Thursday, May 15, 2008

Back in the Saddle

Ahhhhh ... home again.

Rome is a great, wonderful place to visit. The city is loaded with fine sites of antiquity, fine paintings and sculptures, fine food and the people are quite friendly and helpful. It's easy to get around, too, as much is within walking distances. And did I walk ... up and down the seven hills of Rome. Or at least up and down a few of them many times. Mrs. B strongly prefers walking over taxis and so I obeyed.

We had fine weather every day except some rain on half of one day. The temperatures were comfortable at 75-80F midday when sunny, which was most of the days. I'll write more later about Rome. Also, this "one city" or "one country" method is really the way to travel if one expects to do it a lot over a decade or two. Staying in one hotel and then using walks and tours to see the area is really comfortable and not stressful at all.

OK, I admit I did not live as a "common man" on the vacation. Regarding the flight, "business class" is about 90% of what "first class" was in the 1980s when I experienced it with frequent flyer miles on a few long flights overseas. So it's really worth it if you have the extra money [quite a lot, actually] or can get the seats with mileage awards.

I did not eat at McDonald's, but went into one to see. The place was fabulous with a Travetine marble floor, and sold fine coffees, gelato [a form of ice cream] and the usual foods. There were places to sit and enjoy the coffee, etc. Prices were high vs. Bunkerman's town, but about equal to NYC Manhattan prices. One of our guides said, jokingly, that churches and McDonalds were everywhere in Rome. But I asked and the Vatican state has no McDonald's.

Markets

I hear that AIG re-invigorated the financial bears ... sigh. Why did anyone believe that company ? They can manufacture whatever numbers they wish from the bag of assets.

The S&P is about where it was when I left for Rome. Hope all enjoyed the beefer ping-pong games.

Core CPI is at 2.3% year over year - very low inflation. The BLS has it right. Energy and food prices rises are purely supply and demand related. Energy price increases are due to the emerging market demand bumping into no new supply growth. Food is weather-related and idiotic US ethanol policies.

The monetary base is growing about 1-2% - there is no money fueled "inflation". The Fed should really force that to grow faster to accomodate growth.

Word of the Day

"Moloch" - noun [$10]
Moloch means 1a. a Canaanite idol to whom children were sacrificed; 1b. a tyrannical object of sacrifices; 2. a grotesque spiny slow moving Australian lizard.
Sentence: [from "Shah of Shahs" by R. Kapuscinki, pg. 64 - a really fine book, ref the corruption of the Shah of Iran in the 1970s] "As prices rose, the bribes got bigger and ordinary people complained that more and more of their earnings went to feed the moloch of corruption."

26 comments:

Bunkerman said...

I wonder if mern is in Singapore ? I heard a guy on Babblevision at 4AM who sounded like him - roaring inflation, BLS lying, etc.

Nahh ... the guy had a full head of hair ;-))

Bunkerman said...

I guess John Edwards got a payoff - endorsed Obama.

Hillary wins WV - that's a swing state, by the way. Very crucial to D's in Nov.

If Algore had won WV, he'd would have won.

Bunkerman said...

btw, the 4AM babblevison show is being ruined slowly with these American-style dueling talking heads. It used to have European-style longer interviews with somne real thought provided. Now it's less and less substance vs. Blabberg.

mfl59 said...

Welcome back bunkerman....but if you go tell a common man that the BLS has it right and inflation is tame...well...be prepared to use your K bar sir...

Bunkerman said...

Thanks to "modern math", the common man unfortunately has trouble with arithmetic and is deceived by a few big changes.

The splash of a big rock going into broad lake is just a splash and doesn't raise the entire level much.

Ugh ... used a metaphor. Sorry.

maverick said...

Bman, any signs of inflation in Tony's homeland?

mern said...

welcome back mr kotter.

yes i wud agree the inflationary pressures are more structual than cyclical, and there aint much the fed can do about it. at the same time trying to tell anyone in the country the CPI is 3.9% and went down in the last 30 days is too funny to even debate.

imagine if u lived off social security. the CPI determines how much your checks go up. i cant possibly see y the govt wud water down the CPI while about 70 million boomers start getting checks.

now the real question. did the fed really bail out JPM and BSC was simply the fall guy?

mern said...

here is this idiot, todd harrison. he has only been long the metals and oils since 2003 and short the fins. what does he know?

