"Federal officials want urgent inspection of the nation's 700+ steel deck truss bridges following the Minneapolis bridge collapse"
Uh, I remember a bridge collapse in the 1960s over the the Ohio River leading to a "urgent inspections" - ref. Silver Bridge collapse in 1967.
So again the government needs a body count to actually do something to protect the public. Sheesh.
The "subprime" lending scandal is a repeat of the late 1980s commercial real estate lending scandals.
My impression is the world is re-living the 1970s in many aspects: commodity prices, terrorism, small wars, major regulatory efforts, weak and pusillanimous leaders, etc.
Stocks: the 200 DMA on the S&P seems to have provided solid support; the real buyers re-entered their bids. A hard re-test must be expected. Let's see what develops. Perhaps a "W" pattern will evolve, or another bullish continuation pattern. I'm waiting patiently.
PS: Babblevision just said some hedge funds are crowing about 15-20% YTD returns after July. Uh, the Alpha Fund is still up 35% YTD. I'm embarrassed it was +50% a few weeks ago :-(
PPS: Refreshing! P&G said it includes restructuring costs in normal ongoing operations - they don't break it out. They say restructuring is a ongoing practice. Great! I've been making a joke about corporation's breaking out those charges for years. The joke oxymoronic term, "recurring non-recurring items" fits that practice so well. Kudos P&G!!!
P^3S: Babblevision sure it pumping the panic in real estate lending. Golly, imagine requiring income verification! or a down payment! or paying bills on time! how onerous!
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
76 comments:
More rumors. Gold is up. Some talk about manipulation due to the elimination of the uptick rule - nahhhh. Beefers would neeevvveeerrr do that! Markets are efficient lololol! roflmao!!!
Dollars to zlotys that Bear Stearns gets taken over. BSC just got put on credit watch by a rating agency. It's a short now, but don't get caught.
They make most of their money in mortgage securitization and trading of those securities. And that earnings power is now suspect.
Re BSC, I remember Kidder Paebody got taken over by GE in the 1986 after a huge mortgage loss.
Bunkeman...BAC time vs price...think we may get a chance at ops expo 8-9 or 10-07 at 45...did you have a price in mind for a second buy?
ATVI still holding...CHTR and ICGE solid in ah...400 bps...not exactly printing bank.
I'm thinking 45 is possible October, frosty, unless the Fed cuts sooner. "Possible", not probable. This volume and that dividend might make this 47-48 are the bottom.
Oxpo on Oct 19 has an ominous sound.
I'm being flexible in my thinking. I'm unlikely to add before October unless there's blood on the Streets earlier.
What I am thinking is why am I buying C and JPM, albeit in 50% sizes compared to BAC. Why not put it all on BAC?
I could take a ST loss on those & buy more BAC. BAC seems like the quality operation.
BAC my fav...some say this is 90's like, perhaps, I stayed clear of C then, just wrong then at 8....I bought security pacific (VP risk at the time) who was then taken by BAC...JPM amd C have ops issues and managenet gaps, BAC runs like a clock...they are the best operator.
C and JPM have the most potential to improve....time frame...who knows?
anyone think that helicopter Ben cuts next week?
this market trades like everyone is on vacation? work the open and close...like spinny around the cement pond.
I think it's possible, not probable. They might take off the inflation bias and signal consideration of September cut depending on data.
can't catch the bond market like that Mav...unless we have a crisis that we sluts have no clue about.
If they are concerned, then they might cut since it does take time for Fed policy to have an effect. And they are 50 bps over neutral. A cut would help the ARMs get re-financed.
The Dems might presure them, too, since the subprime borrower - non-spec ones - are low income people. Fed is a political animal.
Bunkerman...no one has a total due based upon risk repricing...systemic risk must first be measured...I hope they keep the heat on and flush as much of this crap as possible as soon as possible.
Rofl 'manipulation'. Gimme a f'ng break! Market goes down and they start blaming the elimination of the uptick rule. Exactly how does one manipulate a stock by selling it on downticks? And if that is so, why don't they require a downtick to buy a stock ? If they can manipulate it down they surely can do the same up , can't they? No!...Just a bunch of nonsense and garbage. The market is efficient......buyers and sellers determine the price every second of every hour of every day.
Is LEH a death spiral?
