun with words.

Words of the Day

"Nomo-" is a combining form meaning custom, law and is used in the formation of compound words related to "law" (based on the Greek root) [$100]
Nomology [noun] means the science of law or laws.
Nomothetic [adjective] means 1. giving or establishing laws, legislative; 2. founded upon or derived from law; 3. (Psychol.) pertaining to or involving the study or formulation of general or universal laws.
Nomism [noun] means religious conduct based on laws.
Now the fun. let's make a new word, "nomite" to mean "lawyer". [It could also be "nomothete"].
Sentences: Those dirty nomites robbed my grandmother of her estate. :-)
Nomothetes are such sharks, they'd sue their own grandmother. In urban-speak asides in court: Those MF nomites are blood suckering bastards. ;-)

See ... words can be fun ! Next ...

"Conurbation" - noun [$10]
Conurbation means an extended urban area, esp. one consisting of several towns and merging suburbs.
Sentence: American conurbations might shrink and break up as high gasoline prices induce families to move to city centers to cut driving times.

Here's the fun. In urban dialects or in locker rooms, "conurbation" might be used as a polite synonym for circle jerks ;-) Or maybe it could be a secret code word meaning same in offices when mangement has internal conferences where all "share" ideas. Lolol Dilbert could use that word in a comic strip safely. :-))) "Sigh ... another management conurbation ... "

I'm just having fun with words. Mrs. B thought I was nuts when cackling about these two word ideas yesterday evening.

28 comments:

Bud said...

interesting articles in sunday nytimes on the current credit crisis

i wasn't aware that credit default swap market is completely unregulated.....phd's in math and physics from harvard and yale invented these derivative products that caused havoc in our financial system....... the derivatives use borrowed money to invest.........it's works fine til it doesn't.......the doomsday scenario wasn't factored in

i totally agree with Barney Frank ( and the Bman)......we need them to be brought under the straitjacket of regulation.......and it seems like republicans are in favor too


PS......Bman are you in favor of reinstaing Glass-steagel?

Bunkerman said...

No re Glass Steagle. I was against eliminating it, but that really just involved underwriting stocks, etc, not trading activities of the banks which is where the problmes arose.

Derivative don't really use "borrowed" money, unless one includes the collateral as less credit worthy counterparty might have to put up to sell one.

But the "basis" risk of derivatives (deviation from an index); the index derviative products used to "hedge"; and the use of them to make directional trades, and the real question of what a "balanced" book really is ... clearly the Ph D's made the same errors as LTCM genius's did.

My old, now deceased professor at MIT, Fisher Black, understood these anomolous risks - "normal" statiscits really don't work that well for markets except for small changes.

Plus the "assumption" of always having a "market" to trade was relly dumb. I lived in markets that temporarily ceased to exist ... I guess the Gen X Ph D's thought nthey were too smart.

The derivatives need to be regualted, and reasonable capital required for any positions not perfectly offset. A clearing house might help, too.

Bud said...

does mfl's boy 'jimmy' cramer read this blog? he just said "armageddon"

Bunkerman said...

true, Bud ... I think he does; he swiped another idea I had recently.

;-)

mfl59 said...

"mfl's boy jimmie"....

lmaoooooooooooooooooooooo

Frosty said...

Bud...why are you asking old stupid harvard boy questions, you have this situation all figured out....now you favor greater regulation...flip flop in the blood lines of liberals I guess...disgusting indeed sir.

Frosty said...

Daer Sal

please send a moral compass, we are lost...we understand you will need to steal one from a neighbor...chop chop.

Bunkerman said...

added a bit to CVX.

Bud said...

as i learn more......and as the situation changes........i am always ready to ....uh....'flip flop'

being stubborn is for mules

i guess president bush must have some 'mule' blood in his system too

4000 dead in Iraq.....despicable....W and Cheney really are scumbags

"stay the course"

Bunkerman said...

Going to sheep herding class in about half hour. You know what to do ...

Bud said...

Dear Sal,

You and I both want Hillary to win. So let me be frank about the challenge our campaign faces right now.

It couldn't be any simpler than this: we cannot be competitive politically unless we are competitive financially -- and right now we are at a financial disadvantage. The Obama campaign is already spending more than $1 million on an aggressive ad buy in Pennsylvania. For us to win, we have to:
Fund critical voter contact efforts in Pennsylvania.
Get our ads on the air in Pennsylvania's six separate media markets to avoid being overwhelmed by a $1 million, four-day Obama campaign TV ad blitz.
Produce a massive get-out-the-vote effort as April 22 approaches.
Put more resources into our campaign in Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, Puerto Rico, and West Virginia so that we can capitalize on our momentum coming out of Pennsylvania.
Despite the spirited support from Hillary's best supporters, including you, we are still being outraised and outspent by the Obama campaign. He outspent us by more than $10 million in February alone. Let's close the gap so Hillary can win in Pennsylvania, keep on winning, and be our next president.

You've proven your commitment to our campaign by contributing $100, and I would not ask you to give again if it were not so important. Will you help our campaign now with a $100 gift?

Contribute today to help Hillary win.

Just like Hillary, you've worked hard to get us this far. We cannot let up our efforts now and let this race be decided by a shortfall of funds.

One thing I know for sure about Hillary -- if we give her the support she needs, she will never let us down, not as a candidate and not as president. She'll work just as hard for you in the White House as she is on the campaign trail.

Let's match Hillary's efforts with our own. Contribute to help us raise as much as we can by midnight tonight.

I appreciate everything you are doing for Hillary so much. Let's keep working and winning.

Sincerely,

Bill Clinton

Bud said...

sent Hillary a c-note yday..........and here comes bill askin for more $$$$$


PS.....i luv hillary!!!!!!!!!!!

Bud said...

does jimmy cramer read this blog? he wants to reinstate uptick rule...also for etf's

mfl59 said...

"mission accomplished" thumbs up sir!

Frosty said...

don't let a little wood on the ball go to your head...still a huge slump payrod...don't dig in, I spit on the rosin bag, going gaylord.

Bud said...

frosty on the mound??

not only do i dig in......no helmet and no cup...and i'm like big papi at the plate.....spittin and smilin

i don't dig in with the Bman on the mound rite now........he's makin money these days.......and he's throwin hard and inside

"phenomenal trades"

Frosty said...

Dear Sal

Please send your next check to Spinny...our family has moved in with him to say money...Bill, you touch my Rock and you will feel my pain.

Spin-em said...

I hear some people in here cant handle their booze...Im not naming names...but its the most popular beer sold in the US.....

Bud said...

lovers quarrel?

trouble in paradise???

loooooooooooooool

Bud said...

how does frosty say it again?

"touch 'em all Bud !"

Frosty said...

uh Bud..that was caught in foul ground...I can make that call from south alaska.

Frosty said...

Bud..are you really eddie gaedel...I recall a rule that may prohibit you from participating in the majors...not that you have the skills.

Bunkerman said...

back ... good session.

Hmm, my absence worked again.

2nd S&P close over 50 DMA means trouble for the bears.

Frosty said...

uh sir...second over fifty...yes, that worked well for the bears the end of dec 07'.

Bunkerman said...

ugh ... true I remember those fakeouts.

But a return to normalcy might be in order.

Frosty said...

would be nice to have seen some volume confirmation the past couple days...up three with decreasing juice and stocks like SEED up 50%...CPST SOLF 20%...has me on gaurd.

Bunkerman said...

can't have great vol every day.

"Real buyers do it on dips"

But like you, I think bears are lurking to bite & claw.

Bud said...

'normalcy' ???

if that means beefer ping-pong....i'm all for it