Nothing is happening.
Krypto has a sell order for some emerging market stocks via VWO, the Vanguard Emerging Market ETF. It's a weak signal, so I think I'll wait a bit, as I did last time on that one. This is just a rebalancing trade at the 5% level, meaning that the asset class of emerging market stocks has 5% move money in it that a perfectly balance portfolio would have. A strong signal is 10%.
A second effort for a summer rally is in progress. Perhaps this time it will get further along. Futures are up this AM after being flat overnight.
Word of the Day
"Simulacrum" - noun [$10] the 'i' is short as in 'bit'; the 'a' can be either long or short.
Simulacrum means 1. an image or a representation; 2. an unreal or vague semblance. ALT: 1. an image of something; 2. a. a shadowy likeness, a deceptive substitute; b. mere pretense.
Sentence: Obama is a mere simulacrum of a leader. All talk, no substance.
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Whither Now ?
On Tuesday Krypto went shopping for US stocks and yesterday Ms. Market rewarded her patience. Is it party time - will Ms. Market start dancing on the tables for a summer rally ?
To this person sitting in his bunker in the deep woods, that outcome seems quite possible. The world has been treated to months of doom & gloom; the permabears have been feeding for too long. Newsletters seem rather extreme now. Why can't the US and world just muddle along and start a decent recovery late this year ? IF SO, a summer rally to price in a better outcome can occur.
The future is not certain - nothing is written. BUT barring new bad news, I want to be long & strong and hold my stocks for awhile.
Word of the Day
"Cacochromatic" - adjective [?] a Mencken word
Cacochromatic means having or displaying a jumbled, unpleasant mixture of colors. The word is formed with the [Greek] combining form, caco-, meaning bad, and chromatic, meaning colors.
Sentence: Perhaps I am truly an anachronism, but to me, lights shows are cacochromatic crap, to be enjoyed only if one hits the bong hard, like the cacophony that is much modern jazz.
To this person sitting in his bunker in the deep woods, that outcome seems quite possible. The world has been treated to months of doom & gloom; the permabears have been feeding for too long. Newsletters seem rather extreme now. Why can't the US and world just muddle along and start a decent recovery late this year ? IF SO, a summer rally to price in a better outcome can occur.
The future is not certain - nothing is written. BUT barring new bad news, I want to be long & strong and hold my stocks for awhile.
Word of the Day
"Cacochromatic" - adjective [?] a Mencken word
Cacochromatic means having or displaying a jumbled, unpleasant mixture of colors. The word is formed with the [Greek] combining form, caco-, meaning bad, and chromatic, meaning colors.
Sentence: Perhaps I am truly an anachronism, but to me, lights shows are cacochromatic crap, to be enjoyed only if one hits the bong hard, like the cacophony that is much modern jazz.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Krypto Wants ...
to buy some US stocks. She's sitting next to me with a paw on my lap and is licking her chops and giving me a nudge. She ran her computer model this AM and sees that US stocks are now under allocated significantly. She want some, so we'll buy a good bit of VTI in the morning. VTI is the US Total Market Index Fund offered by Vanguard. The funds will come from cash which she piled up by selling stocks at much higher prices a few months ago.
One intriguing thing about mechanical asset allocation models: they sure like buying when the fear is palpable and they sell when the greed is infectious. And a model run by a dog is even more impervious to human emotions. Krypto doesn't really know what the model is doing. She just presses the button, generates the trade orders, and gets a dog biscuit as a fee.
No machines running machines here - I use my good doggie, Krypto, as a biological cut-out.
Just imagine what a big "wealth management" firm would charge ? They like to get at least 1%, preferably 1.5% or even 2% of "managed" assets. Per $1 million under management, that's $10-20,000 a year. Krypto is beating the benchmark index [the S&P 500] by more than 5% year-to-date. And for what fee ? Dog biscuits. Hence the true value of all those asset management firms is ... zero. And most of that asset management advice is worth ... zero.
