I made it home to Massachusetts ... flying sure sucks, but I guess it's better than driving 13 hours as one ages. My plane was late, as is normal nowadays. But the car service was on the ball and delivered me to my hidden, snow-covered bunker with no problems.
The forest is beautiful here with the trees covered with frozen snow and ice - very picturesque.
Hello recession mongers ... my plane from Columbus to Boston was full and loaded with business people working on laptops and blackberries. A big guy in a high school sweatshirt listening to Judy Garland on his iPhone was quite unique; very few "leisure" travelers.
No recession without Fed betrayal.
The Merrill losses will be interesting. Why is Merrill a survivor ? Should it not be sold to JPMorgan and the trading operation zeroed. The brokerage, investment and private bank is quite valuable, but that's all.
Actually, part of my long term thesis on the big banks is that "creative destruction" will destroy much of the hedge fund industry, which is really a scam on the wealthy anyway. All those "investment banks" making money on "prime brokers" are just trading frauds. They created fake securities [aka most "derivatives" ] and traded with each other and ran up the values and made commissions and booked gains, etc., but it was all just paper. Few "real" securities issued by a real company were behind them. Derivatives were created to add to leverage to skirt the margin rules.
So now Merrill Lynch pays the price. And at least Bank of America is selling its "prime" brokerage operations.
My point is that on a reversion to "reality-based" financing, the big banks will hold all the cards: sources of real money to make real loans. Hedge fund "fake banks" go to the dumpster. Small banks got their noses bloodied and will just revert to buying loan participations from the big boys like before. GS, LEH, etc. revert to a hedge fund and pure investment banks. So the big banks will be able to control the markets, increase spreads on loans and fees and mint money for years. Obviously the infatuation/bubble in securitizing everything is over.
Alas, I was early and some big banks like C were really stupid, too. But longer term, I think this will really pay off.
I am noodling over many adds at these low prices, but will likely wait until the Fed meeting of late January. Ms. Market has been betrayed by the Fed twice already. No more, please.
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Gosh, Babblevision sure is shallow. I have a lot of trouble bearing it .. maybe I need to switch to Bloomberg more.
MEER reportes $12/share loss in Q4. They lost $3/sh in Q3, too. So that's $15/sh.
Let's add up the earnings for prior years and Q1 and Q2. Those add to about $17. So MER did not make a cent for the past three years ?
How much did executives extract from the firm over that times ... bilions.
Is this not a de facto example of a scam on the investors ?
switched to Bloomberg ... I can't take the interruptions of the guests and the pontifications by reporters.
A huge loss is not good even if its "everything". There is reality to consider.
I am getting the impression that a considerable amount of the losses of MER were caused by them creating these CDO^2 entities. And those seem to have been created to paper over the inability of MER and others to sell the BBB- pieces of other CDOs.
So were/are those really a form of fraud?
By the way, I don't understand why the rating agencies rated those as they did - I asked the rating agencies about that over 15 years ago and they said no. I guess they went down the darkside, too as memories of the 1990 Resolution Trust mess faded.
Bman you have been uncharacteristicly calm and quiet the last week or so.............no beefer ping pong, uptick rule, we need more regulations, guttin their own beefer, hogs at the trough......etc....
makes me think you sold down alot some down back.......are you extra heavy in cash?
no matter if your time horizon is 1 week, 1year or 10years.........if you think a stock is goin down the right thing to do is get out..........there are scores of ...uh...'good companies'.....that will never see 2000 prices ( or even 2007 prices)
well done if you did sell awhile back........did my 'recession mongering' help?
if so
my job is done here
Bloomberg is an excellent channel
i try to catch cnbc for santelli, david faber and the 1 minute cashin is on
according to bloomberg tv.....wall street bonuses last year was 39B.....total compensation was 66B
ps......i finally agree with Bman here.....i have no problem with ceo's makin zillions as long as the owners ( shareholders) are makin money...........but bonus shud be zero if when you take 11B writedowns and the stock has gone south
I posted quite a few sales in general: I think in Sept/Oct I posted some sales in some energies and then again posted some sales in the first few days of 2008 and then posted that I took a lot of money out of my Alpha Fund in October since it was way too large - the daily size of the fluctuations was scary.
So I took a lot of sugar - all long term gains and the choices were mostly determined by tax dates.
But I bought a lot of the big banks too early and added too early, too. My trannie play was early, too.
I'm pretty long right now, but not near the limits right now by any measure.
So I'm thinking of buying a lot soon.
I stopped using the waterhole and beefer stomping parodies when the downtrend became more obvious late Dec.
