Friday, May 30, 2008

Summing Up

As summer is upon us, I thought that reiterating some of my more controverisal views might be fun. And might cause some trouble, too !

1. No recession has or will occur. This is a mid-cycle slowdown.
2. A rich man's panic did occur, which also brought to light some amazing cupidity and stupidity in Wall Street.
3. The housing bottom is upon us.
4. There is too much money sloshing in hedge funds.
5. Hedge funds should be regulated like mutual funds or banks, as appropriate.
6. Pension funds should be prohibited from speculating in futures markets. If they want to buy oil, buy oil in the ground or buy physical oil & store it.
7. All derivatives should be regulated and required to be traded on exchanges with pure right of set off.
8. There is no significant general inflation. Oil & some energy prices have risen hugely, mostly due to lack of new supply and increased demand. Everything else is just painful adjustments to that pressure.
9. The Fed needs to increase the monetary base more; money growth is too slow.
10. The US should declare victory in the cold war over totalitarianism and other conflicts and pull back from foreign entanglements and stop trying to unduly influence other nations' actions.
11. All earmarks are payoffs or bribes and all must be abolished.
12. Congressional terms should be limited to 12 years total service. No further office holding permitted. Cabinet-level government service should be included in this limit. Only Presidential or Vice-Presidential service is excluded.
13. Supreme Court justices and all Federal judges should be required to retire and leave office at age 80. The Senate should be required to hold votes on nominees within 90 days of submission or the candidate is deemed approved..
14. Congressional gerrymandering should be prohibited. Districts should be required to be composed on whole counties, towns, etc.
15. Former public officials should be prohibited from engaging in lobbying. Spouses, "partners", etc. should be prohibited from engaging in lobbying.
16. CEO and top corporate pay should be limited, except to stock awards - not options - voted by shareholders.
17. Hedge fund, private equity, etc. managers should pay ordinary income taxes on all compensation, including social security and Medicare taxes. If a fund manager receives pay and pays taxes on it, he can invest the net amount in the fund and then be treated as any other partner.
18. All municipal bond income should be subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax.
19. All private foundations should be required to liquidate in full within 50 years.
20. The 99 year rule against perpetuities should be strictly applied to any private trust.

That's enough for now.

"Populist libertarianism" means maximum freedom with limits to prevent the ruling classes from (1) attaining too much power & wealth, (2) creating a new aristocracy, and (3) from using their wealth and power to affect the lives of the common man. All limits are imposed on the ruling classes only, not on the lives of the common man.

PS: Item #10 does not mean cut military spending. As George Washington knew and said, one must prepare for war to ensure peace. I'm not sure what the limit under #16 should be. Maybe $3 million per year. That's enough cash ... let them get stock for the rest.

PPS: I am not using ruling classes in any Marxist sense. It's a literal, yet colorful term for the rich & powerful & a few others who connive in DC (or Brussels) to increase their power, wealth and / or to mold us into beings of their design. "Connive" ... a fine word ... reminds me of "knave".

Word of the Day

"Antimetabole" - noun [$1000 !] Rhetoric
Antimetabole means a figure [of speech] in which the same words or ideas are repeated in inverse order.
Sentence: (A) Shakespeare's sonnet #129 uses frequent antimetabole, a Greek term that denotes the rhetoric of reversal. An example is line 2, "Is lust in action; and till action, lust".
(B) Bunkerman's frequent musing about the best label for his political philosophy uses antimetabole, viz., he's a populist libertarian, or is that a libertarian populist ?

46 comments:

Bunkerman said...

year over year core PCE inflation is 2.1%, a good number. No inflation.

Spending and income numbers good. No recession.

Frosty said...

what are the rules engagemwnt...blast the list in a random manner...top to bottom...even odd?

Bunkerman said...

no holds barred ... this blog is pro free speech !

Bunkerman said...

hehe even for the ruling classes ;-)

Bunkerman said...

and their sycophants and willing stooges ;-))

Bunkerman said...

No person intended .. uh ... I suppose other than prominent chat room leader ;-))

Frosty said...

willing stooges LMAOOO...you could have stopped there :)

maverick said...

Bud joined the French union ...4 days on 3 off?

Bunkerman said...

lol, must be "mastering Stonewall ..."

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...TLT and TIP dark still looking like the best bet on the board...the end of the common man is near.

may I suggest a trade...sell Gold Mist, the other obvious trade...upgrade the half track to something with a big gun...m-48 if your looking for a bargain...m60 or m-601a would be my choice...make sure you get the doozer attachment and ditch the snow plow crew.

Frosty said...

#7...ppffttt...you act as if these derivatives can be valued...fitch has your back.

Bunkerman said...

I closed that TLT trade when oil spiked up. Never re-entered. I decided that it takes up too much capital to make serious $.

Bunkerman said...

futures would be the way to do it, but I closed that account.

Bunkerman said...

the idea of #7 is that automatic offset will close out most when an exchange is involved, like a futures contract.

So the amounts do not build up.

That's being done for credit default swaps now - saw news story.

Bunkerman said...

participants will have to put up collateral, like in futures - T-bills.

this will work & reduce lots of system risk.

Bunkerman said...

for example, a long CDS on XYZ corp from C and a short CDS from JPM will offset to zero in the claering corp. Just like a long & short S&P futures contract do.

Frosty said...

I hear what you saying...regardless how they trade they first need to be valued...isn't that the root cause of problem...FASB 125 or 128 is not a stardard, more like a giant loophole....mark to model my aaazzzz.

Frosty said...

Bud...if you check in today I suggest you toss that junior size starter set of clubs in the pond...this is more your speed.

http://www.laddergolf.com/

mern said...

year over year core PCE inflation is 2.1%, a good number. No inflation.

source the govt.

