Stocks reversed strongly late Wednesday on high volume. That does NOT qualify as a follow-thru day being neither on or after Day 4 of the IBD rally count, nor was the advance large enough. Wednesday was Day 3. The S&P cash was up 10 pts. after the futures being down almost 16 pts. very early Wednesday AM. Volume was over Tuesday's high volume. So it does qualify as a prospective bottom.
We need a strong follow-thru day to scare the shorts ... hehe ... out of their shorts ;-)
Bloomberg is screeching bearishly as I write this, ignoring the reversal. Two Tudor hedge funds suffered big losses. Shucks.
One really has to expect a hard retest of the lows of early Wednesday. I'm being patient on my adds to my position in the big cap financials. Human psychology might lead to some kind of repeat panic in them in October.
I have an appointment early so will not check in until noon or so (EDT).
PS: Back. Stocks are up. Hmmm. A couple up days to scare the shorts, then a re-test to suck them in to sell stocks to real buyers ... that would set up a follow-thru day.
PPS: Hmmm. Fed saying they are watching subprime "very, very closely". With PCE yoy inflation under 2%, a cut is coming this fall. :-)))
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44 comments:
Lmaooo...'scare the shorts'. What will that do B'man? The market will only get back to highs when big funds decide to buy stocks relentlessly.
Bolling with an interesting pairs trade last nite. Buy GS and short C. To quote Borat....' ah like '.
Hedge funds sufferring losses. I don't understand why you find that so pleasurable B'man. Do you know who their investors are? Maybe they have pension fund money for the 'common man'. Or perhaps someone gave them their life savings of $3m dollars. Why do you have an orgasm everytime you hear of a hf getting pounded in the market? I think it's very bad karma. ( Kind of like rooting for someone to get sick.)
PS. It's a fact - people gonna lose money in the market - it's gonna happen. I just don't root for it or celebrate it. They do that in the jim cramer chat room too. I hope everyone that reads this post makes tons of money in the markets. Yes....even you Frosty......i know i disgust you......but i wish you well. I know it's not your fault......you prolly didn't get enuff hugs when you were little. Lmaooooo
Intersting article on front page nytmes today on friendship between Guiliani and Roger Ailes ( head of Fox news.) Fox news is the network of the KKK. It's watched by right wing racist bigot baby killers. Lol 'news'. They don't report any news.......only lies and propoganda. They also specialize in spreading fear and hatred.
PS. Rudy guiliani.....lmaooooo. Come on frosty.. is that the best you got? Hillary will demolish him.
I did speak briefly to mern yesterday. He called me between tps reports. I told mern ...'you were right!'. Needless to say he was a bit bummed about the market falling with him on the sidelines. We had a good laugh. But he is excited about his upcoming trip to Paris and Amsterdam. Especially amsterdam.
HPQ not bad frosty. What else you got? I neeed to make some money.
Damn!! Goona lose power here from 8-12. Power company sayin 'approximately 4 hours'. I could go work from my office or i could find some way to spend approximately 4 hours.
I admit to schadenfruede with respect to hedge funds. I think most are just bunko scams taking excess fees. And they distort the markets with all that ping-pong trading. If all those trillions in beefers were just invested in stocks of index funds, instead of ping-pong trader funds, the Dow would be at 20,000.
I see the mania for hedge funds as as "excess" in the marktets taht are holding stocks back and causing distortions. So I think some of mern's "creative destruction" needs to work on them. 75% need to be liquidated.
W on the job this morning Bud....I do agree that rummy should be bunred at the stake without proof, an old cracker that has served his nation for a life time...Vick, a gangster footballer should get the benefit of doubt...LMAOOOO...selective liberals disgust me...flip flop...liberal's tend to be selective whichs sounds very david duke like.
HPQ no longer super sized...under 47 gonzo...Bud where is that list?
DEEP...back to 15 from where it came public....can you consider that a double bottom?...earnings 8/8...short ratio jumped 564% in july, some of those new bears could jump ship ahead of earnings and may want to hang themselves after.
Too much money invested in hedge fund trading schemes is the same economic dislocation as too much money invested in chip factories or too many office buildings. Just a waste of resources that needs corrected.
Bunkerman...we are trading as though the employment number is going to matter...if mern were here instead of doing tps reports would he be banging the table that we get a good number? long end of the curve looks a little toppy so is there potential for at least a little out of bonds into stocks type of move?
put on three earnings plays in equal chip stack size for a little gamble...if anyone is playing today let me know and I will postem' so you can fade me.
post em frostman
ATVI CHTR ICGE
Bunkerman any interest in adding to you oil exposure at these levels? Or are you fully loaded there still? Seems like the usual "oil has topped" crowd is starting to get giddy....
Cracker served his nation? He is responsible ( alongwith W and scumbag cheney) for the wrongful deaths of 3000 plus GI's. Vick hasn't killed anyone. Selective liberals.........Lmaooooooooo
they must have turned Bud's power off...if anyone is passing the hat to help him get back in the game and pay his power bill, put me down for half a yard.
oooppppsssss...good afternoon to you as well Bud.
