Wednesday, January 24, 2007


This post is a little late, but I can't post all my previously developed thinking at once when starting a blog. I am extremely bullish on gold and silver. I look for gold to hit $1,000/oz at least and silver to hit $20/oz at least in the next couple years. I am not relying on some apocalyptic theory, but on physical supply and demand. For gold, supply from mines is dropping and central bank sales have slowed to manageable levels. Central bank sellers in Europe are being balanced by central bank buyers in the emerging markets. Physical demand in India and China is growing as their people gain wealth. For silver, the US government stockpile is gone and new industrial uses of silver are being found. Film was always recycled so its decline is partly balanced by less recycling supply. Printing digital photos uses silver, too.

I keep 5-10% of my investable net worth in gold and silver. My physical gold is mostly in American Eagles and my silver is mostly in bars. Right now, I am at 10%. I also own some gold stocks and play the swings in futures ("buy dips, sell rips" tactics).

By the way, in an apocalyptic event, this gold & silver might be a life-saver. I keep some pre-1964 silver coins in bags for small trading in an "end of civilization" scenario.

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