Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Doing Nothing

I see no reason to do anything here, except wait out Ms. Market's hissy-fit. I plan to buy more BAC after their earnings reports if it's under 40.

I still see nothing inconsistent with the mid-cycle slowdown trajectory. There will be no recession as long as Ben doesn't betray me. The big guns are on my side ... aka the Fed. So on my time horizon of one year, I am very bullish.

I posted my gold tactics in the comments a few days ago. I'll sell about 20% of my large holdings in bits between 920 and 1000. And if silver gets over $18 I'll let 20% of it go, too.

37 comments:

mern said...

id bet they cut before the meeting if we get below 12500 or make a new low on the S&P

but i aint betting

mern said...

do u think BAC will cut thier div?

Bud said...

is this a recession?

mern said...

do TO and hiliary cry easily?

Bud said...

watchin TO cry was great

i hate the f'ckng cowboys and they had been yappin all week ( also all season)

message to all nfl teams : don't mess with eli u gonna be cryin after the game

Bunkerman said...

I use the canonical definition of "recession" - two consecutive declines inh GDP

Bunkerman said...

no, I don't think BAC cut. That would be hard to justify after usng stock to buy CFC.

I don't think C was justified in cutting it, either.

Bunkerman said...

the C dividend cut is hurting that stock today

Bud said...

lmaaaaaaooooooooooooo Bman


aren't you the one that says i need to be ....uh.....'more skeptical' of the government

yet you believe the government statistics on the economy

no recession......too funny

mern said...

how about tony snow on maher friday nite?

he didnt believe what was coming out of his own mouth.

yes watching romo, and TO and all cowboys fans get spanked was sweet!

Frosty said...

Bud...suck it trebek.

mern said...

watching espn. glad to see congress has there agenda in order.

steroid in baseball #1

ban gay marriage #2

make creationism mandatory for schools #3

balance the budget #816

find bin laden #817

avoid civil war in iraq #818

try to make sure a middle class persists within our borders #819

mern said...

kass buying C. rut oh!

mern said...

that 6.7% yield on BAC looks enticing

Bud said...

good to see frosty


perhaps i was a bit too rough with him yesterday

i thought he could handle it

but i was right.....he's a pussy

i apologise frosty......i'll be nice and gentle with you from now on

Frosty said...

yes Bud, you hurt my feelings...apology accepted.

Bunkerman said...

I guess I have to use a simple analogy to help you understand, Bud ... again.

The Q of whether we are, or will be in a recession is like a horse race. Yuo have to run the race and wait for the finish to see the decision.

The blabbing of touts doesn't affect the outcome. I await the outcome, namely the official numbers.

My big bets are on "no recession" - this is a midcycle slowdownm caused by Fed tight money, and since that is being relieved - I think - there will be no reccesion.

Frosty said...

QQQQ anyone have a feel for the friday strike?...48 touched yesterday, we see 46 wed and pin it 47 friday...don't know max pain, but that would certainly hurt those gaming the tape this week.

Bud said...

uh.......i thought this was all beefer ping-pong, watering hole, pirhana's, downtick rule....etc....


seems like you've admitted that was nonsense

Bud said...

frsoty doesn't know what max pain is?

i'm pretty sure he felt some 'max pain' saturday evening


7 consecutive touchdowns....lmaooooooooooooo

Bud said...

ooops.....the 'kindler gentler' Bud sure didn't last long


sorry frosty

mern said...

ya no way i believe the govt data.

were the WMD's in iraq? Nope

does our president abuse cocaine? yep

does the BLS make up a bunch of bs, so they can keep psychology up and inflation down? YEP!

i think ill believe what C is saying about the consumer over the BLS.

middle america is drowning in debt, but no is one is to blame but the people in the mirror.

let em die!

Bud said...

i think mern and i should move to ohio

Bman says there is no inflation there

wings and pizza

lmaoooooooooooooooo

mern said...

i lived in ohio for 4 glorious yrs. nothing to do in dayton except bongs and beers.

now its a bible thumping U. so sad!

i hate religion!

Frosty said...

With a will to do or die

RAH! RAH! RAH!

Loyal sons forever true,

And we will fight the battle through.

Bunkerman said...

