Tuesday, October 7, 2008

A "United States of Europe" is needed

WSJ: "EU Fights Irrelevance in Crunch"
Perhaps the nations and people of Europe will now learn the lesson that the leaders of the American States did in 1787. A unified national government with a moderately strong executive is essential for actions in times of crisis. Perhaps Europe will finally just copy the Constitution of the United States, make a few modifications for their inherent multilingual nature and implement it.

The unelected, unaccountable - even unappointed and unconfirmed - Trichet the Ostrich continues to say he's done everything and it's now a political problem. What a fool ! His delusion of fighting the phantom of inflation perhaps reaches back to Don Quixote jousting with windmills thinking they were giants in his clouded mind.

Russia lends Iceland $5 billion to stave off bankruptcy. That is a geopolitical loan. Iceland is strategically located in the North Atlantic at a critical point for Russia's fleet to break into the Atlantic. I presume KGB thinker Putin is plotting something.

Australian central bank cuts rates. Good. A start.

The Bank of England needs to lower rates buy a large amount - to 2% The ECB needs to cut rates to 2%.

The Fed will now pay interest on reserves at 75 bps under the overnight Fed funds rate. Good. So the banks will no longer just invest in T-bills, which now yield less. And banks obviously will earn more money.

Speaking of banks, BAC greatly disappointed me yesterday. But at least I had taken counsel of my fears after the MER acquisition when Ken Lewis said that all ways to raise capital were on the table. And he proceeds to cut the dividend by 50% to fund part of the MER purchase. What a jerk ! He builds his edifice now with the pain of his shareholders. At least I had sold. Whew !

Here are two lessons - one already learned and one just learned -
1. In a bull market do NOT take counsel of your fears. Hold good stocks for big gains.
2. In a bear market DO take counsel of your fears. Many bugs appear when the one picks up the rocks. And that bullet being "bitten" can become well-chewed.

WB taught me #2 - a painful lesson. But that learning saved me a lot of $$$ when a fear was conjured in my mind about BAC after the MER acquisition.

What is it with these banks like BAC and C who want to make big acquisitions while cutting dividends ? Do their leaders think the shareholders are mere serfs who cannot leave the manor after a pay cut ?

So now JPM is my sole bank of choice to re-buy at a good price. WFC seems a bit expensive and is now mud wrestling C over WB. I'll stay out of that mess.

Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen about 800 pts when I put my Bunker buy program in place and got some good prices on my stocks. Alpha Fund is now 100% long again.

My list: CVX, DVN, RIG, FCX, BHP, AAPL, GOOG, DRYS, EXM, GNK, and a bit of MBI. At a good price after the short sale rules are lifted, I'd like to buy some JPM. I figure the beefers will knock the banks down and give me JPM at a good price.

Word of the Day

"Cad" - noun [$10]
Cad means a person (esp. a man) who behaves dishonorably.
Sentence: Ken Lewis, the CEO of BAC, has become Cad of the Week, by making his shareholders pay to satisfy his "Edifice Complex" as he buys MER and then cuts the dividend by 50%.

Note: "Edifice Complex" is a pun on Oedipus Complex, a Freudian diagnosis drawing on the character Oedipus in the plays of Aeschylus who fulfilled a prophesy to kill his father and marry his mother.

48 comments:

Bud said...

Bman please explain why the Ostrich should cut rates right now ?? i hear it on tv and in the papers everyday

are rates really the issue right now ?? isn't cheap money what got us into this mess

Bud said...

uh Bman......i guess you haven't been reading the journal or the ft

you are grossly overestimating the power of these so-called beefers

they can't knock down anythin right now......they are in full survival mode

mfl59 said...

Some of the losses by big name beefers are staggering....

Tontine Partners down 65%

many down 30-40%

even Greenlight Capital...led by David Einhorn, who rode LEH to 0...they are down 17%....

mfl59 said...

seems like it is beefers puking longs rather than shorting...must be redemptions out the wazoo...

perhaps the "dumb rich
" are finally reading this blog

Bunkerman said...

easy: ECB overnight rate is 4.25%. That means money is tight in Europe in euros.

Tight money in time of no inflation and financial crisis. Grade is "F-"

High rates are hurting Euroepan business.

The Ostrich has been fighting the wrong war for a long time. ECB could not control price of oil and they were looking at the wrong measure of inflation. Core is correct.

This is part of the reason that Europe entered a real recession before the US. Tight money in euros.

Bunkerman said...

I suspect some big beefers like Paulson & co are salivating at shorting fins again.

There were 7000 beefers. Fine, maybe 1000 are gone. Good.

just about 6000 to go.

Perhaps some survive with heavy regulation & capital requirements.

Bunkerman said...

I hope so, mfl, and they don't follow the wipe-out managers to a new fund like idiots.

Bunkerman said...

ECB overnight rate should be 2%, not 4.25%

rates don't matter in US now, but they do matter in Europe in euros.

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm new BAC dividend is $.32/Qtr = $1.28/yr.

At 5% yield, stock is worth $25.60

Nice job, Ken - gutting your own shareholders.

Grand Cad.

Frosty said...

ken is in the pocket of his beefer masters...why the shock and surprise...don't you read your own blog sir.

Spin-em said...

