While modern man seems to eschew facts, your blogger's quotidian reading of three newspapers (paper ones) and a few more online finds many reported facts to develop his theories, and his quotidian mingling with the common man, aka the average Joe, provides more.
Japan's GDP grew 4% in real terms in Q1 of 2008 (WSJ 6/12).
Bunkerman bought 30 DVDs of his favorite movies as his old VHS tapes from 20 years ago are wearing out [they get too dark to view]. The price: about $9 each on http://www.amazon.com/ ; he paid about $20 per tape in the late 1980s. So this form of entertainment has declined in price by more than 50% over 20 years, plus improved quality. Whither inflation ?
The new Apple 3G iPhone will sell for $200. Last year the original product was introduced for $400. Higher quality, price down 50% in one year. Whither inflation ?
Bunkerman bought a case of a fine, local craft ale named "Ipswich Ale" produced by Mercury Brewing Company about 10 miles from my bunker. Price - $26 per case. Prior price: $25 per case for prior three years. That's a rise of 1.3% per year, validating core inflation measures.
Markets
Late yesterday we witnessed a fine example of 1920s style market manipulation. The Oppenhemier bank analyst comes on CNBC near the close to shriek about doom for the banks ... again. Why ? Why on TV near the close ? Readings of 1920s style market manipulation show old antics is now the modus operandi of the beefers. Load up shorts, then get a prominent person to go to the press and present doom. Then with no uptick rule, hit them with big short orders and hit the XFL bigtime with more shorts and probably hit the options, too. So her beefer clients loaded up and she obligingly goes on babblevision airhead Maria's show in the last 30 minutes of trading. Market manipulation re-born thanks to the SEC.
In Q1 the obvious anti-bubble trade was sell gold & silver, buy stocks. The obvious anti-bubble trade now is to sell oil, buy stocks. WB weekly chart looks like a black hole is forming. Ugh ! I can't sell my oil stocks since the gains would be ST. Yesterday I re-bought all the BAC shares I had flipped around 43 in March, so I've doubled up. On Monday I am considering re-buying the WB and C shares I sold on 5/15 for a tax loss. I can then sell the old, higher priced shares in 31 days for a ST tax loss to offset my gold & silver profits. That will save me 40% - worth doing. Still thinking about JPM re-buy as it's not down enough yet to let me do the tax loss play for enough money.
Ruling Classes
A top Obama advisor resigns after his special deal loans from Countrywide Finanace become public. These knaves are all alike. Grind down the common man with taxes while getting favored treatment.
Word of the Day
"Manque" - adjective [$10], pronounced "man ka" with the "a" in "man" as in father and the "ka" rhymes with may, accent on "ka"; used postpositionally, i. e., after the noun.
Manque means [$10] that might have been but is not, unfullfilled; [$100] having failed, missed or fallen short, esp. because of circumstances of a defect of character, unsuccessful, frustrated.
Sentence: Will the Hillary campaign manque now provide a wave of new support for Big John McCain from angry Hillary voters ?
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
47 comments:
"1920's type manipulation"
Bud...are you still asleep?
Bunkerman a prominent mkt commentator actually believes that all roads will eventually lead to deflation, not inflation...thoughts?
give me a f'ng break !!!!!!!!!!!
that is the most ridiculous and stupid thing i've read on this blog.......and i've read quite a few
meredith whitney has been saying the same thing about banks/brokers for at least 6months now.........pre market, during market, post market....i've seen dozens of tv appearances by her
can she not have an opinion ?? maybe she is right ...maybe she is wrong ( the stock prices tellin me she is right so far)
why does someone who has a different opinion than the Bman automatically have 'nefarious' purposes??
meredith whitney's goal is 100000% identical to mine or the Bman's
she wants to make money in the market....that's it....period
this nonsense about the 1920's is so silly.....it was comical at first..........now it's just downright annoying
PS.....i think the Bman may need some sort of therapy ......i think there is something seriously wrong with his brain
american banks are a sham
their balance sheets are a house of cards
their income statements are a ponzi scheme
armageddon is coming !!!!!!!!
Permabulls like vince farrell and larry kudlow and the Bman are feeling quite 'manque' these days.
not sure if that works
defaltion might occur sometime as teh US trade deficit is eliminated. That flow of dollars overseas was creating a monetary base to the growth of the world money supply. I wrote about that last year based on an observation by Bill Gross.
