Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Answer was Yes.

That is, the answer to the question that was used of yesterday's Word of the Day.

"Purblind" - adjective [$10]
Purblind means lacking in vision, insight or understanding.
Sentence: Will the purblind public scare enough pusillanimous Congressmen to defeat the Paulson plan ?

Yes.

Homo Boobus won with as screeches of the puerile public drowned out reason.

The banking system is bleeding as millions of the public are defaulting on their home mortgages - hence are the "root" cause - and partial relief for the banks to continue lending to "the public" aka the booboises - is defeated by the public in its hatred for evil banks and "Wall Street".

The people and firms and institutions who loaned the money to the public and are losing untold billions are the "bad guys" the public wants to punish. It's almost oxymoronic.

Equity markets dropped as the vote occurred.

After the vote failed, I sold all my Alpha Fund stocks and am now in cash. I don't have a vision of the likely economic trajectory now, so will wait and watch and think.

For the Krypto Fund, I continue to practice my standard asset allocation system. I'll check the values later this week. Substantial new cash is in that fund, which Mrs. B and I will put to work using time diversification.

Perhaps the ECB will cut rates. Much of the pressure has been coming from Europe. Maybe Congress will strip out the change to permit the Fed to pay interest on reserves and pass it separately. That would help immensely as the Fed could then flood the banking system with reserves.

But the current danger is that some companies will not be able to roll over commercial paper lines and thus fail. Plus more large banks might fail. There are fewer buyers now for those institutions. Deposits over $100,000 might not thus be protected. That would cause firms to miss payrolls, etc.

I think the rich will continue to panic. Many small mammals are likely to be hurt in the stampede. I've climbed into the tree of cash to wait.

I no longer think a true recession is unavoidable. So I will wait.

October looms. Ugh ... a scary month.

Word of the Day

"Canaille" - noun [$10] (pronounced Ka-nai)
Canaille means the rabble, the mob, the populace
Sentence: The canaille caused the defeat of the Paulson plan. Can they bear the consequences?

45 comments:

Bunkerman said...

I think the House R's have now gutted that chances of Big John. With a positive vote he could have claimed that he got a good deal.

Now, the R's will be blamed for the pain.

US government to lurch to the left.

Bud said...

no doubt Bman......gonna be very tuff for mac now


we gonna have a mooly-nan for president

Bud said...

we are about to turn over the keys of government to the democratic party

and not the centrist bill clinton democrats.....but the far far lefties

pelosi and obama.........there is no one to the left of them


"the party's over"

Bunkerman said...

Fed funds trade at 6.5%, above Fed's 2% target rate - DJ

Bunkerman said...

I remember at the early phases of the 1990 mess in the S&Ls that for awhile buyers bought the failed institutions. But after awhile, the flood and runs on the S&Ls become overwhelming and the FDIC and thrift equivalent wire overwhelmed so the RTC had to be set up to deal with the problem.

Maybe that will happen if runs on the smaller & mid-size banks start or continue.

Bunkerman said...

Also, I used to ask in discussion of policy, "how many millions of jobs are you willing to lose to do that policy?

Such as those fools who wanted interest rates to be raised all year long.

I guess we will find out.

mern said...

sorry to see u had to go to cash yesterday, but at least u live to keep playing.

ill probably add to my 50 GS and 100 CHK.

there is 1 other stock i am going to buy.

frankly what i like best about this selloff, is it kills mccain.

if obama can just get gud commercials like, if big mac voted yes to get rid of glass steagal, imo, that shud be used, a lot.

then a commercial with palins run on sentence to no where. she really is quite dumb, and anti womens rights. i guess the dumb women vote for that ticket and the ones that are not self hating........

then final commercial about the fundamentals being fine, two weeks, before a 1929, 1987 type blow up.

found out 2 more things about girly girl, she is not 24, but 23. and she is 90% black.

SWEET!

oh and she thinx thanksgiving is a big a joke as i do.

and we both have 3 felonies, that were dropped. hers was when she was 21.

ROFL.

and down the rabbitt whole i go!

mern said...

Such as those fools who wanted interest rates to be raised all year long.


i was one of those fools....... however i didnt go long one stock, since october of 2007, until last week.

We r

UD! (a fine place to get that finance degree, they taught me to stay away from stagflation. now its gone, im a buyer)

mfl59 said...

empty suits who keep referring to "main street" are really getting annoying....

I may have to watch 90210 reruns today instead of the news channels

mfl59 said...

paul 34 also hates Thanksgiving mern....boy what a scene he made in Scranton a few years ago.....ask spinny

Bunkerman said...

well, money was too tight all year long fighting the phony "inflation" caused by beefer speculation.

Monetary base was going up by about 1% all year long.

ECB was insane all along and still it.

A little "inflation" in real estate would have helped a lot.

Bunkerman said...

"hates Thanksgiving" ... uh a holiday declared by Washington on the formation of the US

... declared as a regular holday by Lincoln to commemorate the losses of those fighting slavery.

Really logical to "hate" it.

Bunkerman said...

September Chicago PMI 56.7 vs 53.0 consensus, prior 57.9

Bunkerman said...

Fed funds & Libor popping .. maybe Fed is letting pain go up to make the point.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman what would make you a buyer again sir?

Bunkerman said...

time and understanding for how all this might unfold.

The problem with hypothetical questions, like the one frosty asked yesterday, is that "what I don't know, I don't know".

So unexpected and unforeseen and unlikely events are impossible to plan for.

Bunkerman said...

I would need logical economic trajectory that is positive.

