Friday, March 14, 2008

TGIF

It's been a long week. Corporate taxes are due Monday, 3/17 and I manage a few that I own part or all. The worst are the state tax returns. These rapacious states are just pirahnas wanting money and forms. Despicable.

S&P must read this blog, as they took up my thinking from yesterday's and some prior posts that this "credit" funk will soon be over. Specifically, they said that the worst is over for subprime writedowns by major institutions and even that some writedowns may be too large. I have written before that all the focus on writedown by public financial institutions is just wrong ... a part portion, perhaps a majority, of troubled securites with future losses are held by pension funds and insurance companies and hedge funds. The first two of that group tend to hold securities to maturity. The hedge funds are being liquidated. So this writedown mess really is about over.

Stock markets should soon start to focus on what to buy for the next big move up. I am very long the big banks [BAC, WB, C, JPM], GE, GOOG, AAPL [I topped off GOOG yesterday and bought some AAPL calls (!) ], DVN and CVX. Other positions are smaller: HDB, IBN, EDU, RIG, DO, CCJ, not in order of size.

Haha, I just heard Kernan on Babblevision refer to negative nabobs. That fits ... the nattering nabobs of negativism ! Spiro Agnew used that term about 35 years ago to describe liberal doomsayers. But it sure fits the punditry that gets pushed onto us from Babblevision and its rival, Blabberg.

The double bottom pattern held yesterday. The reversal up on higher volume was a positive. Perhaps real buyers are adding ? We know that very long term "smart money" like Buffet has been buying heavily. Insiders are not selling rallies. I read in IBD that bearish newsletters are now number more than bullish ones, a rare event not seen since October 2002, which was a fine long term buy point.

I continue to sell gold & silver in large amounts and look to buy more stocks on dips. I want to get my gold & silver holdings in the Krypto Fund down to 5% asset allocation by Monday. I think the potential for a major dollar reversal is becoming likely and want that gold & silver sold before then. I also just saw that supertankers are "slowing down" on the seas. That might mean owners of the oil are using the tankers as storage as their own storage is full. Perhaps demand is slowing. Just guessing.

By the way, IF a dollar reversal/bottom occurs, European and Near East investors will rush to buy US stocks as their prices are very, very cheap.

PS: Don't be too aggressive unless you have sizeable reserves. The big, bad bears are out there, wounded and want blood. They will attack again. Use time-diversification and buy only dips. Keep reserves.

Words of the Day

"Copacetic" - adjective [$10]
Copacetic means very satisfactory.
Sentence: Yesterday's copacetic reversal in the US stock market further strengthens the double bottom pattern.

"Nadir" - noun [$10]
Nadir means the lowest point.
Sentence: The successful recent test of the Martin Luther King low provide further evidence that S&P 1270 marks the nadir of the US stock market in this cycle.

"Nescience" - noun [$10]
Nescience means lack of knowledge or awareness.
Sentence: The profound nescience on the US-based programs on Babblevision and Blabberg must be mortally wounding to the financial knowledge of Americans.

103 comments:

mfl59 said...

so you believe a dollar rally leads to a stronger US equity market bunkerman, not a weaker one?

mfl59 said...

Bud your hero John Bogle on bloomberg tv...pffttt

Bunkerman said...

yes re dollar. I think the US stocks rally anyway, but fuel is added as dollar rallies - I'm not saying a dollar long term bull market ensues, just a rally and then consolidation parrtern forms until the effect of the last move are fully reflected in exports & imports, etc.

Bunkerman said...

very good CPI and core.

inflation-mongers wrong ... again.

Sigh .... Bunkerman right again.

mern said...

mfl, the BSC folks r asking me what is up? LOL

sure feels like it cud totally implode. its got everything. a ceo denying liquidity rumors, and he is brand new.

they all but said when they report on the 20th they will be in the da black.

for some reason i dont think they were in the black or a lot of shorts r gonna get crushed.

the CPI, ROFLLLLLLL. unchanged on headline. gas only went up 10 to 15% in feb. food prices up a lot as well. BLS cooked up a whopper today. i hope it stix. i really like this job. i get paid to work out and dodge wads of paper being darted at me.

"if u can dodge a wrench, u can dodge a ball!"

;-)

Bud said...

beefer ping pong is back???

i sure hope so


PS....did they reinstate the uptick rule??

Bud said...

john bogle sounds just like the Bman

Bud said...

no inflation


lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Bud said...

dodgeball


excellent!!!!

that was a funny flic

mfl59 said...

does this mean helicopter Ben goes the full 75 bp next week bunkerman?

Bunkerman said...

I think BSC survives unless they have a lot of commercial paper at the holding company level. That's what killed Drexel.

From what Schwartz "implied" the holding company is flush with cash.

I think BSC might be taken over by a big bank at a serious haircut to book value... your area [equity, right ?] should be ok at that's one area a bank might want.

mfl59 said...

BSC poparoo....mern is safe!

Bunkerman said...

JPM to bridge the NY Fed to BSC for 28 days to get them to the TSLF.

JPM shows itself as a leader. Good. Gotta buy more.