Bud, back already? run out of clubs?
Who would buy BSC? A bank or a broker like GS or MS?
those that pushed the down tick the past two days got their sacks handed to them near the bell....cuts both ways. are those futures programs virtual or real Bud or perhaps they are efficient market machines...oh no, those darn fat finger trades...LMAOOOOOO
Let me understand you correctly B'man. Do you think the economy needs a rate cut.......or bulls want a rate cut so their stox go higher? Cuz you have been saying economy is in pretty good shape.
Exactly frosty. Very easy to get hurt big time if you believe B'man's silly theories. You don't really need a stupid rule to stop makin a stock go down. As I explained before.............stocks go down when large holders start dumping their position. Period. Lmaoooooooooooooo...'the shorts'
I'm a bit confused frosty. Are you buying BAC here? Or at 45? Or are you already long? Man it sure is a pain to figure out what you mean sometimes.
BAC is best of breed because it was founded by a hardscrabble Italian-American, not like the rest of these big stodgy banks which were started by members of the golden sperm club....
uh Bud...when Bunkerman made his first buy i asked what was the rush...rat at the middle of the snake...thought 45 would be very cheap...they then raised the dividend and perhaps saved it from 45 this week, where I may try to go long term in it and would add down to 40..no I don't own it yet, but I want to...a good trader would obviously wait for the pile on. liberals....ppfftt
Good memory mfl. BAC bought so many and changed names it is a bit confusing. So everyone thinks BAC is immune? BAC and WFC so far best of breed.
Mav BAC will take lumps, no one playing large in So Cal immune...but an 8 pe with 75 bips over the ten year would be hard for large funds to resist...given what we know now.
'BAC a quality operation' 'BAC my fav...runs lika a clock' 'BAC best of breed'
Bud you taking a break after your morning 18?
where are all those sellers? downgrades, bad employment data and no bear raid...I mean real sellers?
BAC is really National Bank of North Carolina. NCNB becaome NationsBank and then bought Bank of America and changed the name.
THe HQ is in Charlotte, NC
DEEP...takin some more right here for next week...earnings wed.
I think a rate cut to 4.75% would be inflation neutral and leave the economy on a glide path of 3% growth.
5.25% is higher than neutral now. With year over year core PCE at 1.9% there isi no reason to be higher than neutral.
I don't see it as a question of "need". The Fed's job is to maximize employment consistent with stable prices. 3% growth does that and might even let the lower income people make up some ground now that the illegals invasion from over the Rio Grande has slowed.
Uh, I think the poor should get a square deal, unlike many "Democrats". Unnaturally high rates are not needed now.
uh Bunerkman...are you educating me ie my So Cal comment? I worked for BAC.
I think a foreign bank, Bud. Not GS or MS.
Perhaps DB.
All this talk about "risk" is derivative mumbo-jumbop. Those derivative "risk" indexes are just garbage.
Risk gets down to a loan's details, period. Collateral, covenants, financials.
The MBS/CLO/CDO/CBO trust are going to have trouble because the foreign banks that bought lots of the big AAA classes will sit out a while now.
Well, well, well.....Laura bush in minneapolis today...the president tomorrow. Only took a couple days. Yet after Katrina the president had to be dragged kicking and screaming to Neworleans a week later. This bridge collapse a paper cut compared to the catastrophe hurricane Katrina was.
Kanye west was right.....george bush doesn't care about black people. In fact i'll go further - he hates them. He's a bigot. Everyone knows that. Makes me sick.
Oh Bud, I proved the market is not efficient the other day. Your ecceity as a profitable trader proves that. Sheesh.
BAC...yes it is Bman I can see the towers :) Usually have Klan meetings in the lobby.
Uh, guys, selling lots of S&P futures short is a bit diferent than hittting a moderately illiquid stocks hard on every downtick.
Now the beefers can just hit a stock & run the public's stops, like in the hog pit.
Poor policy long term.
I think the key word there is, "worked", frosty, the "-ed" part. I remember the takeover and my niece works for BAC - was at the HQ in Charlote last year.
no frosty, I was commenting on mfl's Italian American comment - that was the old BAC before the takeover- it was started by an Italian American ij SF , I forget his name.
Hmmm what would Bud think about a North Carolina origin bank now called Bank of America?
