Strangeness is a property of quarks, a fundamental particle, which combine to make up protons, neutrons and mesons which in turn combine to build the nuclei of atoms.
Strangeness also seems to be an emerging property of today's "rational" and "efficient" markets, through the reaction of stocks to news. CSCO says that next quarter's sales will grow 10%, gross margins will stay around 65%, and 60% of its business is now outside the US. Not bad, an "OK" report. Before earnings, CSCO stock price was down to 23 from a high of about 34 in October. So that's a drop of 32% that the "efficient" market has built into its "rational" expectations of future earnings. Since 10% revenue growth for the next quarter would be an odd "recession" - more like a mild slowdown - one would think the stock would pop up. Nahhhh ! The beefers hit it and the stock traded down 7% to the 21 area.
So the quantum property "strangeness" has emerged in stocks and their behavior to events and news. Fascinating ... mirabile dictu ! New phenomena appearing before our eyes ! What a wondrous time to be living !
Ok, that's enough sardonic commentary. Ms. Market is still in a bad mood, seeing every bit of news as somehow bad. It's no time to be a hero. Just be patient and buy high quality stocks on inevitable dips. And do not buy a stock before its earnings report.
PS: this morning's unemployment claims reports will be important. As will the Bank of England and ECB interest rate decisions.
PPS: I see gold is over $900 ... good, as I will sell another slug of my gold and use the money to buy stocks. This is a reallocation trade in my Krypto Fund, where gold is still very overweight.
Word of the Day - "sardonic" -adj. [$10]
"Sardonic" means "scornfully derisive" or "disdainfully or skeptically humorous: derisively mocking". This word is somewhat difficult to distinguish from sarcastic, which is an adjective derived from the noun, sarcasm, meaning "the use of bitter or wounding, eps. ironic, remarks". Some dictionaries give "sarcastic" as a synonym for "sardonic".
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85 comments:
still just a midcycle slowdwon ... in reality ... but not in perception.
Jobless claims 356K - middling.
Retail sales mixed - some ok, some weak, some poor.
JCPenny guides up ... d'uh ?
too early on AAPL add ... as usual.
next add point is 62% retracement at about 107 - that will be a double add if it gets ther.
the BLS has to be allowed to approve the big boys #'s (like WMT and CSCO), that way they cud massage them the way they do inflation and employment.
is that a sardonic?
was watching family guy last nite, and saw a classic
Peter: Hey hey I got an idea. Lets play "I Never." You got to drink if you did the thing that the person says they never did.
Cleveland: Oh I got one, I never slept with a women with the lights on.
(They all drink.)
Joe: I'll go next, uh I never had sex with Cleveland's wife.
(Quagmire and Cleveland drink.)
Peter: alright lets see uh, I never did a chick in a Logan airport bathroom.
(Only Quagmire drinks.)
****About 33 drinks later****
Peter: God lets see what else is there um...I never gave a reach-around to a spider monkey while reciting the Pledge of Alligence.
Quagmire: Oh God.
(Quagmire takes a drink.)
Joe: I uh I never picked up an illegal alien at Home Depot to take home a choke me while I touch myself.
Quagmire: Oh come on!
(Quagmire drinks again.)
Peter: I never did the same thing except with someone from Joann Fabrics.
Quagmire: Oh God this is ridiculous. You guys suck! (Drinks more and passes out.)
ROFL!
yes, mern, that's sardonic.
Bunkerman...so we put in the hihger low...what is your read of the tea leafs...and keep the leafs away from Mern, he might smoke them :)
great job frosty on ag-chems
he's one smart janitor
"people still eat during a recession"
ag stocks pounded
lmaoooooooooooooooooo
I'd guess a base forms around 1400 range and holds until something good happens to scare the enormous bear beefer community into thinking they will underperform unless getting long and start to look ahead to coming out of the slowdown.
B man I know you have owned the XHB or homebuilder etf in the past...I also know you have exposure to real estate in REITS...any thoughts of upping your exposure there....would Swensen agree with that strategy?
frosty why do you waste your time with DBA? when the TNH MON POT BG etc.......get slaughtered
long live the efficient market!!!!
CME down 100....now up 40
beefers rock!!!!!!
chambo saying jan was the month, where things turned bad. thinx it last 2 to 4 qrts.
nazz back in bear market territory
Bud to what recession are you referring to?
im curious where hildog got the 5 mil to "loan" to her campaign.
she has been in politics her whole except when she was a young mother.
where did she get all that bank?
oh i forgot she had the futures account that never ever had 1 loss. all profits. nah she aint a crook! or the best trader ever?
come on mfl, this is a soft landing.
just ask some homeowners who have arms that havent readjusted yet. they cant even pay the mortgage at 3%, at least those who can not r moving higher quickly.
