Monday, December 8, 2008

A New Reader

I guess I have a new reader, viz. Obama, or perhaps his advisors. Maybe, or maybe this is just Tim Geitner passing on my ideas. [ joke ;) ]

From FT this morning: "Barack Obama on Sunday spelled out his plans for the biggest infrastructure investment in the US for half a century. The president-elect argued that with the economy reeling, his incoming administration could not afford to worry about a spiralling budget deficit. Mr Obama’s proposals for government works on roads, bridges, Internet broadband and school buildings, together with energy efficiency measures and health spending ..."

They are proposing almost everything I did except direct housing market suport, but I suspect they will do something to aid that market, too.

I'd like to see money spent on high speed rail between major cities less than 300 or 400 miles apart, instead of this wasted money on"alternative energy". "Alternative energy" has been a bottomless pit for over 30 year for crackpot schemes to violate either the laws of economics or the laws of physics or both.

Markets

Futures are up substantially so far this morning, perhaps a relief rally that Obama might not screw this up.

The concerns about corporate spreads are misguided. In my long experience of placing secured notes of corporations with institutions, absolute level of the rate is very important. Long term lenders really do not want to make long term, investment grade loans under 6%. They prefer to wait.

I also read with amusement that the credit default swaps rates of numerous nations is rising, including the US. What a fraud ! Who is going to pay off those swaps in such a catastrophe ? Those are just credit betting parlors and that whole "market" is a joke. Anyway, a credit default swap bears two risks, viz. the counter party AND the named credit. How does one distinguish that ? Credit default swaps should be banned from the financial system. Only those backed by regulated insurance contracts and hard capital should be permitted.

Word of the Day

"Irrefragable" - adj [$10] a Mrs. B word
Irrefragable means 1. (of a statement, argument or person) unanswerable, indisputable; 2. (of rules, etc.) inviolable.
Sentence: An irrefragable truth about General Motors is that its top managers and management culture has been a disaster for that company for at least 15 years, perhaps as long as 40 years.

31 comments:

maverick said...

So is our White House gonna smell like a friggin bar after barry moves in. Man up barry...show us your talent and "change". A lil stogie for billy meant something but for you it is just a nasty habit.

mfl59 said...

settle down mern....they still ain't making the playoffs....

omg was it cold at the Stadium yesterday....I still can't feel my toes....

maverick said...

Bowl results could be very ugly for the Big 10

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm ... what are Obama's vices ?

Bud said...

does lazlo birinyi read tthis blog ?? on bloomberg this morning


" time to get out of the bunker mentality and buy some stocks "

Bunkerman said...

still making my list ...

I wonder about CHK now ? Still worried about dilution, though.

Can a cold winter more than offset industrial demand drop ?
Just thinking out loud.

mern said...

told ya obama was go straight to da middle!

he has already done more gud than bush and he hasnt taken office yet.

so pissy i didnt take rutgers, that was a great pic.

i dont know leo. werent the giants in about the same position as the birds last yr.

coughlin was out, they were dying, until......... well u know.

but i just dont see fat andy and fat donny (who made it clear yesterday, he knows he aint coming back. he aint gonna take a big hit, outside of the pocket, until he lands in chicago. he knows cheap jeff lurie is on the hook for fat andy for 10 mil guaranteed. but donnys 10 mil is not)

imo, they can run the table get in as a wild card and then blow it.

just enough to keep fat andy in philly and enuff to usher in the kolb era that will last about 8 weeks.

reid is the problem.

shockingly they ran the ball and won, imagine that andy!

id much rather have steve spagnolu as our head coach!

serioulsy though, the gmen basically got shut out yesterday. u guys missed Plax, straight up!

redskins sux

To is not happy(dallas is toast, that locker room imploded yesterday), and the other team we play is the browns, but we tied cincy, so u never know.

Spin-em said...

to recap

they look pretty good.....but not that good....the could do what the giants did last year.....but they prolly wont.....donny looks good...bud hes not playin full tilt poker cuz hes not getting paid

go the fuck back to bed with that two way jibberish.....
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.looooooooooooooooooooool kiddin merny

mern said...

hey spinny.

after yesterday, can u tell me how donnys azzzzzzzzzzzz tastes!

;-)

pierce said westys tasted a bit dry....................

maybe plax and oj can be cell mates.

