Monday, February 18, 2008

Delusions

I finished two books over the weekend that both showed how crucial government policies can be influenced by delusions of the makers that have no factual basis. The books were "Lincoln and the Northern Response to Secession" and "Armed Truce: The Beginnings of the Cold War 1945-1946".

Civil War Delusion
The first book clearly shows the leaders of the North in both parties - Lincoln, Seward, Douglas, etc. - believed that there was a "silent majority" of the people of the south (more in the border states and less in the Deep South) who believed in the Union. So for the five month period from Lincoln's election in early November 1860 to early April, 1861, all these people strove to find a formula for appease the South, temporize and calm the seccession movement, which they thought would/might defuse the rebellion and over time restore the Union. But the book also shows that the leaders in the North really had an amazing ignorance of the opinions of the southern people. There was no "silent majority" for Union - that was a self-rationalized delusion. Finally in late March 1861, Lincoln sent trusted private emissaries to visit the South - they returned to tell him that not a shred of Unionist sentiment existed there. And he personally met with border state representatives who flatly told him that nothing less than total Northern acquiescence to every aspect of secession would "prevent" the further secession of the lower tier of the border states, viz. North Carolina, Virginia, etc. So Lincoln finally made a decision, stopped all appeasement and announced the mere resupply of Fort Sumter's food. South Carolina immediately attacked the fort as the initial violent event of the rebellion and ensuing Civil War.

Cold War Delusion
The book "Armed Truce" shows the leaders of the US government had an astonishing - colossal - ignorance of Stalin's Soviet Union. On February 9, 1946, Stalin made a speech to 4,000 top Communist party, military and government officials announcing a return to prewar collectivism and continued hostility to the west. The context was an "election" campaign for the Supreme Soviet. Here is a comment by a high British official echoed by Truman: "certain allowances must be made for election speeches, even in Russia." In France, Le Monde referred to the Stalin's speech as a "great electoral" one. Other western leaders thought that "the Russians do in fact intend cooperation with the West". In response to Churchill's famous "Iron Curtain" speech on March 5, 1946, Trygie Lie, the first UN Secretary General said that he "played into the hands of 'anti-Western elements' in Moscow".

I could give innumerable examples of the delusions of US and other western leaders and opinion makers about the nature of government and goals in Stalin's Soviet Union. The aforementioned book is chock full of precise, cited quotations.

The west was quite confused for years in many crucial decisions in dealing with the Soviet Union since many of its deeds mismatched and contradicted the delusion and its words. Not until the famous "Long Telegram" of George Kennan and Churchhill's "Iron Curtain" speech did the delusional fog finally begin to clear. Events aiding this were the capture of Soviet spies in Canada that showed aggressive Soviet spying and theft of secrets from its WW II allies.

Here is the crucial quote from the "Long Telegram" of late February 1946 -
"Belief that Soviet 'suspicions' are of such a character, that they can be altered or assuaged by personal contacts, rational arguments or official assurances, reflect a serious misunderstanding about Soviet realities and constitutes ... the most insideous and dangerous single error which Americans can make in their thinking about this country"

After the "Long Telegram" and Churchill's speech and innumerable examples of Soviet agression - the latest being its sending Russian troops and tanks into Persia in spite of a treaty to remove all troops by March 2, 1946, the US government finally had its own delusional fog removed and the policy of containment began that over the ensusing 45 years led to the downfall of the Soviet Leninist state.

Now
Obviously the current era has examples of delusions of governmental leaders. We now know that the current Iraq war was begun based on a form of delusion and illusion - about and created by Saddam Hussein. I'll write about that later.

Word of the Day
"Insideous" - adj. [$10]
"Insideous" means 1. working or spread harmfully in a stealthy or subtle manner; 2. designed to entrap: treacherous; 3. beguiling but harmful: seductive.
Sentence: see above quotation from the "Long Telegram"

18 comments:

mern said...

wow i knew the word of the day already! first time for everything. ya hussein wanted us to think he had WMD's at the same time the silence from powell since he resigned is deafening.

bush probably knew more than anyone there were no WMD's in iraq, and now the taliban is basically running afghanistan again. we shud have stuck to that country and made some glass by now.

reading hildog has chelsea and slick willy calling the superdelegates 24/7. what a shame it will be when she loses the popular vote and still might get the nod. all these first time voters will quickly be showed one man does not equal one vote.

watched maher this weekend. surprised bud stopped watching him. u know that is an all left audience. someone asked who wants obama, a huge roar. who wants hildog? not many clapped. no one clapped for mccain, and 1 guy shouted something like "praise the lord" when asked to cheer for huck.

maher pointed out in 2000, george #1 started to speak for his son, but it didnt work, so he vanished like a virgin on prom nite. the clintons reaction to slick willys stupidity is to roll him out more and more. and now sending chelsea too. and these r the people who made such a big deal about gore winning the popular vote, and not winning the whole thing. so now, that the superdelegates r her only hope, she is counting on that, and not the popular count?

what two faced liars they r!

i dont know bman, i had the chance of the pats being stripped of thier 3 super bowl wins at 5% last week. today id say its 10%. the snowball is rolling down hill, gaining mo, and goodell is looking like he mite join marion jones, bonds, rocket, in the can. goodell seems extra slimmy at this point. especially with respect to the paralyzed bouncer from pac mans incident.

