Mr. Market gave premature bulls like me another whacking as the beefers played their favorite commodity manipulaltion in breaking a logical support level to run stops and create panic. But the early weakness came from telic selling in Europe, ["telic" means purposeful ] likely by hedge funds there liquidating dollar denominated stocks.
Some heavily leveraged hedge funds received margin calls and a county in Alabama defaulted on the speculative swaps. Shades of Long Term Capital Management and Orange county ! And some mortgage companies are defaulting on margin calls, too. That happened in 1998, too. And I read that home loan default rates are approaching 1985 levels. So this market is showing elements of several prior crises and not following any one model.
All this is part of the bottoming process which is ongoing. I still like the big banks and plan to buy more of their stocks soon. They can borrow from the Fed and are the strong institutions that will do well in the environment that will be created from this restructuring.
Yesterday I sold many miners and smaller energies like SU, MRO, PCU, FCX, VLO, BTU. I think the price increases on their commodities will soon end so they will have trouble rising enough for me to own them. I have kept DVN, CVX, RIG, DO and CCJ. Those have great prospects for deep water discoveries of new oil or service that drilling. CCJ is my uranium play.
I'm selling more silver today and have a lot more to sell provided the prices stay high. My gold & silver sales are now being transferred to the Alpha Fund so I have a lot more buying power. I plan to buy more of my big banks and on serious dips would add to the energy positions I kept.
PS: Did anyone notice that Wal-Mart raised its divdiend yesterday ?
Words of the Day - the "Per's"
"Peradventure" - adverb [$10] or noun (archaic)
Peradventure means (adv.) perhaps; (noun) uncertainty, chance, conjecture, doubt.
Sentence: Will Obama and Hillary peradventure create a unified ticket ? Nahhh.
"Perdurable" - adjective [$10]
Perdurable means very durable.
Sentence: The McCain candidacy has proven itself perdurable as it recovered from both near oblivion and liberal smears.
"Perfervid" - adjective [$10]
Perfervid means marked by overwrought or exaggerated emotion; excessively fervent.
Sentence: The perfervid commentary of the gold and commodity pundits might signal a topping area.
"Perforce" - adverb [$10]
Perforce means 1. by physical coercion; 2. by force of circumstances.
Sentence: The troop surge in Iraq pushed onto Bush by McCain seems perforce to be succeeding in stabilizing that country.
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75 comments:
a lot of jabber this morning about another "emergency" fed rate cut.....sheesh....what say you bunkerman?
nyet ! that's Russian for no.
Interesting, the head of Ambac must read this blog, as he just said what I said the other day about the default curve.
nein ! (German)
no (French ?)
I don't know Spanish.
country white: nope !
Xer: nadda
trucker CBer: negatory
So the monoline panic amounted to a zero. Sigh ...
From what I heard, these loss fears are wayyyy overblown.
perception vs. reality vs. fearmongering.
Fed increases TAFfy;
Working with ECB.
Keep firing, Battleship Ben.
Give those beefer bears a world of hurt.
"A strong dollar is certainly the policy of this administration"...H. Paulson....LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
glad I covered some shorts into that nonsense....freaking Ben....he had to do something before his 9:15 tee time at Kiawah's Ocean Course...
it seems we are adding government jobs and losing private sector jobs....thats not a very promising mix sir...
not good, but the Q is always how bad ?
I still don't see a recession. If Q1 is negative, Q2 will not be negative as Fed cuts, stimulus package etc. will help.
That's my opinion & thinking, obviously many traders disagree.
"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet."
"PPT" on stand-by
Bunkerman...when do we get those big fin 10k's?
covered a good chunk of index shorts...fresh clips indeed Bunkerman...came in nose open dark today, MLF59 refused to talk me down yesterday.
don't know, frosty. I see no date on BAC website.
Bunkerman...you should call investor relations...I suspect, with reason..wink wink...that there could be some delays...as I said yesterday, keeping some powder dry until you have a 10k in hand may be wise...C the first non-prince of pain 10k.
as suspected Ben will play today's round with a putter from the tee, failing to drive the red tee box...wip it out big fella.
PPT remains on call...Ben's job done....he'll meet the boys on the fourth hole...
I'm in no hurry to buy them again. I have plenty. But I'm thinking.
I think Ben uses a Spin Doctor
Dear Sal:
"spare change...they feed on our change. They need it in oreder to keep them moving...It has already forgotton that I've given it change. It just wants...more change."
mr prince a common man...call me chuck...no call inmate #83739.
MLF59 is that you stomping on the gas SMN...watching you.
back from selling gold and silver in triple load ... the public must be buying as the dealer wanted more today.
i paid 257bux for me nad my brother this morning
only 'common man' on this course were the hispanic groundsman
$112 for four??
lmaooooooooooooooo
US banks are a sham
i don't see what you guys see in them
the day of reckoning for american banks is coming
they'll be cheaper
i told you guys Ben wanted to play in peace
he got the new driver out today......he didn't want any thoughts in his head.......messes up his swing plane
what's interesting about the Bman is some of his predictions are playin out 10000%
i read in wsj today that banks are asking for their money back from hedge funds
same article said that beefers can't pay it back cuz they are locked up in derivative after derivative products........it's a derivative black hole
Bman predicted this a year ago
this is not a recession.....it ain't even a depression
this is doomsday
what is frosty sayin??? is he buyin banks?
or he's buyin when Dow breaks 11k?
can't understand a word he says
sheeeeeeeeeeeeeesh
Bud...nice try, not swinging at that meat...that one cleared the back stop...10k, oh brother.