LETS GO RAYS
LETS GO RAYS
LETS GO RAYS



(dont know one guy on the team but who cares..lool)

YAZ TED MANNY(get lost)BUCKNER

Frosty said...

Bud...double load point SSO.

mfl59 said...

We also likened the CDS market to portfolio insurance before the 1987 crash, which was not tested until liquidity conditions turned for the worst...

Thoughts on this statement Bunkerman?....

Spin-em said...

Mrs B your thoughts on the super- collider s'il vous plaƮt?

Bud said...

no SSO for me today..........i had a sweaty day in that yesterday

had to change my turban 3 times

Bud said...

Bman what do you think of these ultrashort etf's ?

are they bad for the market ?? increase volatility and beefer games ??

Bunkerman said...

mfl ... sounds like something I wrote about a while back.

CDS is an idiotic concept.

Ditto derivatives on CDO/CLO indices.

Foolish concepts and products.

Bunkerman said...

Yes, Bud, I think those trading ETFs - ultra short, long etc. are a bad idea. Heck I think they are based on derivatives anyway.

All that crap should be eliminated.

I suppose an untra-short based on S&P 500 is OK or another futures index.

But no sector ultra shorts.

Bunkerman said...

I'll have to ask her specifically, spin - she is at sheep herding now.

But in many similar cases, she has thought those giant experiments are really a waste of money and suck all the science $$$ to the engineers, leaving little for the actual scientists who really need some support for independent thinking.

mfl59 said...

is Ben serious with all this talk on inflation?

shave the beard dammit!!!

Frosty said...

Bunky...you like minners,take a look at JOYG foward pe 8...buying back half the stock...know you warned about buy backs, are all buy backs evil.

Bud said...

is this a depression ??

Bunkerman said...

Daily Graphs says they have 55% debt.

A cyclical should not have much leverage.


BHP has 2008 PE of 8x, 24% debt.

FCX has 2008 PE of 5x, 39% debt.

JOYG might be fine with that big buyback, but check the debt maturities.

To expand, I really think buybacks can be OK - even very good moves - at really low stock prices IFF no debt problems

Bunkerman said...

that BAC move caused today.

Thanks Ken.

Bunkerman said...

I wonder if JPM buys MS ?

Bunkerman said...

but perhaps that Mitsuibishi investment prevents that.

mfl59 said...

aren't low PE ratios in cyclical stocks usually a sell signal instead of a buy signal?

Frosty said...

Daily Graphs says they have 55% debt.

Bunky is that net of cash?...sure they finance, as long as the miners pay thier tab.

mfl59 said...

welcome back Bud.....

Bunkerman said...

uh mfl ... it's a bit late to sell those.

buying Chrysler at 2x in 1982 was a buy of a lifetime - made Peter Lynch's career ...

Frosty said...

Bud...SSO 37.17...are you with me karachi...we can riot on a rinse to new lows.

Bunkerman said...

maybe that midday drop was more beefer liquidations ?

mfl59 said...

uh Bunkerman I believe it was Peter Lynch who said that in his book about low PE's on cyclicals sir....

Bunkerman said...

don't know, frosty. Will look.

Bunkerman said...

well, I think it depends on where the stock is vs. its earnings.

I usually look at the Blue Book charts that have 12 years of data for P and E and Div.

FCX PE was 15x when stock was at 140. Now is PE is 5x and stock is at 40-45. Btw, in 2004, FCX has loses & stock was around 42, too. Then in 2005 when PE was about 11, stock rocketed as E did too.

So that is a counter-example to the "rule".

Bunkerman said...

JOYG has $3/sh cash, jsut $9/shre long term debt.

Other current liabilities well-covered.

Looks OK.


I wonder if I buy some if that will mush it ?

Risk is IFF miners cut orders, IF they can.

Bunkerman said...

funds are bigtime distributors of JOYG - everything else, too lololol

Daily Graphs A/d is D-

Bunkerman said...

I think I buy a starter in it. Fits my thesis & complements RIG in mining.

thanks frosty, for the idea.

ooooo a four letter stock ...

mfl59 said...

yes good stuff Bunkerman....

JOYG a beefer favorite indeed

Bunkerman said...

bot some JPM under 41. A re-buy.

Bud said...

listen to me 44-6

i'm never gonna be with you.......you need a friend.......call larry craig.....or get a goat


you f'ng queer

Frosty said...

Bunky...thanks for the help, starter JOYG buy on close.

Frosty said...

uh Bud...sorry busy...no time for a reach around...give you a lil attention later, hold your water.

Bunkerman said...

lovely close.

Thanks Ken, you cad.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman, Frosty...you guys have lived through bear markets...have you ever seen anything like this?

Frosty said...

hhhmmm...Bunky, it appears Mr Hunt looking for the cage match..."come on, will bounce both you heads off the turnbukcle."

mfl59 said...

nonononono sir...looking for sage wisdom of grizzled vets...

Bunkerman said...

To me, this seems not too different than 1974, 1981 or 1987. The details differ, but the deluge of rotten news, greed & fear, poor decisions & stock/bond falls isn't too far off.

By the way, in 1980-81 the turmoil in the Treasury bonds & corporate debt markets was huge. Those periods had huge commodity market turmioil, too.

The cures are different here, as the diseases are differnt, too.