Yesterday the question of the prospect for the Fed's raising rates was asked in the comments [click on "Comments" below each day's blog]. A Reader adduced the probabilities for hikes in the Federal Funds rate to suggest an increase in the fall by a bit. Those probabilities are determined by traders and beefers, so can be dominated by fear and greed, and were quite wrong just recently in forecasting rates below 2%. If they were wrong just recently, why should I believe then now ?
But then I thought about the question and what would make the Fed raise rates. Inflation is near the comfort zone and likely to fall in the near future. The 2% overnight rate equals the 2% upper band of the comfort zone and is a bit below the 2.2% core PCE year over year rate of inflation. A neutral federal funds rate would now be 2.5% as the overnight rate should be a bit over a short term Treasury bill rate, which in turn should approximately equal to the core rate of inflation in equilibrium. So the decision depends on the economy. When the economy bottoms, the Fed will be able to raise rates to neutral.
Data will lag the real economy by about three months. So what are the prospects for the economy ?
Bunkerman wrote a few months ago that the housing market will bottom in the late Spring. That means June. Housing has gone down enough to entice buyers and the price bubble from 2004-2006 is gone. Many homes are affordable now. Some areas have oversupply [sun & surf areas], so will take awhile to work off that inventory. But I think the housing market has btoomed in June, or is bottoming now. Data will appear in August.
The economy is bottoming now, in my humble opinion. That means the Fed can raise rates to neutral this fall, perhaps in September, to the neutral zone of 2.25 to 2.5%. That's when I think the Fed will raise. Hmmm .... mirabile dictu ! That agrees with the fed funds market estimates.
So I need a buy list for stocks. While traveling, that is tough to compile. And I have new money coming in soon, so must figure out what to buy. I'll try to put a list together next week when I return.
PS: I shift my base of operations this evening, so might lose my Internet. If so I won't be able to post Thursday. I plan to drive home on Friday, so can't post Friday.
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I just read that Brian Sullivan from bloomberg went to Fox....I was wondering what happened to him...easily the best anchor on babblevision...Bud I know you liked that dude as well
Bloomberg = Blabberg
Babblevision = CNBC
;-)
Bunkerman is David Einhorn a beefer?
ya brian sulllivan is on fox now......my second favorite host after my boy...... sean hannitty!!!
PS.......has frosty come out of the closet yet?
There is NOTHING wrong with this economy that $65 oil won’t fix. It will put $500Bn back into the hands of US consumers, knock $500Bn off our trade imbalance, add $1.5Tn of spending power to global consumers and those numbers DOUBLE if other commodities follow suit and fall back to "normal" levels. "If regulators took the step of increasing cash requirements on oil futures contracts from the current 7.5 percent to 25 percent or more, oil prices would collapse" Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs Investment Research Charles Biderman told The Washington Times.
A combination of cheap money and lax regulation has driven the price of oil to these heights, while increased global demand has played a part in oil price hikes, oil companies have estimated profit-oriented speculation in oil futures has doubled the price of oil above where market dynamics would have it, the Times reported. Congress is doing their part to rein in speculation, now it’s time for the Fed to take away the punch bowl and send these drunken bastards home in a taxi!
re Einhorn: don't know how big his fund. Gotta be $100 million to be a beefer (am going back to my old standard)
I think kicking he pension funds out of futures is needed, too.
but I guess those people read this blog, too.
lol, "viewfromthebunker" as the opinion leder !
;-)
Bunkerman...why can't we post pictures, charts or links in the comment section of this blog...we need some bells and whistles...drop a couple turnips for some upgrades if you must.
also let commercial hedgers owning physical oil have low margin req.
Street and swaps people - high maring like speculaotors.
I don't know how to do that, frosty. $$$ is no problem, but I need to learn what to do. Maybe I just choose some options ...
Heck, I don't even know how to post pictures in my own posts ... wish I did
"You know how I be. Last week Kobe couldn't do without me. i am the difference between first and last place."
"Kobe [expletive], tell me how my [expletive] tastes."