Bunkerman said...

not sure, mfl... 50 or 75 for sure. Guess I'd like 75 to get to 2.25 and perhaps signal a bottom.

Spin-em said...

toga party on 7 at BSC!!!

Bunkerman said...

hmmm ... what if JPM takes over BSC for EOQ book value? Interesting.

Bunkerman said...

BSC must be taken over ... like EF HUtton/Kidder Peabody ... and others.

Book value at end of quarter (after current marks) is likely price.

mfl59 said...

that was short lived re BSC

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...well done sir...good call on inflation report and those recent buys as well.

Bunkerman said...

Babblevision dopes don't realilze the TSLF doesn't start until 3/27 ... that is why JPM needed as a bridge.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh Babblevision must read my blog ... now they "remember" the TSLF doesn't started unitl 3/27

Bunkerman said...

small add JPM ... I figure they'll get a bargain from BSC and they are now the Street leader.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman does this remind you of the time when JP Morgan bailed out Wall St in 1907? or was it in the 1920's?

Bud said...

beeferrrr ping pong!!!!!!!!!!!!


lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Bud said...

1920s manipulation



lmaooooooooooooooooooooooo

Bunkerman said...

a bit. The specifics are more like times in the 1980s when firms got taken over at request of Fed or someone.

But regarding future leadership, yes, it will show JPM is the Street leader again. Good for business worldwide.

Bunkerman said...

interesting how few can buy when there's blood on the "Street"

uh ... don't do it without reserves.

Bunkerman said...

lotta panic showing up

Spin-em said...

Mr hunt saw this yesterday...geez..

mfl59 said...

that put volume in BSC yesterday a great tell that something was amiss....

Frosty said...

BSC the market leader.

die mern die, sorry big guy, but you are sleeping with the enemy sir.

Bunkerman said...

Babblevision creating panic, incredible.

Bud said...

american banks are a sham

balance sheets are a house of card

earnings models are ponzi scheme

day of reckoning is upon us

Armageddon is here!!!!


lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

mfl59 said...

this is what bulls should want....a chance to form a real bottom now...

Bud said...

is BSC a buy here....lo 30s????

Frosty said...

Bud is asking questions about buying a bank stock...you are a disgusting pig...shank him bunky.

Bud said...

mr G covered his BSC darkside today

maestro indeed

Frosty said...

tape measure shot indeed, thing I'll cirle the bases twice.

Frosty said...

first 1987 black monday comment...straight from cramerica.

Bud said...

LEH next BSC?????????????

Bud said...

i really hope Mern's next job is at a public comapny

mfl59 said...

lol wasnt cramer bullish at 925? pffttt..

mfl59 said...

Ben is coming at about 345 with 100bp.....once his flight arrives from Turks and Cacos...

mfl59 said...

i wonder where that douche bag floor trader on the NYSE who was crowing that you had to own BSC at yesterday's close is? acting like a little kid on cnbc at 9:25... nice call sir....

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...where do you get those custom made jock straps to hold that massive sack...not that I could fill even a fraction of one...just curious...I'm worried for you big guy.

Bud said...

frosty's tape measure must be in centimeters

mfl59 said...

Bush going to talk about the economy....shhhhhhhhhhh.....

Frosty said...

Bud... they gonna' trade the float in BSC today?

mfl59 said...

is a homebuilder next to go? seems like a logical next step....

Mern, the bunker will welcome you back with open arms sir....open up the trading account again...make a play....

mfl59 said...

BSC CFO sounds really confident...lmaoooo

Bunkerman said...

back ... was delivering more gold & silver to sell.

Bud said...

did i tell you guys ping pong is my favorite sport?

i have been a bit rusty.......but what a great game



golf digest???

pfffffffffffffffffffft

Bunkerman said...

don't forget, frosty, re balls ... that my Alpha Fund is small compared to net worth

Bunkerman said...

I'm rather disciplined in controlling my risk levels. But I do swing the bat with my Alpha Fund.

And I have a big pile of cash from the gold & silver sales now to buy when the blood is on the Street.

Interestign how that diversification is paying off so much now just when one expects it.

mfl59 said...

does the alpha account use margin sir?

Bunkerman said...

waiting to buy more JPM after decision is made re BSC buy ... figure the bears will hit any buyer.

Bunkerman said...

One must treat aggressive investing like a military campaign ... supply lines ... reserves ..and a safe bunker :-)

I'm a survivalist in reality and survived the 1987 crash, too, even though hurt.

Bunkerman said...

yes I use margin aggressively, but had cash in the bank in normal course of life if necessary to wire or ACH in. And I mentally keep a sell list if needed.


For example, I have a BIG postion in GE ... if needed in a crash, I'd sell it first.

Bunkerman said...

I'm 200% long, btw.

Bunkerman said...

that is, 200% long in Alpha accounts.

Bunkerman said...

The Krypto Fund acconts are mostly not margined at all, except as allocation offsets.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...no implication that you are a common man...this could no more than plastic k-bar practice for you...still it would sadden me should you have an eye poked out.

mfl59 said...

SPX now looks like an inverted cup and handle....if 1270 gives way maybe we finally get the waterfall decline and capitualtion....

