Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Something Good

Not about the stock casino, oops, I mean stock market.

Normally I enjoy kicking Bill Gates in the butt and pointing out all the garbage Microsoft produces: that p. o. s. Vista operating system being the latest.

BUT I found a capability of the Microsoft word processing program, Word, that is quite remarkable - amazing even.

As I teach myself French, I've started to translate selections of writing. To do that without writing and making corrections by hand, I type the passage - sentence by sentence - into Word, then work on my translation below. Somehow Word has figured out that I am writing in French for some paragraphs and will do automatic spelling checking of the French. Word gets the endings and accent marks correct, too. Even a word that could be correct in English, but not French, is marked.

So here's one cheer for Bill Gates and Microsoft -> !

Market

Another good rally.

Actions

Like Santa Claus, I'm making my list and checking it twice. That is, a list of sectors and stocks that could make really huge gains IFF the world returns to normal in a couple of years.

Here's something interesting: I looked at my "Green Book" of 35 year stock charts to see which groups overperformed coming out of the 1974 bear market, which coincided with a very severe recession.

These groups had moves of about 300% to 400% from their lows in late 1974 to a peak in early 1976: apparel & luxury goods, shoes, home furnishings, hotels & resorts, leisure products, restaurants, and environmental services.

Those are certainly not in the group of "usual suspects". The common ground for all but one seems to be products or services for consumers that are easily deferred. Once the troubles are perceived as being over, the consumer comes roaring back to spend on those items.

That was long ago and not every group of today even existed then. For example, dry bulk shipping was a completely private industry then. And today is not exactly a match for 1974. But still, the sectors are interesting for stock investigations.

The next step is to check those sectors and similar ones to see what stocks might be good picks.

PS: WSJ had an interesting article about investment banking. What was missing are the contacts with "real" investors. To me, an investment banker could be calling on potential "real" investors - not trading funds - to find out their needs and what types of investments they would consider. They do have cash flow and needs to invest to match future liabilities with "good" investments. Then go find those for them. But I suppose many of the current generation doesn't have those skills.

Word of the Day

"Beshrew" - verb, transitive [$100] a Mrs. B word.
Beshrew means to curse, invoke evil upon.
Sentence: Bunkerman today deviates from his normal mode: To borrow from Marc Antony's speech in Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar, "He came not to beshrew Bill Gates, but to praise him".

27 comments:

Bud said...

you read the marc dreier story in the journal Bman ??


i wonder if the straitjacket of regulation wud have prevented that.....prolly not......hard to stop a criminal mind if you wanna go that far

Bunkerman said...

haven't read it yet ... will soon.

Bunkerman said...

can't prevent crime .. I read it and normal "due dilignce" can catch that stuff.

I remember having guys coming to me once in the 1980s try to peddle fraudulent paper. It was 'too good to be true" so we never even looked at it.

Later read about the scam in the papers.

Always gotta check stuff out well.

Bud said...

the new president and al gore meet today..........climate change on the agenda

i have actually come around to the Bman's view on that subject..........it's a complete fairy tale.....scam.......just a way for greenies to obstruct my liberties + scientists lookin for more funding

Bud said...

uhhhh.......that is still the Bman's opinion on global warming....correct???


or did he go to the other side ??

mern said...

Actress Fran Drescher has expressed interest in being appointed to the U.S. Senate seat that New York's Hillary Clinton is giving up to become secretary of state, a spokesman for the actress said.

No, seriously.



LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Bunkerman said...

A New Low:

Additional detail on earlier headline of the Illinois Governor being taken into federal custody

Chicago Tribune reports a source said that Gov. Rod Blagojevich was taken into federal custody at his North Side home this morning. The U.S. attorney's office would not confirm the information, and a spokesman for the governor did not immediately return a phone call for comment. A three-year federal corruption investigation of pay-to-play politics in Gov. Rod Blagojevich's administration has expanded to include his impending selection of a new U.S. senator to succeed President-elect Barack Obama

Bunkerman said...

No Change, Bud - your description is about right.

It's been shown to be factually wrong and full of errors in data, computation and logic.

Frosty said...

Bunky two banks I follow closely, both have seen another uptick in delinquint loans in november...for the first time both now boast mortgage loans one payment or more past due of 10%...apply their standard roll rates and reported delinquencies head well north of 8% and no, neither is adequetely reserved.

Bunkerman said...

no argument, frsoty - the panic of October and job losses since will certainly bring delinquencies to much higher level.

Not just home speculators and the dumb borrower/buyer getting hurt now.

Bunkerman said...

Only bank Mrs. B owns is HBC.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman what made you alter your bullish stance on the big money center banks?

Bunkerman said...

The October panic causing a lot more economic damage than before, and considering that huge layer of government preferred that must be repaid for the common gets anything.

I still like JPM, but figure that I have plenty of time to re-buy it as teh governmetn preferred lays over it like a wet blanket..

And the profit oportunity is not a great as in the other stocks I am considering.

Frosty said...

Jeez Bud ... on a big rally, investors might leave the money in the fund, so managers have a chance to stay in business.

If the rally collapses, the investors lose more, fund closes anyway.

I suppose you don't play chess.



MVP candidates this week playing against the above post from yesterday....still ROFLMAOOOO

Bud said...

you guys may wanna think about joinin the tank..........omg..........on fire this week !!!!


bitter and sore indeed

Bunkerman said...

To paraphrase an old quote, I think I'd rather have two teeth pulled than listen to / read "$%@" again.

mfl59 said...

tv's and raw land for all!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

flipped some recent add to DRYS;

I have no idea why its ripping unless lots of short covering.

Bunkerman said...

maybe that strock offering is being pulled or is done ?

Bunkerman said...

thnx for analysis frosty, helped me hold on down there at 3's and even buy more.

Frosty said...

team work Bunky...think we all faired very well...a couple of emails and a milk bone...we would have been ridiculed while paying $6k elsewhere.

Bunkerman said...

very true.

Frosty said...

Mrs B licking her chops today like Bunky staring at a plate of spam and eggs...MO PEP PG GIS being dropped to chase the SMH, say what...let us know when you pounce...Mrs B is the best.

Bunkerman said...

I guess Charles Schawb reads this blog - I see an op-ed in the WSJ online to restore the uptick rule.

Frosty said...

Bloomberg News has reported that three-month T-bills traded below zero percent today, trading at -0.01%. Federal Reserve data indicate that the last time three-month bills traded lower on a monthly average basis was in February 1941, when it traded at an average of 0.03%.

Bunky those pesky real buyers are at it again today...is that $vix making another higher low. Calls expensive compared to the spot price the past two days.

Bunkerman said...

real buyers must be patient, do it on dips, not rips.

mern said...

After the incident became public, he attempted to withdraw his plea, contending that his "wide stance" had been misinterpreted by the arresting officer and that he had pleaded guilty simply to get the matter over with.

In an effort to persuade the panel to throw out Craig's guilty plea, his attorney argued that Craig's foot tapping was protected by his First Amendment right to freedom of speech.

But the judges were unpersuaded.

man craig is the gift that just keeps on giving. this is so funny it has to be fattening!