Thursday, January 25, 2007

Outlook for Stocks

The S&P 500 broke upward out of a five week bullish continuation pattern yesterday. The Nazz needs a couple of closes over 2,500 to similarly break upward. It's a bull market until something changes. The leg from mid-summer until mid December (or mid November for the Nazz) was a reversal of the May-June bearish correction that was based on fears the Fed would kill the bull. Since the June Fed meeting where a pause was signalled, consistent economic news has confirmed that inflation had topped, moderate growth was continuing, and the Fed did NOT kill the bull. The housing slowdown has not infected the rest of the economy.

This move might be the start of a new leg up - or a "second phase" (to borrow a rugby term) - as participants realize that earnings are OK and economic growth is on a sustainable track. As long as core inflation year-over-year does not tick up, fears of any new Fed rate hike should be held down. New core inflation year-over-year declines could bring on disinflation-induced PE multiple expansion. I think this will happen and we will have a 20% up year for the S&P. Time will tell.

For now, until something changes, the bull market is intact. I am holding long & strong on 150-200% margin, as I have been since mid-summer.


Spin-em said...

Hey Krypto!!!.....Hope all is well...great to see you still of luck!!

Bunkerman said...

Thanks spin. It took awhile for me to figure out what I wanted to do. Plus we recently lost another dog. That kidney disease can be held off a long time, but then they just fall off the cliff. It was very hard for all for weeks.

I'm still trying to get used to all the free time. I need to get over to my bard & work on some projects, instead of fall asleep in my chair in the afternoon.