"I'm a horse. Kobe ratted me out. That's why I'm getting divorced. that 'cause my name's Shaquille. I love 'em, I don't leave 'em. I got a vasectomy, now I can't breed 'em."
what a freestyling machine. but is it freestying when you are using a teleprompter?
rofl, SHAQ for president!
i have decided who i am voting for.
in honor of richard pryor i will write in NONE OF THE ABOVE!
is there a noneoftheabove.com?
maybe i shud start that site up.
In 2004, Bryant, while embroiled in a rape investigation, alleged that O'Neal paid up to $1 million in hush money to various women. O'Neal told ESPN then: "This whole situation is ridiculous."
Whose corner are you in?
Kobe Bryant
Shaquille O'Neal
Leave me alone; I don't care
After repeating the chorus a number of times on Sunday night, O'Neal ended his rap by singing, " Kobe, you can't do without me" over and over.
Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM): RBC Capital cuts Q2 ests on Bold delay
RBC Capital is out with a somewhat cautious call on Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) saying new data points suggest AT&T may launch the 3G Blackberry Bold mid-Aug, a 2-3 week delay to their prior launch estimate, as it continues to stabilize the device on its HSPA network. Rogers appears on track for July launch, and other carriers (Vodafone, DoCoMo, TIM, O2, others) are still expected later in August.
Revised Q2 Guidance. As discussed in their Q1 preview, Q2 guidance is highly sensitive to Bold launch timing; RBC est Q2 guidance becomes $2.5-$2.6B rev and $0.91-0.94 EPS (vs. prior est for $2.6-2.7B and $0.94-0.97).
According to RBC this development mirrors early stability issues RIM faced with UMTS, EV-DO, EDGE networks, including a Nov 2005 delay with the Blackberry 8700 on AT&T, subsequently resolved by RIM to maintain its hallmark battery life user/experience. 3G is significantly more power consumptive than 2.5G (higher processing demands); and the Bold also uses a new Operating System (v4.6) and a new Marvell 624MHz processor/chipset.
Given street expectations for a late July/early Aug Bold launch, and with valuation at 36x conc. FTM P/E, news of the delay may offer near-term valuation volatility; firm's view any interim price weakness as an opportunity for longer-term investors to accumulate the shares. This delay does not affect their longer-term thesis.
Mike Abramsky the ax out ahead of earnigs...RIMM supported last week by the 140 strike, now resistance ahead of their report...dark ahead of earnings very tempting.
Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM): RBC Capital cuts Q2 ests on Bold delay
RBC Capital is out with a somewhat cautious call on Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) saying new data points suggest AT&T may launch the 3G Blackberry Bold mid-Aug, a 2-3 week delay to their prior launch estimate, as it continues to stabilize the device on its HSPA network. Rogers appears on track for July launch, and other carriers (Vodafone, DoCoMo, TIM, O2, others) are still expected later in August.
Revised Q2 Guidance. As discussed in their Q1 preview, Q2 guidance is highly sensitive to Bold launch timing; RBC est Q2 guidance becomes $2.5-$2.6B rev and $0.91-0.94 EPS (vs. prior est for $2.6-2.7B and $0.94-0.97).
According to RBC this development mirrors early stability issues RIM faced with UMTS, EV-DO, EDGE networks, including a Nov 2005 delay with the Blackberry 8700 on AT&T, subsequently resolved by RIM to maintain its hallmark battery life user/experience. 3G is significantly more power consumptive than 2.5G (higher processing demands); and the Bold also uses a new Operating System (v4.6) and a new Marvell 624MHz processor/chipset.
Given street expectations for a late July/early Aug Bold launch, and with valuation at 36x conc. FTM P/E, news of the delay may offer near-term valuation volatility; firm's view any interim price weakness as an opportunity for longer-term investors to accumulate the shares. This delay does not affect their longer-term thesis.
