Friday, September 19, 2008

A Failure of Ideology

This financial crisis provides a clear example of critical flaws in pure economic libertarianism.

First, economic libertarianism fails to account for rapid dynamics of financial markets. Rapid changes can be so fast that theoretical counter feedbacks cannot even begin to reverse the excess.

Second, it fails to treat zero point problems, namely, that when a firm goes bankrupt, it collapses to near nothing. Reversal – recovery - cannot occur.

Third, the human emotion of fear is ignored in economic libertarianism. While even political libertarians recognize fear of violence as creating a legitimate governmental role, economic libertarians ignore this in financial markets.

Fourth, economic libertarianism assumes many small players acting in free markets, while financial markets often have huge pools of money that can directly influence prices with their own actions.

For these four reasons – rapid dynamics, zero point error, fear and big money pools – economic libertarian simply does not to provide a “Square Deal” for the common man without a central power to ensure fairness.

Here is an example:

A congeries of beefers use instant messages to pass false rumors that Bank X has huge hidden losses or has lost key customers. They start buying put options on Bank X stock and then all place large orders for credit default swaps of Bank X. Without securing real borrows on the stock, they sell short huge blocks of Bank X common stock, pressing it lower and lower with any uptick respite. Without natural writers, the credit default swap market in Bank X is overwhelmed and its spread blows out, increasing funding costs hugely. Fear for the credit of Bank X is inferred from this huge increase. Little cash is needed to buy these derivative and cause this fear.

More rumors appear in the financial press as the stock price fall is noted and people wonder why. The rating agencies, in search of credibility, put the firm onto credit watch because of its stock price, not for any fundamental reason. Fear grows and spreads.

Bank X soon cannot borrow funds are reasonable rates and begins to bleed cash and customers. The stock falls furthers. There is no time for management to get facts out, which are hard to present and understand by sophomoric financial press anyway. Soon the firm’s losses of customers and cash withdrawals become critical and …

All this could occur as beefers with trillions of funds can and do overwhelm normal market activity. Economic libertarianism permits these huge pools of money to act like raiding Vikings, plundering staid, defenseless monasteries with impunity. In 9th century Europe, no central government existed with powers to stop them. A century of havoc ensued across Europe from France to deep Russia to Sicily to Ireland.

And without some central power to hold back these raiders, massive economic turmoil can hurt the common man for decades.

The US SEC has completely failed in its core mission, viz., to regulate the markets. The SEC seems to have become the sandbox of economic libertarians to build castles in sand. Or perhaps they – the commissioners and staff – are simply corrupt, wanting to be loved by the beefers and law firms where they expect high paying jobs next year.

From news reports overnight, the US SEC may finally be acting. Certainly the new rules on short selling fraud will help. The resistance to this is almost ludicrous. Can you imagine how high stocks would go if buyers could “buy” stocks, not deliver their cash, and yet maintain the position? Yet until today, short sellers could do the analogous: sell short shares, never deliver the stock and keep the position. Incredible. That shows the power of the beefers over the SEC and its staff. Only a crisis is breaking this tangle of corruption and foolish ideology. Fools or knaves … knaves or fools ... or both ?

Actions by the UK FSA has led the way on short selling. Early this AM, the banks in the UK are having huge rallies in their stock prices. And there are reports the US SEC might finally do something to stop the raids of beefers.

Can anyone imagine how much the common man has been hurt by this SEC foolishness and / or knavery ? Honest John McCain is completely correct. The SEC Chairman should be fired.

Markets

Huge rally yesterday. I have no regrets on those sales on Tuesday, by the way. Without those, perhaps I would have sold all my stock on that huge fall on Wednesday. As happened, I protected my most important positions and was clear minded to make a quite profitable trade in MS. And if Hank the Tank had not acted to create a 21st century Reconstruction Finance Corp., that rally yesterday would not have occurred. One really must "Protect Yourself At All Times" in an aggressive fund like my Alpha Fund.

I closed out the MS trade with a fine profit. I suppose hindsight would say I should have held it as the stock will likely rise a lot more today, but ... a 25% one day profit is OK.

I will watch today and think. I want to keep my Alpha Fund size down as it was quite distracting for me recently. I didn't like having to watch it so much for the past few months - it has greatly interfered with my semi-retirement.

PS: “Free Trade” is another failure of economic libertarianism. The problems of rapid dynamics, zero point, and big money (in that case, other nations) cause its failure to provide promised benefits to the common man.

PPS: Babblevision reports that the SEC has prohibited short selling in 799 financial stocks until October 2. Beefers use of this tool to create fear now in abeyance.

