Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Bears Growling Again

That "subprime" bone is getting quite well chewed, so they must be hungry. I suppose they want to scare the public some more and run some stops. They keep finding "new" items to try - the latest is rising credit cards delinquencies ... uh, what did they expect in a period of slower growth that began six months ago?

Richard Hoey on Babblevsion is talking about the need for a steeper yield curve to let the banks take on more paper - he's right. The Fed should quickly cut to 4 to 4.5% overnight rate with the discount rate equal to that rate, not higher. If that rate is a "sign of strength" as the Fed says, WHY is it higher? That's illogical. The Fed is really behind the curve - swinging at air.

Nothing new in yesterdays charts.

Uh ... since there are known to be billions in subprime loans out there, why is it a "surprise" when a bank or institution announces they have some? Where do people think those loans are? In the phantom zone?

Perhaps I've lived through so many real crises and panics, that I'm jaded. This one sure seems like a yawner to me.

So far it's still the "Rich Man's Panic of 2007"

PS: I did buy that iPhone yesterday. The sales demo was quite good - even a technological troglodyte like me might be able to use it. So this morning I'll activate it. More later.

PPS: Anyone who bought little, illiquid "slices & dices" of a MBS - whether residential or commercial - or of a CDO - and expected to be able to sell it before maturity is & was ... a fool.

P^3S: All this anguish about "subprime" and we haven't even had a moderate bank failure or other bankruptcy. One or two crummy mortgage "bankers". Sheesh. Whiners.

P^4S: The market is down a good bit, much after the Fed minutes came out showing the FOMC is a bunch of out-of-touch ivory tower dopes. Everyone was kissing their butts about that "genious" move. Not me. And now we see it proven to be a failure. The Fed is a very dangerous institution and really needs some adult supervision.

56 comments:

Bud said...

What's your favorite bunny berigan tune?

lmaooooooooo

Bud said...

BCS apparently either lied about subprime exposure......or not able to figure it out ( incompetency). Doesn't matter. Bad news for BCS shareholders.

Spin-em said...

Bunny Berigan....You'll Get By (With a Twinkle in Your Eye), 1931

Bud said...

Bman..the guys that are 'panicing' are the ones that are illiquid....insolvent. I'd be panicing too if i was goin broke. You are liquid.....hence you're not panicing. Has nuthin to do with how many crisis you've seen.

PS.....what is the plural for crisis? crisis's?

Spin-em said...

Here a Bunny for todays markets....Shanghai Shuffle

Bud said...

lmaooo spin

PS....you know frosty a huge bunny berigan fan...he'll never admit it though

Bunkerman said...

haha the "Pied PIper" CD of Bunny Berigan's hits from 1934 to 1940 is outstanding.

Bud said...

BSC and LEH downgrades. No surprise there.

Bunkerman said...

crises

Bunkerman said...

haha "you say BCS, I say BSC, let's call it a panic" hehehe that reminds me of the Fred Astarie - Ginger Rogers tune. Another great one!

Bud said...

Bman is financial times on your 'banned list'?

Bud said...

Bman who is gonna be the jp morgan of the panic of 2007?

Bunkerman said...

I like FT. I subscribed online awhile, but the site sucked. That was last year. Maybe it's better.

The Economist is a good magazine, by the way. I don't read it now, but I used too.

I just have enough to read already.

Bunkerman said...

I don't know, re the J. P. Morgan of 2007. We'll see.

Ben is flopping, so far.

Bunkerman said...

Aren't these bear raids on the big fins getting a bit stupid? Some headline comes out and the beefers hit them unchecked by any uptick rule. Maybe that didn't matter since the idiots at the SEC let them sell short ETFs with no uptick rule, either.

Well, they are tempting me, but I'm waiting for them to put their heads in the bear trap.

Frosty said...

$ndx gap down this morning, now we have two on the recent tape...why not just give spin-em a treasure map to mine gold from this market...it shouldn't be that siimple, it's just not fair...we need some regulation that stops these gaps from occuring to protect the common man or spinbeefer will crush them.

Bunkerman said...

bought some more big cap fins: BAC, C, JPM, WB

I'm about 50% of planned position in them now

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...only took them 16 minutes to get their heads in the trade from post to post? wake me up when BAC is 45 :)

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm Frosty - that might take a split from 90 in a couple years hehehe ;-)

Frosty said...

Bud, where is the list...this darkside double juice index crap is boring.