Notice I said "most" advice is worthless. A good broker who listens and helps a person who knows nothing about investing and who guides the person to good, diversified investing (and doesn't try to churn) and helps education a person in meeting financial goals and avoiding emotions or foolish moves, is worth a lot. Those are valuable fees for worthwhile services. I have arranged for Mrs. B to have a good broker for her Sky Fund and she's done very well. The fund pays full commissions for its investments. And it's worth it.
BUT all the "wealth management" hype about finding superior performance is utter garbage. Excellent performance can be obtained for almost free. Just follow Krypto and pay dog biscuits. Those firms who want to charge you to find that "superior performance" guarantee nothing. If they fail, you lose, but still pay. If they succeed, you'll like pay more especially if they put you into hedge funds.
Word of the Day
"Equipoise" - noun and verb [$10]
Equipoise means (noun) 1. equilibrium, a balanced state; 2. a counterbalancing thing; (verb) to counterbalance.
Sentence: [joke] Krypto has superior equipoise for her investing. Is that from her biological advantage - viz. having four legs ? Nope. She equipoises moves up with sales, and moves down with buys using a mechanical model.
One intriguing thing about mechanical asset allocation models: they sure like buying when the fear is palpable and they sell when the greed is infectious. And a model run by a dog is even more impervious to human emotions. Krypto doesn't really know what the model is doing. She just presses the button, generates the trade orders, and gets a dog biscuit as a fee.
No machines running machines here - I use my good doggie, Krypto, as a biological cut-out.
Just imagine what a big "wealth management" firm would charge ? They like to get at least 1%, preferably 1.5% or even 2% of "managed" assets. Per $1 million under management, that's $10-20,000 a year. Krypto is beating the benchmark index [the S&P 500] by more than 5% year-to-date. And for what fee ? Dog biscuits. Hence the true value of all those asset management firms is ... zero. And most of that asset management advice is worth ... zero.
Notice I said "most" advice is worthless. A good broker who listens and helps a person who knows nothing about investing and who guides the person to good, diversified investing (and doesn't try to churn) and helps education a person in meeting financial goals and avoiding emotions or foolish moves, is worth a lot. Those are valuable fees for worthwhile services. I have arranged for Mrs. B to have a good broker for her Sky Fund and she's done very well. The fund pays full commissions for its investments. And it's worth it.
BUT all the "wealth management" hype about finding superior performance is utter garbage. Excellent performance can be obtained for almost free. Just follow Krypto and pay dog biscuits. Those firms who want to charge you to find that "superior performance" guarantee nothing. If they fail, you lose, but still pay. If they succeed, you'll like pay more especially if they put you into hedge funds.
Word of the Day
"Equipoise" - noun and verb [$10]
Equipoise means (noun) 1. equilibrium, a balanced state; 2. a counterbalancing thing; (verb) to counterbalance.
Sentence: [joke] Krypto has superior equipoise for her investing. Is that from her biological advantage - viz. having four legs ? Nope. She equipoises moves up with sales, and moves down with buys using a mechanical model.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Watching ...
Krypto is watching this market now as intently as she watches a herd of sheep. She's getting ready to deploy some cash. The model is close to giving her a re-allocation buy signal for US stocks. She sold a good amount of those at much higher prices and looks to re-buy soon. I think S&P around 1000 to 1011 will give a good signal.
I'm also questioning the size of holdings in TIPs now. Those are getting to ridiculously high prices. Krypto has targeted 10% of assets in TIPs, 2.5% in cash. She recenlty cut TIPs from 12.5% to 10%. I wonder if some more of the TIPs should go to cash, for eventual redeployment. Thinking ...
Stock prices are down in Europe - more fears.
Anecdotally, New England business seems improving. I saw another new private construction project in my little town's center. Permabears are likely soon to be caught short.
Economy
Today we get another look at unemployment claims. I expect nothing good. The jobs picture and economy cannot improve until the weekly new unemployment claims falls under 400,000, preferably to under 300,000 per week.
PS: 472,000 new jobless claims. There is no "recovery". Still slogging in the swamp. Here's 472,000 new "thank you" messages for Pelosi-Obama-Reid ... hmmm ... that acronym is POR - guess it fits their performance and the status of far too many people in America.
Word of the Day
"Marasmus" - noun [$10]
Marasmus means a wasting away of the body.
