À propos my investments, I've been riding this bull elephant for awhile quite comfortably. I'm starting to wonder if a few elephants in the herd are getting a bit hungry, though, or thirsty. For example, AAPL and GS. Those were leaders in the herd, but have faltered and are unable to make new recovery highs as the averages do just that. This tweaked my memories of past bull market runs and some lore from the very, very distant past from that great speculator, Jesse Livermore. I'm not drawing any conclusions, but my investigative urge has been kindled. Today I'll look over a lot of charts to see what they show me.
I expect a good jobs number tomorrow and Ms. Market seems to do that, too, this morning.
BAC says it's going to repay $45 billion in TARP funds. They are going to issue lots of common shares. Ugh ... A problem in analysis for all these big banks ... what is the stabilized earnings potential ? The old EPS levels won't work as estimates because they have all issued so many shares. I suppose one would have to convert the old EPS to $ and then divide by the new shares outstanding.
I am re-checking Krypto Fund for asset allocations. Getting close, perhaps.
World Events
The bad boys continue acting like bad boys. WSJ reports that Iran is threatening people in the US who criticise it on the Internet. Russian judges who criticize the security services get sacked.
Honduras, however, seems to have survived a power grab by proto-fascist ex-President Zelaya. An election is ... an election. Good for the people of Honduras and its leaders.
Is Brazil's President Lula trying to grab attention on the world stage ? He's made some rather odd public statements lately. That's a worry for investments in Brazil in my opinion, Hubris is at work, methinks.
Word of the Day
"Syllabub" - noun [$10]
Syllabub means a dessert made of cream or milk flavored, sweetened and whipped to thicken it.
Sentence: Will tomorrow's job's number be a tasty syllabub for the return to normalcy stock market banquet since early March, to will it disappoint like a bowl of raspberries with a worm in it ?
Btw, I once was served a bowl of raspberries with a worm at a famous NYC restaurant. As I was with a client, I surreptitiously removed the crawling bug.
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46 comments:
Initial Claims 457K vs 480K consensus, prior revised to 462K from 466K
-> last week's low number verified, no fluke.
good morning Bman !!!!!
all i want for xmas is a strong dollar
so i spoke to the manager at einstein bagels this morning...........he confirmed that prices are higher than last year.......why ?? he said his raw material costs went up
CPI says no inflation???? huh ????
what a bunch of thumping tosh
"what is the stabilized earnings potential ? The old EPS levels won't work as estimates because they have all issued so many shares. I suppose one would have to convert the old EPS to $ and then divide by the new shares outstanding."
should I point out all that is wrong with this statement or allow you to amend it...that is the question.
good call jobs trend Bunky.
I can think of a number of other problems with using the old $ number ... so no need.
This particular problem makes a quick look impossible-misleading, though.
the problem with that test, Bud, is that even when one proves that wheat prices are lower, they say flour prices ar eup. Maybe true, as the big compnaies are trying hard to raise prices. I've even heard them say "raw materials" but that's demostrably wrong. They jsut say what they think the public (the booboisie) will believe.
For coffee, I suspect little change, but I don't follow that market any more.
another way of looking at it ... you fell for it. Welcome to the great genus of homo boobus.
;)
idaho spuds pricing 3-3.5 per 100 lb...cost of production $7...eat more spuds Sal.
cost of production $7.....pfttttt....Ill just leave it at that..cuz Im a gentleman
what a game tonite !!! the civil war !!! rose bowl on the line
who are you rooting for ace ?? the oregon beavers or the oregon state beavers ??
I did a few Krypto Fund asset re-allocations
sold some REITs, gold+gold stocks, and emerging markets to cash (money market)
Will re-deploy cash later, TIPs prices suck now, as to taxable bond prices.
This was all in retirement accounts.
Bunky any comments BAC capital raise, rather complex structure.
haven't seen details, frosty.
"common equivalent securities"
lol
sheesh, you'd think the world would know now that complexity is a fundamental problem.
when things go wrong, the structures can collapse.
I know LMAOOO, don't recall that term...you investment bankers are an amazing bunch, lipsticking the pig...shareholders bend over..."common equivalent securities" coming your way.
Russets.. yield per acre 14 tons x $300 = $4200... exp $3500/acre.. $700 /acre x 100 acres 70k...EZPZJAPANEZE
Bunky you actions indicate sell the news friday, is that correct sir.
yes, frosty, that is my "feeling" today.