It ain't over till it's over.

uh ... why are some increasing consumber losses not expected in a "slowdown" ?

This market is like deja vu all over again. August, Fall and now Jan.

Yogi Berra rules.

Bud said...

Fall? Summer? sheeeesh Bman

i'm only interested where market is next 2 weeks


obviously we tradin on different time frames

i know i know i know...... i'm a beefer and you are a 'real buyer'

mern said...

triple bottom looks to be breaking.

what is the old saying? the more times u test support, the less likley the support level holds?

i do like seeing some real creative destruction.

maybe another 1k on the dow, and ill do some nibbling

Spin-em said...

Fighting soldiers from the sky
Fearless men who jump and die
Men who mean just what they say
The brave men of the Green Beret

Silver wings upon their chest
These are men, America's best
One hundred men will test today
But only three win the Green Beret

Trained to live off nature's land
Trained in combat, hand-to-hand
Men who fight by night and day
Courage peak from the Green Berets

Silver wings upon their chest
These are men, America's best
One hundred men will test today
But only three win the Green Beret

Back at home a young wife waits
Her Green Beret has met his fate
He has died for those oppressed
Leaving her his last request

Put silver wings on my son's chest
Make him one of America's best
He'll be a man they'll test one day
Have him win the Green Beret.

mern said...

Sunday March 9th

Phil Lesh & Friends
Ani DiFranco - Gov't Mule - Keller Williams - funky Meters - The National - of Montreal - Minus the Bear - Martin Sexton - Grace Potter & the Nocturnals - Blind Melon - Ryan Shaw - Felice Brothers - Shout Out Louds - Josh Ritter - the Lee Boys - Will Hoge - Steel Train - Pete Francis - Balkan Beat Box - Jonah Smith

what u say bud? alligator alley 3/9/08.

cindy is in.

Frosty said...

Spinny...if the IOWA STATE fight song can't save the tape, I doubt the Duke has the stones either :)

Spin-em said...

Pick a service, pick a challenge, set yourself apart. Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines; what a great place! It's a great place... to start.

Spin-em said...

O Captain! my Captain! our fearful trip is done;
The ship has weather’d every rack, the prize we sought is won;
The port is near, the bells I hear, the people all exulting,
While follow eyes the steady keel, the vessel grim and daring:


But O heart! heart! heart!
O the bleeding drops of red,
Where on the deck my Captain lies,
Fallen cold and dead.


O Captain! my Captain! rise up and hear the bells;
Rise up—for you the flag is flung—for you the bugle trills;
For you bouquets and ribbon’d wreaths—for you the shores a-crowding;
For you they call, the swaying mass, their eager faces turning;
Here Captain! dear father!
This arm beneath your head;
It is some dream that on the deck,
You’ve fallen cold and dead.


My Captain does not answer, his lips are pale and still;
My father does not feel my arm, he has no pulse nor will;
The ship is anchor’d safe and sound, its voyage closed and done;
From fearful trip, the victor ship, comes in with object won;
Exult, O shores, and ring, O bells!
But I, with mournful tread,
Walk the deck my Captain lies,
Fallen cold and dead.

mern said...

be careful with da shorts. the fed cud unleash the hounds at any minute. if they dont, 1380 is clearly the line in the sand, and we r gapping below it.

900 more dow pts, im a buyer.

what is amazing to this idiot, is i am idiot but saw the housing bubble in 2004. yet C, CFC, JPM, MER etc just were leveraged to the hilt here beyond 2006.

unfortunately this idiot only sees creative destruction as the cure. ie millions lose thier homes. ie many credit card companys write off a lot of debt. repoping autos will become huge, maybe i shud buy a tow truck?

lol

TGT gonna lose a lot of share to WMT as is publix, krogers, etc.

bud r u voting yes on #1. thats christs big plan to reduce property taxes. the commercials make it look like a lay up. dig a bit, and u find the commercial is total bs. VOTE NO ON #1!!!!!!!!!!

do u rent or own that pos?

;-)

mern said...

volcker is spot on, imo

mern said...

LMAO jjc interview queen l. she cud toss him

Bunkerman said...

CPI was OK. Put qa new post up, too.

Hmmm what is the Iowa State fight song ?