Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Time to Look Forward

Looking around for more problems seems wrong now, as the major world governments finally seem to have done their duty to maintain a modern financial system. The Panic of the Rich seems almost played out, based on the evidence for huge hedge fund redemptions. One should not forget that the trillions in hedge funds are the "root cause" of all the froth and bubble of the past five years. So their liquidation is the "reactionary destruction" needed to clean the stables and restore normality.

Maybe it's time to take a breather and just wait a few months to see what damage has been done and how well the world economies can move forward. Naturally I'm optimistic as the free peoples of the world will tend to work freely to improve their individual lives. Collectively this provides a tail wind of about 3% growth or better. Government malfeasance can ruin that, so "constant vigilance" is necessary.

Fall is a beautiful season here in New England. I plan to try to enjoy it more and spend less time in front of the computer monitors.

I read that The Ostrich aka Trichet of the ECB talks about a new "Bretton Woods" agreement. Uhhhhh .... that was a US dollar based gold standard. Is he abdicating or delusional seeking more power ? The most glaring instance of governmental failure in this crisis has been the ECB.

I think my recent blog posts have been too long, so will try to be more succinct. But sometimes the words just flow out so easily.

Word of the Day

"Dystopia" - noun [$10]
Dystopia means a nightmare vision of society , often as one dominated by a totalitarian state. (Opposite of "utopia")
Sentence: The libertarian purists who worship the gods of the "free market" are now ranting about a market dystopia due to the governmental interventions that have solved the crisis. Are they delusional ? Or simply blinded by ideology ?

35 comments:

Bud said...

i'm not so sure how 'free' the free peoples are gonna be

i am very fearful of the new US government of obama-pelosi-reid

forget about the new regulatry environment.....they will go too far for sure

but i think one of obama's core beliefs is income redistribution.....he has mentioned it on the campaign trail ......if he is saying it now .......i know he means it

blacks are going to vote in record numbers for him.......he will pay them back.........welfare checks are going to be paid for with higher ( and new) taxes of all sorts

Bud said...

uhh.......i have a radio....i have a tv.....i have internet access

i don't really need a 'private email' from a yankee fan tellin me the rays are up 3-0


die yankees die !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bud said...

great job theo.....trade away the best player on the team for a journeyman.......big papi has no protection now..........oh yeah.....jason bay is agood player ..pffffffffffffft


die theo epstein die !!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

I expect a lot of demonizing by the O-P-rE clan. But they have to get a lot of middle-of-the-roaders to go along.

I am wary.

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm Mrs. B passes on adding to PEP, but buys more KO.

A bit psychic ?

Bunkerman said...

and got more JNJ before earnigns, too.

A Hat Trick.

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm looked up theo epstein ... now I get it.

Red Sox did that move in late 1970s - traded all good players to save on salaries.

Team languished for a few years.

Bud said...

i'm actually quite bullish on the stock market right now

caution: last time i was this bullish.....i think was in july.....and we fell about 400 points in the spoos

Bunkerman said...

hmm Mrs. B had ABT, too.

Spin-em said...

I read where inter-bank lending hasnt been this bad since the end of the Carter administration...Bunk..will this happen down the road into the McCain presidency? CDs 18%..lol

Mortgage rates

Jan-1977 8.72%
Feb-1977 8.67%
Mar-1977 8.69%
Apr-1977 8.75%
May-1977 8.82%
Jun-1977 8.86%
Jul-1977 8.94%
Aug-1977 8.94%
Sep-1977 8.90%
Oct-1977 8.92%
Nov-1977 8.92%
Dec-1977 8.96%
Jan-1978 9.02%
Feb-1978 9.16%
Mar-1978 9.20%
Apr-1978 9.36%
May-1978 9.58%
Jun-1978 9.71%
Jul-1978 9.74%
Aug-1978 9.79%
Sep-1978 9.76%
Oct-1978 9.86%
Nov-1978 10.11%
Dec-1978 10.35%
Jan-1979 10.39%
Feb-1979 10.41%
Mar-1979 10.43%
Apr-1979 10.50%
May-1979 10.69%
Jun-1979 11.04%
Jul-1979 11.09%
Aug-1979 11.09%
Sep-1979 11.30%
Oct-1979 11.64%
Nov-1979 12.83%
Dec-1979 12.90%
Jan-1980 12.88%
Feb-1980 13.04%
Mar-1980 15.28%
Apr-1980 16.33%
May-1980 14.26%
Jun-1980 12.71%
Jul-1980 12.19%
Aug-1980 12.56%
Sep-1980 13.20%
Oct-1980 13.79%
Nov-1980 14.21%
Dec-1980 14.79%
Jan-1981 14.90%
Feb-1981 15.13%
Mar-1981 15.40%
Apr-1981 15.58%
May-1981 16.40%
Jun-1981 16.70%
Jul-1981 16.83%
Aug-1981 17.29%
Sep-1981 18.16%
Oct-1981 18.45%
Nov-1981 17.83%

Spin-em said...