HO HO HO

Spin-em said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Spin-em said...

lmaooooooooooooooo..I just couldnt keep that there

mern said...

i dont know what the deal is with those NFL players. just taking my very very very sloppy seconds, thirds and fourths.

im going back and fourth between 20 something and 40 somethings.


im dating a 40 yr old dead head, marathon running, big brained freak right now. she dumped her last boyfriend becuase he wudnt sign a pre nup.

my kind of chick. she has money! loves the dead and is smart, but totally crazy. and she is pretty damn hot.

i miss cindy like a 3 day old dingleberry.

the only thing that really upset me was wasting 9 yrs and she somehow got on my deed.

other than that, i dont even think about her.

i just feel sorry for whoever knocks her up, and has a kid with her. he will find out in a few years she wants to marry her brother. and so does the mother in law. that is only lunny family. there is a circle of trust, but only happy thought allowed. if the reality is not gud, all is ignored. not my type of peeps. i suppose thats y i never got past calling them mister and mrs cook.

gman offense 211 total yards no points until 1 minute left in game.

westy, 203 all by himself and 2 td's. probably player of the week, again.

this is a no lose situation for me.

eagles lose, andy is gone!

they run the table, get into playoffs, well we know they can beat anyone on any given sunday, becuase they did just that.

if philly gets 2 parades in a yr, NYC mite implode!

mern said...

come on spin. i have a very gud sense of humor!

the owner at beefs yesterday told me to chill out, only to be hazed by about 5 giant fans.

"hey jeff, believe it or not, we come to this bar to listen to this freak. let him talk all he wants, he is hilarious."

then it got really funny in there. they love my fat andy comments. for a family restaurant, beefs got rather raw yesterday. the owner gave up and just let us be loud and obnoxious. it was gud stuff!

Frosty said...

munis must be rocking today...Mrs B held he fire, tax loss sales...krypto milk-bone worthy on the sell button?

Spin-em said...

LOOOL...yeah..I know ya do....you guys won fair and square and you deserve the right to bust my chops...

Bud said...

the GeeeeMen are easily the best team in football...........they can withstand plax loss cuz they are so much better than everyone else in nfc.....they better not lose brandon jacobs though


eli manning......next stop.....canton, ohio

Spin-em said...

after that blocked field goal for the TD halftime at the bar must have been a riot

mfl59 said...

Your buddy John Thain wants a $10mm bonus Bunkerman.....what say you?

Bud said...

" barkeep .......6 more heinekens....... here we go giants ..HERE WE GO !!!!!! "

Bunkerman said...

Re Thain, I say give him zero.

Bunkerman said...

any schmoe could have sold to BAC.

And they got stock, not cash, so the valuation is way down.

He had almost a year to clean that firm and failed, imho.

Bud said...

anyone have a line on rutgers/n carolina st ?? does it even matter ?? i'd like to lock some in right away

Frosty said...

thain should take a bonus...he will need the best lawyers...meat in a vick juice sammmyyyy indeed.

mern said...

if john thain is reading this...........

can i buy some pot from u?

bud how u feelin watching your brother go right to the middle?

if your ticket wud have won.............. no economic stimulus. we wud just have to pray harder, and kill more people.

what is the next issue rush limbaugh will spin u on?

donny is that gud of a QB?

andy reid is just big boned?

sarah palin has an iq over 37?

john thain deserves 10 mil?

bush was a gud president?

i miss cindy?

;-)

Bunkerman said...

I suppose I would be considered paranoid if I thought the beefers were orchestraing a year-end rally to try to hold onto some money ?

What would the lose by trying ? Why not risk the money that one has received a redemption notice on ?

It's heads, beefer mngt wins, tails, invesotrs just lose more.

Hmmm

?

Well, the auto deal is a real posiitve, though, as it cures a huge downside risk.

Bunkerman said...

How do you like that Word of the Day, frosty ? Are you surprised at the meaning ?

Hmm other unrelated meanings of the root,"frag" or "to frag" are interesting in slang.

Bud said...

what are you talkin about Bman ??? if the market goes up......the beefers clients also make money.......what do you mean 'heads i win tails you lose'


pffffffffffffffffffffft

Bunkerman said...

Jeez Bud ... on a big rally, investors might leave the money in the fund, so managers have a chance to stay in business.

If the rally collapses, the investors lose more, fund closes anyway.

I suppose you don't play chess.

mern said...

pretty much been on fire since the summer of 2000 except for the rally in 2003. is anyone better than toddo at gaming the macro? no offense bman.

A (slightly) more upbeat view comes from Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com and a frequent guest on Tech Ticker. Since declaring his investment portfolio to be 100% in cash this summer, Harrison has slowly been warming up to stocks as a long-term investment.

What's happened in the past year is "like a forest fire — scary [and] dangerous," he says. "But once this process burns through there's going to be a fertile rebirth and greener pastures."

While 2008 heard the "death knell" for the "buy & hold" strategy, Harrison believes there are "great opportunities for a counter-trend trade" in the most beaten down sectors, specifically retail and energy. He also recommends gold as a hedge against potential weakness in the dollar.

But Harrison is no raging bull, offering the following caveats. "We're are going to enter a golden age of globalization led by China and India but not without debt destruction [and] we have to be very careful of isolationism," he says.

Spin-em said...

...and nukes..dont forget the nukes Todddddddddddddddd(Lupner)

Frosty said...

Bunky yes i did enjoy the word of the day...Mrs B is the best.