Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Spitting Distance ?

Cool title, no ?

Is this the Spitzer bottom ? Is Ms. Market within spitting distance of a bottom ? Time will tell, but that's my thinking. No need to be a hero, though. Be patient. Plenty of profits await the survivors. Follow the boxing adage: "Protect yourself at all times". Don't get stomped by the elephants searching for a new waterhole.

I write what I do or like. I don't "recommend" unless I know one's total financial situation. For example, I am selling much gold & silver to buy US stocks. Now if you don't have profits on old gold & silver investments, you need to think if buying US stocks makes sense. Maybe you already have enough. If so, wait ... be patient ... let the beefers play in the mud ... wait for them to head to the next waterhole and your existing holdings will go along for the ride. Don't get top heavy and risk falling off the elephant. I have to buy more US stocks to meet my asset allocation goals. You might not be in that situation. Or you might not own much. If so, consider making some buys slowly.

Far east Asia markets rejected US bearishness, rising about 1%. India also rejected US bearishness, rising over 1%. London is up a bit in opening hours.

So what do we learn from the Spitzer affair ?

Distrust the rich and powerful. Spitzer was a wealthy man who decided he knew better how the common man should live and how others should act. He craved power. He was a ruthless bastard who did some good acts, but obviously for unsavory reasons, mainly to get more power. A knave. Period.

Nietzsche wrote about the "will to power" that exists in humankind. That drive is quite strong in some ... dangerously. So distrusting those who want more power and are ruthless must be an axiom for the freedom-loving person. The US was created by trusting one with power who did not want power, namely George Washington. To me, we must evaluate demand by modern politicians for power on the Washington standard. If they do not show his characteristics of willingness to decline power, use judgment, to "live and let live" and not be ruthless, we should not support them or trust them.

Being a populist libertarian, you guess my attitudes about Spitzer's core actions. I don't even think hypocrisy is the most venal sin that the US press seems to make it. But Spitzer did violate the sworn trust with his wife and the implied trust of his children. That is his mortal sin. And if a public official breaks one oath flagrantly, how can we trust him with his oath of office ?

The 1990s gave us one example of that violation, which led to pardons of drug dealers for bribes. Let's raise our standards and foreswear support for such knaves on principle.

As long as prices hold up, I'll be selling more gold and silver all week. I buy US stocks with the money as I see good long term values.

Words of the Day

"Bathetic" - adjective [$10] from bathos (pronounced with long "a", short "o")
Bathetic means 1. characterized by bathos; 2. insincere or grossly sentimental pathos.
Sentence: Spitzer's bathetic statement yesterday seems to have been a self-serving attempt to do damage control as he did not announce his resignation.

"Bathos" - noun [$10]
Bathos means 1a. an abrupt, unintended transition in style from the exalted to the commonplace, producing a ludicrous effect.; 1b. an anticlimax; 2a. insincere or grossly sentimental pathos; 2b. banality, triteness.
Sentence: Spitzer's bathos at his press conference was surprising on the facts but is also quite suspicious and self-serving as I wonder if he is deferring resignation to await reaction to determine if he can stay in power.

"Panjandrum" - noun [$10]
Panjandrum means a powerful personage or pretentious official.
Sentence: The press delights in the fall from power of a hypocritcal panjandrum.

58 comments:

Bunkerman said...

McD reported huge same store sales gains in the US. In January, the stock got crushed when that number was a bit light and it's still down. Now what ? Bears were wrong on that one in reality.

Perception vs. reality contest continues.

mern said...

spitzer LMAO!

4800 bucks for an hour.

probably not his first time. wud have been nice to see cramer involved.

i can see it now. cramer wearing a diaper and pacifer in his mouth. elliot riding a donkey. while the hooker is riding a tractor mower through the living room.

mfl59 said...

Before this mess is over do you think an entity like Fannie Mae will fail bunkerman?

Bunkerman said...

no re FNMA, etc., mfl. I don't see the level of real losses as enough. This marking panic will peter out when defaults peak, likely this spring or sooner.

But it's gone on longer than I think it deserves.

FNMA has a line of credit with the Treasury. Congress would have to save it. It's too important to the economy.

Bunkerman said...

This mess doesn prove thatthe libertarians were completely wrong in calling for privatization of FNMA+Freddie.

If FNMA and Freddie hadn't been under close supervision and under restrictions from OFHEO, they would probably be finished.

mfl59 said...

BEN!

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm big new Fed programs.

I don't see Fed outright purhcases of FNMA, etc. But it's a lot.

Also, the outright purchases might follow as the facility matures.

Bunkerman said...

Hmm, maybe Ben reads this blog ?

Bunkerman said...

you can read the actual statement at http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/all/2008all.htm

then click the March 11 link.

Lots of coordination with ECB, Canada, Swiss, BoE, etc.

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm a new TSLF in addition to the TAF.

$200B in agencies, agency mortgage paper, non-agency AAA private label paper. For primaryu dealers: that is big banks and big investment banks and some foreign banks. Auctions begin 3/27.

More swaps with ECB and Swiss, etc.

BoJ supports and likely is in background if needed.

This will fund the margin calls and margin liquidations.

Bunkerman said...

This program is big. The entire monetary base is $800 billion, so $200 billion TSFL and another $100 billion TAF is a lot.

Of course they might take this away from the base in Treasury offsets to keep rates at the target levels. We'll see.

Bunkerman said...

