In the latter half of the 19th century, the Sear Roebuck catalog opened up the distant rural US to the world. Innumerable products could be ordered at a fixed price and delivered to small towns or farms. The great movie, "The Music Man" has memorable scene where the townspeople in Iowa are so excited by the arrival of the Wells Fargo wagon delivering ordered goods.
So now, the Internet has opened up the whole world - the developing world - to the innumerable goods and services of the developed world. No wholesaler, no middleman taking an undetermined, but large, "trading profit".
What happened in the last half of the 19th century ? A huge boom lasting decades occurred. Crises occurred , as the railroads were overbuilt and had short term problems. The technology crash in the period 2000-2003 should be viewed with this background. After the 19th century railroad busts, the economy came roaring back. New energy sources such as electricty and oil replaced the old ones of wood and whale oil.
Housing was overbuilt by speculative demand. That has ended. Exubia is being repriced to reflect the cost of commutes and heating or cooling that McMansion. Central cities and small towns where transportation costs are less will do fine using the Internet and efficient deliveries to thrive.
Bunkerman's world view sees renewed, strong growth "second phase" to this economic boom. The risks are really political disruptions and wars caused by the ruling classes. Will they mess up the world to retain their power ? I think the talk of the ECB rasing rates reflects this desire to retain power. The already wealthy want to grind "inflation" out of the common man. Does any of their talk reflect the needs of the common worker in Europe ? No. This is a big risk to a united Europe, already reeeling from the Irish "NO" vote.
Similarly Obama wants to raise taxes on those working to earn more income, not on the tax free wealth of his ruling class supporters. Can he deceive the common man ? Time will tell.
I don't think one rate bump will be decisive, but this bears watching.
[by the way, "second phase" is a rugby term, for a renewed offense after a tackle.]
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42 comments:
hmm looks like Bud got a job as RBS as an "armageddon" seer.
;-)
i checked the site yesterday....and what did i read
more silly and stupid and comical 'no inflation' talk
why do you guys even get into this debate with the Bman??
i have no interest in partiticpating
if you guys post something interesting or entertaining.....i will join the discussion
no 'word of the day' ???
now that i like alot
"i don't have my dictionary and regular reading material"
pffffffffffffffffffft
no job Bman
but seems like the analyst at RBS reads this blog
i wasn't able to check the blog late in the day yday
has frosty come out of the closet yet??
that was a NBA final?
that series was not well played, especially by the lakers.
they didnt even attempt to man up last night.
lakers had ZERO offensive rebounds in the first half
offensive boards are all about toughness
lakers a bunch of hollywood faggots
so the FDX #'s dont add mo to the stagger lee thesis?
isnt that how much of the new sears catalogue stuff gets sent becuase of the internet?
although hating the celtics always nice to see guys like garnett and allen get a ring.
garnett broke down in front of tafoya. i never seen anyone so happy.
that was cool.
WB...triple load time...is this a bottom.
is WB a 'ops expo' trade???
pfffffffffffffft
"whale oil"...who needs whales when the common man dies from higher energy...whale hunting should start anew...die whales die...let's go fishing.
Fed Ex hurts as email replaces most overnight deliveries
ok ill go down the rabbit hole.
mlk lows of 11500. then the fed drops rates like never before. we rallied back to 13k.
now we back down to 12k. the fins making new lows.
y is this happening? this isnt the market pricing in stagger lee by contracting it pe ratio?
if truly a mid cycle slow down, shud we be testing the lows of 6 months ago? shud the market be down pretty badly over the last 12 months. if this is a mid cycle slowdown shudnt have all this been priced in by now?
i seem to remember, in theory, the worst time to own stocks is when inflation is high and growth is sub par. CPI 4%, growth about 1%, for the last 8 months. how many more months does this have to persist before it is officially stagflation?
The subject of this breathless coverage is Lenny Dykstra, a former New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies outfielder who claims a 90%-plus return picking stocks each of the last three years.
sutty and nails, so what? i can tell u one thing, nails was up about 10% (which actually shocked me, that he was up at all) in his options account at do we rob cheat em and how.
imagine that cramer associated with a crook. spitzer, now nails. when is jjc gonna get his?
sheesh ... emptying a house is a huge job. One cannot believe how much stuff is accumulated.