posada believe rocket, but didnt watch the show, or read andy depo?

i was looking at pics of rocket in the mid 80's vs today. like bonds, for some odd reason, his head is clearly larger than in his 20's. HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN?

rog going to jail in 2010, u watch!
dubya can pardon if he dont get indicted until next yr, right?

mern said...

cant pardon
excuse me

lol

mern said...

http://philzone.routeflap.net/

having tons of fun with this site.

some tasty shows here. getting them loaded and then burnt onto disc is not easy.

the cds ive burned, were shows i was at, like the tower in philly 2003. ALL I CAN IS WOW! I WAS THERE!

again suggesting the movie "droaning mona" not considered a comedy, but i dont know y? devito, casey affeleck, neve campbel, jamie lee curtis, bette midler r all hilarious.

there is even a julie andrews reference by devito, apparently he loves the sound of music as well.

highley reccomend!

Bunkerman said...

W can pardon him now before any indictment. Ford pardoned Nixon before any.

The pardon just wipes everything out. No need to wait for an indictment.

mern said...

that is total and complete BS!

frosty was right, again.

bastard!

so he will pardon rocket but not bonds, what a joke!

wonder if he pardons goodell too? it really dont look gud from goodell. he fined bill, a lot of money, took away thier 2nd pick in upcoming draft, y thier first one no idea. he did before even viewing any evidence and before he cud really look at it, he add everything torched. this story is gonna gain mo.

hey if arlen specter can write the magic bullet theory, y not rewrite 3 super bowls???

mern said...

what is the deal with somaney?

i had to disconnect from his site when i joined the rogue firm in july.

he kept dining my card, and was doing it twice a month. i had to dispute all the charges, and was reimbursed.

i had a three way call with him and chase, and he said it was over, but sure enuff he doubled dinged oct, nov, dec, and jan.

i finally just cancelled the chase card and had a new one issued.

makes me glad i didnt do anything on the indian real estate thing.

i didnt even notice he was double dinging me. i looked back he owes me like a grand, but im not gonna even bother contacting him.

now he writes for RM, again, after lamb basting cramer , willard and revy to no end on his site.

pretty slimmy if u ask me

Bunkerman said...

I was an annual sub on Jay's site, but that ran out in Dec. He didn't charge me for a new year. I stopped using it some time in 2007 maybe spring.

hehe, I can understand wanting a forum to put one's thoughts out, but RM - ugh !

Bunkerman said...

I doubt if W pardons any of them. Why get involved ?

mern said...

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The official inflation rate has been nothing but a fantasy he claims!

I’m talking about real world inflation—so-called “headline” inflation—which factors in food and energy and currently runs about 8% - 10%.

Stealth inflation is very real, and it’s literally robbing investors blind because Uncle Sam refuses to acknowledge it. You can’t blame them however. It saves them billions of dollars a year!

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mern said...

thoughts?

mern said...

clemens is his boy.

he is already gonna go down as the worst prez ever.

what does he care if he pisses off a few more million people?

mern said...

i tend to agree, as u know, that the CPI is one big lie

Bunkerman said...

LBJ was worse than W - he got 50,000 good men killed and was a fool.

Bunkerman said...

My thoughts are that for 2000 years, apocalytic bears have made good money pitching crap that has been wrong for ... 2000 years.

:-))))

The world is fine and doing great !

Best in my lifetime - parents won WW II, we won cold war - didn't get nuked by fools; people are free in eastern Europe, getting free-er in China, India reforms ... etc. on and on. All good.

I'm having a martini tonight, too !!!

Bunkerman said...

I remember studying how the CPI is computed in detail - it's not that bad. To some extent it theoretically overstates inflation as people tend to substitue lower priced equivalents. But some quality adjsutments are iffy.

Overall I think it's close to right, unless someone is really dumb and won't pick cheap new items with same quality that cost less. Lots of the dumb probably see 10% inflation, but that's not rational behavior.

mern said...

well i havent bought new clothes this decade. i still drive my 95 benz with 4 cylinders, and i pay very very close attention to my bills.

maybe its just a florida thing, but 10% seems about right. through 2007.

now that homeowners plunged so much the my cpi will be negative.

but food prices r still going higher. health care, higher. education higher. luckily cindy has got the gud health care and hopefully BSC hooks me up this week. education for college, not on my mind, although there may be a little mern in the oven.

bad communication breakdown between the worden and myself.

note to wives. tell your hubby when u stop taking da pill!

i can feel it, she is knocked up!

WTF was she thinking? first she got back on the pill without telling me. then see told me months later, then she stopped for a month out of lazyness.

she is mad at me. im mad at her, but if the bun is there, we have it and move on.

ill be 37 on sunday. so i know my life pretty well. this was destined to happen. i just attract insanity.

D'OH!

it better be a boy or i will be acting like scott baio after he found out he is having a girl.

ill have a chasisty belt on her by age 9!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

No need to be mad - be happy if you are blessed !

You need to have those kids while you're young and have energy left.

Bunkerman said...

Imho you see the geezer effect - lots of money and no one producing breed inflation.

plus the effects of second home-itis.