Sentence: The world economy is not suffering from marasmus; the productive assets and human capital are still there and simply need to be put to use by people with vision and will.
I'm also questioning the size of holdings in TIPs now. Those are getting to ridiculously high prices. Krypto has targeted 10% of assets in TIPs, 2.5% in cash. She recenlty cut TIPs from 12.5% to 10%. I wonder if some more of the TIPs should go to cash, for eventual redeployment. Thinking ...
Stock prices are down in Europe - more fears.
Anecdotally, New England business seems improving. I saw another new private construction project in my little town's center. Permabears are likely soon to be caught short.
Economy
Today we get another look at unemployment claims. I expect nothing good. The jobs picture and economy cannot improve until the weekly new unemployment claims falls under 400,000, preferably to under 300,000 per week.
PS: 472,000 new jobless claims. There is no "recovery". Still slogging in the swamp. Here's 472,000 new "thank you" messages for Pelosi-Obama-Reid ... hmmm ... that acronym is POR - guess it fits their performance and the status of far too many people in America.
Word of the Day
"Marasmus" - noun [$10]
Marasmus means a wasting away of the body.
Sentence: The world economy is not suffering from marasmus; the productive assets and human capital are still there and simply need to be put to use by people with vision and will.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Traveling to the Heartland ...
Around midday today I will travel to Ohio to my hometown and expect not to have Internet access there. So I will be unable to make new posts to this blog until Monday.
Here’s an interesting story:
Central banks have all but stopped lending gold to commercial and investment banks and other participants in the precious metals market, in a move that on Tuesday sent the cost of borrowing bullion for one-month to more than twenty times its usual level. …
Demand for physical gold and small and medium-sized bars had been strong, removing supplies from the market that otherwise could have been lent, traders added. … The US Mint on Tuesday said it had run out of half-ounce and quarter-ounce American Eagle gold coins following “unprecedented” demand.
Investors are seeking refuge in actual gold coins and bars as fears about the safety of their savings increase. Some have even been selling their positions in gold futures, as this is a less tangible form of the metal.
Despite the recent move up, gold is still well below its price this Spring when gold sold for over $1,000 per ounces, which is when I sold the bulk of the physical gold in my Krypto Fund. But I still have a good bit – enough for a real crisis of civilization.
Cad of the Week, Ken Lewis of BAC gutted his own shareholders as he funded his construction of his monumental edifice: clearly the purchase of MER has shaved 1/3 to 1/2 off the value of BAC. Cad Ken sells $10 billion of BAC stock at $22, a 1/3 haircut off its recent trading range.
Battleship Ben continues heavy shelling and no doubt the cure is pulsing through the veins of the patient. But what is happening now is the deluge of a trillion $$$ of hedge funds liquidations as the rich continue to panic. The rich “invested” over a trillion $ since the mid 1990s in hedge funds that were no more than speculative trading shops. No long term "real" investments were made with all this money. No new mines … buildings …. factories … or even venture capital was funded. And most of this money went into “trades” in similar investment strategies. The managers extracted colossal fees – billions - for merely being cow in the herd.
Hank the Tank continues to build his offensive resources and refine his plans. Soon the financial version of Bradley’s Operation Cobra offensive will be launched. Once the bears line is crushed, Patton’s tanks will roll up the bears. He’s got to get this right and not squander his resources.
Using the medical analogy, the fever is now peaking and will soon subside. Then the recovery.
The UK is recapitalizing its banks. And requiring the banks to lend. Seems OK to me. Note that HSBC [ticker HBC] says it does not need the money and will not participate.
I wonder when the ECB and BOE will cut interests rates ? The silence is remarkably deafening.
I hate to mention a longer term drag, but all those homeowners who took out balloon mortgages for 5-7 years might have serious problems refinancing. That is a lesson to be re-learned after first learnignit in the 1920s. I ranted about that practice here and in other forums over the past few years. But as usual, greed ruled over sense.
PS: Isn't it odd that many/most anecdotes about people in trouble with home morgtages include a cash out re-financing or home equity loan spent on vacations, etc. A home is a home is a home; it's not an investment or a piggy bank.
