Monday, February 25, 2008

Monday Morning Ramblings

Nikkei was up 3% purportedly on news the China soverrign wealth fund will invest $10 bilion in Japanese stocks.

Ambac bailout moving ahead.

European stocks are up solidly. Qatar rumored to ivest in RBS.

US Monetary Base is up only 1.4% year over year; that's way to small for an economy grwoing at over 2%. Even M1 down year over year. The Fed was way too tight last year and really needs to continue pushing money into the financial system.

Serbs are angry with US over Kosovo independence. Huh ? That's an EU initiative, why are they mad at the US ? Maybe since US is backing Europe on it. Why is the US involved at all ? Sheesh ... US State Department is meddling everywhere.

Why is the US still sticking its nose into the business and affairs of the world ? The Cold War is over - US won that in 1989-1990. There is no risk of Communist/Leninist/Stalinist/Soviet expansion anymore. So let's just let the world alone and mind our own business. Maybe the DC and NYC rich & powerful are using their influence in or control of the US government to further their world domination and their accumulation of power. That's the Davos clique. Certainly when their corporations have issues in other nations, they seem to be able to acquire US government support and aid. Hence the US meddles everywhere and then their people - the common man - in those places end up being annoyed with the US. All the while, the US common man knows nothing since the US press doesn't cover most world events or news. He just wants to eat his pork chop, kiss his wife & kids and give his dog a pat. And when the rich & powerful create a mess in the future, the common man will get taxed and / or a soldier volunteer from the hills in SE Ohio will get killed. Grrrr.

Live & let live. Freedom is a two way street. Let's stop medding everywhere.

Words of the Day - some R's today ;-)
"Redound" - verb, intransitive [$10]
"Redound" means 1. to have an effect; 2. to return, recoil; 3. to contribute, accrue. An older [1970s] definition on my word card is "to lead to a usually unplanned end as if by an inevitable flow of consequenses'.
Sentence - Persistent US meddling in the internal affairs of other nations and regions redounds to increased resentment and even hostility to American values of freedom and human rights by providing potential dictators a foreign opponent for their demagogery.

"Recondite" - adj [$10]
"Recondite" means 1. hidden from sight, concealed; 2. incomprehensible to one of ordinary understanding or knowledge; deep; 3. of relating to, or dealing with something little known or obscure.
Sentence: Recondite US State Department meddlling in other nations' affair on behalf of powerful US corporations might be hurting US leadership for increasing human freedom.

"Redolent" - adj $10]
"Redolent" means exuding fragrance, aromatic.
Sentence: Hillary's campaign is redolent with rotten stench as it grasps for anything to survive a little longer.

35 comments:

mern said...

got some gud juice for u today bman

here u go

mern said...

Are the world's ice caps melting because of climate change, or are the reports just a lot of scare mongering by the advocates of the global warming theory?

Scare mongering appears to be the case, according to reports from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that reveal that almost all the allegedly “lost” ice has come back. A NOAA report shows that ice levels which had shrunk from 5 million square miles in January 2007 to just 1.5 million square miles in October, are almost back to their original levels.

moreover, a Feb. 18 report in the London Daily Express showed that there is nearly a third more ice in Antarctica than usual, challenging the global warming crusaders and buttressing arguments of skeptics who deny that the world is undergoing global warming.

The Daily express recalls the photograph of polar bears clinging on to a melting iceberg which has been widely hailed as proof of the need to fight climate change and has been used by former Vice President Al Gore during his "Inconvenient Truth" lectures about mankind’s alleged impact on the global climate.

Gore fails to mention that the photograph was taken in the month of August when melting is normal. Or that the polar bear population has soared in recent years.

As winter roars in across the Northern Hemisphere, Mother Nature seems to have joined the ranks of the skeptics.

As the Express notes, scientists are saying the northern Hemisphere has endured its coldest winter in decades, adding that snow cover across the area is at its greatest since 1966. The newspaper cites the one exception — Western Europe, which had, until the weekend when temperatures plunged to as low as -10 C in some places, been basking in unseasonably warm weather.

Around the world, vast areas have been buried under some of the heaviest snowfalls in decades. Central and southern China, the United States, and Canada were hit hard by snowstorms. In China, snowfall was so heavy that over 100,000 houses collapsed under the weight of snow.

