Belated Thursday AM post

True title: "Those Darn Beefers"

This post is truly what I was thinking late Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning after the beefers all decided to bail out of commodities and energy stocks at the same time. This incessant herd behavior of so much "managed" money is really dangerous for the "common man" investor unless he understands it. That's why I am always reitierating that one must understand their actions and behavior in picking long term investing points.

My first blog post of January 14, 2007 defined "beefer" and amazingly, that description of their behavior fits recent actions rather well. Mirabile dictu !

For a few weeks all we heard about were commodities and energy going to the moon ... parabolic ... hyperbolic ... asymptotic. Your writer posted sales of all his miners (RIO, BHP, FCX, PHU and RTP) and also numerous large sales in gold & silver culminating in Tuesday's last big "quintuple" load at 11:00 AM just before the Fed meeting.

Was I a great technician ? No. I just had a fundamental outlook that oil and the mineral prices had peaked for awhile and would fall, then base. But the beefers ... do they think ? No. They just barge into stocks+commodities and play the "momentum" game. So as the dollar kept going down, I figured the Fed might toss a fig leaf towards supporting the dollar adn start a beefer stampede out of commodities and commoditiy stocks. Hence, I wanted all my sales done before the Tuesday FOMC meeting. They did. And all the beefers bailed at once. Mirabile dictu !

All I had was good knowledge of behavior of the beefers. I've seen them do these idiotic stampedes before.

Here's a ditty I composed and posted on August 8, 2007:

***reprise from August 8, 2007 post***
Song of the times follows (based on the song, "The Grand Old Duke of York") ->

The beefer Duke of Funds
He had ten thousand stocks
He marched them up to the market top
And marched them down again.

Lolol, that ditty gave into my head yesterday afternoon. I sang it in my turret.
***End of reprise***

So that ditty came into my head driving to my hometown on Wednesday afternoon. I wanted to post this Thursday morning, but my Internet connection in Ohio had equipment problems, so I was cut off from the "modern" world.

What to do ?

Wait a few weeks or months ... oil must base for a long while around $100 and other minerals, too, at these prices as clearly price-demand rationing is taking hold. So wait. The oils & miners will be great long term buys again as the beefers liquidate. I plan to add to DVN, CVX and rebuy some of BHP, RTP, RIO and/or PCU later this year, but am in no hurry.

The big banks seem to have bottomed. I have plenty and will wait for the beefers to barge into them in the next few weeks/months then I will lighten up to amounts I can hold for a few years.