A new year begins, so it's time to see how the last year went and review strategies and tactics.
For the calendar year 2007:
Krypto Fund +7.38% [corrected - see post of 1/12/2008]
Alpha Fund +54.0%
Commodities +28.5% [closed midsummer 2007]
Gold helped the Krypto Fund quite a bit, as did the emerging markets and Europe. Real estate hurt. US stocks were middling. The two year compound return for the Krypto Fund is 11.5%, which is a bit better than my 10% target. Some moves I made shifting some TIPs investments [TIPs = Treasury Inflation Protected securities] to stocks were poorly timed. I am still learning how the TIPs act. They really are quite uncorrelated with stocks so are quite a valuable diversification tool. Over time I want to rebuild that position but will wait for better prices.
Big winners in the Alpha Fund were AAPL, RIG, DO, RTP, HDB, HES, NOV, PCU and FCX - those are all 100% gainers. Alpha Fund was hurt by almost all my 2nd half new positions, viz. BAC, C, WB, YRCW. I bought those for where I think the stocks will be in year end 2008, but was obviously to early.
One problem I have is letting a "good idea" wait a good entry. Sometimes I can do it, but other times I get "buck fever". In other words, I preach better than I act often. Emotions are hard to control.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
21 comments:
happy new yr b man!
pretty sure you can get those wings at kfc, down here to. im talking about at a sports bar. at my localing watering hole, ive gotten to know the owner quite well. he told me at 9 bucks, he doesnt barely make a dime on the wings, and he wishes he didnt have to sell them.
on top of oil, the stupidity of the corn based ethanol push has jacked up prices for food. cnbc said barely prices have nearly doubled and beer is going higher. DOH!
seems like the heartland is in recession to, but im not there. michigan is dead, and its spreading, imo. maybe nota ton of inflation there, but no real secular economic growth, is there?
should be fun to post for a bit until i find some new digs. got a couple of potential candidates, one im rather excited about (fingers crossed).
watched the ball drop and dick clark mutter in "happy do yr." he used to live on my street in philly. still looks gud but that stroke waxed him, sad.
I think Ohio is in recession, too.
Not good for the R's this fall.
welp, been taking a look at the candidates and it is no better than 2004. bible thumpers, crooks, adulters, transexuals, a mormon and a muslim. sounds like a great back drop for a sitcom. LOL
$ndx gappa filled up...didn't help the rutty when gap filled a couple days ago...Bunkerman, this is an important week, we need to rally.
mern good to see you back after a stint at Dunder Mifflin....
Bunkerman it seems you and Ken Heebner ran similar portfolios in 2007...well played sir...
does Ken Heebner read this blog ? lolol
frosty how sharp are the claws?
bear claws indeed...not pressing the dakrside here mern, cash is king for me at the moment, this action setting up a snapper, I want to see how we react after another attempt at the upsdie.
Bunkerman...time for a fed rant ahead of the minutes of the last meeting...they are so far behind the curve at this point I don't know that it will matter...oil and gold are getting very crowded as the beefers fight for the lives, how can these guys be so blind?
true, frosty, these inflation mongers like Santelli are really sickening. 2% core and they scream.
Sad, but the Fed fools seem concerned about it. They finally get inflation down to 2% them keep acting worried.
Maybe they think they look smart or something by fighting the last war over again.
I don't think oil goes up much further as demand destruction is happening overseas and here now slowly so as a future inflation problem it will subside for awhile.
Oil stocks still undervalued, so I'm keeping them, but would sell a bit on rip as I have a lot still.
with the $ in a continued death spiral and secular growth in russia, india, china (inflation 11% there) and brazil how does inflation rollover.
lets go over the avg american bills.
food, has gone up a ton thx to bush ethanol push. is that rolling over? no still going higher from my perch.
energy, going higher.
health care, higher
education costs, higher.
utility bill, steady.
internet, phone, cell, and tv. steady.
eating out steady, after big ramp.
homeowners finally rolled over.
housing is deflationary.
it just does not look like ben has a handle on inflation, and there are major secular trends in his face that he cant do much about.
stagger lee baby
claman is packing the heat today. she must be on HGH
watching fox on the big screen. looks like claman got knee shooters in her contract. they look bigger, if possible.
mern you plan to engage in some trading while you are on vacation? might as well, perhaps I can talk you out of working for Schrute bucks and join the VIX party of 2008...it is gonna be fun, beats working bro.
I don't get Fox business - too bad. Babblevision drove me away to Bloomberg.
BLS implied rent will be lower. All electronics is lower. Wages are flat.
from FOMC minutes, many of Fed were in deail about the credit crunch. Some of those statements really are delusional. That board needs some people with worldly experience.
frosty like u say, cash is king!
no stress, no muss
ya b man, same fed that said the crunch wud be halted at the sub prime level.
they know inflation is raging and economic growth a dream, but they can never tell the truth, becuase we cant handle the truth
The Fed complacency is a sign of cushy government jobs ... no accountability ... and Jackson Hole junkets.
Bunkermna...spot on...waiting out the problem is certain death...the trend will be followed as they remain clueless...trends don't change until they are changed and the fed has the power to do so...they must show leadership, strength and conviction...they are just being pushed around at the expense of the common man, what a sin...as for your "buck fever", the fed missed the boat, simple, you were right they were dead wrong.
panics aren't rational - the fed thinks they are. Really stupid of them.
Post a Comment