TGIF

It's been a long week. Corporate taxes are due Monday, 3/17 and I manage a few that I own part or all. The worst are the state tax returns. These rapacious states are just pirahnas wanting money and forms. Despicable.

S&P must read this blog, as they took up my thinking from yesterday's and some prior posts that this "credit" funk will soon be over. Specifically, they said that the worst is over for subprime writedowns by major institutions and even that some writedowns may be too large. I have written before that all the focus on writedown by public financial institutions is just wrong ... a part portion, perhaps a majority, of troubled securites with future losses are held by pension funds and insurance companies and hedge funds. The first two of that group tend to hold securities to maturity. The hedge funds are being liquidated. So this writedown mess really is about over.

Stock markets should soon start to focus on what to buy for the next big move up. I am very long the big banks [BAC, WB, C, JPM], GE, GOOG, AAPL [I topped off GOOG yesterday and bought some AAPL calls (!) ], DVN and CVX. Other positions are smaller: HDB, IBN, EDU, RIG, DO, CCJ, not in order of size.

Haha, I just heard Kernan on Babblevision refer to negative nabobs. That fits ... the nattering nabobs of negativism ! Spiro Agnew used that term about 35 years ago to describe liberal doomsayers. But it sure fits the punditry that gets pushed onto us from Babblevision and its rival, Blabberg.

The double bottom pattern held yesterday. The reversal up on higher volume was a positive. Perhaps real buyers are adding ? We know that very long term "smart money" like Buffet has been buying heavily. Insiders are not selling rallies. I read in IBD that bearish newsletters are now number more than bullish ones, a rare event not seen since October 2002, which was a fine long term buy point.

I continue to sell gold & silver in large amounts and look to buy more stocks on dips. I want to get my gold & silver holdings in the Krypto Fund down to 5% asset allocation by Monday. I think the potential for a major dollar reversal is becoming likely and want that gold & silver sold before then. I also just saw that supertankers are "slowing down" on the seas. That might mean owners of the oil are using the tankers as storage as their own storage is full. Perhaps demand is slowing. Just guessing.

By the way, IF a dollar reversal/bottom occurs, European and Near East investors will rush to buy US stocks as their prices are very, very cheap.

PS: Don't be too aggressive unless you have sizeable reserves. The big, bad bears are out there, wounded and want blood. They will attack again. Use time-diversification and buy only dips. Keep reserves.

Words of the Day

"Copacetic" - adjective [$10]
Copacetic means very satisfactory.
Sentence: Yesterday's copacetic reversal in the US stock market further strengthens the double bottom pattern.

"Nadir" - noun [$10]
Nadir means the lowest point.
Sentence: The successful recent test of the Martin Luther King low provide further evidence that S&P 1270 marks the nadir of the US stock market in this cycle.

"Nescience" - noun [$10]
Nescience means lack of knowledge or awareness.
Sentence: The profound nescience on the US-based programs on Babblevision and Blabberg must be mortally wounding to the financial knowledge of Americans.