Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Is That All There Is ?

Spending some time yesterday evening and this morning thinking about the "Why ?" of the huge rally, the refrain of a melancholy, yet popular song of the late 1960s came to mind: "Is That All There Is ?" sung by Peggy Lee, which was a hit in 1969 when I was a youthful high school student.

UBS reports a big writedown, fires its chairman, announces a large rights issue, ... and the stock pops up. The rights issue was underwritten with big current holders indicating they will buy.

LEH sells $4B preferred stock with a huge book of potential buyers unfullfilled.

The US manufacturing ISM rises to a bit over 48 - indicating no followthru to the slowdown - hence no increased economic deceleration. And the absolute number was just a smidge on the contraction side.

Blog readers know that the Fed is actually increasing the monetary base now.

So if one was a beefer bear, seeing an infinite amount of money ready to buy bank and bank stocks at book value, one might ask, "Is that all there is to a crisis ?

Ditto a fearful bull loaded with cash on the sidelines, who must also ask, "Is that all there is to a correction ?"

And on first day of the quarter, as asset allocation manager must think, "Is that all there is a slowdown ?

So the bears started to cover, the timid bulls started buying, and the asset allocators hit the "rebalance" button. The stock market closed at the highs quite strongly, Treasury bond prcies fell considerably as did gold prices.

Here's the refrain of the song:
"Is that all there is, is that all there is ?
If that's all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing.
Let's break out the booze and have a ball.
If that's all there is. "

PS: I remember hearing it on the radio in the basement of my parents's home, as I was doing a chemistry experiment with my home chemistry lab. Memory is so fascinating ... it's odd how almost 40 years later I still have an eidetic memory of that event, as if I was watching it. [For "eidetic", see March 17 "Word of the Day"].

PPS: I sold those LEH calls for a fine one day profit. I had planned to hold them until next quarter's earnings report by LEH, but my polydaemonist fears of the trading gods induce me to accept my quickie gain & sell ... pigs get slaughtered. [See March 10 blog "word of the day" for "polydaemonism"].

Word of the Day

"Idiographic" - adjective [$100] from Greek "idios" meaning personal.
Idiographic is a term from psychology meaning pertaining to or involving the study or explanation of individual cases or events.
Sentence: Today's idiographic blog about the causes of the rally adduced probable human reactions to the news of yesterday.
Compare to "nomothetic" which was the word of the day for March 25, 2008.

56 comments:

Bunkerman said...

OK ADP jobs number.

mfl59 said...

the IMF has lowered its outlook for world economic growth....well played men....highballs all around...pffttt

Bud said...

i'm pretty bullish now

i think weak beefers have been liquidated and the strong have survived


PS......if Ben has averted armageddon......i'd like to see him reappointed immeadiately

mfl59 said...

"hank and ben" "ben and hank"


lmaooooooooo

Bud said...

of course i don't know how to average down......uh....'time diversification'

if i'm wrong .......i'll be the first one jumpin out the bathroom window of the speak easy


i do know how to play beefer ping pong just a lil'bit

Spin-em said...

Bunk..if you must sing... may I suggest..instead of Peggy Lee you could belt out a Mr Barry Manilow tune...(with the Bunker Orchestra)

I made it through the rain
I kept my world protected
I made it through the rain
I kept my point of view
I made it through the rain

And found myself respected
By the others who
Got rained on too
And made it through
When friends are hard to find
And life seems so unkind
Sometimes you feel so afraid
Just aim beyond the clouds
And rise above the crowds
And start your own parade
'Cause when I chased my fears away
That's when I knew that I could finally say

I made it through the rain
I kept my world protected
I made it through the rain
I kept my point of view
I made it through the rain

Bud said...

lmaoooooooooooooooo

didn't post yday

prolly busy workin on assasination plans

Bud said...

peggy lee loooooooooooooooool

i bet Bman also listens to pat boone

Bunkerman said...

IMF ... nest of fools and thieves.

Bunkerman said...

Barry Manilow is a bit "modern" for me.

At least Peggy Lee had hits in the 1940s when good music was written and recorded.

Bunkerman said...

no Pat Boone.

Yes to Frank Sinatra, Vaughn Monroe, Dick Haymes, etc. The good singers.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman did you mean Getty Lee instead of Peggy Lee sir?

Bunkerman said...

ha ha mfl.

mfl59 said...

Bud are you really bullish sir?

Frosty said...

Bud...what are we buying bully bull...sorry, real buyers only show up on monday ahead of the tuesday rip...back to the corner.

Bunkerman said...

real buyers do it on dips ;-)

Bud said...

'real buyers do it on dips'

gimme a f'ng break !!

real buyers been hidin underneath their desks all year

these are beefers......lookin for action.....that's what moves stox

Bunkerman said...

I didn't say these were real buyers today. But if there are real buyers, they do it on dips.

mfl59 said...

die yankees die!!!

Spin-em said...

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

the first die yankees die

162-0 we're on our waaay
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JOE WHO???

Frosty said...

Ted...tell me Ben...tell me...uh it's your job bunghole...Bud, great shame is upon you.

Bud said...

uh frosty........ted kennedy is my sworn enemy now

so is john kerry chris dodd pat leahy bob casey etc..........