Word of the Day

"Moloch" - noun [$10]
Moloch means 1a. (Moloch) a Canaanite idol to whom children were sacrificed; 1b. a tyrannical object of sacrifices; 2. a grotesque spiny slow moving Australian lizard.
Sentence: How many good paying jobs and savings of the common man have been fed to the moloch of pure economic libertarianism ? Honest John McCain understands this as he called for the firing of SEC Chairman Cox. Obama ... nope.

78 comments:

Bud said...

the world leader and a visionary in stock markets and innovation.....

the Karachi stock exchange !!!

Bud said...

well Bman.......you turned out to be 1000% correct

the uptick rule and disclosures and regulations while important were really a sideshow

it's the hidden underworld of derivatives that has brought wall street to it's knees.......and they can be directly linked to ceo compensation

the ceo's approved these ultra risky 'trades' to get the stock up and cash out


'pigs at the trough'

Bud said...

uhhhhh.....


'hogs at the trough'

Bunkerman said...

lol both pigs & hogs feed at the trough.

pig = young hog.

Bunkerman said...

Karachi is now a verb in the financial lexicon !

Spin-em said...

I wonder if Vince Farrell likes this deal?

mfl59 said...

Appletinis on Cox tonight Bunkerman....

These guys love expiration day....lmaooooooooooooo

"no positions in the hedge fund"

here's your 2% sir, thanks for your help....

Bunkerman said...

out WM at close to breakeven.... uncomfortable with the takeover now.

Bunkerman said...

So when do the beefers roll out their puppet, Meredith again ?

My bet is at close Oct. 3

Bunkerman said...

For all his faults, Barney Frank is very smart ... not a slimy fool like Pelosi or Ried.

mfl59 said...

Warren Buffett once said.."If you want to short my stock...Ill lend you the shares....go right ahead"

Evaluate this statement Bunkerman...

Spin-em said...

This is like Oprah's xmas show....next up Hank will say..."look under your chair">...keys to a new F,GM for all....another problem solved NEXT!!!

mfl59 said...

lmaooooooooooooooo spin

When will the Bush administration make a mistake?

4 more years!!!

Spin-em said...

Hank loves a good op/ex shortf**kadoodle doesnt he?..page 2 in his playbook.....

Bunkerman said...

NY Post reports the JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is seeing the coffers of the bank he runs being filled with "billions of dollars a day" coming from hedge funds that have pulled their cash from Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS)


Looks like mern to be ultra busy.

Bunkerman said...

The statement of a comfortable man ... perhaps complacent.

Bunkerman said...

meaning the Buffet statement ... but will he print new shares for the short to sell ?

Bunkerman said...

Bogle sounds senile

Bunkerman said...

the core problem of too much money in hedge funds is still there.

But maybe the "rich" will wise up and pull the cash.

Bunkerman said...

gosh Ken Heebner must read this blog - he's talking my theory on the big fins.

Anonymous said...

"economic libertarians"?

Sorry, but what does the market behaviour of political capitalists have to do with libertarianism?

Bunkerman said...

There are ascpects of libertarianism in economic activity, the social life of people, the political structure of the government and in personal freedoms of speech, etc.

I added the adjective to make it clear that I am not attacking any form of social libertarian thinking in that blog.

I'll have to read what a "political capitalist" is. But be aware I really dislike that erm, "capitalist" and wrote a blog a few weeks ago how it is a marxist term that obfuscates much.

mfl59 said...

capitalism and free markets on the way up.....socialism on the way down....welcome to the new definition of "free market"

Bunkerman said...

On July 28, 2008 I wrote suggesting the word "Capitalism" be junked.

Bunkerman said...

back in an hour - have to take dogs to groomer.

Anonymous said...

I'll have to read what a "political capitalist" is. But be aware I really dislike that erm, "capitalist" and wrote a blog a few weeks ago how it is a marxist term that obfuscates much.

Absolutely agree. Hence my recent preference for the different 'flavours' in the article that I linked to.

Spin-em said...

its about time you spoke up patrick....welcome indeed sir..lol

Bunkerman said...

From your link, Patrick:
"Political capitalism (government run for a capitalist elite) has been a great evil. Everyone can see that, no matter what their rhetoric. But the evil has been in the politics and not in the capitalism. "

I guess your "capitalist elite" is part or all of what I attack as the rich and powerful - aka the ruling class - who use the power through government to gain "more".

But I really think the term capitalism should just be junked in toto and not modified with adjectives.

I do think there is "evil" in unfettered economic freedom as the rich & powerful - the big money pools - use that power to grind down the common man. They can drive him out of business, etc., buy up all the resources, etc. hence I favor regulations, etc. on the "top" - the rich & powerful.

