Tuesday, August 14, 2007

More of the Same

WSJ:
Hedge funds dodge taxes on loans using foreign sister funds.
Removal of uptick rule increases volatility.
Small investors get nailed making arcane trades.
Options trading by small investors was up 46% yoy in July at OptionsXpress
Margin interest was up 20% at same firm.

Is anything new under the sun?
Does anyone ever pay in cash anymore? [except me}
Does anyone ever just buy a stock to hold awhile any more? [except me]

Jesse Livermore: "The big money is made in holding stocks for the big move" [paraphrased]

WMT misses EPS big, says low income people under pressure.

Hello Ben! Are you listening? Or on vacation in Nantucket with the other ivy leaguers?

PS: Bring back the uptick rule! Apply it to ETFs! Keep stock investing ... as stock investing. Get rid of this creep to commodity style trading in stocks. Yes, I an a proud anachronist. The old ways were better.

PPS: Bought some S&P Sept. eminis for a TRADE on a potential W bottom. If the pattern breaks, I'm gone. Otherwise will hold awhile. In around 1439 for Sept contract.

P^3S: I took the small loss near the cash close. I don't like the cash close under 1430. The W pattern is now suspect since the cash close was under the first leg close.

81 comments:

Bud said...

Why shud small investors get preferential treatment over others. The stock market is the only business where rules are often made for them. In every other business the larger customer ( one who spends more) gets gets the better suite, better table, better interest rate, better parking spot, etc.......

Bud said...

Arcane trades? What does that mean?

Bud said...

B'man if you are in the minority with 'buy and hold'...you shud be ecstatic. If everyone adopts the same strategy.....you'll never make a dime.

Bud said...

Cutting rates is gonna help low income people. Isn't that what got us into a mess in the first place. All I hear and read last few weeks is how mr G kept cutting rates wrecklessly.

Bud said...

Michael metz on bloomberg saying a recession coming by Q1 2008 to US. Heard that from a few others too. B'man what are the chances of a recsession in your opinion?

Bud said...

What's wrong with vacationing in Nantucket? Huh? Ben is an employee with a job..if he has vaction time he can spend it wherever he wants to with his money. Something wrong with spending time with ivy leaguers? Do they have less ( or more ) morals than anyone else? Huh?..Sheesh.

Bunkerman said...

arcane: known or understood by only a few; esoteric.

The example was a short strangle on wheat!

Sheesh, the guy in the story only has a million in the account was was doing that stuff. What a fool!

Bunkerman said...

lol, you listen to mern too much, re Mr. G. I never complained about him cutting.

Bunkerman said...

Recession risk is very small unless the fed hikes, imho. By recession, I mean GDP growth actually going down two quarters consecutively - that's the traditional definition.

Sustained slow growth is very possible: 2% GDP growth is slow.

Bunkerman said...

Oh Bud, it's a clique of the rich and powerful and elitists who go to the "islands" - I'm being sardonic.

That's part of the problem - these so-called leaders acting like a ruling class and separating themselves from the people.

So when they make decisions, their inputs are ... other rich & powerful ... other elitists.

Bunkerman said...

You might be right about my donig OK being contrarian about holding strong stocks/groups & doing OK. That's my thinking. Instead of trading a lot and missing parts of moves & paying extras taxes, I figure that by thinking more and buying big positions in strong group & good stocks will get me big gains over 1-year timescales.

Tiem will tell. It's worked for the past year, but one year does not prove a tactic.

It's consistent with semi-retirement, at least.

mfl59 said...

I think Greenspan is a fool myself, as Ive stated in the past...He left Big Ben with this mess....besides cutting rates recklessly, any moron who tells middle class working people to take out ARM's when rates are at 2%, and tells them they'll be fine since housing mostly likely appreciates 10% yoy, is a complete fool...which is why he held government jobs his whole career....that was my ode to mern...

maverick said...

lol mfl...I still have a hard time understanding why Greenie made those comments about taking an ajustable. Die DB Die

Bunkerman said...