What if the March 17th Federal Reserve bailout wasn’t aimed at Bear Stearns (BSC)?


What if it was actually a bailout of JP Morgan (JPM)?


For instance, what if billionaire Joe Lewis had a “knock out” provision on his Bear Stearns exposure?


And JP Morgan was the counter-party on that transaction?


Could it be that JP Morgan was responsible for listing—and trading—the out-of-the-money puts in Bear Stearns?


Is that why we never saw an investigation of that outsized activity?

mern said...

Hillary Clinton on Wednesday reiterated her vow to stay in the Democratic presidential race, but she said it would be a "terrible mistake" for her supporters to vote for John McCain over Barack Obama.

OH SNAP.

will bud obey his god?

Bunkerman said...

I just old 1/2 my WB for a ST tax loss. In the downturn of March-April, I had doubled up, and now the 30 day window on the last piece has expired.

This ST loss on the early-dated shares will offset some of tax on my gold+silver sales earlier this your.

The position is now just a big large, but the average cost is low..

Bunkerman said...

I thought Rome prices were a lot like NYC Midtown Manhattan aka high.

I didn't hear a lot of complaints.

But that big European VAT tax makes some comparison hard.

Bunkerman said...

Of course, not speaking any Italian meant I wouldn't have picked up any gripes except from a guide.

Bunkerman said...

sold some C for ST tax loss, too. Still have a large position, but not too large.

mern said...

Sen. John McCain envisions that by 2013, the Iraq War will be won but the threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan won't yet be eliminated, even though Osama bin Laden will have been captured or killed.



he is sooooooo wrong! doesnt he know the mayan calender ends 12/31/12. we need to win before the world ends.

he shud strap on a set and suggest when he starts on day 1 the war will be over in 15 minutes. just call saudi arabia and ask what color glass they want over there?

Bunkerman said...

Does anyone know a good antivirus program that's not McAfee, Norton or ZoneAlarm ? ... must work on crappy Vista.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...try MSFT security.

Bunkerman said...

Thanks frosty, am trying it now. My endless problems with Vista I suspect were caused by ZoneAlarm.

Bunkerman said...

seems like some stealth real buying going on ... bits here and there

Frosty said...

OMG...Bud where are you...get your dad in line...he's still high on italian vino.

I will be nice to you xoxoxo

Bunkerman said...

Maybe Bud is depressed by how the scurrilous D's are treating Hilly ... trying to push her out early and deprive those Florida & Michigan voters of their votes ?

Despicable, those D power brokers ...

mern said...

last august we got .66 to .65 euros for a $.

how is that looking today?

remember way back in 2000 when a dollar got u 1.25 euros.

funny they r both fiat currencies based on BS

mern said...

i was reading the errors of the hildog campaign. one of her top campaign managers wasnt even aware how the process worked. he thought like the elephants it was winner take all in each state.

the clinton plan was to win cali and that wud clinch it. he just didnt know the delegates got split up.

how could you be that deep into the party and not know how the process works?

ready day 1?

Frosty said...

TLT up as much as SPY...real buyers or opx expo games.

Frosty said...

Mern...herd the chicoms bailed out the fed, who then bailed out BCS who then bailed out JPM...hope you like pot stickers.

mern said...

i luv pot................................... stickers

How far do you plan to travel this summer?
Within your state 23%
Within the country 28%
Outside the country 8%
Your couch 41%


i also love my couches and bed. driving is for suckers!

3.95 for premium.

i peeked and the avg price of a gallon of gas went up almost 40 cents in april, which is roughly 10%. so im not quite sure how the govt came up with it went down 2% becuase they were expecting it go up 7% becuase of seasonality. does that make any sense?

NOPE.

all i know is inflation rolled over a little bit in april despite not 1 american noticing it. does that make any sense?

nope

Spin-em said...

The MERN GAZETTE presses really roll when Bunks in town.....

EXTRA EXTRA READ ALL ABOUT IT IN THE MERN NEWS DAILY!!!!!lol