Futures are down this morning, as are European stock markets. This might be a correction of yesterday's enthusiasm or a re-thinking. I re-thought my initial annoyance of the Fed for not listening to me ;-)
To prove I am not an ingrained captious* commentator, I will say that "perhaps" the Fed made the correct move. One analysis that I heard of the Fed's actions was that they did not see much risk of a recession now. That "might" be correct. That would also explain yesterday's big move up. Much pressure on stocks had been due to recession-mongering by the bears. If the recession is fading like so many other bearish delusions, then much higher stock prices are justified.
Gold hit $800 yesterday intraday. Oil traded over $96 overnight.
An analyst downgraded C, saying they have a shortage of capital and have to cut the dividend. I'll have to check that out - since they are still profitable, I'm not sure how that makes sense.
Some important economic data come out today - the ISM manufacturing index is most significant to me. If it's under 50, then the Fed timidity will seem a bit more likely to be wrong.
Seasonal strength is upon us. Real buyers have money to put to work. The trend is up. It's a bull market. Buy dips. But be wary and pay attention !
*Captious is the Word of the Day. Captious: adj. given to finding fault or raising petty objections. I first saw that word reading Erasmus's famous work, "Praise of Folly". Here's how he used it re the Stoic philosophers - "... seeing they're so captious and far keener-eyed to pick out their friends faults than an eagle ..."
PS: WSJ story shows BSC leader Cayne as a .. prima donna jerk. No surprise.
PPS: C will probably go down until Chuck Prince goes. The WSJ article showed that his pal, Rubin, out of touch, too. He has to go, too.
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34 comments:
hello from crackerville!
well its sure been exciting here, nothing like starting a new job and landing right in the middle of one of the bigger snafus in retail brokerage this yr.
so i see the fed continues to lower rates and create money.
at the same time, gasoline is nearing its may high.
milk is 5.50 a gallon
t-boned r on sale for 10 bucks a lb
gold 900, silver near 15, oil near 100. health care costs out of control.
all my fave restaurants r dead.
10 chicken wings r now 8 bucks, used to be 4 not long ago.
property taxes up, witch were a lock to go down, said florida congress months ago. and even cutting over 2 billion from education they still havent made it happen.
the dollar has a 76 handle and has lost 37% of its value since bush became leader of the galaxy.
clearly all the jaw boning about the feds main mandate to fight inflation is the biggest fattest lie since bush stating we never invaded iraq becuase we thought they were involved with 911
i give ben and F- for this performance. bush graded is down H or whatever a 25% is worth.
while im leaning in the right direction, it does not take a rocket scientist to tell that inflation is so much higher than 4% its not even funny.
we need a gud ole fashion recession but it was explained to me by one sharp trader y we just cant afford one for about the next 20 yrs.
cant wait for 2008 and see which abortion get elected prez. not one of these people appeal to me more than a fetus on a coat hanger, but even that is better than bush.
south park is on a roll this season, so is sarah silverman.
the colts and pats cover the spread every weekend, my bookie is getting toasted.
going to see bobby wierd for 3 shows in less than 2 weeks.
off to new mexico bro in law getting married.
hope u guys r making money faster than the $ is spiraling down, because if u aint, u r actually getting poorer.
anyone talking to rev, tell him to get his nose out of cramers ass. rev is pathetic. bashes cramer for yrs, says if he ever got the chance he wud debate him on cnbc. when i saw them on cnbc i was puked from the love fest.
how the dawgs, krypto?
peace
eagles sux! flyers sux! sixers sux! phillies sux and please dont sign that freak curt schilling. philly dont need bible thumpers. but we do need a 3rd basemen. A ROD wud hit 65 homers a yr at citizens park.
HSBC is not having a Xmas party this yr. i was stunned when the worden told me that last nite.
the music is playing loudly. the children and women r dancing through the daylight and creating the morning air with song. but at some pt, the band will back up and go. and people will be asking if they were ever hear at all.
enjoy!
Hi mern,
I'm glad you're in demand - that's good and beats the heck out of the alternative !
I hve to fidure out how to make a DVD to send you re the shee herding. Sky is amazing for a 10 month old pup.