PS.......frosty not on my enemies list......he's on my puke list

Frosty said...

congress stop before I scream...explaining the tulip bubble to the greatest economic mind of a generation...OMFG

Bud said...

i can't wait for joba chamberlain to get lit up

what a punk........actin like he won game7 last nite


release the mosquito's

Spin-em said...

sorry you bet the Jays Bud..loool

but yeah he wasnt sharp

mfl59 said...

uhh Bud....Joba is a Native American sir...

Andrew Jackson indeed sir...

Bud said...

Joba is a low class redneck white trash tobacco chewin truck drivin wrangler wearin hillbilly........just like frosty

Spin-em said...

Elijah....tryin to be like Brock

youre 5 foot nuthin 100 and nuthin...and you hung with the best in the land....now go back

mfl59 said...

did Charles Schumer just say "beefer ping-pong"? lmaooooo

mfl59 said...

I am sure Ben enjoys these congressmen lecturing him on economic theories that he learned when he was in high school....

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...Ben tossed the towel on the touch and go...what say you sir.

mfl59 said...

who the heck voted for this cat Hinchey? omg

mern said...

hildog only chance is if obama takes her up on the bowling match.

obama 1

hillary, chelsea, willy 0

or maybe i shud just join his campaign, that wud kill it faster than nude pics of obama with a duck.

Bunkerman said...

Sticking to my touch & go.

Jobs data this AM and ISM mfg backing me so far.

Bunkerman said...

not listening, btw. Can't bear the Congressional fools & knaves.

Bud said...

i'm so bullish right now ......it's scary

mern said...

As Hillary Clinton came under increasing scrutiny for her story about facing sniper fire in Bosnia, one question that arose was whether she has engaged in a pattern of lying.



The now-retired general counsel and chief of staff of the House Judiciary Committee, who supervised Hillary when she worked on the Watergate investigation, says Hillary’s history of lies and unethical behavior goes back farther – and goes much deeper – than anyone realizes.



Jerry Zeifman, a lifelong Democrat, supervised the work of 27-year-old Hillary Rodham on the committee. Hillary got a job working on the investigation at the behest of her former law professor, Burke Marshall, who was also Sen. Ted Kennedy’s chief counsel in the Chappaquiddick affair. When the investigation was over, Zeifman fired Hillary from the committee staff and refused to give her a letter of recommendation – one of only three people who earned that dubious distinction in Zeifman’s 17-year career.

Why?

“Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in an interview last week. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”

mfl59 said...

mern what's the word over at BSC?

is the mern fund getting reopened soon sir?

mern said...

i have no idea
im ray charles driving a bus through rush hour traffic.

i did get paid today, so i got that going for me.

and i found out i get 3 weeks severance once i get canned, so i got that going for me to.

"paper or plastic?"

i got a bagging job, at publix, on hold.

the worden is asking me for a post nup, but we arent married?

mfl59 said...

Bud are you still bullish sir?

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...how can you not watch the kings of the bailout (whatever you call it) on the hill thursday?...people pay good money for such comedy.

maverick said...

beefer ping pong ---> my portfolio

Bud said...

looooooooooooooooooool


i love beefer ping-pong


"it's scary"

Frosty said...

hildog huge call out on the BSC deal...the hill will be must see tv thursday.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...take a look at those $vix july calls....22.5 and 30 10k each yesterday...another 10k at 30 today and a new open position 2k 35 strike....seems like cheap protection...thought I would try one more time.

Frosty said...

yes Bud...watching options and strikes around ops expo is a suckers game...LMAOOOOOOOOO

Bud said...

i love Hillary ! i'll do anythin for her



die Obama die !!!!!

Bud said...

sheeeeeesh frosty

didn't know you so sensitive

oh wait......you are a little schoolgirl

mfl59 said...

Bud you have slandered both an African American and a Native American in one day...what gives sir?

that reverend has really done a number on you indeed...

Frosty said...

LMAOOOOO...not much I haven't been called, but sensitive...that is a first...the softer kinder sensitive frosty will let that slide...your obvious pain.

Bud said...

'the reverend'

lmaooooooooooooooooooooo

mern said...

Good morning little schoolgirl, can I come home with you?
Tell your mama and your papa I'm a little schoolboy too.
Come on now pretty baby I just can't help myself
You're so young and pretty I don't need nobody else.

Good morning little schoolgirl, can I come home with you?
Don't you hear me crying?

Bud said...

great song


muddy waters my favorite version of it

yardbirds good one too


PS......frosty prolly wants me to sing it to him

Frosty said...

uh Bud...let's narrow that stance a bit.

mern said...

nothing like the pigpen versions!

also weir does a gud one now. 7/6/03 @ red rocks stands out.

but getting a little creepy watching and listening to a 60 yr old man singing "im a little school boy too"

but he still sings mexacali blues with the line:

So instead I've got a bottle and a girl who's just fourteen,
And a damn good case of the Mexicali Blues. Yeh!

maybe he shud take that song out of the rotation.

mern said...

nothing like the pigpen versions!

also weir does a gud one now. 7/6/03 @ red rocks stands out.

but getting a little creepy watching and listening to a 60 yr old man singing "im a little school boy too"

but he still sings mexacali blues with the line:

So instead I've got a bottle and a girl who's just fourteen,
And a damn good case of the Mexicali Blues. Yeh!

maybe he shud take that song out of the rotation.