I disagree about selling ST - I've been quite hamstrung in taking some big sugar because of some trades I did before I completely stopped ST trading in May or so. Those tax dates made me miss some good sales recently so I have to wait for the next swing up .... it will come, I am patient.
Beefer stomping will return, you can be assured - it's such a fine analogy to reality.
Let me also say I have lots of $$$ not in the Alpha Fund and lots of other income not market related, so am not reliant on it for income. That's related to my "castle" or "secure base" posts - I can take big risks with it and not lose [too much] sleep.
I don't like losing money or being wrong, though. I'm a very motivated investor.
A trader using all his capital for income must trade a lot more than me and not take the risks I do.
LT, though, I think my style really pays off bigtime in total dollars of after tax profits.
that sugar taken is part of the reason my returns were so high in 2007, even though my bank and trannie investments in the second half sucked.
Substantial sugar taken in earlier 2007 was the other reason. My miners and energies gave one lots of fine selling poitns on the swnings up, and I had quite of bit of early dated stock for LT gains at every rip.
agree on all fronts Bman.
what up with that?
again it amazing to me, to see the MER losses. how cud they be so stupid, again?
who cud not see this coming, in housing.
remember bud no on #1, if u own your condo. and if u dont own vote no anyway, and help me out!
F BOMBS ON THE MER CALL? rofl
cramer mite stroke out any sec
FINGERS CROSSED!
santelli slammed cramer
nice!
we need a tape of that MER call
"you guys fucked me"
lmaoooooooooooooooo
it's not being stupid - jsut sleaze ala Ebbers-Enron etc.
Fake gains, get bonus, buy condo & Lamborgini. When losses come ... oh well, the bonus was paid in cash, not stock.
All management was on the same page. Loot and pillage.
The entire Board should be fired on MER and C
really ... F-bombs on a CC ? Wowza.
MER to the dumpster.
Uh ... the unemployment number was good. No recession.
Sheesh ... babblevision is just fearmongering endlessly with no facts to support it.
cnbc has me rofl this am.
gotta search utube for the unedited MER call.
todd harrison, and john succo at minyanville (revs fave site) look very gud right now.
they have been long commodoties and short the financials since 2003. they must be cleaning up right now.
u guys dont have fox biz channel? claman is on there from 2 to 4
wonder how much meat is on the bone at MER? that looks headed to 27ish. now doubt they r some of the biggest scum bags in the biz.
can this unravel like WCOM?
guess there is more meat on the bone than WCOM or the chins wudnt be giving them billions.
like cramer said, u do u want to sell yourself to the communist or the terrorists?
great
How does a firm that wipes out three years of bull market earnings survive? Long term holders should be pressing for a sale.
no Fox biz here.
if i were playing, maybe fade 10am.
last bear market everytime dubya hit the airwaves we wud slide.
ben mite be the poster boy for this bear (but dont believe it is his fault. greenspan and the MER's created this), and whenever he speaks (even on eco stimulus) the beefers mite press the darkside.
"all are businesses are doing really really well"
john thain a minute ago
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOO
is this a recession?
The former princess of pop stirs up controversy wherever she goes lately. On Sunday, Spears grabbed dresses from the racks at the Betsey Johnson store at Westfield Fashion Square in Sherman Oaks and disappeared into a dressing room with Ghalib, Life and Style magazine reported.
Moments later, she came out completely naked.
"I was blown away. Britney's private parts were right in front of me!" a store employee told Life & Style. "I grabbed a dress to cover her, and she screamed, 'Get away from me! Don't you [bleep]ing come near me!' ... Then she disappeared in the dressing room with Adnan for 45 minutes. They were making weird noises. It was disgusting."
When Britney and Adnan emerged, "I couldn't understand a word she was saying. She was slurring and spitting and talking with a British accent," said the employee. "Her face was covered with cold sores and acne, and her scalp was patchy. I wanted to help her, but she was so mean that I left her alone. Then she muttered, '[bleep] you!' and left the store."
bud, u mite have a chance with britney. she has sunk that low
ben gonna get hammered by a bunch of morons.
ive got TO crying as my screen saver. it makes me lol everytime i see it.
i guess philly is going to 0
Philly Fed lmaoooooooo...nothing but crackheads and heroin addicts in that city...
lol Philly fed -20
philly fed
lmaoooooooooooooo
i guess the recession only hittin philadelphia
Hmmm max pain ... ops ex Friday ... bears load up ... Fed emergency rate cut at 8:30AM Friday.
Bears get impaled :-)
That do you think, Frosty ?
maybe the Philly meth labs are doing layoffs ?