Consumer confidence fell to a 28-year low in May as inflation expectations soared, according to a survey released on Friday that presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve.

May's reading was the lowest since 58.7 in June 1980 but it was slightly higher than the preliminary reading of 59.5 published earlier this month
However, the improvement was marginal and the report still paints a troubling picture, with one-year inflation expectations surging to 5.2 percent -- the highest since February 1982 -- from 4.8 percent in April.

The report heightens worries that the United States could be entering a period of stagflation like the late 1970s and early 1980s, characterized by a sluggish economy and accelerated price growth.

source the univesity of michigan.

no inflation, LOL

agree with just about everything u said.

so u got that going for you

Bunkerman said...

I'm not talking about CDO/CLO/CMO/CBOs - those aren't derivatives. Those are trusts with actual cash debt/lonas/bonds on them, or should have.

I'd prohibit those truats with credit default swaps.

Bunkerman said...

I've seen M48s for sale - not many. No M60s, or better

For a big gun, shells are hard to come by ... must re-load them and use milled projectiles.

I think the half-track with a Ma deuce or better, a quad 50, is about the best available.

Frosty said...

#18...ppfffttt...why drive up the cost to finance localized public projects...you tax the bond income via ATM and the rich pigs will demand higher rates of return or they will send more money to their chosen beefers...I guess we can just fill potholes with common men so we can drive over them in our hummers as we take gold bars to market.

Bunkerman said...

I added a couple PS's to clarify a some aspects of the blog.

Bunkerman said...

Municipal bondholders are freeloaders who pay nothing for all the governemnt.

This part of the ruling classes are particulaly despicable since they tell the rest of us how to live & pay, yet are freeloaders.

And many municipal projects are a complete waste of money, where they pay double for anything.

Bunkerman said...

yes, I own one municipal bond ... had to hold my nose when buying it: got 5.15% during the crisis on a good single A.

It bugged me to buy it ... grrr.

But I had to as part of Mrs. B's investment education program as her broker found it offered and Mrs. B wanted it.

mern said...

um, i have cash, some silver bars, and munis. is 3400 sq feet a mcmansion?

does that make me a scum bag?

im only in the 28% tax bracket. only putting AAA rated paper into the portfolio.

someone has to plan for my retirement. i sure as hell know i will never see a dime that i paid into social security.

thx GOP!

Frosty said...

#10...ppffttt...yes we should just put the world's oil supply up for grabs...let Iran take what they want...no better, let's trust the Saudi's...and yes, f those dirty money grubbing, muni buying, jew bastards.

Bunkerman said...

oh mern ... the only asset the social security system ever held from day 1 was US Treasury bonds.

GOP did nothing to change that.

It's always been an intergenerational ponzi scam.

Bunkerman said...

no, mern you are not in the ruling classes ;-)

Bunkerman said...

why does US common man pay for guarding world's oil - oil for EU, Japan, China, India, etc. ?

I say either they all ask us to do it openly & pay & contribute, or we take it now, or walk away.

All they do is bitch about US hegemony and whine about US being a overbearing.

Uncle Sam is Uncle Sucker.

If Iran tries anything openly, mern's glass is a cheap solution.

If Saudis+Kuwaitis+Qatar+rest want protection, let them pay US.

Bunkerman said...

Heck, right now the US common man is paying for an anti-missle system to protect Europe from Iranian missles.

That's nuts !

If Europe wants it, share, but let them pay.

Sometimes I wonder if the ruling classes push this nonsense for contracts, etc.

US money should protect the US.

Frosty said...

#10...that is an acceptable amendment.

Bunkerman said...

Japan paid for its own system, why can't Europe ?

Ditto all the rest.

Bunkerman said...

persoanlly, I favor the "take it now" solution.

Two airborne divisions, a few carriers and some B1's and B2's could take that corrupt mess over in two days.

Bunkerman said...

and there is plenty of armor in Iraq.

Bunkerman said...

well, it's been said I have a high testoterone level ;-))

Frosty said...

#16..ppfftt..there is not nearly enough top mangerial talent running public companies as it is...you want to reduce the number further...the best young talent is heading to beefer land or privated equity firms...who needs the hassle and the risk void of over sized rewards, in a post enron world.

Spin-em said...

well, it's been said I have a high testoterone level ;-))

Who the heck said that Bunk?...Bud?

Bunkerman said...

hehe hehe he said, "testoterone"

Some in an unnamed chat room said such when I proposed a glass solution :-)

Among others ;-)

Bunkerman said...

I think good managers would work for stock.

My idea could be applied to private equity, too, if done through tax penalties. Beefers, too for tax solutions.

No deductions for pay over $3 million unless in stock. Beefers can get it in carried interest, but must pay tax in current year.

Plenty of good mamagers worked well and performed in the 1980s for a lot less.

Ditto the 1950s.

The guys at the top just loot the companies with their gerrymandered compensation committees.

Look at Chuck Prince, O'Neil, on and on.

lose billions make millions..

They can't go to Europe since Europe pays a lot sless. and is imposing rules, too.

Frosty said...

just let me know when you have had enough, it is Friday afternoon...don't want you getting all liquored up tonight, taking out your high testosterone anger out on poor Krypto.

Bunkerman said...

lolol ... I think I'm batting 1000 with a high slugging percentage.

Hmmm ... martini time in 90 minutes.

Bunkerman said...

But I will have to get the K-bar out this weekend for some practice.

Bunkerman said...

I guess I'm 20 for 20 homers.

What a platform !

Bunkerman for President !

Bunkerman said...

enjoy the weekend.

mern said...

WAR!

;-)