Now he's gunna cry about Manny spilt milk......LMAOOOOOOOOO

YAZ

WILLIAMS

FISK

BAY???(I think so)

GO SOX GO!!!!!

Bud said...

oh no !!!

spin just went yard on me



lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Spin-em said...

"Team"...pffftttt.....theres no I in BUD but theres a big fat all about "U"

Spin-em said...

I said to frosty the fall foliage was peaking here....just beautiful.... and he got all snarky.....lmaoooooooo

Spin-em said...

Can somebody get Byron a couch and a coffee table to put his feet on???

Bunkerman said...

McCain Presidency ?

gosh that stuff in PA must be potent.

Late 1970s saw massive money printing for a long, long time. I think Fed will swab this money up fast once economy gets moving again.

Also, demographics of credit demand are not strong now, vs. late 1970s with baby boomer household formation.

mfl59 said...

Bud what makes you so bullish sir?

Spin-em said...

rising mortgage rates??? wth??? does Bob Pisani read this blog??

Bunkerman said...

going to PRC ... Peoples Republic of Cambridge for a few hours.

Need some books.

Bud said...

uhhh.......maybe i'm not so bullish after all.....some very poor retail numbers


back to the ping-pong table

Spin-em said...

Enjoy the fall foliage bunk....lol

Bud said...

good speech by Ben

great job by bernanke and paulson thru this crisis

Bunkerman said...

got back from Harvard Square - gosh that place has yuppified hugely.

At least an old favorite book store was open & well stocked.

I did my share to support the US economy last two days.

mern said...

wow seems like yrs, boys, non posters, bob and sal.

didnt read much but i looked deeply at just what occurred and made calls to family tues morn at 6am.

simply said, take 9800 and get the fuck out! hung up.

this is the dumbest thing ive ever seen this country do, and that is saying something.

i know work for the govt. cant see any conflicts of interest there.

maybe we bottom at 8k and flatline, but this is not gonna help the economy long term, it makes things worse.

who was that that predicted obama was a lock in feb?

oh thats right, i put money on it. 100 to win 485..........

hamels finishes off dodgers tonite.

if rays come through, IM GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES TO SEE MY PHILLIES.

also signed a petition to have man boobs (andy reid) fired!

i swear i cud coach better than him! at least offensive plays. he used to be unpredictable. now i know what coming from the formation.....

as expected the dead shit the bed at the obama rally, but i heard the allmans were on fire.

warren haynes sux!

Frosty said...

gesh about time Mern...been pumping smoke like a cally wildfire...way to stay in touch with freinds and family, sounds like ya had a nice chat.

Bud said...

something wrong with my email today......i'm on some sort of delay......and then i get 26 at once


oh yeah.......nuthin wrong with the morning emails


BIDU pffffffffffffffft

Bunkerman said...

must be some liquidation from insurance companies in some municipal bonds.

Or muni bond mutual funds.

Mrs. B's broker is seeing more & more sales at foolish prices.

She is buying slowly.

Spin-em said...

cant figure that one out.....maybe its Aol Bud...either way its a real dick slapper...lol

mfl59 said...

What books did you pick up Bunkerman? anything we might be interested in?

Bud said...

every bank stock gettin pummelled on my screen today.....down 5 - 6- 7

except ....uh....STI

Bud said...

good prediction mern on the mooly-nan president

are you still predicting the great depression II ??

Bunkerman said...

all books on learning French

Bunkerman said...

these huge moves on oils, etc. up & down are just ridiculous.

7-12 pts ? nuts.

Bunkerman said...

maybe I should post more books that I've beejn reading. Just finished a few good ones.

That might be a pleasant change over writing about this psychotic market.

mfl59 said...

perhaps a "book of the week" entry is called for.....