Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Tidbit Tuesday

Big gain yesterday that was challenged midday by the beefer trading funds, but perhaps some real buyers emerged from their bunkers to take advantage of the dip. The US stock market closed quite strongly.

"Hedge funds are offering to cut fees if investors agree to stay put, in another sign of the changing power dynamics between funds and investors" - WSJ. Will the gullible rich continue to pay for the beefer shell game of "heads I win, tails you lose" to thousands of worthless hedge fund managers ? A fundamental problem for the market is the trillions of dollars being put into speculative, trading funds by the greedy rich, instead of into real investments.

Yesterday's WSJ had a story that European countries recognize that manufacturing in the US is very, very cheap when state incentives are taken into account. Also, I remember another story about how higher fuel costs are affecting "just-in-time" manufacturing tactics. This is part of the "adjustion" process that I wrote about a few weeks ago. High fuel prices will require many changes in standard operating procedures of the past decades. The smart and nimble will do well. The slow and dumb will probably go under or be taken over.

Polls now show Big John ahead of Obama. That's good news. Perhaps the American public is looking closer at the mountebank and recognizing his only skill is speechmaking?

My long term thesis for the big commercial banks gaining profitable market share is working out slowly. Over time, the FNM and FRE conservatorship will shift business to the big banks who will be able to raise prices as discredited competitors such as mortgage brokers have disappeared. Also, the big banks have stable, quality funding. I have large positions in BAC, C and JPM. The BAC and JPM positions now show fine profits. I was early on C, but it is closing in on the green, too.

I'll buy some AAPL if it goes under 150. I was early on GOOG in my 1/2 position and will be patient on topping it off. Otherwise, I expect to hold all positions for awhile

Word of the Day

"Chary" - adjective [$10]
Chary means 1. cautious, wary (chary of employing such people); 2. sparing, ungenerous (chary of giving praise).
Sentence: The common man and woman have regained their natural chary attitude to a politician that is all talk and no action, viz., Obama.

53 comments:

Frosty said...

AAPL watch it today bunky...people want to see job's at the conf and that he appears healthy...sick shit i know, but that is what the trade is about today, not the product line-up.

Frosty said...

meredith out on WFC, not good...yesterday lowered LEH from 2.70 this Q to .23, they report 9/18, good test Bunky to see if she is just blowing smoke.

mfl59 said...

Mrs B with a home run in MCD.....kudos.......

Bunkerman said...

I don't think LEH is a test for Meredith ... perhaps WFC.

Mrs. B has had quite a few winners, like BUD, too.

Bud said...

i guess i was wrong about the market

oh well

Bud said...

mr G comin on with maria at 4 today

shud be some good comedy

Bud said...

i thought we had seen the worst of the credit crisis in march...and then july

but action in LEH scares me

Bunkerman said...

I wonder who writes all those credit default swaps - who are the natural writers ?

I can understand that there are many natural buyers of credit protection. But who writes it in any size ?

It's quite like writing puts ... easy money until something goes wrog ... then disaster.

Bunkerman said...

And if one is a buyer, one would want a rather credit worthy counterparty.

That whole amrket makes little sense to me.

Frosty said...

Bunky you and Bud have it nailed...non posters want thier money back...simple I know...you guys over thinking perhaps.

Spin-em said...

hang in there Bud

mfl59 said...

damnit "jim"...do something to help Bud...

Spin-em said...

"Dammmit Jim..Im a doctor not a bellboy"...Bones McCoy

Frosty said...

Frosty said...
to big to fail vs to small to save the game now bunky...look at WM down 30% from the opening print.

September 8, 2008 8:19 AM

LEH would be the latter

Bunkerman said...

the problem with a firm like LEH, its principal assets (good people)go up & down the elevator every day and otherwise its reputation is all it really has, beyond book liquicdation value.

After three huge losses, reputaion is quite damaged.

And good people are certainly looking for a new home.

Bud said...

what does that mean??? were you sayin short LEH??

i don't get it


i'm sure the boot-licker will let us know

Bunkerman said...

LEH can't make any money on its securities held if its borrowing costs skyrocket.

Bunkerman said...

hence would bleed to death.

