That wonderful investment innovation, the hedge fund, continues to leave its scat all over the investment Universe. I suppose we can call them, "Sons of Portfolio Insurance", as their "professional" managers were supposed to provide steady, reasonable returns in any market. Such claims were sheer quacksalvery, as that is impossible in the size for which they were paid colossal sums. And now that they have predictably failed "in the crunch", the rich are panicking. I suppose they are afraid they will have to give up that art collection ... or the helicopter to the Hamptons ... or ... gasp ... have to go back to work.
Certainly the mega-genius hedge fund managers and traders and derivative gurus fear they might have to learn a new profession. So they are panicking in a pulsing stampede which reappears whenever some fear can be conjured ... or re-conjured ... or re-re-conjured.
Such happened yesterday, as fears of a "Recession" were touted as causing selling. Uh ... have not the pundits been saying the US recession began in the first days of 2008 ? So are they wrong now or wrong then or ? They cannot be right in both instances, as that is a "disjunctive" [aka either - or] syllogism.
FT: "Investors pulled at least $43bn from US hedge funds in September as market turmoil led to unprecedented withdrawals, an analysis by a leading research house shows. The data from TrimTabs Investment Research – which was to be sent to clients late on Wednesday – come as hedge funds are working to prevent far bigger redemptions by the end of the year, when many funds give investors a chance to take out money." ...
"The chief executive of a leading alternative investment manager said he expected the hedge fund industry to shrink by 50 per cent in coming months – with half the decline coming from withdrawals and half coming from investment losses." ...
"JPMorgan Chase has estimated that hedge fund outflows could total up to $150bn over the coming year. As investors take their money out of hedge funds, the funds have to sell assets.
But because they use so much borrowed money, the amount of potential asset sales is far larger. For example, JPMorgan expects that an outflow of $150bn will lead to sales of about $400bn. "
So we should expect the wild rides to continue. Beware of excessive margin.
Hmmm ... I see the President of France reads this blog. I see he has called for regulation and supervision of hedge funds.
Books
Civil War Soldiers by Reid Mitchell provides a huge collection and synthesis of actual opinions, views and fears that Union and Confederate soldiers included in their letters home. These are first hand accounts of that war, which was the first industrialized, modern war in the world. I finished reading this book in my home town last week and rate this book 5 stars.
Word of the Day
"Transvalue" - verb, transitive [$10]; and "Transvaluation" - noun.
Transvalue means to re-estimate the value of, esp. on a basis differing from accepted standards; reappraise; reevaluate.
Sentence: Transvaluation of mortgage securities to a long term, hold to maturity basis determined from actual losses and cash flows from the current panic sale pricing should help lenders begin to make new loans to home buyers by preventing instant "mark-to-market" losses on performing loan pools.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
55 comments:
quaksalvery
that must be an old word......don't hear it used
good one
this recession is not 'rich man's panic 2008'
no way
housing was in a bubble.....it popped......and now comes all the collateral damage
french president is sharp.........and you converted me too
hedge funds need to be regulated......and credit default swaps need to be outlawed ( at least as they are defined now )
$2.38/gallon coming to a station near you....cept mav(who requires extra refined special gas)
yes, it is old. I got it from H. L. Mencken, the famous writer form the 1910-1935 period.
the stock market mess and much of credit market mess is the rich man's panic.
housing bubble was real, though.
btw, hedge fund "investments" in CDO equity and subordinated classes permitted the subprime & Alt-A bubbles to exist in the first place.
have the bunky half track as the background on my computer screens now...loool
lol
$43 billion in beefer withdrawls in September alone, per Financial Times.....prolly a similar # coming in October....how much is left Bunkerman?
gas not important spin...I'm getting a new coach...interim coach already has the boys jacked and on the right track...look out yellerjackets
Abby?...Is that a KSS outfit???
added to CVX, DVN, FCX, RIG, JOYG, EXM, GNK.
Beware I often have "addearlyitis"
is that 200% long bunkerman?
Bunky...do have a skim tree sir.
Philly Fed -37.5...oh man
nothing but crackheads and bums in that city...
Mern turning into Nostradamus...
i like the phillies alot
in the world series.....doesn't matter who they play
donnie who ?? cole hamels is the new sheriff
city of champions indeed
that was pretty sweet last night. u have to be happy for charlie manuel!
loved how he went how to hamels and got the skinny and stuck with his ace.
this is one tight team right now, but the rays r fucking gud.
wasnt the 4th q negative? and when the 1st gets revised, that will be 2 q, ie a recession.
anyone notice that hank paulson said about 3 weeks ago, putting money into bank stocks was admitting they failed and we wud never do that..............
what a mess, much worse than even i expected.
i guess this is what happens when u have a dimentia led fed from 98-05, that believed even a small recession is bad. at the same time, i guess he knew that everyone was on butter 40 to 1. and in fannies case 65 to 1.
and frank raines is playing golf right now. rich man panics indeed.
i dont think its the rich people killing themselves as the cops try to evict u from your home of 65 yrs, like the 90 yr old women in ohio.
pass the dark meat.
the biggest lie ive ever heard.
hiliary saying to no to a run in 2012.
i dont know how, but i honestly expect to see her name on the ballot, in a few weeks.
even if she has to steal every ballot and scrath the dark meat out and write in HILDOG
WOOF WOOF!
looking at the states that are leaning to mcidiot and the anti christ. wondering if it a co inky dink that most of the states they will take, fought to be slavery alive and well.
for sure in florida, every trailer park is loaded with mcfucked posters.
nice base that repub party has. pro life, except if u r alive already. trailer trash. 80 yr old women scared of that muslim.....