Mike Abramsky the ax out ahead of earnigs...RIMM supported last week by the 140 strike, now resistance ahead of their report...dark ahead of earnings very tempting.
frsoty enuff with these ultra-long posts
just give us the f'ng link !!!
you sir are not the boss of me...HA...my lawyer will be in touch...SOMEONE IN BIG TROUBLE and it ain't me.
ouch baby
very very ouch
i made pee pee with my bum.
:-(
May I have your attention please. Mr. Hunter has brought it to my attention that morale may be a bit low. That you may be a bit…on edge. So I suggest this. Any crew member who feels he can't handle the situation can leave the ship right now! Gentlemen, we're at DEFCON three, war is imminent. This is the captain, that is all."
-Capt Frank Ramsey, USS Alabama
bud, do u think that is bobs fave movie of all time?
denzel in a uni.
hackmen at his best.
a boat full of ripped sailors and no women.
tappa tappa tappa
Dear Sal,
I made a promise to you, and I intend to keep it.
I told you that if you stood up for me, I would always stand up for you. You did more for me than I could have ever imagined, and I'm going to keep my end of the bargain and keep fighting for what we believe in -- in the Senate and on the campaign trail, helping to elect a new Democratic president and a bigger Democratic majority in Congress.
That relationship will endure thanks to the remarkable journey you and I have shared. But there's something else -- less endearing and I hope less enduring -- that our campaign has left behind: our substantial campaign debt.
I'm so grateful for all you've done for me -- all the ways you have given your time, energy, and financial resources. But today I am asking once again for your help ridding our campaign of debt so we can keep fighting together.
Contribute today to help us reduce our campaign debt.
As you know, I had to loan money to my campaign at critical moments. I'm not asking for anyone's help to pay that back. That was my investment and my commitment because I believe so deeply in our cause.
But I do need your help paying the debts we accrued to others over the course of this campaign. We put everything we had into winning this race, and we came just about as close as you can.
I will never regret the energy, effort, and passion we put into one of the closest and most expensive primary contests in history. But I need your help to move on to the next phase of our journey together.
Your contribution today will help us pay down our campaign debt.
You've done so much for me over the past 17 months, and I can never thank you enough. But I hope you know how much I appreciate everything you put into our campaign.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
P.S. Everywhere I go, people tell me what a big difference our campaign has made in their lives. Let's keep working together throughout 2008 and beyond to advance the causes we believe in and to advocate alongside people whose voices need to be heard.
i luv you Hillary.....and she wants me to help her with the campaign debt
ok....i'll do it...i'll send her a few 100bux
but i'm not sure i'm allowed to.....i already gave her 2300 bux....so i maxed out for the primary election
can i send her more legally?? Bman do you know
from what i read, u already gave her the max.
i think she can use a few tax losses anyway.
anyone who can trade futs like her, needs a 12 million dollar write down.
NONE OF THE ABOVE!
legal..ppffttt...checked my hcp yhoo today, back up to a 7...lil'dis lil'dat...back to a 5... adjusting the virtual swing plain indeed.
Don't know, Bud. I doubt it.
2300 is the max, unless they go on to the general election AND don't take public financing $, then 2300 more.
Obama is a knave ... maybe he'll figure out a way with some laundering.
maybe you can give money to her Senate campaign and she can divert it ... just a guess
just a couple vritual spike marks on the greens from a 4hcp...need to check the rules.
the federal open market commitee voted today to keep rates unchanged.
over the last few months the economy has continued to grow, albeit at a subued pace. We feel dropping rates 325 bps in a few months is and was necessary to protect the economy from going into recession.
with that said, inflationary pressure remain higher than we expected, but we expect inflation to roll over any day.
the risks between economic growth and inflation are about even, so we see no reason to change fed policy at this time.
we will talk a very tough game on inflation, but the reality is there is nothing we can do about it, so we will try to prop up the asset portion of the USA economy since it is the part of the economy that still has a shot.
there was 1 dissenter, fisher wanted to raise rates 250 bps.
NONE OF THE ABOVE!
Im sure she'd take skim $$$.....lol
waiting on Ben while I enjoy my vast boy george collection.,.tap tap tap.