[Bud - that one is a slow pitch dwon the middle ;-)))]
roflmao mav!!!
does kanye west care about white people?
Bunkerman...can you post some BAC inside information that we can trade off...i won't tell anyone.
re So Cal, yes, I suppose they have some problem loans there. Or lost business.
That's why I'm waiting ahile for the problems to come out. Next earnigns is ... about 10/19. They have to disclose then. Will get many Qs. So after that we should know.
lol Frosty.
Sgt. Shultz: "I know Nothing! Nothing!"
lmaooo....mfl
Our old friend the shiny yellow metal is starting to sniff out a rate cut by Mr. Bernanke it seems...a convincing break of $700 should launch gold towards it all time highs....
this is just about where the nasty futures fuse hit the c-4 yesterday...same pattern same result?
Bear Stearns CFO comments remind anyone of Baker's comments the weekend before Black Monday? Of course, I was in middle school at that time, but I did read about it....lol....just saying....seems pretty dark out there...
MLF...spoken like a true gold bug...lol
I don't remember Baker's comments as being significant in any way. I was heavily participating in 1987. Five coincident events precipitated the crash: very overpriced stocks, Congress hitting buyouts, Reagan shelled an oil platform in the Gulf, the dollar cratered, and the Fed was raising rates.
These volatile days are just beefer ping-pong now. Nothing new is coming out.
Sheesh, Cramer is going nuts!
cramer melting down on the fed...MLF going to pull a hunt brothers like move on the market?
lmaoooo funny stuff....bunkerman get the gold and silver coins...secure the bunker....its armageddon!!!
ROFL Frosty...Hunt bros...you know mfl dialed into the metals
gesh...the way cramer was screaming I had my finger on the sell all button....thought he was calling the repeat of the 87' crash...lol...no that is not until Monday...many malted beverages between now and then. relax and buy tech...lol
I wonder if Cramer could scare the public to hit sell all over the weekend?
well if cramer wants to stay in the employ of GE he better bring down the volume a little....Ben knows what is going on and with smooth the feathers next week....certainly cramer will take credit.
true, I wouldn't be surprised if someone in the NY fed was callig the banks telling them to make mortgages or else.
Ditto FNMA and Freddie Mac.
Bud you have that darkside list ready yet?
I wonder who dreamed up "Alt-A"? What is so "A" about it? A credit score? Sheesh.
Bunkerman...I was thinking it was the same guy that dreamed up trading curbs..hehe
'relax and buy tech'..........lmaooooooooooo
Frosty this is just a nasty hideous market for bulls .............godamnit....bring back the uptick rule.....rofl
lol frosty, I was thinking the same guy dreamed up credit derivatives. Maybe he's the same guy that dreamed up "portfolio insurance" in the mid 1980s.
too many hedge funds, derivatives, trading funds, etc. Not enough real investors.
this will scare the geniuses in DC.
Uh oh.
We need to stricter trading curbs to prevent 'beefer manipulation'.........lmaoooooo
Really B'man ? So i guess you don't want someone like me particpating in the equity markets. That sure sounds like discrimination to me.
BSC fixed income is almost all mortgage securities. They are no factor in corporate debt.
XLF 500 mil shares this week...that is something else...looks like a little more than beefers running retail stops.
This market needs Hillary now. Help is on the way!!
W is a disgrace.
Cheney is scum.
GOP look finished.
Dems are surging.
The trend is your friend.
Bye.
PS. Get some rest frosty.....we gonna be very very busy next week.
Oh Bud, you're a human being. Do whatever you please along with other human beings.
I don't like the big funds that churn the markets for fees and trading profits. I don't like how the regulators are letting them feed on everything. I don't like the unregulated derivatives markets.
I guess I was right about the big hedge funds getting into lending. I said a couple years ago that if they want to play "bank" they should be regulated like banks. So they become buyers for this subprime crap and alt-A crap loans and create a lending bubble. And then poor Americans get sucked in and then foreclosed.
I was right two years ago. If it's lending money to the public, regulated its activities and capital.
Too bad we have an idiot in the White House.
cnbc has the stop trading vidio up and it is just a hoot!! the fed is going to crush the non-bank banks and some folks at GS are going to get cut....big deal....not if you like greater regulation...Brunkerman, doing a jig?
Post a Comment