ECB still worried about stagflation becuase the CPI is 3.2% there.
lol
"95% of American pay their mortgages"...Jim Cramer...Denny Kneale
lmaooooooooooooooooo
i luv Bman's terms for this recession
"midcycle slowdown"
"rich man's panic"
loooooooooooooool
PS....perhaps he shud change his name to Oman.....uh.....Ostrich-man
uh Bud, pounding the darkside table since last friday...speaking of which, I have lighted way up...will maintian some ag shorts, but time to raise some cash and help the comman man hold the line.
My RE exposure is about right, as of now, very close to 20%. They rallied recently. I remember that they were close to the add point, but never quite got there ... or maybe stocks came down to them
I really just stick to the numbers in my Krypto Fund. It seems like whenever I change an allocation, I am wrong and cost myself money.
mern, hildog got big $ payoff on her silly books.
I still think I'm right about this economy, Bud, but am no doubt worried the Fed's action in August, Nov and Dec. let negative momentum rise too much.
that's the problem with the guys in denial
it's not the Fed!
banks made loans that will never get paid back.....i don't care if interest rates go to zero
banks need to writeoff a few hundred billion more to clean up their balance sheets
that will take time
PS.....doesn't mean the stock market won't go up......there are zillions of trading opportunities everyday
but.....the Bush recession is in turbo mode and the common man is hurting big-time
I think most/all of those remaining "losses" on loans are in managed fixed income accounts of pension funds. They will hold to maturity and let the actual defaults happen, if they do.
Banks never held the bulk of that paper - they placed it.
There is quite good demand for old style corproate loans - this I know from my old partner who places those.
So this doomsaying is missing a lot of reality.
im aware of hildogs situation.
but i love bringing up the futures account whenever possible.
well she is pretty much done.
she can not take down both obama and mccain.
maybe obama, but i doubt even that.
how r corp bond spreads holding against the treasury curve?
that is probably the best way to determine if risk taking and liquidity r truely rebounding, imo
don't know - haven't followed it.
Spreads always lag Treasury rallies by a few months anyway, to levels won't mean much until Spring.
even after all these years...rep,dems think they're still right...divided.. the world kicks our ass............We need a 1980 DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES? moment....brought us all together...Im just sayin..lol
LMAOOOOOOOOOO...group hug.
that nonsense not going to save your boy Clemens spinny....evidence is coming....
lmaoooooo "workout warrior".....
20% body fat
he squats 135 lbs....wow...how impressive....pffttt
Who cares what roger did..just throw strikes...thats what people wanted from him......
nonsense...LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
$25 million to go 6-6...pfftttt
what a liar and a fraud....
Mets win 110 games easily this year...fact...
they still wont take the division
its the phillies yr, i can feel it!
uh....i agree with spin
who cares what roger did? or bonds? baseball is purely for entertainment purposes......congressional hearings.......gimme a fucking break
PS...and i hate roger clemens.....but i could care less if he or any other ball player was juiced
no need to get all sardonic on my ass..buncha esigites!!(sp)..LMAOOO
millions and millions of poor americans gettin tattooed in the Bush recession.....they don't have health inurance and are about to get foreclosed
and congress is investigating steroids and spy-gate......what??????
"we're doin it for the kids" looooooooool
congress is so disgusting
pelosi better watch out or she gonna lose the house for the dems
sheesh a guy leaves the tank and all the sudden he has a target on his back....
Rev must be brainwashing you guys.....lmaoooooooooooo
Just bought a lot of stocks - US, Europe, Pacific, Emerging markets in Krypto Fund to bring all my more %'s in line.
Still need to sell a lot of gold - will buy more stocks with it, including REITS - I am a bit low there, just re-checked.
This market is stupidly low.
This means a new drop-off is coming :-((
if rog goes to jail, boy is he retarded.
after watching vick, martha, barry and marion jones goto jail, it fairly obvious. DO NOT LIE TO THE FEDS!
at least big mac was smart enuff to stay out of jail.
this is one interesting story. y wud mac keep the blood and syringes for 8 years? at the time that stuff was not even illegal to take.
the more i read about HGH, the more id like to try it. im really, besides death and or cancer, what is the risk?
looked at h ledgers autopsy. he was on enuff meds to kill a horse. and it was all legal!
sure keep pot illegal, it is obviously much worse for your boby than ambien or oxys or xanax or whatever the hell he had in his system.
now ill excuse myself. i have to pop my valium, lexapro and blood pressure meds. wash it down with a 12 pack and 37 bong hits. some how i wake up fresh as a daisy every morning. the difference between heath and myself is practice.
this is a marathon, not a sprint. it takes years of dedication to drug dependence to build my kind of tolerance to abuse my liver!
rofl!
lol mfl ... leaving the tank is a sign of genius .. a badge of honor ... return to reality ;-)
Like leaving a cult - a sign of sanity ;-)
i agree bud what is dc doing focused on juice and spygate?????????????????????
arlen specter makes me sick...........unless the iggles get a ring for 2005 super bowl. then it was worth wasting millions of taxpayers dollars!
i can see mcnabb and TO hugging in front of the linc. and ill be there, if it goes down.
tank shud be down to 30, 40 freaks soon.
i think they said at the 02 bottom the # got down to 20 something.
i wonder if rev stunk it up has bad back then as he has been since he started managing OPM?
bud how many members left in that pit?
hal still there? i wud bet he is gone by now.
well the yield curve is getting steeper. that helps out the fins.
that was probably the bottom, back on jan 22nd.
we been talking about subprime for a yr, it shud just about be fully discounted, no?
bud u like 200% short?