But it depends on wha tother central banks do - they can fill the void. But will they recognize it and react in time ?
This is a slow process - US still has a trade deficit, but it's a lot smaller now and mostly oil related.
I wrote yesterday that I wonder if the oil experters are withholding funds from the world banking systemand exacerbating the credit market problems in Europe.
Such withholding could cause defaltionary problems over time.
good quarter from TMA....they only lost $20.64 a share....lmaoooooooooo
hmmm it's an adjective ..."the outlook manque of Kudlow someday might happily cause his contract to be cancelled."
opinions are fine .. but the timing ... coordinated broadcast of those with beefer clients, like the GS analysts do, is manipulation.
Plenty of examples exist from the 1920s. I just recognize the pattern: wait for some weakness, then shriek on babbblevison near the close.
She did that once before. From memory it was a good buying point.
If she was honest, why not just tell her clients. That's how she makes money - generating commissions for her firm. Why shriek in public ... near the close ?
Of course, it could also be self-aggrandizement - hubris.
Bud, you need to be more skeptical.
Have you ever lost at 3-card Monte ?
hehe .. but I do try to be a bit provocative ... make people think ... too many just accept every blab as innnocent ;-)
The entire 20th century is an example of that. The west for decades tried to read intentions in Stalinism and his successors as "innocent". They were completely wrong and prolonged the pain ... until Reagan spoke the truth.
For global money supply post, see February 7, 2007.
good retail sales.
jobless claims OK, not great.
is byron wien also coordinating with GS and meredith whitney and his beefer clients??
"inflation, stagflation, recession "
1920s type manipulation indeed
Byron Wien is just a perma-bear and has been one for 20 years.
One has to suspect and look for manipulation in the sensitive areas and times when it's profitable.
apparently byron wien was waiting for a strong open....and then start....uh..... shrieking
"get on cnbc now.....and knock those futures down byron"
lmaooooooooooooooooooooooo
wow Callen out. LEH looks like history. Who will buy it ?
The old school invetment banking is excellent, the rest ... dead.
major assets at LEH walk out the door every evening ... gotta think the best are getting offers
WSJ: "The approval of a draft treaty by central-bank governors from five Gulf nations this week marks a critical step toward creating a single currency in the Persian Gulf, a regional monetary official said."
Interesting ... connects to my observation about petrodollars.
guy on bloomberg...."financials have been stabilizing here"
what mkt has he been watching?
lost power ... on generator now.
MLF59 thursday before ops expo misdirection day...right on schedule...the uptick rule cuts both ways as pile on, close at the low, doulbe down bears get the hammer this morning....free markets at work indeed.
'generator now'
working man indeed
ops expo
here we go again
I'm prepard for armageddon, Bud ... you should be congratulating me ;-)
well played per usual frosty...Cooper would be proud....
'3G iphone'
pffffffffffffffffffffffffft
uh Bud...for your narrow minded ready pleasure.
I read with great interest the latest report from Elliott Wave International. I know there are varying degrees of skepticism about EWT, but I find it fascinating, and the reports from this firm are well-articulated. Some of the highlights from their latest report postulate that:
We've got about 8 years of general bear market (both commodities and equities) ahead of us, with an "idea" bottom for commodities in 2013, for stocks (in nominal terms) 2014, and for stocks (in real dollar terms) in 2016.
In those eight years, they project an economic slump more substantial than the Great Depression (I imagine people, other that aazzzholes from south florida, would take great issue with this point in particular).
The crude oil market is in the midst of its final swing up, with a projected ultimate high between $160 and $189 per barrel.
In the broadest terms, the notion of a bear market until about 2014 is the primary theme. The next mega bull to begin 2015.
phil goin with the tight sblack shirt today
showin off the pistols....uh....guns
the problem with Elliott Wave - I subscribed the entire 1980s - it workded great until Prechter called the big 1987 crash.
For years after that he was a complete bear - totally wrong for a long time, from memory.
phil weighing in at 185 per the media guide, my friend told me...
is that lbs?
Hmmm.. now Morgan Stanley is reading this blog to get ideas.
Babblevision said they came out with sell energies, buy financials this AM.
lol better be, mfl ... 185 kg is 407 lbs. ;-)
He'd dent the greeens
Bunky..so wave is, well, bunk...or conditions may have alinged, perhaps it is viable again.