I agree re the Elmer comments on taking out ARMs - utterly irresponsible and very harmful. He was being a "friend of the banks" since banks like ARMs by pumping them.

I think the cuts were OK. But I think now he should have raised in 50 bps bumps instead of 25 bps bumps to get to neutral (4.5-5%) faster. The slow rises were wrong.

Bunkerman said...

core PPI OK. CPI tomorrow is much more important.

Bunkerman said...

Phooey! Why do they talk to a trader (!) about correctness of Fed policy? What the heck do traders know, except what's in front of their nose?

maverick said...

lol Bman...the trader paying the "real" price. Those numbers from BLS are manipulated anyway.

Bud said...

Will the yankees ever lose again? I hate them.

Bud said...

Bman are you long C? Do you want to be?

Bud said...

Looks like i shud have listened to you guys on BAC. A quality operation.....lol

Bunkerman said...

yes I have C. I want more in October after more bad news comes out.

Bunkerman said...

Bring back the uptick rule!
Apply it to ETFs!

Frosty said...

HANS wants to 1234 today, so it won't, but looks decent anyway...if we add KO and PEP, JSDA as the spec play we have the pop portfolio...so Bunkerman we now have the death fund, life fund and the pop fund...long term investing indeed.

Frosty said...

HANS wants to 1234 today, so it won't, but looks decent anyway...if we add KO and PEP, JSDA as the spec play we have the pop portfolio...so Bunkerman we now have the death fund, life fund and the pop fund...long term investing indeed.

mfl59 said...

die mkt die...wash out all weak hands....

Bud said...

Yes Bman!! Bring back the uptick rule!!! lmaooooooo


In fact why don't they make a rule...can only short a stock if it green that day. What a bunch cry babies.

Bud said...

HANS is not a 1234. It's filling it's earnings gap. Help him out spin.

Frosty said...

NYX 74.25...someone should be making money this quarter on all the volume with no sub slim exposure.

Frosty said...

fill the gap....you haven't filled any gap since christ was a cub scout Bud...lol

Bud said...

lmaoooo frosty....i have nuthin


i really need to go to the batting cages tonite.....frsoty gettin his slider past me

maverick said...

blood in the streets very tasty lately :)

Bunkerman said...

HANS is a 1234. The first day was the inside day up, then two down days. Today up is the 4.

Glad to provide a bit of rigor ;-)

It's also a bullish flag.

Frosty said...

NYX 73.64 second taste.

Frosty said...

uptick rule...the W market needs no sticken' rules, this is the hildog rally.

Bud said...

CSCO filling gap. Spin a genius.

Bunkerman said...

tempting to buy CSCO at 30. The weekly chart looks great.

Bunkerman said...

I put some CSCO on - LT. It fits my Internet growth thesis. It's about 1/3 position - will average in using time diversification.

I screwed that one up before. I think it can go to mid 40s in the next leg

Frosty said...

uh Bud...should I toss the next one under hand?

Bunkerman said...

The babblers on Babblevision sure screwed up their analysis of that Sentinal redemption freeze. Commercial paper is backed by bank lines (if rated investment grade), BUT those lines protect the paper at MATURITY, not if one is trying to re-sell it.

So if Sentinal was trying to sll paper before maturity to meet redemptions, they might not get good prices, esp. for asset backed paper.

Bud said...

Keep chirpin frosty. After i'm done with you...you'll be 'eligible' for the US womens softball team.

Frosty said...

OHB...taking darkside sugar...sounds like Bud wants to put my sack in the vice....fade away.

Frosty said...

why push the darkside here? it will just trigger the trading curbs to save the common man....DIA hit 137 last week before the upside trading curb kcicked and killed the move...who are we protecting again?

Bud said...

Lmaooo frosty..........the common man.

Bud said...

Frosty..i don't like ELON at all anymore. It was on my list....but it looks horrendous now.

Bud said...

Looks like beefer ping pong to me frosty. Lmaoooooo

Bunkerman said...