If good news, theh EZ money is in the bank.
that Monday mfl can ask that regular question ....
"i spoke to the manager at einstein bagels"...I could take this comment and run with it, but Sal hiding, has me on ignore...calling off the dogs...sorry I hurt your feelings.
"There are a few trades to be found"...thx jim...oh that's right, first of the month...busy punching visa skim tickets...never mind.
link didnt work
US: Idaho spud growers say prices too low for profit
Leaders of potato grower industry groups say a stellar growing season has been offset by prices for Idaho potatoes that have dropped to less than half of what it cost farmers to grow this year's crop.
The cost per hundredweight of potatoes is ranging between $3 and $3.50, but the expense of planting the tuber was more than $7 per hundredweight, according to the Potato Growers of Idaho. advocacy group.
"The situation is very severe," the advocacy group's executive director, Keith Esplin, told the Post Register.
Growers are also losing money because people are not eating as many potatoes as they have in the past, said Carl Taylor, chairman of United Potato Growers of Idaho.
With higher potato yields compared to last season, and less of a demand from consumers, prices have naturally gone down, said Taylor, whose cooperative counts about 80 percent of eastern and southern Idaho farmers among its members.
"Growers are losing a tremendous amount of money every day," Taylor told the Post Register. "There really aren't many people going to Sizzler or Outback and buying a baked potato and a T-bone."
Idaho farmers planted more acres of potatoes than last season, resulting in a 12 percent increase in production, a U.S. Department of Agriculture study says.
"It's the curse of the great year," said Park Price, president of Bank of Idaho, a major source of loans for eastern Idaho farmers. Most growers borrow money to plant each year's crop.
As growers start to determine how to pay for next year's crop amid a loss in potato sales, those who can't repay the money they borrowed to plant this year will be left with some tough decisions, said Boyd Foster, who farms in the Ririe and Osgood regions.
"It becomes extremely difficult to get financing to go forward when your projections show a loss," Foster said.
Bunkerman what sectors/individual names would you look to short sir?
lolol yes, that was the question, mfl.
I'll look first at the old leaders.
then think of other sectors.
I'm thinking how to play them, whether shorts or puts.
I'm leaning to shorts as the slide I envision would not be fast ... maybe a slow grind lower.
I suppose I could write calls, but that's a type of trade that is difficult for me to get used to.
perhap I'll write some calls, then use the money to buy puts
a split strike sythetic short.
R Murray..PA..."deal with it cry babies!!"its a life style
that strategy lacks commitment indeed...nonono run out and go all in dark fat al.
Bunky...you are worried Ben is gonzzzooo...you can say it, we are big boyz, we can handle the truth.
my tactics depend on my outlook; one size does not fit all.
I try to figure out how to make the most money IF what I think comes true.
no, not worried about Ben.
Just think that market has little ups (after jobs rally to come !) with much beter news.
that will be slow coming, imho.
So the beefers will sell it to lock in fees.
I think they are already distributing the leaders.
Mrs B a lil sugar T VZ perhaps...wouldn't blame you at all...your the best.
confused, stupid, perhaps both...are we talking sell the news in the morning or buyers and a push higher? MG to head.
IF I am right on jobs & mkt ramps, I will take the sugar on my remaining calls, etc.
Then I look for shorts.
IF I am right & market does little, I will wait for a ramp over next week or so.
In either case, I will do some more asset allocations on a further ramp.
And I will not short until a push higher occurs after good jobs news.
isn't a "good" jobs # seemingly pretty well baked into the cake here? just sayin...
Mrs. B is the ultimate "buy & hold" in her Sky Fund.
I think that cake is not quite done.
Bunky...gonna need your real buyers, I just don't see any bears around...sure "homo boobus" bear chatta, nonono money where the mouth is at.
real buyers need the jobs number to materialize.
that's why I'm being patient.
Uh .. frosty ... do you have buck fever ?
It's deer gun season in SE Ohio - lots of good hunting ....
Uh .. frosty ... do you have buck fever ?...LMAOOO...out friday so I feel compelled to do something with my book...when you start going off "befferstyle" I pay attention.
Sal, where is our $VIX trade.
hmm pressure ... do many beefers read this blog ... front-running me ?
Or did super beefer GS put out a estimate for bad jobs #
they put those out every month right before the report .. to "select" clients.
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