Thursday, December 4, 2008

What will The Ostrich Do ?

Today is all about the ECB.

Will The Ostrich [aka Trichet, the head of the ECB ] pick his head out of the sand and see to cut rates significantly. "Significantly" means 0.75% to 2.5% and even to signal a move to 2.0% and then lower. Last time the ECB was stingy and the markets fell worldwide. Why they see a need for tight money at a time that inflation, which never was more than a speculative oil bubble, is non-existent, is beyond comprehension ?

Bank of England needs to cuts rates, too. Sweden's central bank already cut rates by 1.75% to 2%, more than expected this morning.

So far, European stock markets are strong this mornings. That can change instantly if the ECB disappoints.

Actions

I am still working on my list of stocks to buy that might go up 5 or 10x within two years if the world survives and returns to normal in two years. I'll put some Alpha Fund money into those soon, perhaps starting in early January.

Word of the Day

"Gogue" - noun [$ ? ] not in OED or any dictionary I've seen; a Mencken word.
Gogue means (from Wiki, so beware) a piece of horse tack used for training.
Sentence: (Mencken usage referring to college students) "... and eager to dance, neck and hoodwink the poor gogues told off to struggle with them."
(Modern) Has Trichet spent enough time in the gogue to get out and really run a bit ? Or will he stay in the barn, eat and sleep in complacent comfort?

66 comments:

Bunkerman said...

Isn't there something oxymoronic about "Big East" ?

It's sort of like, "tall pygmy"

;)

Bud said...

what time is Rutgers kickoff ??

Bud said...

i'll have to agree with you on inflation Bman.......it was simply a specualtive oil bubble.......i was wrong

inflation a war from the 70s the business media likes to hype

Bud said...

what about some coal stocks Bman ??


they all under 20 and some under 10

PCX JRCC

Bud said...

shawshank redemption was on hbo last nite.....what a flic


'Brroks (bud) an institutional man now.....he can't make it on the outside'

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman what is your opinion on the price of oil sir?

maverick said...

ACC - Big Ten Challenge
pfffffffffffffffffffft!!!!

Bunkerman said...

yes, coals are interesting unless Obama guts them with global warming claptrap.

Bunkerman said...

My opinion, oil goes back to $100 when world economy recovers. At that price it had caused behavior to change and ration supplies.

mfl59 said...

When, in your opinion, does the world economy recover? apporximately of course...

maverick said...

I think coldest November ever in NC. Global warming indeed Mr Gore. Line up for your award sir.

Bud said...

there was a funny sign last nite at the maryland/michigan game


" ACC 9-0 what challenge ? "

mfl59 said...

FCX CEO on cnbc now...lets see what our boy has to say....

Bunkerman said...

recovery begin next Spring.
Strong rebound at first - 2nd half 2009. Back to normal growth in 2010.

That is, IFF Obama does what I say, namely a two year, $1 trillion stimulus, and no acceleration of Bush tax expirations.

If a bit less, a bit slower recovery.

mfl59 said...

he sounds like Spider Rico after sparring 5 rounds with the champ....

Bunkerman said...

I liked that they paid down all that debt last year - corporate finance according to Bman.

No debt maturities until 2014.

Very good.

Will buy more lower.

Spin-em said...

since he's been right about bank book values and a buncha other shit in a bear market...Id sure like to hear Frosty'd opinion

mfl59 said...

I didn't want to be an innovator any more, i just wanted to make the quick and easy buck, i just wanted in. The Notorious BIG said it best: "Either you're slingin' crack-rock, or you've got a wicked jump-shot." Nobody wants to work for it anymore. There's no honor in taking that after school job at Mickey Dee's, honor's in the dollar, kid. So I went the white boy way of slinging crack-rock: I became a stock broker.

mfl59 said...

Phil Labeau another cnbc commentator who deserves a few smacks....

Spin-em said...

hes tryin to save his job too...comin after Phil Labeau from all sides...like Iraqi's with full knapsacks

mfl59 said...

journalist....pfftttt...he's as obvious as can be...."fair and emotionless reporting"...be impartial sir...its your job

Spin-em said...

Rutgers prof Tom Cafferty with a tear in his eye...snfff...just beautiful ...but this is the real world....everybody has an agenda sir....

mfl59 said...

I'm so fired up for tonight's game I feel like running through the brick wall outside of my window....

A win and off to the Papajohns.com Bowl....How can that not amp a man up?

mfl59 said...

I'd buy Santelli as many beers as he could drink....a man's man...

maverick said...

National Championship rematch in the Gator Bowl

Tigers and Huskers

Bud said...

papajohns bowl ?? what a joke


the scarlett knights are a hot team.......wake up bcs



PS......mike teel get a heisman invite ?? no?????? pffffffffffft

Spin-em said...

Phil Labeau with 2 hard hitting Maury Povich questions....attaboy Phil

Frosty said...

Bunky...is the beefer gutting done for the year...sure not real buyers, but this week has a different feel...free pass for the bulls indeed.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman does a RIG at $50 interest you sir?

Bunkerman said...

Normally, yes, but let RIG finish the move to Switzerland so the US index owners are out, then let's see where it is.

Bunkerman said...

I think there could be some left, frosty, as I wonder whether all the funds actually sold for the redemptions they have to pay at year end.

Some may be hoping for a reversal.

I want to see what happens to the autos before commiting more $.

mfl59 said...

See you guys later....taking the next flight to DC....I'll be meeting Labeau in the Octagon at 1 pm....tune in...

