Spending some time yesterday evening and this morning thinking about the "Why ?" of the huge rally, the refrain of a melancholy, yet popular song of the late 1960s came to mind: "Is That All There Is ?" sung by Peggy Lee, which was a hit in 1969 when I was a youthful high school student.
UBS reports a big writedown, fires its chairman, announces a large rights issue, ... and the stock pops up. The rights issue was underwritten with big current holders indicating they will buy.
LEH sells $4B preferred stock with a huge book of potential buyers unfullfilled.
The US manufacturing ISM rises to a bit over 48 - indicating no followthru to the slowdown - hence no increased economic deceleration. And the absolute number was just a smidge on the contraction side.
Blog readers know that the Fed is actually increasing the monetary base now.
So if one was a beefer bear, seeing an infinite amount of money ready to buy bank and bank stocks at book value, one might ask, "Is that all there is to a crisis ?
Ditto a fearful bull loaded with cash on the sidelines, who must also ask, "Is that all there is to a correction ?"
And on first day of the quarter, as asset allocation manager must think, "Is that all there is a slowdown ?
So the bears started to cover, the timid bulls started buying, and the asset allocators hit the "rebalance" button. The stock market closed at the highs quite strongly, Treasury bond prcies fell considerably as did gold prices.
Here's the refrain of the song:
"Is that all there is, is that all there is ?
If that's all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing.
Let's break out the booze and have a ball.
If that's all there is. "
PS: I remember hearing it on the radio in the basement of my parents's home, as I was doing a chemistry experiment with my home chemistry lab. Memory is so fascinating ... it's odd how almost 40 years later I still have an eidetic memory of that event, as if I was watching it. [For "eidetic", see March 17 "Word of the Day"].
PPS: I sold those LEH calls for a fine one day profit. I had planned to hold them until next quarter's earnings report by LEH, but my polydaemonist fears of the trading gods induce me to accept my quickie gain & sell ... pigs get slaughtered. [See March 10 blog "word of the day" for "polydaemonism"].
Word of the Day
"Idiographic" - adjective [$100] from Greek "idios" meaning personal.
Idiographic is a term from psychology meaning pertaining to or involving the study or explanation of individual cases or events.
Sentence: Today's idiographic blog about the causes of the rally adduced probable human reactions to the news of yesterday.
Compare to "nomothetic" which was the word of the day for March 25, 2008.
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56 comments:
OK ADP jobs number.
the IMF has lowered its outlook for world economic growth....well played men....highballs all around...pffttt
i'm pretty bullish now
i think weak beefers have been liquidated and the strong have survived
PS......if Ben has averted armageddon......i'd like to see him reappointed immeadiately
"hank and ben" "ben and hank"
lmaooooooooo
of course i don't know how to average down......uh....'time diversification'
if i'm wrong .......i'll be the first one jumpin out the bathroom window of the speak easy
i do know how to play beefer ping pong just a lil'bit
Bunk..if you must sing... may I suggest..instead of Peggy Lee you could belt out a Mr Barry Manilow tune...(with the Bunker Orchestra)
I made it through the rain
I kept my world protected
I made it through the rain
I kept my point of view
I made it through the rain
And found myself respected
By the others who
Got rained on too
And made it through
When friends are hard to find
And life seems so unkind
Sometimes you feel so afraid
Just aim beyond the clouds
And rise above the crowds
And start your own parade
'Cause when I chased my fears away
That's when I knew that I could finally say
I made it through the rain
I kept my world protected
I made it through the rain
I kept my point of view
I made it through the rain
lmaoooooooooooooooo
didn't post yday
prolly busy workin on assasination plans
peggy lee loooooooooooooooool
i bet Bman also listens to pat boone
IMF ... nest of fools and thieves.
Barry Manilow is a bit "modern" for me.
At least Peggy Lee had hits in the 1940s when good music was written and recorded.
no Pat Boone.
Yes to Frank Sinatra, Vaughn Monroe, Dick Haymes, etc. The good singers.
Bunkerman did you mean Getty Lee instead of Peggy Lee sir?
ha ha mfl.
Bud are you really bullish sir?
Bud...what are we buying bully bull...sorry, real buyers only show up on monday ahead of the tuesday rip...back to the corner.
real buyers do it on dips ;-)
'real buyers do it on dips'
gimme a f'ng break !!
real buyers been hidin underneath their desks all year
these are beefers......lookin for action.....that's what moves stox
I didn't say these were real buyers today. But if there are real buyers, they do it on dips.
die yankees die!!!
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
the first die yankees die
162-0 we're on our waaay
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JOE WHO???
Ted...tell me Ben...tell me...uh it's your job bunghole...Bud, great shame is upon you.
uh frosty........ted kennedy is my sworn enemy now
so is john kerry chris dodd pat leahy bob casey etc..........