Markets
Asia got crushed last night. My chronic infection of “buyearlyitis” continues. I bought a bit of JOYG yesterday and some JPM. So far I have not shown symptoms of “addearlyitis” .. whew !
For now I will wait until the storm subsides, then go to 150% long in Alpha Fund.
Mrs. B continues to show incredible restraint in shopping for bargains in investing a substantial amount of cash. Amazing … a master at work.
Some Memories
I remember orientation sessions in 1981 as I started work fresh out of business school at a major Wall Street firm. A US Treasury bond trade came to speak one afternoon. His eyes were wide open in fear, and he spoke quietly and slowly as if in shock. At the time I think US Treasury bonds were priced to yield about 14% and the Prime Rate was over 20%. He just said there was no liquidity and no bids for bonds. And then he repeated himself. After a few minutes of desultory talk, he left.
I remember that black Monday in 1987 when the stock market fell 22% in one day, due to that great financial innovation called "portfolio" insurance.. The market had fallen a total of 33% from its prior high in mid August.
I have memories of massive unemployment in 1974 and gas lines as the first oil price "adjustion" caused a massive recession in all the world's economies. Stocks fell about 40% in that period.
This seems so much like those periods, but differs in details. And unfortunately it did not have to happen. Just like 1981 and 1987 events. As for 1974, perhaps that need not have happened either except for OPEC greed and desire to use oil as a weapon.
But one can look at the 100 year wall charts to see that a grand new time of prosperity will eventually occur as long as governments don't start fighting each other either with trade wars or militarily.
Word of the Day
"Ague" - noun [$10]
Ague means 1. (historical) a malarial fever with cold, hot and sweating stages; 2. a shivering fit.
Sentence: As the markets' ague continues, the Fed & Treasury cures are being fed intravenously now. Will the fever peak & break soon and how low will the recovery take ?
Here’s an interesting story:
Central banks have all but stopped lending gold to commercial and investment banks and other participants in the precious metals market, in a move that on Tuesday sent the cost of borrowing bullion for one-month to more than twenty times its usual level. …
Demand for physical gold and small and medium-sized bars had been strong, removing supplies from the market that otherwise could have been lent, traders added. … The US Mint on Tuesday said it had run out of half-ounce and quarter-ounce American Eagle gold coins following “unprecedented” demand.
Investors are seeking refuge in actual gold coins and bars as fears about the safety of their savings increase. Some have even been selling their positions in gold futures, as this is a less tangible form of the metal.
Despite the recent move up, gold is still well below its price this Spring when gold sold for over $1,000 per ounces, which is when I sold the bulk of the physical gold in my Krypto Fund. But I still have a good bit – enough for a real crisis of civilization.
Cad of the Week, Ken Lewis of BAC gutted his own shareholders as he funded his construction of his monumental edifice: clearly the purchase of MER has shaved 1/3 to 1/2 off the value of BAC. Cad Ken sells $10 billion of BAC stock at $22, a 1/3 haircut off its recent trading range.
Battleship Ben continues heavy shelling and no doubt the cure is pulsing through the veins of the patient. But what is happening now is the deluge of a trillion $$$ of hedge funds liquidations as the rich continue to panic. The rich “invested” over a trillion $ since the mid 1990s in hedge funds that were no more than speculative trading shops. No long term "real" investments were made with all this money. No new mines … buildings …. factories … or even venture capital was funded. And most of this money went into “trades” in similar investment strategies. The managers extracted colossal fees – billions - for merely being cow in the herd.
Hank the Tank continues to build his offensive resources and refine his plans. Soon the financial version of Bradley’s Operation Cobra offensive will be launched. Once the bears line is crushed, Patton’s tanks will roll up the bears. He’s got to get this right and not squander his resources.
Using the medical analogy, the fever is now peaking and will soon subside. Then the recovery.
The UK is recapitalizing its banks. And requiring the banks to lend. Seems OK to me. Note that HSBC [ticker HBC] says it does not need the money and will not participate.
I wonder when the ECB and BOE will cut interests rates ? The silence is remarkably deafening.
