Delusions

I finished two books over the weekend that both showed how crucial government policies can be influenced by delusions of the makers that have no factual basis. The books were "Lincoln and the Northern Response to Secession" and "Armed Truce: The Beginnings of the Cold War 1945-1946".

Civil War Delusion
The first book clearly shows the leaders of the North in both parties - Lincoln, Seward, Douglas, etc. - believed that there was a "silent majority" of the people of the south (more in the border states and less in the Deep South) who believed in the Union. So for the five month period from Lincoln's election in early November 1860 to early April, 1861, all these people strove to find a formula for appease the South, temporize and calm the seccession movement, which they thought would/might defuse the rebellion and over time restore the Union. But the book also shows that the leaders in the North really had an amazing ignorance of the opinions of the southern people. There was no "silent majority" for Union - that was a self-rationalized delusion. Finally in late March 1861, Lincoln sent trusted private emissaries to visit the South - they returned to tell him that not a shred of Unionist sentiment existed there. And he personally met with border state representatives who flatly told him that nothing less than total Northern acquiescence to every aspect of secession would "prevent" the further secession of the lower tier of the border states, viz. North Carolina, Virginia, etc. So Lincoln finally made a decision, stopped all appeasement and announced the mere resupply of Fort Sumter's food. South Carolina immediately attacked the fort as the initial violent event of the rebellion and ensuing Civil War.

Cold War Delusion
The book "Armed Truce" shows the leaders of the US government had an astonishing - colossal - ignorance of Stalin's Soviet Union. On February 9, 1946, Stalin made a speech to 4,000 top Communist party, military and government officials announcing a return to prewar collectivism and continued hostility to the west. The context was an "election" campaign for the Supreme Soviet. Here is a comment by a high British official echoed by Truman: "certain allowances must be made for election speeches, even in Russia." In France, Le Monde referred to the Stalin's speech as a "great electoral" one. Other western leaders thought that "the Russians do in fact intend cooperation with the West". In response to Churchill's famous "Iron Curtain" speech on March 5, 1946, Trygie Lie, the first UN Secretary General said that he "played into the hands of 'anti-Western elements' in Moscow".

I could give innumerable examples of the delusions of US and other western leaders and opinion makers about the nature of government and goals in Stalin's Soviet Union. The aforementioned book is chock full of precise, cited quotations.

The west was quite confused for years in many crucial decisions in dealing with the Soviet Union since many of its deeds mismatched and contradicted the delusion and its words. Not until the famous "Long Telegram" of George Kennan and Churchhill's "Iron Curtain" speech did the delusional fog finally begin to clear. Events aiding this were the capture of Soviet spies in Canada that showed aggressive Soviet spying and theft of secrets from its WW II allies.

Here is the crucial quote from the "Long Telegram" of late February 1946 -
"Belief that Soviet 'suspicions' are of such a character, that they can be altered or assuaged by personal contacts, rational arguments or official assurances, reflect a serious misunderstanding about Soviet realities and constitutes ... the most insideous and dangerous single error which Americans can make in their thinking about this country"

After the "Long Telegram" and Churchill's speech and innumerable examples of Soviet agression - the latest being its sending Russian troops and tanks into Persia in spite of a treaty to remove all troops by March 2, 1946, the US government finally had its own delusional fog removed and the policy of containment began that over the ensusing 45 years led to the downfall of the Soviet Leninist state.

Now
Obviously the current era has examples of delusions of governmental leaders. We now know that the current Iraq war was begun based on a form of delusion and illusion - about and created by Saddam Hussein. I'll write about that later.

Word of the Day
"Insideous" - adj. [$10]
"Insideous" means 1. working or spread harmfully in a stealthy or subtle manner; 2. designed to entrap: treacherous; 3. beguiling but harmful: seductive.
Sentence: see above quotation from the "Long Telegram"