In history the ruling classes have engorged themselves with land, money, power and created a aristocracy. I think that is creeping into US.

By the way, I don't particularly like the term "class" either but it seems to work OK. I lost a long discussion with a non-posting friend on that one, so I adopted it.

Frosty said...

Bunky...comrade hammerhank is willing to buy, are banks gonna be willing to sell...japs indeed, those that don't sell need to be smoked...bears will be released once agian to thin the heard...gun to the head indeed.

Bunkerman said...

In terms of argumentation, I think accepting / using the marxist label "capitalist" damages the case for many good parts of "capitalism" in the general debate.

Bunkerman said...

Thinning the herd has been part of my thesis for the big fins to rule & make bigger profits through less competition, etc.

Wider spreads to become the norm.

Credit to be priced to real risks.

No problem as long as raids are stopped. Eventually IFF there are real losses, the holders must lose money.

That is, IF.

I think marks today overstate real losses.

Bunkerman said...

patrick, I guess I agree with this quote from your conclusion:

"If, as I claim, the problem with discussing capitalism is that it is "semantically unstable" then we must stabilize both it and ourselves in order to move forward."

But my solution is to just junk that word.

That is a very erudite posting, btw. I tend to try to connect to real time events, hence neglect deep theory.

Frosty said...

Russia's two main stock exchanges, the RTS and the Micex, suspended trading for several hours Friday after stocks rallied by as much as 26%...oooppppsssssss

Pass the vodka...LMAOOOOOO...only Bud knows how to trade karachi style...sorry I ignored you...xoxoxo...your hurt feelings can only bring us closer together.

Spin-em said...

Can patrick get me Simon Cowell's autograph?....not for for...for Liz

Spin-em said...

good lord W willya go have lunch already

Spin-em said...

Alls he needs is his Mission Accomplished sign and flight suit

Bud said...

did Hank kill off 'ops expo' last nite ??

i think so........what's the next stupid strategy frosty will talk about

Bunkerman said...

verily, W cannot inspire confidence in anyone.

Anonymous said...

Can patrick get me Simon Cowell's autograph?....not for for...for Liz

Ha! I think he spends more time your side of the pond than mine these days.

Sorry for just leaping in unannounced earlier, BTW; I keep an eye out for the word "libertarian" popping up on blogs, for obvious reasons ;-)

Frosty said...

nononono mr karachi trader...you are our shining star...lead us to the promised land.

Honey you, you
you are my shining star
Don't you go away
whoa baby
Honey you, you
are my shining star
Don't you go away

Spin-em said...

Patrick Henry had 11 kids...(Groucho"talk about give me liberty")

Frosty said...

11:44 AM JPMorgan (JPM) CEO James Dimon tells his brokers anyone talking to Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) clients and/or employees, an apparent effort to drum up business on their woes, will be fired.

comrade dimon...what about the fing cheeseburgers.

Bunkerman said...

no problem re popping in ... I always told these guys there were many "non-posters" as readers and there were a lot more than 6 readers lolol

;-)

Frosty said...

Bunky...GE begs placement on karachi exchange...wtf, all aboard...you adding to your GE.

Spin-em said...

lets face it bunk..they dont come for your dry rusty jones junk...they come for the witty retorts and banter....it's the sizzle not the steak that puts flazz's in the seats

Spin-em said...

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.IM kidding of course..I was dared..tried for MVP...loooooool

Bunkerman said...

no I sold GE on Tuesday - posted it.

Can't buy for 30 days to avoid wash sale on loss.

ANyway, I'd rather keep more of BAC and JPM.

Bunkerman said...

haha ... there is a diversified reader base.

Bunkerman said...

btw I sold a bit of BAC at 37.

Had veryiest large postion with the under 20 adds.

Still too big ...

Bud said...

'rusty jones junk'


LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO


spin finishin the week strong



"go f'k yourself indeed"

Bunkerman said...

hmmm I wonder who "rusy jones" is ?

Btw, I can guess who "Simon Cowell" might be, but am not certain.

(guy on American Idol, which I've never watched ?)

Bunkerman said...

oops "rusty jones" ??

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman did Hank just put a bullett in the hedge fund industry? I would think many of these beefers are going to struggle in this brave new world...

Bunkerman said...

What did Hank do to Beefers ?

Bunkerman said...

Sure not what I'd do if I had the power.

Bunkerman said...

Gosh, the bears can still short the oils, yet they are going up.

Just is no logic on babblevision ... just crapparoni

mfl59 said...

over/under SPX 1300 by Dec 31 bunkerman?

Bunkerman said...

I'm not going to jinx anything.

Anyway, my former predictions sucked.

Bunkerman said...

but if I'm right about house prices, just can draw the correct conclusion.