I hate to mention a longer term drag, but all those homeowners who took out balloon mortgages for 5-7 years might have serious problems refinancing. That is a lesson to be re-learned after first learnignit in the 1920s. I ranted about that practice here and in other forums over the past few years. But as usual, greed ruled over sense.
PS: Isn't it odd that many/most anecdotes about people in trouble with home morgtages include a cash out re-financing or home equity loan spent on vacations, etc. A home is a home is a home; it's not an investment or a piggy bank.
Markets
Asia got crushed last night. My chronic infection of “buyearlyitis” continues. I bought a bit of JOYG yesterday and some JPM. So far I have not shown symptoms of “addearlyitis” .. whew !
For now I will wait until the storm subsides, then go to 150% long in Alpha Fund.
Mrs. B continues to show incredible restraint in shopping for bargains in investing a substantial amount of cash. Amazing … a master at work.
Some Memories
I remember orientation sessions in 1981 as I started work fresh out of business school at a major Wall Street firm. A US Treasury bond trade came to speak one afternoon. His eyes were wide open in fear, and he spoke quietly and slowly as if in shock. At the time I think US Treasury bonds were priced to yield about 14% and the Prime Rate was over 20%. He just said there was no liquidity and no bids for bonds. And then he repeated himself. After a few minutes of desultory talk, he left.
I remember that black Monday in 1987 when the stock market fell 22% in one day, due to that great financial innovation called "portfolio" insurance.. The market had fallen a total of 33% from its prior high in mid August.
I have memories of massive unemployment in 1974 and gas lines as the first oil price "adjustion" caused a massive recession in all the world's economies. Stocks fell about 40% in that period.
This seems so much like those periods, but differs in details. And unfortunately it did not have to happen. Just like 1981 and 1987 events. As for 1974, perhaps that need not have happened either except for OPEC greed and desire to use oil as a weapon.
But one can look at the 100 year wall charts to see that a grand new time of prosperity will eventually occur as long as governments don't start fighting each other either with trade wars or militarily.
Word of the Day
"Ague" - noun [$10]
Ague means 1. (historical) a malarial fever with cold, hot and sweating stages; 2. a shivering fit.
Sentence: As the markets' ague continues, the Fed & Treasury cures are being fed intravenously now. Will the fever peak & break soon and how low will the recovery take ?
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Missing Links
While modern man seems to eschew facts, your blogger's quotidian reading of three newspapers (paper ones) and a few more online finds many reported facts to develop his theories, and his quotidian mingling with the common man, aka the average Joe, provides more.
Japan's GDP grew 4% in real terms in Q1 of 2008 (WSJ 6/12).
Bunkerman bought 30 DVDs of his favorite movies as his old VHS tapes from 20 years ago are wearing out [they get too dark to view]. The price: about $9 each on http://www.amazon.com/ ; he paid about $20 per tape in the late 1980s. So this form of entertainment has declined in price by more than 50% over 20 years, plus improved quality. Whither inflation ?
The new Apple 3G iPhone will sell for $200. Last year the original product was introduced for $400. Higher quality, price down 50% in one year. Whither inflation ?
Bunkerman bought a case of a fine, local craft ale named "Ipswich Ale" produced by Mercury Brewing Company about 10 miles from my bunker. Price - $26 per case. Prior price: $25 per case for prior three years. That's a rise of 1.3% per year, validating core inflation measures.
Markets
Late yesterday we witnessed a fine example of 1920s style market manipulation. The Oppenhemier bank analyst comes on CNBC near the close to shriek about doom for the banks ... again. Why ? Why on TV near the close ? Readings of 1920s style market manipulation show old antics is now the modus operandi of the beefers. Load up shorts, then get a prominent person to go to the press and present doom. Then with no uptick rule, hit them with big short orders and hit the XFL bigtime with more shorts and probably hit the options, too. So her beefer clients loaded up and she obligingly goes on babblevision airhead Maria's show in the last 30 minutes of trading. Market manipulation re-born thanks to the SEC.