and about 300 old white men, afraid to pay more in taxes.
what really is a head scratcher is that obama will make it easier for the white T to work the system, but they want to vote for the same tangent that just ass fucked for 8 straight yrs.
well they live in trailers for a reason.
here is a gud one.
at soccer practice last night, a guy i barely know walks up to me, and says" u know u curse a lot............ when was the last time u went to church?" ( i swear to god!)
i just looked at him for a few seconds and it came to me. "when was the last time i told u to go fuck yourself?" and walked away. and the rest of the night, anytime i got near him i wud just say " i am going god damn mother fucking church after practice, u coming?"
the elbow into my jaw near the end was far from surprising.
actually that still hurts
ROFL
are you off your medication these days ??
and the bible thumpers who prayed for lower gas. CONGRATS!
be careful what u wish for.
ya its 15 to 20 bucks to fill up, but your 401k just went bust and u will never retire.
r they praying for a rally yet?
maybe palin didnt have all the witches soul removed at her penecostal church.
the world has really gotten shitty she people outside of alaska have met her.
utube her dropping the puck at the flyers home opener. they booed mike schmidt and santa, so what did she expect?
but i still want to bang in her, in church, in front of a priest watching kiddy porn (the priest, not me, watching the kiddie porn)
love working for the govt, half day, today, with full pay.
thx for the bailout!
lol
actually yes, cindy gone, stress gone...........
still take blood pressure medicine but of the lexapro and valuim.
but i am drinking more
many billions left to come out of beefers.
"but i still want to bang in her, in church, in front of a priest watching kiddy porn"
sounds like something for pay per view...
no, not 200% - about 160% long
MERN'S WORLD
scene from Taxi driver
You talkin’ to me? Youtalkin’ to me? You talkin’ to me? Then who the hell else you talkin’ to? You talkin’ to me? Well, I’m the only one here.
Frosty, what is a skim tree ?
The local United Way office realized that it had never received a donation from the town's most successful lawyer. A local volunteer calls to solicite his donation, saying "our research shows that even though your annual income is over a million dollars, you do not give one penny to charity! Wouldn't you like to give back to your community through The United Way?"
The lawyer thinks for a moment and says: "First, did your research show that my mother is dying after a long, painful illness and has huge medical bills far beyond her ability to pay?"
Embarrassed, the United Way rep mumbles, "Uh, no."
"Secondly, that my brother, a disabled veteran, is blind and confined to a wheelchair and is unable to support his wife and six children?"
The stricken United Way rep begins to stammer an apology but is cut off.
"Thirdly, that my sister's husband died in a dreadful traffic accident", the lawyers voice rising in indignation, "leaving her penniless with a mortgage and three children?"
The humiliated United Way rep, completely beaten, says simply, "I had no idea."
The lawyer then says"...and if I don't give any money to THEM, why should I give any to you?"
lol, as teh rpices fall, the cost of the adds goes down.
No add to JPM.
oh yeah........beefer ping-pong is back !!!!!!
Bman be careful what you wish for
the more hedge funds go out of business........then who is going to take you out of your longs at higher prices ??
the real buyers ?....but wait....i thought they only bought dips
I expect mega billions sitting in cash will be buuying every dip in the next huge bull market.
until the beefers - most at least - get liquidated, a true bull market is impossible due to their antics.
We need more long only investing & less beefer trading.
but I did get my wish, Bud, and it was and is a bit painful.
Krypto Fund gains for 2006 & 2007 gone now.
'long only investing'
you mean .....buy and hold ???
oh no
loooooooooooooooooooooool
"saving souls from buy and hold"
raw land!!!!
GOOG tonite.....what you say mr mern ??
hold on......did someone call mern 'nostradamus' today ??
so fading him too dangerous now.....never mind
I think buy & hold with re-allocation still works.
Krypto Fund is about 14% better than pure buy & hold YTD.
Beating many/most hedge funds.
Bud quit the team before he even had an at bat......
yes mern has been quite hot.....fade at your own risk...
Hmmm raw land ... good for sheep herding (pasture) or driving a half-track around or for a bunker (forest) or for a MG range (deep hills)
did I just hear a guy on bloomberg say a lot of this selling is hedge funds taking profits???? uhhh sir...
uhhh.....i couldn't understand 86% of bob's emails.......was that a buy sell short or what ??? and schiano's boy wasn't much better.......he pays way too much attention to the telly......who cares what an analyst says.......i cudda stayed in the pool if i wanted catcalls from the cheapseats
what the F does dark sugar mean anyway ?? short more ?? i guess i'm missing somethin
and of course by the time i got the OIH email..........you guys were already dancin in the end zone
'curtain call bob'
Bman how low do you think crude goes to in the next 6 months ??
fall & spring are seasonal lulls.
Up into winter to $100, then spring depends on the economy in China, US, Europe.
I suspect recent weakness is mostly destocking to buy lower rpices.
When that ends ...
dark sugar = taking profits on shorts, I guess.
can you imagine how dumb RTP's management/board must feel at this point in time? good call on their "knavery" Bunkerman...
yes, mfl.. That guy running RTP looked like a sleaze to me.
welcome back beefers....where have you been ?
or are these real buyers ??
long only investing indeed
Mrs. B & I are probably the only real buyers left on earth
sounds like a sci-fi story
Us vs. a world of beefers.
armored half-track fully loaded vs. the evil ones.
Bunkerman as Mad Max. ... a likeness ??
lol mad max
Bman you remind me of the spy v spy series....thoses were great
Congrats on the Phils Merny..bring it home
Post a Comment