Bunkerman said...

enjoy weekend ... going to barn

Spin-em said...

take care Bunk.... enjoy the martini and circus

Frosty said...

have a good weekend Bunky...don't worry about Bud, he won't be showing his face around here again...I hurt him bad.

mfl59 said...

Bunk enjoy.....tell Mrs B its time to get aggressive into year end...she's earned that right...

Bud said...

sea-pigeons laying 10 againts the rams

are you f'ng kidding me????


sea-pigeons shudn't be favored against frosty's hop scotch team

Spin-em said...

MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!



Thanks fellas...great weekend boys

Spin-em said...

thanks jim!!

Unknown said...

Bunkerman... can you offer any perspective on the safety (or lack therof ) in money market accounts at brokerages (e.g., Fidelity) in light of the Reserve Fund breaking the buck. How does one assess and can one trust the safety of these funds? tia

Unknown said...

An interesting repost of an explantion for the current shorting situation:

This is what a large hedge fund might do to profit from the currenty hysteria and the fact that the ratings agencies are often found caught flat footed and when they race to catch up, they are falling right into a trap.

Step 1
Buy a ton of CDS which is basically like shorting bonds. This can be done in size, and is a derivative product which is done off any sort of exchange and is only between two counterparties

Step 2
Secure a borrow on the underlying common shares by paying a large amount of money up front for a pre-borrow. These shares usually come from large pension funds and long term holders of stock

Step 3
Short the crap out of the stock but in a way that creates panic... don't just lean on it, appear as if there is real size behind it and talk to every institutional trading desk and advertise that you have size for sale

Step 4
reap the rewards once the ratings agencies watch the stock drop and change their ratings to reflect the lower possibility of the company raising equity due to a free falling share price. The CDS blows out, company goes bankrupt and the hedge fund makes a ton of money

Bunkerman said...

Money market funds with a brand name sponsor behind them, such as Fidelity are probably very safe. In the past whenever one has a loss on some investment that was even close to creating a problem, the sponsor has bought the troubled paper and kept the fund whole.

Obviously a money market fund that brags about its yield is probably pushing the envelop on investments.

If one has serious personal money in one - I suggest using a Treasury only money market fund, or perhaps Treasury + Agency fund. But if its just a cash sweep fund, just use a normal fund.

Even if it has a problem - ultra rare - your are really talking about 97-98 cents on the dollar - very small loss.

I use Vanguard Prime without worry. Mrs. B uses her broker's money market. For big money, I use a Treasury Fund. although part of the reason for that is to avoid state taxes.

Bunkerman said...

I believe money funds are rated, for what that's worth. To assess the risk oneself is probably hard as the investments roll over very often, so even the latest report is obsolete before you get it. A bfokerage firm like Ameritrade or big fund company like Fidelity would really have to make good on a money funds losses to get huge withdrawals.

But in extraordinary times, only a Treasury Fund is truly safe. Most fund companies offer those.

Bunkerman said...

agree re the manipulation opening, grant.

I really think the rating agencies should not follow market trends - a very bad development for all, including them.

They are looking more foolish than ever.

When I dealt with them for years, they had much integrity and skills. Now ...

Unknown said...

Thank You Bunkerman... one final question... how do brokerage money market funds rate in terms of riskiness relative to FDIC insured bank funds... i am assuming less safe but to what degree?

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman:

$700 trillion?

are you serious?

gold should open at $1000

Bunkerman said...

uh mfl ... $00 Billion .... you added three zeros.

Bunkerman said...

oops $700 Billion.

Let gold open at $1000 ... that's why Krypto Funds has its 5% in gold.

anyway, Treasury probably will make money as those assets they will be buying are at knockdown prices I'd expect private equity to bid for, too.

Bunkerman said...

FDIC insured CDs, and banks amounts (under $100,000) are completely safe. So if you use your broker to invest extra cash in brokered CDs at FDIC insured accounts, you are completely safe, too.


Broker money funds are going to be fine at regular brokers, but those at big investment banks obviously bear risk that the investment bank might not be able to bail them out.

So ones at BAC/MER will be fine, as would ones at places like JPM, C, Ameritrade, Fidelity, Vanguard, etc.

I have not follow Etrade per its bank-like part. No opinion.

At MS and GS, you bear risk the parent could not bail them out.

Bunkerman said...

$700 billion is not as big as it used to be.

And its not pure money printing as there will be assets to offset it.

Not same as printing money and digging holes to be filled up.

Bunkerman said...

btw, the "root cause" is still out there - the trillions of $$$ invested by misguided rich in hedge funds.

Those need strict regulation. Too big to permit them to slosh around disrupting the world.