Fed Statement:
We read a fine blog recently and decided (A) leave rates unchanged, (B) as the economy is recovering and bottoming, (C) we may need to raise rates a bit in the fall to go to a more neutral policy. Further, we voted unanimously to to delegate all our powers to Bunkerman for the summer and go on vacation to Nantucket, etc.
boy george collection........i knew it !!!!
why doesn't frosty just come out of the closet and get it over with
what a queer !!!!
my yhoo handicap index 15.4......i lost some of my scores in the high80s and replaced them with a couple C-notes
Bunkey you have the Ben grade book with you...where we at C-?
well u gotta have faith
actually a pretty decent song
mush mush mush...gotta get crude green by the close....lmaoooo
I think his minor cut to 2% in the face of strong opposition, plus continued liquidity supply in thje face of griping, got him to straight C.
But he's in danger of going to C- or D+ if the monetary base doesn't get to 2% yoy growth soon. I'm giving some slack due to the new programs .. might be distorting a bit.
That was a good statement - he's got a solid C now ... but the monatary base probation is still in effect.
Enjoy Nantucket, Ben ... or is it the Vinetard ?
The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year.
they been saying this every six weeks for almost 18 months.
one of these times, they will be right.
they will be right once oil stops going up.
However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.
DUH, DO YOU THINK SO?
supreme court another swing and miss.
NONE OF THE ABOVE!
"You see this watch....this watch cost more than your car.....you see mister, you drove a hyundai to get here tonight, I drove an $80k BMW....I made $970k last year...How much did you make?"
"The leads are weak? the fkkn leads are weak....Youre weak"
usa govt predict oil usuage to go up 50% by now and 2030.
their 2030 price target is 186 dollars a barrel.
who the hell comes up with this stuff?
22 yrs from now? really?
186 this yr is doable
like mr pickens says, its pretty simple really. world uses 87 million barrels a day and that is rising. we produce 85 million barrels a day and the quality of that oil is on the decline.
when demand is greater than supply, prices go up.
but if oil dont stay up here, DC never gonna start making nuke plants.
i am just so glad these past yrs and energy guy from texas been running the game. imagine if we didnt have an ex ceo of an oil company as president and VP. man oil wud be 600 bucks by now.
piss, piss, piss coming out of my ass!
Stop the presses...
Mike Holland is bullish!!!!
he's a real buyer
and a clown
billy bear to run for the senate.
can reggie hamond be far behind?
frosty, meet me a bromens, down by the fillmore.
"look it 10 oclock by 1010 i want to be in some flesh"
"WHAT R U ASKING ME?"
"SOME sex, some mogumbo, i need to get laid or i am gonna bust"
"you cant ask me any better than that?"
"oh, i dont have any money, can u pay for the room, too?"
Auctioner: Our first item is a pair of panties confiscated from a prostitute.
SAL: Fifty bucks.
Auctioner: She had nine STDs.
SAL: Forty-five bucks.
Auctioner: And when we caught her she wet herself.
SAL: Fifty bucks.
SAL: God this itches! I wonder who I got it from. Probably that skank that I gave a ride to the gas station. Last time I do someone a favor.
Brooke: Sal, will you accept this rose?
Sal: Really? After I drugged you and had sex with your unconscious body?
Brooke: What?
Sal: Yes.
metropolitans run into a buzzsaw...team hitting about the mendoza line coming in...bitter willie must have posted signgs on the net...nose, whipe left sleeve, pull right ear, fastball coming.
is this stagflation?
the action the last two days in the final hour is a tell.
its telling the longs to eject, goto cash, and rethink.
i just send another 50k to my muni guy.
guess that new car can wait another 5 yrs.
"Oil prices are about supply and demand, not speculation. Speculation does not drive prices higher, because speculators take both sides". -- Warren Buffet, 6/25/08
does warren buffett read this blog?
"I am genuinely concerned about the prospects for stagflation"
``We're right in the middle of it right now,'' said Buffett, chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. ``I think the `flation' part will heat up and I think the `stag' part will get worse.''