Bunkerman said...

The one I had was gutted yesterday ... eviscerated.

Bunkerman said...

Mrs. B bought a big amount of municipal bonds today for her Sky Fund.

Bud said...

Bman are you in favor of a complete ban on short selling?? ......say....for the rest of the year ....til we stabilize

Spin-em said...

" we luv ducks hate Thanksgiving...cuz Thanksgiving is about being grateful for the people around us... and we are selfish pricks who only care about ourselves"(stomp..stomp stomp)

looooooooooooool

mern said...

declared as a regular holday by Lincoln to commemorate the losses of those fighting slavery.

maybe that shud be mentioned more often.........

maybe change the name all together from thanksgiving to national anti KKK day.

id say 99% of american celebrates thanksgiving as a break of the bread with the indians for the first time.

what holiday do they have in germany that celebrates when the arians ate their first meal with jews?

we ate with them, took their land, raped their women, and then created a trail of tears.

and we celebrate that?

does palin believe in santa clause, imo, yep.

Katie Couric: Why isn't it better, Gov. Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families who are struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries; allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?

Gov. Sarah Palin: That's why I say I, like every American I'm speaking with, we're ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health-care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy, helping the -- it's got to be all about job creation, too, shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health-care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans. And trade, we've got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive, scary thing. But one in five jobs being created in the trade sector today, we've got to look at that as more opportunity. All those things under the umbrella of job creation. This bailout is a part of that.

CNN: But Dan Quayle wasn't very qualified and that didn't seem to matter, did it?

Zakaria: This is way beyond Dan Quayle. Quayle was a lightweight who was prone to scramble his words, or say things that sounded weird, but you almost always knew what he meant. One of his most famous miscues was to the United Negro College Fund when he said, "What a terrible thing to have lost one's mind. Or not to have a mind at all." Now he was trying to play off a famous ad that the group used to run, "A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Waste." And he screwed it up in a funny way. But read Gov. Palin's answers and it does appear that she doesn't have any understanding about the topic under discussion.

if anyone can please explain what she meant?

i think tina fey did a great job.

id vote for a mccain/fey ticket.

fey isnt completely out of her mind!

frosty, gotta say that email u sent me was pretty weak.

u can do better!

Bunkerman said...

interesting, I just deposited some large checks at my bank ... they are holding the funds a couple days longs than a larger amount about a few weeks ago ... and a couple years ago, much larger sums had no hold.

No change in my average balances.

Spin-em said...

"we ate with them, took their land, raped their women, and then created a trail of tears."

...and the award for best acting in a blog voted on by non posters goes to.......Johnny Drama's other brother..Marky


VICTORY!!!!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

I am no fan of "Turkey Day" as it is "celebrated" nowaways by many as a day of simple gluttony, but the concept of Thanksgiving Day as for family and friends to get together to celebrate and be thankful seems to be a good one, whether religious or not.

Bunkerman said...

as for short selling, I think with an uptick rule, they are welcome to bring it back - but must include derivatives, too, and syntheitc shorts via options.

Or prohibit firther shorts on any stock that falls more than a few % in one day - a "circuit breaker"

Bunkerman said...

no naked shorting - that was fraud.

mfl59 said...

VICTORY!!!

lmaoooooooooooooooo

Frosty said...

what bomb do non posters drop on us this afternoon...the spooks are lurking...I think they have been reading my mail.

Frosty said...

the latest forecast on Mars calls for morning fog and swift-moving winds--along with light snow...lance bass is building a bunker there...Bud, hearing he may need a man servant, wink wink.

Bud said...

wtf are you talkin about?? who the F is lance bass??

you really are f'ng wierdo

mfl59 said...

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/resources/2007/08/bass.jpg

Frosty said...

who the F is lance bass??

yes, that is the ticket...lance luvs coyish nubian slaves...a man after jim's heart, I think the job could be yours.

Frosty said...

Bunky must be taking a nap...to many bunktinis and a night on the couch will do that...lil slack Mrs B, been a long week already.

Spin-em said...

"The Ireland Plan"

G-mac....As of now..I am in control here......

Bunkerman said...

Not napping ... listening to lecture on Dante - I'll have to put out a new top ten list for Perdition.

Seems pointless to pay attention hourly right now.

Frosty said...

I no longer mark my portfolio to market...having a great day as a result...karachi market full speed ahead.

mfl59 said...

this kid that replaced Brian Sullivan on bloomberg is simply horrendous....he belongs with MAria and the freaks on cnbc

mfl59 said...

Does John Bogle read this blog?

"We need more investors and less speculators."

Bunkerman said...

well, he's right, but misses the problem being the trillions in hedge funds sloshing money around and causing fear.

Guess he doesn't know about them. Time to retire.

Bunkerman said...

hmmm it was very peaceful in my barn cleaning some long range equipment.

btw, allocated some cash to TIPs today in Krypto Fund - just asset allocation, as TIPs have fallen a lot.

Frosty said...

"trillions in hedge funds sloshing money around and causing fear."

so the fear yesterday was an illusion casused by beefers desinged to cause the rich to panic...sitting here more confused than my freind Bud.

Bunkerman said...

uh, frosty, is not it both fearful AND real - not an illusion - to discover your rifle is not loaded when being charged by a Bull Elephant ?

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh, that was soooo easy to plaster out over left field.

Bunkerman said...

Even my metaphor of "sloshing" fit - I suppose the fear is real when a tidal wave comes ones way.

Not talking about sloshing in a bathtub playing with a toy boat ...

;-)