Suburban druggies can't afford gas to drive to the hood to make their buys ?
ok........let's take a closer look
we have a pollyanna that's sayin 'no recession' based on 1 flight from ohio to boston
and then we have a horrid philly number
'laptops and blackberries'
lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
dow down 50 handles since ben started yapping
ya philly is hurting. the lack of eco activity of the reid brothers is hurting.
manufacturimg base, GONE!
everyone is pilled out and on welfare.
nice
OMG i was right about something, the 10 am fade. must be close to a bottom.
Stevenson Texas...UFO sighted several times past few days...one farmer said he could make out a sing or sticker on the side of the UFO...he claims it said: hildog for president.
Bunkerman, this fed likes to sucker punch...with the spy trading under 1370, they best go ahead or the young guns here may well be right.
Stevenson Texas...UFO sighted several times past few days...one farmer said he could make out a sing or sticker on the side of the UFO...he claims it said: hildog for president.
Bunkerman, this fed likes to sucker punch...with the spy trading under 1370, they best go ahead or the young guns here may well be right.
toddo moving from stagflation to deflation camp. he makes a lot of sense, again.
he still thinx we unwide a lot more, even commodoties.
you need to think multi-dimensionally, Bud. Let me help .. with another analogy:
Ben thinks no recession, too. So thats two of us. And he'll be right IF AND ONLY IF he does what his fellow Harvard classmate says.
Think about a horse race ... the horse is falling behind and in a static world, would lose due to poor jockey actions ... but the jockey "finally" uses the whip to spur him on to win.
That's how the economy is now - it needs the whip to keep going and negate the downward moemntum of past Fed failures ... if the Fed does it well, no recession will occur ;-)
I know Im in the minority here but I like Ben....I think he has done a decent enough job....people act like the bear market is his fault, which is pure nonsense...I believe people greatly overestimate the effect of the Federal Reserve, especially on stock prices...okay Bunkerman-let me have it...
hard to believe GDP is expanding as of right now. billions r being wiped off the books.
foreclosure very high. credit cards cant get there money. biz confidence is going down.
the psychology is there, we are in a recession. now it is in the headlines, it is self fullfilling.
if the fed goes 75 bips at the next meeting, that mite help. too late to cut intermeeting, imo.
the trend is down, and will likely stay down, bounces aside, until the end of month. the nazz mite finish the month down 15%.
agree mfl. this was destined to happen when easy al took rates to 1%.
ben inherited a shit sandwhich
lmaooooooooooo
i luv how Bman likes to 'educate' me with analogies
apparently he has no respect for iowa state
rofl, what an idiot. she tought ben was the ceo of GS.
lotta brain power in dc?
executives giving their pay back.
i wonder if this congress person can even balance her check book?
Iowa State is a fine institution ... it has a fine wrestling team and a fine veterinary center, a NASA center and a fine Animal Science department, among others.
increase food stamps?
r u serious?
that is already a huge scam.
wanna stimulate that part of the economy, make crack, coke and meth legal, and tax the stuffing out of it.
fox biz crushing ben
I guess the world will no longer need oil ...
Now, that's beerfer action.
Well, mfl ... Ben has done OK in the overall picture, but has missed some big plays. For exampole, he did stop raising rates, but stopped too late. That was the Maria tryst error. And he started cutting rates, but too late. And then the rate cuts were not vigorous enough and the Fed language was practically wrong, in its undue focus on inflation.
Now I know he's not a dictator and has numerous academic pinheads on teh FOMC, but ...
He's the boss and needs to do a better job. The TAF does seem to be a good move - it worked well.
He's got a big job, yes, is not a star ... yet. Maybe he'll get better over time, but a good Fed man has to step up now and lead.
I even am troubled why he can't orchestrated a mid-meeting rate cut. Are the Fed fools on his FOMC too powerful? If so, they need to be put into a headlock and taken to the mat.
Uh ... Bud ... that's a wrestling analogy ... get it ? ;-))
am I mistaken in thinking there is panic selling of everything going on ?
Ben has to step up......Market giving him the finger with his tough guy(Bud) words..Action Ben Action...otherwise...theyre going to keep taggin the Fed Reserve walls with BEN IS A PUSSY!!!
was browsing houses for sale in Ohio just to see what its like out there...one can buy a mansion for about 250k....sheesh...
agree Spin. the beefers are going to push this market down until Ben says, "uncle"
No real buyer will take the risk until sure he won't betray them again. The Fed screwed the real buyers twice already. No third time with proof.
take a look at the monthly chart in INTC.
The entire bull market since 2003 has been being wiped out.
same for GE ... earnings up 50% but stock back to the drawing board.
mite need to see a blow off in gold, and oil.
stagflation is going away fast.
about time.
deflation is a real risk here.
ya u can buy detroit for 250k
mfl
One love.....One life....Come to Scranton and... you'll be...alright
lool
from Elliot Wave, this intermedaite term move is about over.