Buffett, the world's richest person, runs a company with a $72 billion stock portfolio and businesses ranging from candy to corporate jet leasing and insurance. He's said the U.S. housing slump has been a drag on Berkshire's earnings, adding today he's unsure when the economy will recover.
``It's not going to be tomorrow, it's not going to be next month, and may not even be next year,'' said Buffett, 77.
what did he say in 2000?
stock market be ranged bound all decade, and deriviatives were financial WMD's.
ALL RIGHTY THEN, he is pretty gud, at understanding this stuff.
BUFFET FOR PRESIDENT
JESSE VENTURA FOR VP
T BOONE ENERGY CZAR
Warren Buffett says inflation in the U.S. is "exploding" and he urged the Federal Reserve not to signal in any way that controlling prices is a secondary goal to encouraging economic growth.| "Inflation is really picking up.| Whether it's steel or oil, we see it everyplace," Buffett said of rising prices.
exploding, everyplace???????
he must not have a bunker.
what a piker!
Lennar Corp., one of the nation's largest homebuilders, reported Thursday that second-quarter losses narrowed, but said the housing market will most likely deteriorate even further this year.
I'm putting my gold $1000 hat back on.....
been wearing my stagger lee cap for almost 2 yrs.
a yr too early.
crap
GM is 11 bucks.
wow when did that happen?
nice call on the darkside of rimmer, frosty.
s&p hits 1250 its officially a bear market.
will that happen today. gut says yes.
feel like dow ends up down over 500 today
Bunkerman...ken lewis holding the k-bar to the throat of the skim...below 25 sir...chop chop.
mrs bunk rolling out the razor wire and oiling the quad 50 cal :)
But oil is a bubble that's going to pop soon, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, which has nearly $500 billion of assets under management.
rofl, so many saying this.
only buffett and gross have the balls to say stagger lee.
oil aint going lower!
my old partner whose biggest positions are NXXI, PAE, & APII is short the USO.
as u can see he is fine analyst
;-)
Bud I don't blame you for the bitter attitude, I blame your boy scout leader.
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ooppss...sorry...the link
http://store.healthyandactive.com/ve801.html?gclid=CNbD0uDYkpQCFSUaagodZiP3tg
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/crime/2008/06/26/dnt.wa.uhaul.watered.gas.komo
inflation is under control.
be careful with the anal beads. i used to have a set.
one nite, at band camp, i used them (on the worden, not me!)and when i was finished cud not find them. didnt think much of it, and went to sleep.
the next morning i found them.
i was walking my dog, and she pooped them out, whole.
i wonder if she came, on the backside of that transaction?
LOOOOOOOOL!
uh that was Bud's pitch...but one hell of a swing.
i have a story from sunday that is so funny but totally whack.
lets see how can i say this.
i was at my watering hole watching italy/spain.
ended up drinking many many peronis to get a Italy shirt from the owner. well one thing leads to another. next thing i know i am going home with this guy in my car. i have known him about a yr and we get along real well (or did). his wife followed us back to my house, so she knew where he was and he was going to call her when the match was over.
so we went in. i think he did 1 maybe 2 binkers, then he sat down. he is like 50 yrs old, god knows how long since he partook in a greenfest.
i fed my dogs and let them out.
he was alone for 5 minutes. when i came back into the living room i cud tell something was very very wrong.
he was so tweaked and kept asking me what i gave him? i was like WTF r u talking about, we r friends, etc.
"i need to go outside"
"ok"
opened the door. he went outside. my back yard has a tall fence all the way around. he was gone in 10 seconds.
i go out my front door and he is about 4 houses down. i walked up to him and tried to talk to him.
he was like 'just stay the fuck away from me. i dont know what u did to me........ but just stay away!"
this is broad day light, so i saw him on his cell, figured he called his wife and that was it.