Bunkerman said...

well, I don't like losing money, for sure.

mfl59 said...

rumor: Bernanke-Greenspan main event UFC 87

Frosty said...

who have we yet to hear from the past couple of days...a huge stack of jaw bones indeed.

Spin-em said...

geesh I was just goofin... didnt want merny to get whacked

mfl59 said...

today is Hawaiian shirt Friday at BSC....

Bud said...

hawaiin shirt friday

looooooooooooooooooooooool

Bud said...

Bman set yout tivo for sunday nite on hbo

series on john adams begins

those times around the american revolution really interest me

Frosty said...

BSC call, oh brother...sure isn't open kimono day...I want my money back Ben.

Spin-em said...

prolly a good idea to put a muzzle on Gasparino today

Bunkerman said...

DuPont raised guidance ... uh, where is the recession ?

Frosty said...

GS the battle right here right now...biggest of the war to date.

Bud said...

aaahhhhh....the sweet smell of vindication

i believe my prediction of 'armageddon' has turned out to be true

ur welcome guys.....yes even you frsoty.......

mfl59 said...

who the heck is buying treasuries with a negative real return at these levels? I understand the flight to quality, but come on...what say you bunkerman? are we about to enter a topping period there?

mfl59 said...

kudos zeta...I mean Bud...

Bunkerman said...

sure, a panic top.

ditto in gold, TIPS, etc.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, I've lived through so many brokerage firm failures over the past 25 years.

You guys don't know what armageddon is.

Bud said...

zeta

loooooooooooooooooooooool

"hank and ben"

Bud said...

were you alive during panic of 1907???

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman, Frosty....how does this environment compare to the S&L crisis in the 80's?

mfl59 said...

Jim Rogers wants the Fed to raise rates on Tuesday....lmaoooooooooooooooooo

mfl59 said...

Jim Rogers wants the Fed to raise rates on Tuesday....lmaoooooooooooooooooo

Frosty said...

Bud... your humble nature is admirable...I think I would rather have Vick baby sit my dog...foghorn leghorn indeed sir.

Bunkerman said...

this has a lot of similarities to that, not exact.

Commercial RE was a disater area adn Congress made it worse ... similtaneous juink bond collapse ... then war in Iraq.

I have to go to an appointment .. have fun.

Frosty said...

much lower fear, less volatial to date...there is no panic in comparison.

Frosty said...

everyone who wants a job has one....even mern...for a couple more days.

Frosty said...

frosty with another multiple home run game: "shucks, I just try to put wood on the ball".

Spin-em said...

(...a whisper to Ben ala Field of Dream before bell monday)

.......ease their pain

Bud said...

frosty you playin with the 6year boys on your street again?

Frosty said...

indeed Bud, those kids are much harder to hit.

Frosty said...

now I know how reggie jackson felt in the 78' series.

Spin-em said...

MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Bunktini's on me boys.......

hope it works out for ya mern

Bud said...

i think Mern is still at BSC.........i was just kiddin


PS....he's goin in tomorrow to work on tps reports....lumberg caught him while he was tryn to sneak out

Frosty said...

light the lamp bunker boys...what a tape...some great posts this week.

mern said...

gonna play russian roulette with a semi automatic gun in a few minutes.

and no, its not funny!

fuck this mortal shell, i want out of this world!

mern said...

when my dad dirt napped at age 9 that was depressing.

watching my mom go out in 2001 while my book blew, becuase i didnt care in the nursing home, that was depressing and stressful.

when the dog shop owner tried to screw us. so we had to sue, buy guns, threatened by hells angels. that was depressing and stressful.

taking darkside shots in my hedge fund until i gave up, was depressing and stressful.

work at the bucket shop, paid shitty, and watched thieves make buckets of money, was depressing and stressful.

as i left work today, i was told i wud probably be let go on monday.

i seriously for the first time in my life, want to die!

this decade has sucked so much ass ive got shit between my teeth and i just flossed.

FUCK GOD. FUCK HIM STRAIGHT UP HIS OR HER ASSHOLE. FUCK GOD DEEP AND LONG AND LEAVE THE TELEPHONE POLE UP HIS ASS.

ill be with satan!

Spin-em said...

Hey Mern.......

Spin-em said...

Dont do anything stupid mern...everythings going to be alright brother

mfl59 said...

Come on bro....its just a job...not worth doing anything stupid....

Bunkerman said...

well, mern, I was working at Drexel when it blew up. I was sick with the flu and told by friends to show up at work as the place collapsed and to get my files & papers so we cold move on. Those are some memories ... very vivid.

Just wait and see what happens, give your wide a hug & kiss, go for a run today.

BSC won't blow up ... likely a JPM sub soon. Keep on friendly terms with whomever you've met there as people stick together and help each other.

Time moves on and it's best to wait, take a few deep breaths, see what happens first. Go out with your wife this weekend to a nice place and enjoy yourselves a bit.

Unfortunately for all the good people at BSC - and I have other long term friends working there - the scum who ran the place last year and for the prior two decades created enough toxins to kill it even after they were ousted.

Frosty said...

Mern...you have freinds dude, willing to help...let's talk.