Quite a lot of recent market action is just beefer ping pong aka elephants stomping at the water hole. But some signs of real buying and selling do exist.
1. Clearly real sellers are moving out of the big banks. I suspect that growth & income funds are scared and selling a good bit to shift into other dividend payers like utilities. I also suspect that beefer shorts are magnifying this move. Notice the strength in the Dow Utilities index.
2. The weakness in the Russell over the past four week indicates that beefers are bailing out of that sector as a potential savior for their year end fees. The Russell is a favorite playground for them.
3. The strength in the Nazz 100 whilst all the turmoil has been occurring shows real buyers there, too. Big cap tech sells big money over seas, so perhaps that's the source of the real buyers, there: exports growth. But I suspect some amplification by beefers there, too.
4. The Dow transportation index has been roughly flat for weeks. If a recession was being forecast by major players, one would think that would be going down. It's not.
Interestingly, I heard a French analyst on Babblevision early who said the Euro was overvalued by 50%. Yes, 50%. He thought parity was fair value. I think the Euro strength is due to Persian Gulf money and Russian money who spend lots in Europe. Also, some of those have reasons to avoid the US$ and its banking system, viz. terrorist and organized crime connections.
Gold is about $820 as I write and oil is around $95.50. The all-time high for gold is around $850 for a closing price, but I think the intraday high was closer to $900. I'll do more research as it is getting closer.
The economic trajectory is strong and continuing onward. So it's a bull market, despite all the froth. Over time this fear should dissipate and the up trend continue.
I have sheep herding today so will be out from about 8AM EST thru 1PM EST.
PS: Back. Oil $97. Gold $825.
PPS: Sheesh. Gasparino says Dick Grass's favorite movie was Borat. That movie sucked - I turned it off after about 30 minutes.
P^3S: The S&P cash is looking like a W bottom pattern is forming. Cracking 1520 and holding two days would set it up. There must be a lot of beefer shorts out there - they could get hurt.