Jerusalem, Damascus, Amman, and northern Saudi Arabia report the heaviest falls in years and below-zero temperatures. In Afghanistan, snow and freezing weather killed 120 people. Even Baghdad had a snowstorm, the first in the memory of most residents.

mern said...

Bond guru Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pimco, predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further — but not by much.

Already the Fed has pushed the federal funds rate down 225 basis points to 3 percent since October.

"I suggest they’re going to less than 3 percent: Basically, the forward curve is already there,” Gross told Bloomberg in an interview.

"But the Fed will have problems this time in going to 1 percent. It’s not that they can’t do it. But there’s a roadblock.”

Story continues below . . .





"There’s inflation, a weak dollar, and up until this point, 225 basis points of easing has produced very little in reinvigorating lower yields in the credit markets.”

Gross said, "The Fed has to see whether the trade-off between inflation and ultimate progress in the credit markets is viable.”

But even if the Fed only cuts the federal funds rate to 2 percent, it has other means to stimulate the economy and credit markets, Gross says.

"There are new tools. The Fed has initiated an auction facility that has provided $50 billion to banks and other financial intermediaries. That’s a small step.”

Gross finds it "shocking” that since the Fed started acting to revive the credit markets in September, the rate on a Fannie Mae conventional 30-year mortgage has failed to drop from 5.80 percent.

"Obviously, it hasn’t lowered the yields they wanted to lower,” Gross says.

"There needs to be something from a fiscal standpoint, whether it’s the Federal Home Loan Bank or the FHA to inject funds and confidence into the housing market itself, because it’s now in shambles,” he says.

Editor’s Note: Why the Fed Interest Rate Cuts Won’t Work

The principal effects of the credit market crisis on average Americans will be that access to credit will be more difficult and that credit which is available will be more expensive, Gross says.

In addition, taxpayers could end up paying for losses in the financial system. "There’s opposition in the Bush administration to admitting that,” Gross says.

"But Paulson and others already are moving in that direction, certainly in housing. Losses in the private markets will be substantial. In the subprime area alone it will be $300 billion to $400 billion. The estimated total for all credit markets is $500 billion to $750 billion.

"Those losses will be taken by the banking industry, but also mutual funds and hedge funds — any investors who were stretching for yield.”

Gross says the government will need to boost spending to buoy demand, thereby expanding the budget deficit to the $600 billion to $800 billion range from $163 billion last year.

"The fiscal stimulus we’re seeing now is the tip of the iceberg,” Gross says.

"The immediate problem is consumer demand. That will probably continue to be the problem for several years. If the consumer has to pay a higher rate for credit and is shut out for availability of credit, an entity has to come in to fill the gap.

"The government is the one that has historically filled the gap, providing the demand necessary to stabilize the economy.”

The result, Gross says: "Deficits of 3 percent to 5 percent of GDP will be standard in the next administration.”

To be sure, Gross isn’t all doom and gloom. Investment opportunities abound, in his view. "A lot of areas of the credit market are opening up,” he said.

"There is a lot of fear and a lack of information. Investment bankers are stepping aside, refusing to take positions to buy very attractive assets.”

"In the last day or two, SBA government-guaranteed loans are trading at LIBOR plus 125 basis points, which means 6 percent, rather than the standard 3.85 to 4 percent in the Treasury market.”

mern said...

Congress intends the forthcoming tax rebates to stimulate the economy, but a new study reveals that more than six of 10 surveyed say they will use the money to pay bills or park it in a savings account.

The survey — conducted by Zogby International for TransUnion’s TrueCredit.com —polled 3,036 adults, adding slight weights to answers for regional, political, racial, religious, gender and age differences to more accurately reflect the population.

A sampling of the pollster’s online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the U.S., also participated.