In Q1 the obvious anti-bubble trade was sell gold & silver, buy stocks. The obvious anti-bubble trade now is to sell oil, buy stocks. WB weekly chart looks like a black hole is forming. Ugh ! I can't sell my oil stocks since the gains would be ST. Yesterday I re-bought all the BAC shares I had flipped around 43 in March, so I've doubled up. On Monday I am considering re-buying the WB and C shares I sold on 5/15 for a tax loss. I can then sell the old, higher priced shares in 31 days for a ST tax loss to offset my gold & silver profits. That will save me 40% - worth doing. Still thinking about JPM re-buy as it's not down enough yet to let me do the tax loss play for enough money.
Ruling Classes
A top Obama advisor resigns after his special deal loans from Countrywide Finanace become public. These knaves are all alike. Grind down the common man with taxes while getting favored treatment.
Word of the Day
"Manque" - adjective [$10], pronounced "man ka" with the "a" in "man" as in father and the "ka" rhymes with may, accent on "ka"; used postpositionally, i. e., after the noun.
Manque means [$10] that might have been but is not, unfullfilled; [$100] having failed, missed or fallen short, esp. because of circumstances of a defect of character, unsuccessful, frustrated.
Sentence: Will the Hillary campaign manque now provide a wave of new support for Big John McCain from angry Hillary voters ?
Japan's GDP grew 4% in real terms in Q1 of 2008 (WSJ 6/12).
Bunkerman bought 30 DVDs of his favorite movies as his old VHS tapes from 20 years ago are wearing out [they get too dark to view]. The price: about $9 each on http://www.amazon.com/ ; he paid about $20 per tape in the late 1980s. So this form of entertainment has declined in price by more than 50% over 20 years, plus improved quality. Whither inflation ?
The new Apple 3G iPhone will sell for $200. Last year the original product was introduced for $400. Higher quality, price down 50% in one year. Whither inflation ?
Bunkerman bought a case of a fine, local craft ale named "Ipswich Ale" produced by Mercury Brewing Company about 10 miles from my bunker. Price - $26 per case. Prior price: $25 per case for prior three years. That's a rise of 1.3% per year, validating core inflation measures.
Markets
Late yesterday we witnessed a fine example of 1920s style market manipulation. The Oppenhemier bank analyst comes on CNBC near the close to shriek about doom for the banks ... again. Why ? Why on TV near the close ? Readings of 1920s style market manipulation show old antics is now the modus operandi of the beefers. Load up shorts, then get a prominent person to go to the press and present doom. Then with no uptick rule, hit them with big short orders and hit the XFL bigtime with more shorts and probably hit the options, too. So her beefer clients loaded up and she obligingly goes on babblevision airhead Maria's show in the last 30 minutes of trading. Market manipulation re-born thanks to the SEC.
In Q1 the obvious anti-bubble trade was sell gold & silver, buy stocks. The obvious anti-bubble trade now is to sell oil, buy stocks. WB weekly chart looks like a black hole is forming. Ugh ! I can't sell my oil stocks since the gains would be ST. Yesterday I re-bought all the BAC shares I had flipped around 43 in March, so I've doubled up. On Monday I am considering re-buying the WB and C shares I sold on 5/15 for a tax loss. I can then sell the old, higher priced shares in 31 days for a ST tax loss to offset my gold & silver profits. That will save me 40% - worth doing. Still thinking about JPM re-buy as it's not down enough yet to let me do the tax loss play for enough money.
Ruling Classes
A top Obama advisor resigns after his special deal loans from Countrywide Finanace become public. These knaves are all alike. Grind down the common man with taxes while getting favored treatment.
Word of the Day
"Manque" - adjective [$10], pronounced "man ka" with the "a" in "man" as in father and the "ka" rhymes with may, accent on "ka"; used postpositionally, i. e., after the noun.
Manque means [$10] that might have been but is not, unfullfilled; [$100] having failed, missed or fallen short, esp. because of circumstances of a defect of character, unsuccessful, frustrated.
Sentence: Will the Hillary campaign manque now provide a wave of new support for Big John McCain from angry Hillary voters ?
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Investor's Soliloquy
Today seems appropriate to resurrect an old writing that I've slightly modified to suit the current market.