Happy Birthday to yooouuuu
Happy Birthday to yoooouuu
Happy Birthday you ol Hound
LzzrdKing
Happy Birthday to youuuuuuuu
these Congressmen are comical....uh mr. senator. how can you afford 4 vacation homes on your 130k salary?
IM BACK
congrats bud, hildog pulled one out of that large butt of hers. too bad, obama, actually talked about something real (nafta). he deviated from the playbook.
"CHANGE, BELIEVE, HOPE: that is all"
idiot!
i see mccain took time to secure bushs endorsement, my question is y? can u see dubya? he is getting excited! he has like 320 days left and im sure he knows exactly how many days until he can snort coke, drink jack daniels and play golf until he dies.
is this stagflation?
Bunkerman...where is Bud's dow 11000 helmet???...don't know the exact size, just make it fit tight upon a peanut... send it in care of: jeff dunham.
spent 3 days in "the valley" HOLY SHIT! i cud not believe my eyes.
didnt help it was pouring rain and cold as a whiches tit.
i learned a lot about the area, vistited my grandparents graves and great grand parents.
as "the valley" hit bottom? maybe. there aint much there. pittson is done. hosipital closed, churches r being bull dozed. the houses r so delapedated they r simply falling apart.
but underneath, i see some core grass root movements. if they clean up all the pollution from the coal days that ended in 1958 after 10 billion gallons of water flooded the mines, and pull doze towns like glenn lyon where my dad grew up, imo many people retiring from NYC, boston, and philly will move there. y? becuase florida is insanely costly, vs the valley where everything was so cheap including the land i cud not believe my eyes. i bought a pair of nice soccer flats for 10 bucks, probably 50 bucks here.
spent a lot of time hiking behind the woodlands, on wednesday. the river was raging, id say the rapids were class 4 maybe even some 5's. there were some guys shooting the rapids on kayeks, and they were having a lot of fun. we even saw a small black bear, and a mtn lion paw print, in some snow, that was twice the size of my fist.
the area is quite beautiful, needs a make over, and i think it cud evolve from the mining days into a huge retirement area for the bombers.
organic farms, imo, r also likely to explode up there.
also found out my y my great grand father came to america in 1907. this is a big piece to my puzzle. he was a boozer and a gambler. he was drunk, gambling, and was accused of cheating. he tossed the table, took the money and ran. 2 guys jumped him outside in a field. he grabbed a pipe and beat 1 guy to death, and almost the other. he was on the first boat to america in the am, leaving his wife, my grandmother and his other kids behind until 1909 when he settled down in glen lyon.
saw pics of my dad from pre 1960, that i never seen before. holy cow, i look just like him. very interesting trip.
philly is dying. all business owners i talked, rich or poor, all they talk about is inflation.
is that stagflation?
the common man knows it, and they r adjusting.
this hearing is hilarious. these congress people act so shocked. in 2002, if u didnt see this coming, u r an idiot!
mazillo, NICE TAN. started bailing in 2004, ROFL he had no idea!
someone please pull Ben off of the island green at TPC Sawgrass....he is putting for a 7 after he dunked 2 balls with his 9 wood....
this decades manta "FIGHT THE FED!"
2000 hiked rates until may, pretty easy to make money on the long side until mid march.
2001 they cut the first day. bear market spread until early 2003. so fighting those cuts worked until deep into 2002.
they started raising in summer 2003 and kept raising into later 2006, and the tape was bullish.
they started cutting in late 07 and it was been straight down since. even with 125 bips in a week, that bounce is gone.
pretty happy im not involved either way. i didnt think we wud take out the MLK lows, but we r, and oil up another 5% in 2 weeks.
this is stagflation. the worse possible scenario environment for owning stocks.
house accross the street has gone from "price reduced" to "make an offer"
LOL!
is TMA going to make it until Monday?