Bud said...

he's out today

and i'm havin a ruff day......shud have known

"hurry back jim !! "

Bud said...

Bman i think LEH is a bit more than rich man's panic

Bunkerman said...

I'm not short LEH nor would recommend a short unless one had steel fingers and big "onions"

Bunkerman said...

I suppose you meant frosty, Bud - usually my posts are in American English, vs. text message codes

Bunkerman said...

Since when does the world revolve around LEH ?

Its lenders & stockholders are likely panicking.

Bunkerman said...

Look, I've lived through many brokerage firm BK's - yawn ...

After a six months to prep, anyone losing $ on LEH has only self to blame.

Bunkerman said...

let it crumble

Bunkerman said...

Look, why would anyone trust LEH is if reports a huge loss this Q ? Three strikes and you're out.

They must have has a cluster cesspool of assets on their books, or their trading desk is out of control.

Frosty said...

"but action in LEH scares me"

"let it crumble"

what are you boys saying...buy LEH...text code me please.

Spin-em said...

see..ya cant be nice to these foreigners....he needs to be taped to a Daisy cutter and dropped off in the mountains from whence($10) he came...2 birds one stone...looool

mfl59 said...

no worries men...The Hills reruns will be airing on mtv in a few hours....

Spin-em said...

geesh not one word about Donny?....a lil gloating wouldnt be outta line..lol

Frosty said...

MBI needs to catch a bid this afternoon or that 12 gappa fills.

Bunkerman said...

In American English (with animal metaphors): For non-posters & posters, my opinion of LEH is to stay out away from that waterhole. Climb into a tree and let the beefers play in that pool - let them take risk of getting stomped or eaten by crocs.

;-)

Frosty said...

strahan needs a gappa fill...cowboys cowboys cowboys...who he think he is, tiki....ppffttt

Bunkerman said...

I bought a bit of AAPL as bait for Mr. Market to hammer it under 150. This is a "sacrifice" to those trading gods who always smash my initial buys lower.

Frosty said...

Bunky where are those short sale rules...your heros at the ppt need improved teamwork...Ben, infaltion coming in, where is the jawbone...hank can't hold off spiddy 1250 beefer bears all alone.

Bunkerman said...

I'm looking for them, too, frosty. I wonder if Cox is in the pocket of some beefers.

mfl59 said...

LEH earnings.....who's in? how bad can they be?

Frosty said...

LEH balance sheet smells like kimchi.

Spin-em said...

kimchi(sauerkraut Bud)

bad cabbage

Frosty said...

full disclosure...korean kimchi...gold mist straight up for a hyundai, rumor making the rounds.

Bunkerman said...

Apple's Jobs blames health scare on unnamed hedgefunds that are short Apple stoclk - CNBC ($153.01 -4.80) -Update

Nahhh .. that never happens

Spin-em said...

korean kimchi

if you ever watched M*A*S*H bud....the locals put cabbage in pots and bury it in the ground

mfl59 said...

bunkerman are you fully "loaded" on FCX yet?

mfl59 said...

I was just curious if you felt like buying more down here, re FCX....non-posters think I meant to insult you...not my style sir...

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm I guess OPEC reads this blog

OPEC President sees oil prices in $90-$100 range long term - Reuters

;-)

Bunkerman said...

Not full ... will buy more soon.

Bunkerman said...

but am in no rush.

mfl59 said...

beefer liquidation going on right before our eyes...simply no doubt...

bunkerman 1, "jim" 0

Spin-em said...

first a Jersey backhand then a pat on the back?....come onnn mike

Mr Miagi

cross road...K
no cross road?.K
think so......vrrrrrrttttt

lool

Bunkerman said...

I hope so ... they are the cause of this lunacy ... another "bubble" top burst - the beefer bubble.

Greedy rich to lose big.

The "free lunch" to get a big bill.

Garçon, l'addition.

Bud said...

MBI


"great call Bob"

Spin-em said...

now did that hurt?

Bud said...

why wud that hurt?? i made some money in that trade and now i can afford 2 slices and a coke for dinner


wow.....did i have a ruff day........gotta go wash the turban......it's full of sweat