PS.......frosty not on my enemies list......he's on my puke list
congress stop before I scream...explaining the tulip bubble to the greatest economic mind of a generation...OMFG
i can't wait for joba chamberlain to get lit up
what a punk........actin like he won game7 last nite
release the mosquito's
sorry you bet the Jays Bud..loool
but yeah he wasnt sharp
uhh Bud....Joba is a Native American sir...
Andrew Jackson indeed sir...
Joba is a low class redneck white trash tobacco chewin truck drivin wrangler wearin hillbilly........just like frosty
Elijah....tryin to be like Brock
youre 5 foot nuthin 100 and nuthin...and you hung with the best in the land....now go back
did Charles Schumer just say "beefer ping-pong"? lmaooooo
I am sure Ben enjoys these congressmen lecturing him on economic theories that he learned when he was in high school....
Bunkerman...Ben tossed the towel on the touch and go...what say you sir.
who the heck voted for this cat Hinchey? omg
hildog only chance is if obama takes her up on the bowling match.
obama 1
hillary, chelsea, willy 0
or maybe i shud just join his campaign, that wud kill it faster than nude pics of obama with a duck.
Sticking to my touch & go.
Jobs data this AM and ISM mfg backing me so far.
not listening, btw. Can't bear the Congressional fools & knaves.
i'm so bullish right now ......it's scary
As Hillary Clinton came under increasing scrutiny for her story about facing sniper fire in Bosnia, one question that arose was whether she has engaged in a pattern of lying.
The now-retired general counsel and chief of staff of the House Judiciary Committee, who supervised Hillary when she worked on the Watergate investigation, says Hillary’s history of lies and unethical behavior goes back farther – and goes much deeper – than anyone realizes.
Jerry Zeifman, a lifelong Democrat, supervised the work of 27-year-old Hillary Rodham on the committee. Hillary got a job working on the investigation at the behest of her former law professor, Burke Marshall, who was also Sen. Ted Kennedy’s chief counsel in the Chappaquiddick affair. When the investigation was over, Zeifman fired Hillary from the committee staff and refused to give her a letter of recommendation – one of only three people who earned that dubious distinction in Zeifman’s 17-year career.
Why?
“Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in an interview last week. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”
mern what's the word over at BSC?
is the mern fund getting reopened soon sir?
i have no idea
im ray charles driving a bus through rush hour traffic.
i did get paid today, so i got that going for me.
and i found out i get 3 weeks severance once i get canned, so i got that going for me to.
"paper or plastic?"
i got a bagging job, at publix, on hold.
the worden is asking me for a post nup, but we arent married?
Bud are you still bullish sir?
Bunkerman...how can you not watch the kings of the bailout (whatever you call it) on the hill thursday?...people pay good money for such comedy.
beefer ping pong ---> my portfolio
looooooooooooooooooool
i love beefer ping-pong
"it's scary"
hildog huge call out on the BSC deal...the hill will be must see tv thursday.
Bunkerman...take a look at those $vix july calls....22.5 and 30 10k each yesterday...another 10k at 30 today and a new open position 2k 35 strike....seems like cheap protection...thought I would try one more time.
yes Bud...watching options and strikes around ops expo is a suckers game...LMAOOOOOOOOO
i love Hillary ! i'll do anythin for her
die Obama die !!!!!
sheeeeeesh frosty
didn't know you so sensitive
oh wait......you are a little schoolgirl
Bud you have slandered both an African American and a Native American in one day...what gives sir?
that reverend has really done a number on you indeed...
LMAOOOOO...not much I haven't been called, but sensitive...that is a first...the softer kinder sensitive frosty will let that slide...your obvious pain.
'the reverend'
lmaooooooooooooooooooooo
Good morning little schoolgirl, can I come home with you?
Tell your mama and your papa I'm a little schoolboy too.
Come on now pretty baby I just can't help myself
You're so young and pretty I don't need nobody else.
Good morning little schoolgirl, can I come home with you?
Don't you hear me crying?
great song
muddy waters my favorite version of it
yardbirds good one too
PS......frosty prolly wants me to sing it to him
uh Bud...let's narrow that stance a bit.
nothing like the pigpen versions!
also weir does a gud one now. 7/6/03 @ red rocks stands out.
but getting a little creepy watching and listening to a 60 yr old man singing "im a little school boy too"
but he still sings mexacali blues with the line:
So instead I've got a bottle and a girl who's just fourteen,
And a damn good case of the Mexicali Blues. Yeh!
maybe he shud take that song out of the rotation.
nothing like the pigpen versions!
also weir does a gud one now. 7/6/03 @ red rocks stands out.
but getting a little creepy watching and listening to a 60 yr old man singing "im a little school boy too"
but he still sings mexacali blues with the line:
So instead I've got a bottle and a girl who's just fourteen,
And a damn good case of the Mexicali Blues. Yeh!
maybe he shud take that song out of the rotation.
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