So Battleship Ben gives bears a nine 16" gun broadside of armor piercing high explosive shells. Good move.

Still would like direct FNMA purchases.

Bunkerman said...

hope you reader bears didn't go home short too much.

Bud said...

Ben starting 3 day short game lesson with Dave Pelz today

palyin at augusta this weekend

he doesn't wanna be bothered

Bud said...

i'll wait fot PA polls around april15th

if hillary is behind in them .......forget 112bux....i'll pay triple for y'all to play.......a dozen rollin rocks too

Bud said...

poor frosty

he's been waitin for a democratic sex scandal

and then it happens

but to a democrat that absolutely despise

lmaooooooooooooooo

Bud said...

uh...............i don't think the 'reader bears' have any complaints with the markets

Bud said...

if you read tha barrons article this weekend...........i think FNM shareholders will be wiped out

government will fulfill their obligations......but shareholders will be left holding the bag

Bud said...

Mern works at BSC? which department? mail room ?

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...so the thesis is if spitzer if done goning down, so is the tape...fair enough.

Frosty said...

Spinny is the king...long live the king...long fins on yesterdays close via short SKF 139.75...what a call...hail the king.

Bud said...

are frosty and spin lovers?

not that there's anythin wrong with that

i just think larry craig will get jealous

Bunkerman said...

Uh ... frosty ... the Spitzer bottom connection was a joke.

Bunkerman said...

just seemed like selling was drying up ... running outr of bearish reasons, etc.

Did buy some C and JPM near close yesterday.

Bear attack will occur.

Bunkerman said...

Also thought the Asia + Europe rejections were significant.

Bud said...

loooooool Bman

frosty you are good


PS........lemme help you out Bman.......frsoty is a smart aleck wise guy........don't ever tkae any of his questions seriously

mfl59 said...

bunkerman do you think Ben and crew are concerned with the dollar?

Bunkerman said...

Yes, as that is probably driing oil up now. The marginal buyer of oil is not US, hence $ pushes it up.

So this new policy might let then not pump so much through the overnight rate.

Still see 50 bps next meeting. But these projectiosn of sub 2% are not going to happen if they start buying FNMA, etc., instead of just Treasuries.

Bunkerman said...

I wonder what were the "unusual" acivities Spitzer liked ?

:-)

Frosty said...

where are the DOW 12000 helmets...the trading gods are angery...may need to toss some fins into the volcano.

Bud said...

do bloomberg-tv producers read this blog?

the host just said " is the american banking system headed for armageddon?"

Bunkerman said...

perhaps they do, Abud.

We are obviously opinion leaders !

Bunkerman said...

Taking Kelpies to sheep herding classes. Back before close.

Frosty said...

Dear Sal (aka client #69)

Send mo' money...LMAOOOOOOOO

Bud said...

Ben furious

had to pull him out of the green side bunker lesson


BSC bankruptcy phone call

Frosty said...

Bunkerman chasing farm animals...so here goes...this is just beefers raiding the fins to test the metal of the real buyers at mid-day...if they can pass the test they go higher, real buyers know value increased with today's action....xoxoxxo Ben.

mfl59 said...

rumor: Ben uses his putter out of the bunker....

Bud said...

looooooooooool putter


i used to do that first year i played


may need to go back that the way i played out of bunker last week

Spin-em said...

you shoot 99's..just pick it up and throw it Bud..no penalty.looooll

Frosty said...

Bud plays willie nelson rules...liberal scoring at it's finest...spitzer/hildog approve this message.

Bud said...

loooooooooooooooool


what i like to do is when i can't find my ball.........just pick one out of my pocket and drop it.....no penalty


"i know it's somewhere around here.......guys behind us are waitin......we gotta keep up with the group ahead of us"

mfl59 said...

you pull those antics on the muni track in Scranton Bud and you'll find yourself hanging from a tree...

Frosty said...

FXE...MLF59 has the bfh out...watching you.

Spin-em said...

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO...mfl's going to be my fri night league partner this year

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman consider BSC sir....getting cheaper by the day....trading at less than its recorded book value....with the name-with the customers-witht the capital infusion- is this a name that a big bank would want to take on sir?

mfl59 said...

Ben cooking up some bear stew today....have a dish tonight Bunkerman along with the "perfect martini"...

Frosty said...

IFN...mr hunt off to corner india...sniffed out the beefer bear leaning and stomped on his sack.

mfl59 said...

lolol...the beefers certainly had the better of mr. hunt yesterday....thanks to Ben I get the last laugh...

Bud said...

beefer ping pong back????

i sure hope so


PS....did they reinstate the uptick rule?

Frosty said...

GS hoping that ping pong is game on...looks like it wants to go out below the open.

mfl59 said...

the boys want it up 400...

the ole Spitzer rally....

Frosty said...

GS green...the bear pole axing compete.

Bunkerman said...

BSC is worth only book value, whatever that is. The high net worth, equity are business are OK; investmetn banking very small. That's it. Small firm now.

Bunkerman said...

nice close at the highs.

Frosty said...

please no IBD day #1...jinx indeed sir.

Spin-em said...

looooool

Bunkerman said...

IBD follows the Nazz with thsoe four letter stocks. I follow the S&P. Market is still in rally phase as old intraday low was not taken out. A double bottom formation is in place now. A "W" is confirmed IF the recent intermediate high gets taken out by two consecutive closes.

Bunkerman said...

hence no IBD day #1 count. :-)