NOPE!
he walked around the development until he got arrested. the cops took him home, he told the cops i slipped him LSD.
he then was rushed to the hospital, where his blood pressure, i swear to god was about 300 over 200 and docs were stunned he did not have a stroke.
he still maintains i slipped him LSD, although i have no idea to get it and have not done it since red rocks 2004.
he had the mother of all panic attacks but he wont believe it.
i sorta feel bad, but i know he pestered me to come with me, thats according to the bartender.
300 over 200, i did not know that was possible without dying.
WTF?????
But short playing has become much easier and less risky with the onslaught of ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, that have flooded the market over the past 10 years. ETFs work much the same way as mutual funds but offer greater trading flexibility and lower costs.
Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors, has been using ETFs heavily to short the market recently and has realized 20 percent gains over the past few weeks. ProShares is a leader in not only long-play sector-based ETFs but also ones that short the market and offer double the return on downward index movements.
hmmmmmmmmm cnbc says shorting is the way to go now?
lol, the market just went down 20% and now they suggest getting short.
al michaels on squawk tommorrow?
just reread mr buffett.
he controls many companys across all different verticals.
for him to be singing stagger lee that loudly is even stunning to me.
how bad can this get?
well i am not allowed to short anything. shorting is not allowed at the mother ship.
i think stocks may rally if the fed raises rates over the weekend or monday.
looked at a chart of the S&P since 1950. it sure didnt look this bad in the 70's, that chart looks so bad, a little bit of pee came out when i saw it.
Dont goto merny's house!!!!!
Arentcha going to drink up your tea HARR???(fulla turbo lax)LMAOOOOOOO
Mern did your "friend" have a blackberry as well as a cell phone? If so I see no evidence of a recession....
it wud be funny story except the guys life is all but ruined.
at least everyone i have spoken with, including his son, believes me.
but the backside of that, is everyone thinks this guy is an idiot.
he lost his job a few weeks ago, which i didnt know until last nite.
what a train wreck!
is this a bear market?
slipped me a mickey...shaved my sack...awoke with beads hanging out my wazzzzooooooo.
not my fault...never is, never will be...god hates me.
come on frosty.
how about some new material?
the upside to having a dog like cherise is on those mornings when you r puking in the toilet and a little shit dribbles down your leg onto the floor, she cleans it for u.
u never seen a bathroom floor sparkle like that.
and when im done with the worden and she is still wearing the money shot, many times cherise will get to that before the worden knows what is going on.
LOL!
Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton swapped compliments and cheek kisses today in Unity, New Hampshire on their mission to create Democratic harmony. They admired one another's tenacity, campaign-running and commitment. Clinton praised her ex-rival's grit. Obama repeated the need America, and the party, have for Clinton and her husband.
on SNAP, obama smooching on sals girl.
imo, market not only pricing in stagger lee but pricing in an obama victory, which obviously aint gud for stocks.
glad i am not involved in the stock market!
BILLIONAIRE investor Warren Buffett said today the United States was experiencing "exploding" inflation amid a slowing economy.
The chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway said the world’s biggest economy was in the middle of a period of stagflation and it might get worse.
"I think we are in the middle of it," he told Bloomberg TV, adding he's uncertain when that will end, "maybe not even next year."
He told the Fox Business Network the US was experiencing "exploding" inflation, matched with an economy slowing at an even more pronounced rate and a jobless rate likely to go higher.
In an interview with CNBC, Mr Buffett also said the Federal Reserve had to balance its dual role of controlling inflation while promoting growth.
Speaking just hours before the Fed announced it had kept interest rates steady at 2 per cent for the first time since last year and issued its policy statement, Mr Buffett called on the central bank to prioritise responses to rising prices and the "weakening" economy.
He also said the reasons for soaring oil prices were largely supply and demand, not speculation.
soooooooooooooooo mister buffett is totally wrong?
he lives in Nebraska, and probably has a better view of the USA economy than anyone in the world. so he joins bill gross, the creator of the inflation models, santelli and myself in the stagger lee thesis (plus the stock market, i guess).
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شركة تسليك مجاري
شركة صيانة افران
شركة جلي بلاط
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