Bud said...

lmaoooooooo frosty

only a matter of time before Bman starts complainin about these gaps....they hurt the common man

Frosty said...

taking some darkside sugar...just staying ahead...no sense giving any back ahead of vacation...vurtual indeed.

Bud said...

Feels like beefers runnin some retail stops. Bman where are the real buyers bids?

Bunkerman said...

Real buyers are patient. Let the shorts stick their heads in the noose. Maybe on a test fo the downtrend lines that were broken a few days ago. Perhaps 1440 S&P cash.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...you act like bears are a bunch or morons who never make money...smart bulls just wait and crush them...oh brother.

Bud said...

Come on frosty.........don't ruin it for me. I luv when Bman talks about the smart real buyers and the stupid moronic bears. Cracks me up. Lemme have my fun.

Spin-em said...

Where's Peter Schiff when ya need him on bubble tv?....lol

Bunkerman said...

uh ... haha ... you bears act like the bulls are idiots who buy high & sell low and chase mo. Why do you even look for real buyers when stocks gap up or have run up.

So they pull bids on these raids and wait.

Frosty said...

SKF comes right back to fill that panic seller gap...real buyers come through again...atta boy spinny.

Bunkerman said...

lolol frosty SKF. Uh, there's a gap now around 82 ;-)))

Bud said...

Roflmao......'you bears'

Bman i'm not a bear..... nor am i a bull. I'm pure mo. Virtual. Fake. Phony. Opposite of real.

Frosty said...

LMAOOOOOO 82 skf...got me...trapped by the smart bull.

Bunkerman said...

lolol Bud. So you're a ghost, but you don't wear a sheet on Halloween ;-))))))

Frosty said...

CFC...buying some right here Bunkerman...taking the BAC put...what about that chart, and it's fits with your thesis.

maverick said...

B'man ...no need to rush into that BAC trade... next month will deliver that magic entry 45

Frosty said...

the old double gapper about to become a single over head...these virtual players make me sick...I'm certain they are mainly liberals.

Bunkerman said...

interesting thinking on CFC frosty. I guess I'll own it when BAC buys them.

If 45 gets hit in September, that's OK. I've got the last 1/2 of my position to build. I've been rather patient - waited a whole month to add even a bit.

Frosty said...

CFC...don't get me wrong...I plan to play some ping pong...best case it builds a base 19-25, any failure to do that and gonzo....like that Bud gonzo.

Bud said...

I'm playin this course at noon on friday. $120 greens fees. 28 bux...lmaoooooooooooooo

Bud said...

oops ...this is the course

http://www.stonewallgolfclub.com/golf.asp

Frosty said...

stonewall...an obvious republican play ground...as obvious as their lack of standards and willingness to suck cash from the common man, while they provide an illusion of power and status.

Spin-em said...

$28....lmaoooooooooo

Bud said...

True.........stonewall a confederate general. But the course pretty sweet.

lmaoooo 'illusion'

Spin-em said...

COP rises up to the fittee day to form the prrrfect H @ S and waves buubye??

Frosty said...

Bud, your dog eat the list....how about those nfl picks...you need to start working a little harder...we are still a couple of years away from becoming a true welfare state.

Bunkerman said...

uh spin, that looks like a conehead H&S ;-)

Spin-em said...

lolol..Bunk..Well open up a six pack Beldar and short it....lol

Bunkerman said...

FOMC minutes were pathetic - shows a Fed on vacation in Nantucket on their government paychecks.

Bud said...

Really? I don't see any mention of nantucket in the minutes. Rofl....government paychecks. Are you suggesting federal employees not get paid?

Frosty said...

Ben certainly no johhny wadd.

Frosty said...

curbs...what a load of crap...let the tape get where it needs to go...this goverment intervention stuff is killing the free economy, but is saving the common man.

Bud said...

lmaoo frsoty


Does this feel like beefer scare tactics frosty? Are they tryin to 'create panic'?

Bunkerman said...

So much for that "brilliant" Fed move everyone was buttkissing about.

Sheesh.

Fed is a bunch of dopes, as usual.

A very dangerous bunch of ivory tower fools. Fire them all.

Frosty said...

MER called the GS bluff today...now GS must eat it own by gutting beefers to make their numbers Bud....get a clue.

Bud said...

roflmao gut their own beefer


How true frosty. What cannibals. Pirhanas. Barracudas. Sharks.

PS.....thank you MER analyst!!!!

Spin-em said...

mfl...MIA ..day 6