Investor’s Soliloquy (B):
To buy, or not to buy – that is the question:
Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of bear raids
Or to make some buys in a sea of red stocks
And by buying join them. To hold, to sell—
No more – and by a sale to say we save
The heartache, and the thousand small hits
The P&L is heir to. ‘Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To sell, to buy—
To buy – perchance to survive: ay, there’s the rub,
For in that calm buy what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this bear raid
Must give us pause. There’s the respect
That makes huge gains of low price buys.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of bears,
Th’ hedgie’s wrong, the perma-bear’s contumely
The pangs of despised shorts, the move’s delay,
The insolence of gurus, and the spurns
That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,
When he himself might hide in cash
With the “Sell All” button? Who would burdens bear,
To sigh and sweat before a blinking screen,
But that the dread of something after selling,
The undiscovered roaring bull, till such end
Much gold is made, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather buy those stocks we like
Than hide in cash that we know gives little?
Thus fear does make sitters of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprise of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action. -- Rise you now,
The fair Ms. Market! -- Nymph, in thy prayers
Be all my stocks remembered.
For any Gen-X, Y and Zers, this is based on the famous Hamlet's Soliloquy of William Shakespeare written about 400 years ago. Suitably altered, the soliloquy makes a fine self-reflection for many vital decisions.
Word of the Day
"Contumely" - noun [$10]
Contumely means 1. insolent or reproachful language or treatment; 2. disgrace.
Sentence: Lonely bulls like Bunkerman bear much contumely from the arrogant bears, but the confidence in his mind about the Fed's actions steels him.
Investor’s Soliloquy (B):
To buy, or not to buy – that is the question:
Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of bear raids
Or to make some buys in a sea of red stocks
And by buying join them. To hold, to sell—
No more – and by a sale to say we save
The heartache, and the thousand small hits
The P&L is heir to. ‘Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To sell, to buy—
To buy – perchance to survive: ay, there’s the rub,
For in that calm buy what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this bear raid
Must give us pause. There’s the respect
That makes huge gains of low price buys.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of bears,
Th’ hedgie’s wrong, the perma-bear’s contumely
The pangs of despised shorts, the move’s delay,
The insolence of gurus, and the spurns
That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,
When he himself might hide in cash
With the “Sell All” button? Who would burdens bear,
To sigh and sweat before a blinking screen,
But that the dread of something after selling,
The undiscovered roaring bull, till such end
Much gold is made, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather buy those stocks we like
Than hide in cash that we know gives little?
Thus fear does make sitters of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprise of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action. -- Rise you now,
The fair Ms. Market! -- Nymph, in thy prayers
Be all my stocks remembered.
For any Gen-X, Y and Zers, this is based on the famous Hamlet's Soliloquy of William Shakespeare written about 400 years ago. Suitably altered, the soliloquy makes a fine self-reflection for many vital decisions.
Word of the Day
"Contumely" - noun [$10]
Contumely means 1. insolent or reproachful language or treatment; 2. disgrace.
Sentence: Lonely bulls like Bunkerman bear much contumely from the arrogant bears, but the confidence in his mind about the Fed's actions steels him.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Belated Thursday AM post
True title: "Those Darn Beefers"
This post is truly what I was thinking late Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning after the beefers all decided to bail out of commodities and energy stocks at the same time. This incessant herd behavior of so much "managed" money is really dangerous for the "common man" investor unless he understands it. That's why I am always reitierating that one must understand their actions and behavior in picking long term investing points.
My first blog post of January 14, 2007 defined "beefer" and amazingly, that description of their behavior fits recent actions rather well. Mirabile dictu !
For a few weeks all we heard about were commodities and energy going to the moon ... parabolic ... hyperbolic ... asymptotic. Your writer posted sales of all his miners (RIO, BHP, FCX, PHU and RTP) and also numerous large sales in gold & silver culminating in Tuesday's last big "quintuple" load at 11:00 AM just before the Fed meeting.
Was I a great technician ? No. I just had a fundamental outlook that oil and the mineral prices had peaked for awhile and would fall, then base. But the beefers ... do they think ? No. They just barge into stocks+commodities and play the "momentum" game. So as the dollar kept going down, I figured the Fed might toss a fig leaf towards supporting the dollar adn start a beefer stampede out of commodities and commoditiy stocks. Hence, I wanted all my sales done before the Tuesday FOMC meeting. They did. And all the beefers bailed at once. Mirabile dictu !