It's intersting how the simple IBD rally rules worked here. They would have gotten one out before this.

Frosty said...

ELON...near 22.50 strike should be support Bud....not enough room for a decent fade...what else you got?

Bunkerman said...

Oh Ye of little faith! Disbelieve in beefers at your own risk ;-)

This is setting up a possible "W" formation bottom, by the way.

mfl59 said...

B'man are you wary of a CPI number that is a little hot?

Bunkerman said...

I think a hot core CPI yoy number that is unusally hot would be bad, but I don't expect it.

Since we don't get the next CPI number until the day after the Fed meeting (I don't know if they get it early), a hot core yoy CPI will give the non-cut side more ammo.

SO I certainly prefer a core yoy CPI downtick.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman....W rally...atta boy... welcome back to the team...they may stray but can't stay away.

I maybe be picking up the wrong signal...added another layer of foil to my soup bowl hat.

Bunkerman said...

Bought some S&P eminis for a TRADE on the potential W bottom. In arouna 1439 September contract.

Bunkerman said...

I suspect the rumor-mongering and the removal of the uptick rule is going to lead to a wave of investigations of beefers.

Bunkerman said...

We need the uptick rule for ETFs, too.

Bunkerman said...

Babblevision is so silly - they don't get anyone on who is really against the uptick rule. Just propaganda.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman....so we have put in the bottom and the W rally will lead us to new highs or are you playing vitrutal beefer ping pong on a micro level?

Bunkerman said...

This sure reminds me of summer 1982 when Drysdale Securities and Penn Square fails occurred.

Bunkerman said...

If my trade works, Frosty, I'm leaving it on for the big move up.

Bunkerman said...

I think news flow will detemine the bottom. August has some track record for major bottoms.

Frosty said...

ELON 22.50...you with me Bud?

Bud said...

Frosty i don't believe in pinning.

Bud said...

ELON cud easily work for you here frsoty. But it's not my style. It's a weakness in my trading.....i'm not good at picking turns. I'm much better with the mo.

Frosty said...

Bud we need to find something to buy...Bunkerman is going all virtual beefer on the tape...you don't want him running your upside stops with you having shorted the down tick....hope the trading curbs save you from yourself...lol

Bud said...

Lmaoooo frosty...........trading curbs......what a joke

Bunkerman said...

getting rid of all program trading would be good, too.

Bunkerman said...

maybe quant funds should be banned ;-))

Frosty said...

Bunerkman...my oh my...you need to change your name to "The Regulator...lol

Bunkerman said...

NYSE short interest numbers next week will be very interesting

Bunkerman said...

quant funds doing program trades =>

C3PO – Attack of the Clones
“Machines making machines. How perverse."

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm. quant funds doing programs trades with the vix - a fourth level derivative.

Madness!!!

Bring back humans!!!

Bunkerman said...

It will never happen. The Street makes too much money on those and pays off Congress and the SEC.

mfl59 said...

The Regulator....lol....

Bunkerman said...

hehehe I used to have a fine pair of .45 Long Colt single action revolvers - they were "Regulator" models ;-)

And I had a long plains "duster" too ;-)

Bunkerman said...

I took the small loss on the futs. I don't like the cash close under 1430.

Bud said...

Godammit..............bring back the damn uptick rule. Stox gettin too low to short.............lmaoooooooooo

Frosty said...

spinny..aka the cisco kid...in the virtual saddle with him...buck away beefers, your are about to be riden' hard and put away wet.

mfl59 said...

If the uptick rule were still in effect the Dow would be at 15,000 by now...

Frosty said...

Vick's friends have all turned as of yesterday....not that he has been proven to have done anything wrong...that is just the way the stafffordshire terrier crumbles.

Frosty said...

AMAT that guide down for Q4 just might leave a mark...ouch

maverick said...

Bud won't respond to Vick comments anymore. It is sad. We want the old Bud back.

Frosty said...

Mav I hear ya'...poor sob....that car wash swing shift must be taking it's toll...I will revert back to my kind, gentle self while he get's back on his feet.