MS omg our stock is at a 5 yr low...what a break, our independent reasrch group just called a mass rotation from what works to what sucks...that was a close call, cake in the breakroom at noon, we are back baby...taking whitney coby style indeed.
the bears did their job and ran for cover this morning...where are those pesky real buyers...on the chopper for a long weekend I guess...Bunky must be busy yelling orders at the servants that swarm the grounds preparing the bunky memorial library...I did notice he popped for the full case, not the half rack, no way of knowing what made it's way out to the common man.
MS or MER will be the new 'LEH'
armageddon gettin closer
PS....any 'ops expo' trades frsoty??
"servants that swarm the grounds"
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooo
"ops expo"...you must be a moron...if someone thinks they can game ops expo, I'll tell you they are an idiot...there is no connection to the movement of stock prices...this is an impossbile tape, no way to gain an edge...that will be 6k, have a nice day.
AAPL has traded 3x open interest near 175...think we established the pivot point for the next week of trading.
touch em all frosty. that was funny!
was working in the renovated barn with my hands ... like the common man.
servants ? uh ... nfw. I'm a recluse.
back to the barn.
'6k'
lmaooooooooooooooooo
frosty goin for backtoback player of the week
"is this stagflation?"
that was for you mern....
gosh, I thought my low inflation + deflation anecdotes have convinced him there is no inflation, just higher oil prices.
Don't my anecdotes trump his ?
;-))
By David E. Williams
CNN
(CNN) -- iReporter James Holler is the first to admit that he drives a gas-guzzler -- in fact, he has two of them.
Kim Davis says she gets tired of the glares she gets from Prius owners.
1 of 3 The Houston, Texas, businessman spends about $75 a week to fill up his 2004 Ford Expedition and another $80 on premium gas for his 2001 Jaguar XJ8.
But instead of being a drain on his wallet, the soaring price of gas has been a financial windfall.
"There's good business in it," Holler told CNN. "They're older models, but because everyone's dumping their vehicles you can't beat the price on them."
Holler paid thousands less than the cars' blue book values and also saves on insurance because they're older cars, he said.
One of his friends bought a Toyota Camry hybrid and is saving about $300 a month on gas, but has a $600 a month car payment, he said.
Holler also is making money off of the SUV glut by buying vehicles at cut rate prices and selling them to people in Central and South America, where gas is cheap and big trucks are in high demand.
"I'm snatching them up as fast as I can," he said.
Don't Miss
iReport.com: Sticker shock at the pump
CNN/Money: Gas hits $4.04 a gallon
iReporters going carless
He says he just bought a pair of 2007 Ford F150s for $9,000 each and he's selling them for $18,000 each. It costs him about $2,200 to ship a vehicle out of the country, which leaves him with a tidy profit.
We asked CNN.com users why they were hanging on to their trucks, vans and SUVs in the face of record oil prices and $4 per gallon gasoline. We heard from hundreds of people, who love their big rigs, or would love to get rid of them. iReport.com: Still driving a gas guzzler?
iReporter Scott Edstrom, of Grand Ledge, Michigan, says he's pretty much stuck with his Chevrolet TrailBlazer because he's "upside down big time."
"I know what I owe on it and I know what they're going for -- significantly lower than what I owe -- so I haven't even attempted to sell it because I know I can't," Edstrom said.
The network IT analyst said gas prices have doubled since he bought the car in 2005 and that he's paying about $100 a week to fill up.
"I've run out money before I've run out of month several months in a row now," Edstrom said. "It's been a struggle to get by."
Kim Davis, a Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, software product manager, tried to sell her Land Rover Discovery two years ago, but didn't get a single offer.
Davis is glad she held onto it now, because she said she is only about $1,000 away from paying it off. She said it costs about $70-$85 to fill up.
"I make enough money to drive my car, $4 [for gasoline] isn't going to kill me per se, it's the principle that the United States doesn't have any control of prices," she said. "It seems like things are going out of control."
common folk r just total idiots!
dont they know the core is within a comfort range. and the PCE deflator is cool and the gang.
this been my thesis since late 2003. deflation for crap we have and dont need, ie DVD's, computers, tvs, etc.
killer inflation for stuff we have to have. food, energy, healthcare.
i was totally right, but really didnt figure out how to profit from it.
so that makes me a total MORON!
:-(
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