All I had was good knowledge of behavior of the beefers. I've seen them do these idiotic stampedes before.
Here's a ditty I composed and posted on August 8, 2007:
***reprise from August 8, 2007 post***
Song of the times follows (based on the song, "The Grand Old Duke of York") ->
The beefer Duke of Funds
He had ten thousand stocks
He marched them up to the market top
And marched them down again.
Lolol, that ditty gave into my head yesterday afternoon. I sang it in my turret.
***End of reprise***
So that ditty came into my head driving to my hometown on Wednesday afternoon. I wanted to post this Thursday morning, but my Internet connection in Ohio had equipment problems, so I was cut off from the "modern" world.
What to do ?
Wait a few weeks or months ... oil must base for a long while around $100 and other minerals, too, at these prices as clearly price-demand rationing is taking hold. So wait. The oils & miners will be great long term buys again as the beefers liquidate. I plan to add to DVN, CVX and rebuy some of BHP, RTP, RIO and/or PCU later this year, but am in no hurry.
The big banks seem to have bottomed. I have plenty and will wait for the beefers to barge into them in the next few weeks/months then I will lighten up to amounts I can hold for a few years.
This post is truly what I was thinking late Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning after the beefers all decided to bail out of commodities and energy stocks at the same time. This incessant herd behavior of so much "managed" money is really dangerous for the "common man" investor unless he understands it. That's why I am always reitierating that one must understand their actions and behavior in picking long term investing points.
My first blog post of January 14, 2007 defined "beefer" and amazingly, that description of their behavior fits recent actions rather well. Mirabile dictu !
For a few weeks all we heard about were commodities and energy going to the moon ... parabolic ... hyperbolic ... asymptotic. Your writer posted sales of all his miners (RIO, BHP, FCX, PHU and RTP) and also numerous large sales in gold & silver culminating in Tuesday's last big "quintuple" load at 11:00 AM just before the Fed meeting.
Was I a great technician ? No. I just had a fundamental outlook that oil and the mineral prices had peaked for awhile and would fall, then base. But the beefers ... do they think ? No. They just barge into stocks+commodities and play the "momentum" game. So as the dollar kept going down, I figured the Fed might toss a fig leaf towards supporting the dollar adn start a beefer stampede out of commodities and commoditiy stocks. Hence, I wanted all my sales done before the Tuesday FOMC meeting. They did. And all the beefers bailed at once. Mirabile dictu !
All I had was good knowledge of behavior of the beefers. I've seen them do these idiotic stampedes before.
Here's a ditty I composed and posted on August 8, 2007:
***reprise from August 8, 2007 post***
Song of the times follows (based on the song, "The Grand Old Duke of York") ->
The beefer Duke of Funds
He had ten thousand stocks
He marched them up to the market top
And marched them down again.
Lolol, that ditty gave into my head yesterday afternoon. I sang it in my turret.
***End of reprise***
So that ditty came into my head driving to my hometown on Wednesday afternoon. I wanted to post this Thursday morning, but my Internet connection in Ohio had equipment problems, so I was cut off from the "modern" world.
What to do ?
Wait a few weeks or months ... oil must base for a long while around $100 and other minerals, too, at these prices as clearly price-demand rationing is taking hold. So wait. The oils & miners will be great long term buys again as the beefers liquidate. I plan to add to DVN, CVX and rebuy some of BHP, RTP, RIO and/or PCU later this year, but am in no hurry.
The big banks seem to have bottomed. I have plenty and will wait for the beefers to barge into them in the next few weeks/months then I will lighten up to amounts I can hold for a few years.
Friday, March 21, 2008
SNAFU in Ohio
No post Thursday and Friday as the DSL modem at Mom's house in Ohio was defunct and it seems one can't buy those at Wal-Mart or Radio Shack or anywhere in my small hometown.
Darn, I had some good ideas & thinking about Wednesday, too.
So I will post them Saturday in retrospective.
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