Going well, though, with friends & relatives help..
WASHINGTON, June 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Senate leaders have agreed to a bipartisan bill to establish a $300 billion rescue fund for troubled mortgages and a new regulator for Fannie Mae, lawmakers said on Tuesday.
The legislation was expected to be considered by the full Senate within days, with lawmakers keen to deliver a final bill to President George W. Bush by July 4.
cleaning a house with 50 yrs of stuff is about one of the most draining things i can think of.
tiger out for the year
Your mom's house in danger of flooding Bunk?
WB now up over 7% off the low...fine trade Bunky...Bud ppfffttt...hey mern, any openings at JPM...LMAOOOOOOOOO
looking at what dimon said about the size of the hamburgers in the cafeteria............. u figure the rest out.
so tiger played 91 holes on a broken leg. (and he broke it 2 weeks ago and knew it, and still played.)
most impressive athletic accomplishment since the miracle on ice?
discuss
golf is not a sport...
Gentlemen
Only
Ladies
Forbidden
i am lennys brother, i have been trying for years to tell the public what a phony and fraud lenny is. lenny uses high priced lawyers to scare people, and get what he wants. i even told the mitchell report about lennys drug and steroid abuse in baseball. nobody seems to want to hear the truth about this greedy scum bag who has turned on his whole family over money. i have all kinds of stories about this pathalogical liar. his brain is fried from all the drugs over the years, and that is the TRUTH
for some crazy reason i believe this guy.
no, it's on a hill - good position ;-) Had to sell Mom's house - too risky to keep anymore after Christmas pipe freezing disaster. Completely repaired now. A friend is buying it.
But all must go except personal items, mementos, etc.
Giving everything away to relatives,k friends, etc., who are helping me clear it out.
your a good son Bunkerman...momma bunky a lucky gal.
dow close below 12k?
i vote Y
http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/columns/story?id=3450723
dude i cant believe this tiger story.
he is the best ever, by a country mile, sorry jack.
High gas prices have led me to change my:
Commute 3%
Shopping routine 7%
Travel and leisure activities 20%
All of the above 70%
Total responses to this question: 19426
i didnt respond to this question becuase my driving habits havent changed and wont change unless it goes to about 20 bucks a gallon. i guess about 70% of america is in the crapper becuase if gas going from 2 to 4 bucks defines how u live, well again, u r in the crapper. seriously even for a hummer u r spending an extra 125 bucks a week, so what?
really shows how the avg american is leveraged beyond help.
They've been banished to remote stretches of desert, some have been raided, others shut down and one even sold on E-bay. Nevada's legal brothels have managed to survive through some tough situations. Their latest problem, however, could prove to be too much. According to George Flint, Director of the Nevada Brothel Owners' Association, revenue for the 25 businesses in his membership organization is down by as much as 45 percent, lower prices effect profit ratios.
Bud still charge a nickle for a lap dance.
inflation...ppfftt
beefers can make Dow close anywhere they wish.
if you think multiples contract in periods of "inflation" of this level, check the PEs in the mid-1960s.
1970s had many problems, including survival of the free word led by that Obama ideological ancestor, Carter and the fool Ford.
the worlds oldest profession in recession?
well check out cnn.com
senior citizen porn in japan is climbing fast!
thats hot!
38% of japaneese couples over 50 dont have sex. maybe the clintons will move there.
1970s had many problems, including survival of the free word led by that Obama ideological ancestor, Carter and the fool Ford.
2000s have many problems, including survival of the free world led by Osama idelogical ancestor, Bush and the fool greenspan.
so what was the PE in 74? becuase from what you are saying, that is where we are headed.
obama is losing me, though.
was stunned to see him have a FNM guy helping him, very stupid.
wind fall oil taxes, beyond stupid.
big mac willing to tap the gulf.
still praying that jesse ventura runs as an inde, like two weeks before the election. by late october we should be so sick of both of these clowns, ventura cud cake walk it.
who actually speaks to god more often, bush or osama?
i guess that all depends on the type of drugs god is holding on any given day.
for the "market knows all" crowd, hmmm ... 30 year Treasuries about 5%, minus 3% historical real return [from B-school readings of long term studies when "inflation" was a "real" problemj circa 1980] means the omniscient bond market assumes inflation to be 2% for 30 years.