Bears and Mountain lions??.....did you see the 3 midgets with pitchers of beer on your LSD high???...loool
Ben started swaying on his backswing on the back 9.......lesson with david leadbetter tomorrow
he better play better rest of the weekend..........else 'emergency' cut for next week off the table
nope.....TMA finished
and what else......they owe 610million.....that banks they owe it to......gonna have to write it off.....and the chain reaction continues
this may sound absurd....but i kind of like mozilo....fire wawy...
u ever go to that park, behind the woodlands?
my cuz said the rapids were about 6 times what they usually were.
it was icey, and muddy. it was definitely dangerous, some of the places we went, but it was just so cool.
after 2 hours he was like "u tired yet?" i was like "no way lets keep going, this is awesome". he retorted "dude im 47, and u r the first one who has even been able to hang with me walking around up here. im tired, lets go"
the bear and mtn lion print were exciting. i was surprised that mt lions r up there, but i saw the print, and my cousin has even seem them from time to time. he goes there about 2 to 3 times a week with his plot hound. he buried his first two plots up there and the memorial is getting bigger, other climbers see the graves and leave rocks.
tony was a mechanical engineer, but after 20 yrs burnt out. now building the coffee the business, all by himself. i think im crazy until i see him. he is so off the reservation its crazy. he is fucked 3 ways towards the weekend. no human can stand him for more than 2 days. i thought i mite kill him yesterday. u think im grating????????????? i dont think i got a word in edge wise in 3 days. he told how to manage my marriage better, but hasnt had a girlfriend since 1993. he told i drink too much and smoke too much weed to which i said "do u think so? DUH, i am an alcoholic, but im happy, so leave me alone"
im a drug addict but his doctor told him he had to stop drinking coffee, but still drinks 10 cups a day. on the way back to philly he bought some SBUX coffee. every sip, "OMG this is horrible, digusting, puke!" then take a big gulp and drank the whole thing, pissing and moaning with every sip. i know if taste shit weed or beer i dont drink it or smoke. who is the addict?
;-)
MLF59...do you like him or do you LIKE him?
I find his tan "attractive"...
nice pitch Spinny...mern just screwed himself into the groung with that swing.
yes..it nice back there...just kiddin.....had a black bear in our backyard last year..pretty cool
what happens to the SPX if the US dollar rallies 5%? scary thought Mern I recall a certain "commentator" telling you that floowing the dollar is a waste of time....pffttt....
u guys need to ban smoking from restuarants and bars, it really cut me back on my drinking!
i never knew about the 58 flood. that was game over, after that.
i hope the area evolves into the retirement haven that seems possible. it really is quite beautiful there. seems like a lot of people have left, some towns r just totally dead. other areas r very nice. seems like a lot of good land cud be freed up for farming if they just bull dozed some of those mining towns that r dead.
mfl, i was wrong. the jimmy/revy mush looks gud for about a grand not the 500 handles, i was expecting.
revy!!!!!!!
you should have gotten Tony some action.....lol
Bunkerman...where is the panic...slow bleed to spiddy 1230 not what we need.
he cundt get laid if he went out with brad pitt.
he used to be a stud. he is just so aggresively obnoxious i cant even paint the picture.
"Coffee, coffee, coffee, coffee, coffee, coffe: i make the best: coffee, coffee, coffee, coffee: u r too negative, let it go: but i hate everything, everyone and want to die: coffee, coffee, coffee: u shud have a baby but i have none: coffee coffee coffee coffee: i hate bush. u need to except stillnesss: coffee coffee coffee coffee: i hate all women!"
try and get that laid!
peace out
i start monday. ill check in from time to time.
die hiliary die!
Ms. Market plays tough, frosty.
Not all declines end as expected by the techies.
Bought more WB - I need more pain ;-)
good luck, mern.
spoos rally a few points and the VIX goes into hiding...where's the fear?
did Ben birdie 18??
Martini tonight. Drinks on Au and Ag. :-)
No Bud Ben shanked a couple balls out of bounds...that putt was for a 7, not a 3....
Mr. G just knocked in a 2 footer for a 137.....
WB???????????
seems to me like a bank failure is near
armageddon for US banks is nearing
uh Bud .. hedge funds getting margin calls is heaven :-)
More need to be taken out & shot. Maybe the banks & prime brokers will stop lending to them ... that would be great!
That would provide the panic --herds of beefers going perdition.
and the dumb rich getting sheared.
Heaven for the common man investor.
breaking news...here's chuck...he must be in make up.
though thats 137 gross for a net 71....
i wud really luv to know if mr G is short a large bank or mortgages or the US dollar
prolly all 3
137....no worries
mr G was seen smiliin and gigglin the whole round
he was checkin quotes on his blackberry throughout.......he cud not stop laughin
uh mern ... no inflation ... you saw it.
Mr. G get his orders from his beefer masters now ... they set up a trade & bring him out to mouth off to bring it home.
There is no manipulation ... lololol
'beefer masters'
looooooooooooooooooooool
do you really think mr G's masters tell him what to say in his speeches and interviews?
seems to me like he can make a pretty nice livin just expressin his own opinions
why wud he compromise his integrity?
he got 8m for his memoirs.....surely you can't be serious
uh ... integrity and hedge funds ... that's an oxymoron.
An ex-fed chief with integrity would not be mouthing off like him. ... or working for a hedge fund [ aka satan ;-) ]
ok you liberal arts guys:
Au = gold
Ag = silver
Chemical names from latin words.
Auric Bunkerman
Augie Bunkerman.
:-))
good week bunker boys...going for a double load of frosty malted beverages...there is always a bull market somewhere.
Hmmm Mrs. B could be Aggie Bunkerman ;-)
A couple: Auric & Aggie Bunkerman !
MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!...Let the booooze flow boys!!!!..thanks
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