Whither Now ?

The jobs number came in quite good, as this blog had expected. Friday was volatile as the initial rally brought out selling on the news. I was part of that selling, letting all my speculative positions go on the morning rip up. At some point, however, I think that real buyers will move cash into the market as their confidence in the economy must now be much better. I would not be surprised as a modest rally, but the major resistance at S&P 1200 looms large. Many early buyers will likely sell there, or near there.

The risk-reward is now not what my speculative juices need. I will wait in cash for better long prices lower, or short sales higher.

Long term, two major problems loom: ObamaCare and climate change regulations. Both can create major stagnation as they will divert huge resources to non-productive ends. Instead of investing for growth, business will be forced to spend more money to make the same things. This did happen in the 1970s. That period also saw inflation rise due to central bank errors. Whether the Fed makes errors, time will tell.

I've climbed off the bull elephant and now will wait in the shade for a new trend to develop.

Book of the Week

The Peasant Prince: Thaddeus Kosciuszko and the Age of Revolution by Alex Storzinski. This superb book is a biography of Thaddeus Kosciuszko, covering both his heroic deeds in the American Revolution as the chief of engineers for the American army and in his native Poland, where he led two revolutions for freedom. [Note: the 'sz' in his name is pronounced 'sh'.] The extremely well written book uses extensive original Polish source and American source material. Koscuiszko was truly devoted to freedom for all, even more so than American founding father Thomas Jefferson. Koscuiszko left his entire revolutionary war pay in trust to Jefferson, who was a personal friend, to use to buy freedom for slaves in America. He also led early efforts to free serfs in Poland, and the revolutionary constitution of May 3, 1791 is commemorated in the great Polish epic poem, Pan Taddeus.

I enjoyed the details in the book - letters preserved actual conversation in summary. Koscuiszko had personal contract with Franklin, Washington, Gates, and Greene, all authentic heroes of American Independence. I had not known the details of Koscuisko's crucial role in the Battle of Saratoga, which turned the tide and made American freedom assured as long as the nation could hold out. Without Koscuisko's engineering skill preparing the American defenses, that battle could have been lost.

Also, the book's details of his leadership roles in the revolutions in Poland against Russia and Prussia, as well as Napoleon's double dealings were fascinating. Eastern Europe is now an important part of NATO and the EU. Understanding the history of that region and its people's multi-century struggles for freedom is crucial for bridging the huge cultural gap. Kosciuszko is true pillar of strength for freedom - a hero of both America and Poland. This book should be read now by anyone serious about history.

I recommend this book highly. It is best available at Polonia Bookstore (where I purchased my copy) as http://www.polonia.com/ [Don't be intimidated by the Polish language - type 'Koscuiszko' into the site's search box and you'll see the book in the results. Or you can find it on http://www.amazon.com/

Word of the Day

"Numinous" - adjective [$10]
Numinous means 1. indicating a presence of divinity; 2. spiritual; 3. awe-inspiring.
Sentence: The opening ceremony to the Copenhagen conference on climate change tried to put a numinous glow onto its affairs, but perhaps simply added more proof that the entire affair is like a convention of a mass movement: money and power rule by a clique. Freedom of the common man and his prosperity is at serious risk there.