Uh ... what else is about 2% - the PCE core yer over year inflation measure.
Core is correct ... QED.
MEXICO CITY - Food manufacturers promised Mexico's government to freeze prices on more than 150 food products Wednesday to help families cope with rising costs.
SHEER BRILLANCE!
bush probably thinx this is a good idea, he will probably suggest the same thing shortly.
he better read this blog so he can understand inflation is within a comfort level.............if you are rich!
;-)
core is correct
lol
GIS having huge input price increase, so how r they earning so much?
maybe they r passing higher prices onto the avg american who eats cereal.
if core is correct then y r we retesting the jan lows and the banks broke em?
with fed funds of 2%, a mid cycle slowdown, and inflation under control, shudnt we be going higher a la 1995 (that was a real mid cycle slowdown, 94, when the fed wasnt totally insane)?
y did we just lose 1000 handles on the dow, in the past month?
there has to be a reason. imo, its factoring in stagger lee, but if that is wrong, then y is the tape so heavy?
and i wud not expect consumer sales to be strong in june.
us working folks got 3 paychecks in may, not 2. plus we got the money from the IRS. i really didnt notice until i opened my bank statement and noticed i saved over 4 grand in may.
something tells me most people spent all 3 paychecks and the irs money.
i bet june simply sux on the retail front, sans gasoline sales.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4798.html
Western Economies Experiencing Early Stages of Stagflation
Economics / Stagflation
May 22, 2008 - 05:40 AM
By: Mark_OByrne
The inflation genie is well and truly out of the lamp and with the Federal Reserve reducing their growth forecasts for the year yesterday, the U.S. and most western economies are now facing a nasty bout of stagflation.
Stagflation has arrived and yet there continues to be a ‘hear no evil, see no evil' and head in the sand attitude and a wishful thinking that these conditions will soon disappear and we can return to the “good” decade of the 1990's. While we all hope for such an outcome, the reality is likely to be much different as the benign financial and economic years of recent history degenerate into a far less benign and challenging financial and economic era.
This new era will be marked by low or no growth and high inflation and gold and silver's finite qualities will come into their own again. Real diversification and risk aversion remains essential.
stagger lee thesis gaining some traction.
I REALLY HOPE I AM WRONG. or my dream job of doing nothing will be short lived.
where is that tsunami, that dimon was talking about?
it was more like a decent set at sunrise. a few long workable rides, not sitting on the surf board waiting for my belles beach tsunami.
"HOLD ON BRO,NO WAY BELLES IS AS BIG AS WAIMEA"
but i believe in the 50 yr storm!
well, many don't read this blog and know it yet ;-)
too many listen to doomsayers on babblevision, cnn, etc.
;-)
time will tell ...
but for six months I stuck my neck out on my own thinking on GDP, recession, etc. and so far ... well, you know.
;-)
ive been in the stagger lee camp since mid 2006.
id say given the govts spotty data, 1% growth with 4% headline inflation is not looking bad.
although even 1% surprises me.
still feel like negative 1% or worse with about 8% on headline.
however i experienced more disinflation this week.
called to get a quote on my auto insurance. they wanted 1650 for my benz and the wordens altima. i got the same coverage with the same company (travelers) for 1000 bucks. so between auto insurance and homeowners we saved over 4500 bucks this yr which easily trumps the extra money for gas and food.
but again i dont think many under 40 have no car payments, no mortgage, 500k in triple aaa munis, plently of cash in the bank, silver bars sowed up in an old mattress, and 0 kids, with a wife who makes decent money.
there are many people to thank for my good situation but god had nothing to do with it. in fact i remain convinced god hates me, and i hate him.
i saw some celtics thanking god for the win last nite, but no lakers blaming god for the lose.
:-)
If you dont believe in god...how can he hate you sir?
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