Forty-two percent of respondents reported they plan to use their windfall funds to pay down debt. An additional 20 percent say they will save the money, while 16 percent plan to buy "something they consider necessary.”

mern said...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=MnTs5PCWZ0g

hukabee crushed himself on SNL

this is hilarious!

mern said...

i think tina fey and bud r the last two people who want hildog to win.

i guess nader must secretly be a repub, becuase he just jammed a telephone pole up the dems butt.

he made a gud pt though, "if the dems cant win this election, even with me in it, they shud blow the entire party up, and start over"

Bunkerman said...

true re ice/snow and cold. Whrere are those great modelers ? They are just hypesters grabbing for funding $ and green crypto-fascists wanting power over all economies.

Bunkerman said...

re interest rates, from my experince, real long term investors are reluctant to invest at tess than 6% absolute level - they can't cover their liabilities at under 6%.

So the Fed helps the floating rate borrowers, not long term fixed rate borrower. That's enough. Gorss is right re overnight rate.

mern said...

quint emailed me back. just said he left revy, which i knew but didnt say y.

started his own fund.

writes for minyanville

revy must love that!

lol

Bunkerman said...

what consumer says or say they do/did is quite different their actual behavior. They like to sound prudent/thrifty but turn around and spend every cent.

Bunkerman said...

Quint commented here once or twice last year.

mern said...

A Spry Farrakhan Sings Obama's Praises

obama wud probably prefer he farrakhan didnt do that.

mern said...

u probably right about that bman.

americans love to spend money

was out an about this weekend.

every restaurant packed. every mall, no parking. every gas station cars waiting for the highest price gas ive seen yet. and this is area is in a "depression"

mern said...

I PASSED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mikey said...

thats fantastic mern !!!


uranium play USU earnings tonight

mern said...

thx!

i know USU quite well.

they get the centerfuge thing right yet?

i dont think the company is that great, fundamentally speaking, but i havent really looked at the funnys in over a yr.

fwiw

Bunkerman said...

GREAT MERN !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

USU refines and reprocesses old Soviet warheads into reactor fuel. They don't own uranium ore.

Bud said...

'world domination and accumulation of power'......that sounds like imperialism and colonialism

exactly what i was talkin about few days back

and yet the Oman wants to use the US armed forces to do a regime change in iran and venezuala.....and he fully supports the illegal and immoral invasion and occupation of iraq


the Oman sure is funny

Frosty said...

congrats Mern.

mern said...

thx frosty!

i guess u adding to the BSC short.

lol

mern said...

nader mite mush my bet for obama.

is he a repub in drag?

hiliary really hit some new lows this weekend calling obama out like that.

last i checked her plan was almost the exact samething that mitt passed in MA. and i have seen reports on cnn where MA residents that cant afford health care r getting fined. unless that is complete bs, she is LYING, again!

tina fey thinx obama jumped hildog becuase of oprah.

she was quite funny on saturday nite.

Bunkerman said...

lol Abud, I don't have an enemy recognition problem.

mern said...

gasparino

" R U A CROOK"


LMAOOOOOOO

mern said...

what an asshole!

mfl59 said...

right up your alley mern....this weekend i saw a show on the discovery channel i think it was...."Maxed Out"...families that spend more than they earn each month....pretty sad to watch actually...

mern said...

it is insane that someone like suzy orman is actually needed.

i make 100 grand a yr but we spend 120k, what shud i do suzy?

"um spend less" LOL!

they really shud teach fiscal discipline in HS!

Spin-em said...

mfl..PARTY ANIMAL!!!!!!

mern said...

spin i booked my flight today

ill be in "the valley" next tues, wed and thurs.

ill be in pittson. LOL, freaking pittson.

we shud break some bread and have a few drinks, if u wanna meet me.

if u dont, thats ok to. u can ask bud, im pretty much an asshole.

;-)

mern said...

mmerolli@verizon.net is my email

Bunkerman said...

Silver getting into my selling range. Maybe later this week I can let a few bars go.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...do you have a tirple load point for GOOG.

Bunkerman said...

haven't thought about that yet. It's not too far off my last add point.

Bear raids can push a $500 stocks around easily.

Bud said...

GOOG is headed to 350....clear breakdown i the chart


PS.......bring an extra-shirt if you gonna have drinks with mern......he spits and slobbers when he gets drunk

PPS......but he's not an angry drunk.....that's frsoty

Frosty said...

because I didn't tip you at the biker bar is no resaosn to call a person mean...I just thought your work on the pole was lacking.