Monday, November 12, 2007

Monday in the Bunker

Not much is going on.

Yesterday was Veterans Day. I sent some large donations to the USO, Operation Home Front and the "Fisher House" in Dayton, Ohio. Those are fine organizations that do a lot for servicemen and their families.

Asia was down big, but futures are up and Europe is up in early trading.

Barron's reported some large bearish sentiment numbers plus increased short interest. With so much money in beefer trading funds and no uptick rule, I think the shorts can have their evil way with Ms. Market at will. I noticed in the summer how large short interest eventually overwhelmed the markets. I think that might have happened again in early October. With trillions are their disposal, I suppose this is no surprise. We'll have to live with the increased volatility, unfortunately, since the SEC is in the pockets of the Street and the beefers.

What to do? Be even more patient in buying long term positions. I think we can expect beefer rotations and bear raids to create great buy points. So one should spread out buys even more and really wait for a bear raid to load up.

Dubai makes a huge aircraft purchase. Hmmm no slowdown there.

That big oil find in Brazil in the deep water shows that one should stick to deep water drillers for oil service buys. Long term, that's where the oil is and they have the expertise to get it out. I have RIG, DO, GSF and NE; RIG and GSF are merging soon, by the way.

These oil finds might replace lost production from declining fields over the years - they do take many years to get to production.

For US oil companies with serious deep water efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, I have CVX and DVN. Both have made large finds and have many leases.

The super SIV seems to have legs and is going forward. I would like to buy more C if I can get a good price. Plus, I want more BAC, WB and JPM. But I'm not hurry and will not buy unless I get a really good price as I already have a lot. Calling my original plans for these 100%, I recently doubled my plans to go to 200% and now have about 150%. So I have a good bit more that I want to buy.

19 comments:

Bunkerman said...

Gold, silver, oil getting smacked hard. Cashin said margin clerks are telling hedgie speculators to cut back.

Frosty said...

GOLD MIST...new whip in the house?

Bunkerman said...

not yet, frosty. It should be delivered soon.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...thinking many looking for a typical turkey move and a potential bottom...not my feeling at this point, not enough pain...are you planning on trading around those fins a little.

Bunkerman said...

After Dec 1, I might take some tax losses, depending on what's happening then.

But no, I'm not trading them at all.

Bunkerman said...

Wild moves in the miners today. This is just ludicrous. How can anyone not see that there is just too much money in hedge funds?

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...check out POT MOS...beefers indeed...the carry trade don't ya' know :)...long live the VIX.

mfl59 said...

the selling in the metal stocks is comical....

Bunkerman said...

When one beefer yells fire and runs out, they all follow like lemmings. Then the others start shorting. Ludicrous.

mfl59 said...

seems like a beefer or two is getting liquidated....either that or this is one angry mkt...

Bunkerman said...

How can any rational person not recognize that beefers are a major factor in interpreting the market moves?

I heard that many are getting bigtime redemptions. And I suspect margin liquidations, too.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...the common man with an eturd account is a likely seller into the beefer games...500k protected and 100k cash, but the fear must be thick...eturd the home of many of the sales of those tech winners...the common man has no chance.

Bunkerman said...

interesting, frosty. True, many traders use eturd.

Frosty said...

Bunkermna...SEC looking at GS trading...if they can't skin their own beefers, how do they make numbers? ie beefers getting hit today.

Bunkerman said...

looks like weekend panic causing mutual fund selling at the close.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...did some buying into the close...had some deep bids hit...we shall see...I mean some deep bids in a few of my fav small caps.

Frosty said...

amazing some of the fills...I suspect there may be few that will be broken.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...still watiting for my dow 12000 helmet...need I tell you agian this is all your fault :)

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh ... Dow 12000 helmet !

Maybe a Dow 10000 flak jacket, too.