I can hear Larry now the McCain rally
hi guys, been reading your posts for a while, finally took the time to join
Romney dropping out - just not the year for a business man. Too bad - he was very smart & honest.
welcome mikey.
Romney...done...that is too bad...I was looking forward to taking on a couple more wifes.
back in an hour - had to deliver some gold I just sold.
thanks bunkerman
imo, 1 wife more than enuff!
romney honest, lol. "i can get michigan thier jobs back"
dude, if hukabee makes a push now, this country sux!
ill take hildog over huk.
Mern...it goes without saying that you can't handle more than one womwan...your no Spin-em :)
is Huckabee in the mix for VP on Mccain's ticket?
in many ways.
i like naps
Uh MLF59...please hold your questions...bunky fired up the half track, machine guns mounted, off to sell gold...he was last seen in the MCD dirve up window.
this is pretty funny
http://youtube.com/watch?v=OJtgEfIla0A
WMS blue skies
4th GLD trip..thats about 39.9K for bunk...loool
Bunkerman must have gone out and woken up the real buyers after selling some gold...
another frosty fave bites the dust
"mitt's the man"
frosty's specialty is backin losers
"consecutive playoff appearances"
lmaoooooooooooooooooooo
BBBBAAAAAAHHHHHHH
bud u have been real quiet on the hildog front.
is she done?
lol bud
change
that was pretty gud.
just proves the whole process is a bunch of bs
back safely - no pirates ... hehe, was ready for them. Sheesh, I did my Krypto Fund allocations and really gotta sell a lot more gold.
Beefers really playing a nutty game of ping pong today
mern i'm just gonna keep quiet
i just let all you guys and the media and the pundits keep tellin me she's "done"
the more Hillary gets bashed.....the better i like it
music to my ears
what is Oman's fascination with AAPL?
i would play hit and run with AAPL
ipods and iphones were cool new hip products that everyone wanted
Mac is just a different way of loggin on......i don't see the growth
trade it and flip it like a beefer
the growth rates on APPL are finished
the polls in California had Barack almost even with Hillary day before election
oops .....she won by 16 points
as long as you guys keep makin funeral arrangements for Hillary......i'm in good shape
Bud, Hillary got big majorities in the absentee vote in CA that were sent in early - that's the poll discrepancy.
Hmmm AAPL ... it's the Mac growth into the huge Windows dominance that makes them money.
Since Macs don't have the virus + firewall bs adn are a lot easier to use adn run MS Office, now, lots o fiPhone & iPod users are buying them instead of new Windows computers. Vista sucks.
I figure eventually Macs get 25% market share, about 3x over where they are now. So AAPL probably goes to 500 in a few years.
come on bud, did u think she wud be tied at this point?
she is clearly losing da mo.
campaign workers working for free. she is "lending" money to herself. lol
i wonder what the vig is on the loan, probably 25%.
ipod, walkmen, what is the difference? they r fads. in a few yrs it will be something else, but jobs may invent that something else. gates was a one trick wonder and if memory serves he basically paid 50k for the software code that launched thier operating software. jobs has been a real innovator. the fact he is a crook and back a gud bit of options is mute becuase the company is better off with him than without. whatever.
spin mite be headed to the valley for a week. detoxing in pittson and seeing my cuz.
said pittson has had like 20 some break ins the last few days. heroin junkies looking for some money.
if i come up we shud get together. what yr is up there, so i know what to wear. people wearing parachute pants yet, or is disco still in?
;-)
Oman.....i can get a pc for a few hundred bux
computers are a commodity.....i don't see it for apple
PS.....new bull markets usually have 'new' leaders.....AAPL was last years leader....old news
i'm lookin for the next apple
i can see your statue of coughlin
even if u found the next aapl, u wud flip it for 3 beans. and then wait for the pullback that never comes.
computers are close to a commodity, but people's time isn't. So they will choose Macs for ease of use.
I use both a Mac and a Vista - no comparison. Everyone I know who tries a Mac or sees one used, switches on there next purchase.
angelo mozillo about to finish his round today in pebble beach pro-am
his putter was on fire
lmaoooo is he really playing? no way...
yup.....his partner is steve pate
he really has some nerve....i would lay low if i was him......he has about 500m in the bank....he can play pebble beach whenever he wants too...why this week?
http://www.attpbgolf.com/documents/2008_ATT_Pebble_Beach_Pro-Am_Pairings.pdf
that is comical....lmaooooooooooo
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