Spin-em said...

loooooooooooooooool

Frosty said...

Dow 7350 Was the Low
9:55 AM EST
A bottom-up analysis of the components suggests we won't hit that mark again in this cycle.

Bunky all your heros say the bottom is in...cramer..vinny farrel, kudlow's mustard seed indicator.

Mrs B when did he become such a perma bear...esae up on the spam and velveeta please and add a lil fiber to the diet.

Bunkerman said...

I'm not a determinist - the future depends on actions of people & government. The current mess began when the fools on Congress at first voted down Paulson plan.

Have money ready to go in when I seen Congress do the right thing.

Bunkerman said...

re Congress, I'll settle for a big debtor in possesion financing.

Frosty said...

Three scientists american, japanese, and pakistani are discussing their nation's scientific capability, and the american says, "In our country there was this boy who lost his legs in an accident, and we put artificial ones, and today u know hes an olympic gold medalist!" so the japnese laughs and says, "This is nothing.in our nation there was this boy who lost his hands and legs in accident and we put artifical ones, and today u know, hes karate champion!" so the paki laughs and says, "These are nothing, in our nation there was this boy who had no brains, and so we put a coconut in his head, and today u know......hes the, president of pakistan!"

Bunkerman said...

lol frosty.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman what would the likes of Hamilton, Franklin, and Jefferson suggest in regards to this autom industry mess?

mfl59 said...

after I choke out Labeau Id like a shot at Waggoner...man is this guy a prick....

lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Spin-em said...

now youre writin checks your azz cant cash.........lmaoooooooooooo

Bunkerman said...

lol, that's hard to say. Hamilton would probably be in favor. Maybe Jefferson, but he didn't like factories - he wanted all to be farmers. Franklin - I don't know, but he was very practical.

But I think the correct question is what would George Washington have done ? [I have read several fine biographies of him] He had a lot of business activities and I think he would say yes with conditions. He was rather activist in using governement to develop the nation, within limits and with zero corruption toleration.

Frosty said...

"The current mess began when the fools on Congress at first voted down Paulson plan."

oh Bunky you know that's just, wrong, to be kind...we should have been out front with aggressive rates cuts in the summer of 07 with an SEC flanking maneuver
to cut the head off the beefers jamming the commodity bubble. To allow GS open feild to attempt trading their way out of the mortgage mess ruined the market.

Spin-em said...

If I wanted a good look at a T bone.....wait.....the butcher....

mfl59 said...

RIG hits 50....come on Bunkerman...lets do this...

Bunkerman said...

I was serious about that adjective,"current" frosty - right after that is when the plunge to the black hole really got bad.

Before that, it was a mess but not nearly soo bad.

Everything held up after the LEH BK for awhile, waiting for Congree to act. When they did not, the panic button was hit nationwide adn that great sucking sound to oblivion began - to the black hole.

That's how I saw it at the time.

Bunkerman said...

Looks like around Dec 8 is the date that might be pulled from indices.

Is your trading eye saying, start buying ?

If so, I will start.

Frosty said...

the first Paulson plan was a 3 page memo...my weekly priker trading plan has greater depth and breadth...and as you know, I'm a friken idiot.

"calm down frosty"...I hear ya Mrs B, but....MLF59 has been hogging the MVP, I need to close strong this week.

Bud said...

what time Rutgers kickoff ??



PS......goin to Dicks after close for a ray rice jersey

Bunkerman said...

can't buy it yet, MFL ... wash sale date is later Dec.

That saves me some money Jan 15.

Bunkerman said...

the final plan was no different - give $ to Hank the Tank to spend as he pleased.

Frosty said...

sorry Mrs B...the plan, buy toxic assets, not pass racks of chips to the stuck pigs and deal the cards one more time...Hank, I can get even bro, just on more rack of black, up the vig, no worries.

Bunkerman said...

hmm ... some "outperformance"

Citadel investment decline this year 47%; Citadel Investment Group lost about 13% in November - WSJ

Bunkerman said...

if that plan has passed on time, the panic would not have occurred.

mfl59 said...

"thanks jim"

covering the short now

lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Spin-em said...

Greetings Sharksters,

Don’t forget to take advantage of Rev’s Holiday 20% off offer.

Bunkerman said...

just saw that spam, spin.

mfl59 said...

Oh Waggoner....you arrogant jerk...hubris rules your world sir...you pompous fool...well played sir at Oakland Hills last weekend...that was an awe inspiring 121....great shooting...

Spin-em said...

looooool......mfl get a Saab lemon or what???

mfl59 said...

lmaooooooooo....he acts like its everyone's fault but his...like he is smarter than everyone else...

Harvard MBA....pfffttt....

Bud said...

mfl you need to save your fury and anger for tonite...........make the 'house that ray rice built' shake

oh wait.......the scarlett knights are rollin...mike teel can't be stopeed..no help needed.....never mind



lay the 10

Spin-em said...

Rutgers offensive coordinator John McNulty Scranton boy......kick your feet up and relax...its in theeeee baaagggggggg mike




lmaooooooooooooooooooooo

mfl59 said...

Men I can already smell the brats smoking on the grill....Beautiful women dressed in red and black....flights to Birmingham being booked....

Bunkerman said...

quite a game of chicken going on in DC.

What a cluster fubar !

Obvious deal is autos get aid and Hank the Tank gets second tranche to buy home loans.

Spin-em said...

bring the poncho mike raining like a banchee

Spin-em said...

Does Louisville even have a football team??..Im just sayin.....lmaoooooo..congrats mike