I'm loaded up on the oils. This pullback is similar to about three other pullbacks in the oils. When the beefers rotate out, they move down, but always to a higher level.
Oil might have temoporarily topped, but it's going higher eventually.
Sheesh. CVX at 10x earnings. What a screaming buy.
thanks bunkerman...sell rips buy dips....
Bud your handicap must be down to about 1 by now....sharksters worried that you abandoned them...
My oil & gas: XOM, CVX, COP, MRO, SU, DVN, CHK.
Deep-water drillers: GSF, DO, RIG, NE
Refiners: VLO
Other: HES, NOV
Frosty, I'd like a moderate employment number. The ADP number has been rather accurate lately - close enough. Anything between 50 and 150K is OK with me.
Lower end of the range would make my Fed cut idea stronger.
"Too much money invested in hedge funds".....Huh? Bunkerman you really crack me up. What is 'too much'? I am in favor of more participants in the stock market.....not less.
Frosty lookin for my list? Are you havin a hard time makin money you need my picks to fade? Ok. I start posting it again. But tomorrow I gomnna work on my handicap again. Lmaoooooo 'handicap down to 1' .
Who is worried that I abandoned them? The 20% that are pretty cool ? Surely not the other 80%.....they all Klan members.
I agree B'man. Moderate wage and inflation numbers increase the possibility of a rate cut. But if oil keeps surging....how can inflation not rise?
So B'man. Locked and loaded oils. And predicting a rate cut. Tough for both to happen.
Bud, you need work on your exegesis. I said there was too much money investred in trading hedge funds. Those really don't invest in the market at al,they just play ping-pong - the virtual and near virtual beefers.
Don't be an eisegete :-))))))
The Fed doesn't control the price of oil and they know it. With year over year core PCE under 2% and troubles in housing, they will soon be unable to justify an inflation bias. They'll cut 25 bps twice to "ratify" the markert level when they remove the inflation bias.
Sheesh, listen to those short interest levels. Bears are digging a deep hole that's gonna be their grave.
All those rich people should pull all out of beefers and start just buying diversified index strategies. They can learn to do it for free here or pay $25 for David Swensen's book.
After that, they should just play golf with other idle rich people like Bud.
Don't worry, be happy!
By the way re those oil & gas plays. My first LT buys were last June 2006. I got more in the Sept-Nov 2006 and a last bit in early March 2007.
It's actually tempting to buy more. I'll have to check the Alpha Fund allocations.
Sheesh VLO at 7x. Beefers playing ping-pong.
Rofl........diversified index funds. You beginning to sound like john bogle. So should i have done that as well? I know several very very successful traders who are way outperforming those funds. They are up huge this year. ( I am not rich .....frosty how much you collect in that hat?.....they gonna turn my power off again if i'm late).
I explained this once before B'man.........don't pay that much attention to short interest. The market will smash thru to new highs only ( and only) if large funds decide to buy stocks in size. Short covering is not what drives a market to record highs. Buying and holding by strong hands keeps markets strong. Short covering is like lighting a match in a forest fire.
Bud...Vick will give all the money you want...he gonna need only about $1.50 per week
Uh, Bud, I heard that "short interest doesn't matter" stuff last fall. It was wrong then and its wrong now.
When the beefers short too much, the real buyers are scooping it up. As real buyers make every dip higher the shorts covering gives us buying power over the highs.
The real buyers buy lower, the shorts cover higher, causing us to grind up. Last fall and this spring are examples. It's gonna happen again as long as my economic trajecotry continues ... hehehe ... as I have foreseen ... hehehe ;-))))
[parodying the Emperor]
It's obvious in the tape and charts Bud. The real buying is always on the dips. This long move since last summer has not had explosive moves up at new highs that last more than one day. If beefers were loading up, they'd buy at higher highs. The only buyers up there are short covering. So when that winds donw, the market pulls back and the then beefers re-short to sell stop at dips to the real buyers. And the cycle of grind up continues.
You need to take trading 201 and 202 in the graduate school. ;-)))
Efficient markets bah! roflmao!!!!
If you can beat 10%, then do it, Bud. But the rich don't have to work, so why risk the money?
David Swensen knows how hard it is to find good hedge funds. He's the best and has access to all. I think he know what's he's talking about.
Anyway, I invest my Alpha Fund $$$ myself partly to stay active. If I couldn't make 30% average, I'd just put it all in the indexed Krypto Fund.
[Alpha Fund is about +38% YTD after this pullback]
Maverick i'm sure those Vick jokes may seem funny in north carolina (or in the jim cramer chat room) .....but they are despicable and really disgust me. Your state has a long and proud history of slavery , castration and lynching. The 'new' south......Lmaooooooo
This fall, Bud, go to the state fair and visit the animal barns. There are many interesting different breeds of cattle. You need to understand the complexity of the stock market fauna. Maybe seeing all those cows will help you understand that all beefers aren't alike ;-))))))))))))
'Beefers short too much...real buyers scooping it up....beefers cover higher'........etc....too funny B'man. You really are hilarious. I needed a good laugh to end the day. Bye.
die GOP die !!!!
the jim cramer chat room....lmaooooooooooo
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