There was a five wave down pulse Oct to late Nov, then a three wave rally, and thena five wave down move began ... now we are in the fifth wave down of the five.
On the weekly S%P, this is wave C of the ABC correction of the 5 wave move up from Mid 2006 to Oct 2007.
So I need to get ready to pull the trigger. Gotta get my lists ready.
Doing nothing until the Fed proves itself
mfl..Cramer bustin your chop!!!
"Great job Ben!!!!!
LMAOOOOOOOOO
you going to take that?
im going to Pittson for a vacation!
tour all the abandoned buildings.
maybe get a pie from the victory pig.
arent they putting a new disco in down town?
"tour all the abandoned buildings."
looool..I dont know.......they took Spinny's disco shoes away..prolly from setting the floors a firrre!!!!..lmaoooo
maybe ill buy the woodlands. what is that going for? 58 bucks?
Tens of thousands of Pennsylvania high school seniors who failed state math and reading tests got "empty diplomas" last year because they had not learned basic skills, Pennsylvania Education Secretary Gerald Zahorchak says.
Statewide, 45 percent of the 127,000 seniors failed the tests, leading Zahorchak to lament that diplomas were awarded to many who "show up and shut up."
pa is the new fl?
Even in high-achieving districts such as Unionville-Chadds Ford and Lower Merion, slightly more than 20 percent of graduates did not pass at least one test.
lower friggin merion? i seriously cant fathom that. spoiled rotten rich kids with a sense of entitlement out the wazoo.
lol MER down 5 pts. that dope, Gasparino was kissing Thain's butt.
is the big one coming Bunkerman? seeing some real puking out there....
y is MER down thain said "all businesses r doing great"
that was gud one!
another 630 pts and ill nibble, that shud be tuesday, if this keeps up.
when kass gets bullish, pain for the bulls. time after time.
fox saying traders on the floor r hoping for a whoosh to 11k
naw, mfl.
But the marekt is controlled by the beefers as no uptick rules lets there billions of shorts just hammer everything.
With Ben being castrated by his FOMC dwarfs, every real buyer is now hiding in his ... bunker.
goddammmit!! bring back the uptick rule!!!
lmaooooooooooooooooo
boomers gonna figure out that stocks and real estate wont get them where they need to be in a few yrs.
structual changes seem to be forming
all that butter is melting away.
even though i like him more than elmer, ben mite have to go. he mite be the fall guy for this whole mess.
late 90's was tech and the accountants. this time it was the banks and the lenders. and it really obvious that deriviatives were and are financial weapons of mass destruction.
elmer shud be lynched
right mern .. they can buy T-bonds for 4% and live off dogfood
The basic problem the bears and fearmongers have in longer time frames [i. e., non-trading frames]is that companies are flush with earnings and cash, prices are cheap and there is a lot of money on the sidelines.
This is nothing like 1987.
Hmm .. I guess bunkerman was right when he said that derivatives and hedge funds need to be regulated. Gosh, I remember some saying that no one had ever gotten hurt by them. As if an LTCM could never happen again. Hmmm where was that "wisdom" dispensed like toilet paper ? Sheesh some guys in that place really hammered me for that.
Sigh ... Bunkerman right again.
Ben gonna cut 75bps tomorrow am....so my sources tell me...watch those shorts
tender vittles aint bad
:-)
no shorts here ... but I have need to get my buy list ready
mfl with his W impersonation to the captain of the Titantic....Commodore Edward John Smith...
Doin a heck of a job Smitty
loool
what a mush ben is. 370 handles lost from when he opened his mouth.
75, in the am, wud give us a big gap up, followed by a major selloff, imo.
if the fed willing to risk the last bit of credibility they have?
maybe if we lock limit down in the am, and then he does, it mite work. in 98, it worked becuase they did right in the middle of a bad day and no one was expecting it. we are expecting this decade.
ben said this time last yr, inflation wud rollover in the 3rd and 4th q. also subprime wud be contained. so him saying eco activity will pick up this yr (which may be right) doesnt carry any weight.
and with the election this is gonna be a long yr.
yes living off 4% isnt easy but it can be done. just no debt and dont live like an idiot. im living off 4% and the worden.
;-)
it's gonna be a long time until January 30, the Fed meeting.
it was disturbing to hear that Fed fool, Fischer, talk about inflation, too.
Barney Frank needs to hold hearings and call every one of the Fed fools to account.
if i buy some BAC i can get 7% but is the dividend safe? after looking at MER, im really scared.
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