More later.
Just check heating oil monthly chart - it's at a record high for the past 10 years or so. Heating oil is close to diesel fuel, but not identical anymore due to low sulphur requirements. So diesel fuel is even higher.
15/8
DIA,SPY,IWM...buy today
Q's(long 53.65)
I miss the mern updates....come back soon
Year over year core PCE +1.8% - in the comfort zone. Good number. Initial claims OK.
mern ..I can mail ya $4 wings..I have a wing autarky from the evil chain restaurants.Ill buy some large envelopes today.....see people if we work together...we'll get through this..lol
so we have 4% GDP growth, every commodity under the sun making new highs, a falling home currency....and the Fed is cutting rates??????? seems to me they should be tightening, not cutting....
it's just the numbers, mfl. 1.8% inflation + 2.5% real = 4.3%, so that's "neutral".
The oil & commodity increases are supply-demand, not excessive money supply. Fed can't control China demand for oil nor provide rain for wheat in Australia
Spin is a word master.
sheesh. yesterday ping ... this morning pong.
Biggs says hedgies net long is lowest in four years.
Hmmm ... 10/2007 - 4 = 10/2003. Good time to be long.
having lived thru the 1970s, I keep wondering where the "flation" is in the recurring "stagflation" comments.
2.5% headline inflation would have been cheered in the 1970s; 1.8% core too
bought some more C, WB
I put my limit order in for BAC at $45 :-((
ISM mfg. number was OK, over 50.
I contend sir that a weak US dollar is contributing mightily to the commodity run, not simply a supply-demand function....me thinks "beefers" are buying them as another way to play a falling US dollar...
Bunerkman...BAC close bleow 46.50 and you get your fill at 45...Nov 1st, since this rally began has been a hang over day, add the fed oct 31st, and we appear to still be drunk.
Bunkerman...we need some of these subslimes to go away...we need something to break, blow sky high to get the fed put back on the table.
re oil, if the marginal buyer of oil is overseas, then it is possible that the weak dollar is pushing it up. But that also requires the supply-deamnd equation that there is more demand overseas and not enough or no new supply.
That article about all those nations who subsidize oil usage was really interesting. That has to stop soon. That could cut demand or at least its growth.
So we could both be right on that one, mfl.
Re other commodities such as wheat, there are real weather issues there for a couple years.
Corn is the stupid ethanol policy.
Copper is flatish.
15/8
DIA....137.15
SPY....152.25
IWM.....80.21
Bunkerman...the rap on tv is that the beefers long record cash levels...how are we going to determine who the real buyers are when they all rush in to play catch up?
I think we can tell by how the money goes to work. Dip buyers are real. Momo buyers are beefer virtual.
Russell buyers, ETF buyers, etc. are beefer traders.
But it will not be easy. We have to look and think. Beefers can cover their tracks well sometimes.
Checked teh Blue Book - C did not cut teh dividend in the 1998 or 2000-2003 periods. Earnings dipped a couple quarters in 2002/3
hang in there Big guy......
Bunkerman...buying the fins in 1990...recall how hard that was...sometimes you just need to say wtf...stick to your guns and get good prices...BAC 45 and double every 5 down...that is what a real buyer would do.
BAC 45s here...any takers?
I remember that well, frosty. I've been buying more on the big moves down.
Being punished for not practicing what I preach re time diversification.
lol mav. My bid is 45.00
this market is a real croxsucker today...nibbling a little BAC no big deal Bunkerman...holding shares of the little plastic shoe cobbler into earnings, now that is pain, not to mention just stupid.
bought some more BAC - that should guarantee my 45.0 bid getting hit
bot more C, too
well, I'm glad I didn't say the "End of the End" of the Rich Man's Panic had arrived. I did have enough patience for that.
Hmmm ... mern posted ... market drops 300 pts ... coincidence ? ;-)
mern...lol...those that can't do teach...hang in there Bunkerman.
staggerlee was a mad man and he shot my billy d
how can anyone believe one piece of data from the bls?
inflation is within a comfort zone.
sure it is, and im richer than bill gates!
blow me frosty!
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