The heat wave broke here and cool temperatures are returning. That's good as the Spring blossoms can survive a lot longer in moderately cool temperatures. The magnolia tree is covered with big purple & white blooms and the daffodills are in full glory. I have about 200 daffodills scattered in bunchs.
Perchance has Spring arrived for stocks, too ? The past two weeks have seen a congeries of accumulation days with solid increases in the major averages on good volume. Steady, grinding rallies with minor dips interspersed are also better for long term gains, too, as real buyers get stock at good prices. Rips up sponsored by beefer momentum traders aka virtual buyers are weak and can be reversed easily. Late yesterday saw some beefer ping pong as they hit the days highs prices. But this morning futures are up solidly.
Rotation from commodity plays seems underway as the dollar has firmed. As sketched in past posts, I see this coming Fed meeting as providing more dollar suppport to buttress the support they gave in the last meeting. All this market needs to begin a huge move up is a sign that home mortage defaults has peaked and that home prices are firming. I think that will occur this Spring.
Hence I am long 150% on margin in the Alpha Fund.
Word of the Day
"Divagate" - verb, intrasitive [$10] and "divagation" - noun.
Divagate means 1. to wander, stray; 2. to digress in speech.
Sentence: Modern political debates can be quite annoying as the politicians always divagate from the questions from the panel of correspondents or voters.
Here is a long quote from the fine book, "The Capitive Mind" by Czeslaw Milosz published in 1953 (the quote is from page three) where I first saw the word, "divagation". C. Milosz was awarded the Nobel Prize in literature in 1980. The book is primarily concerned with the immediate postwar period in Eastern and Central Europe. I've written numerous blogs on this period as I've tried very much to increase my understanding of this crucial, yet understudied, period of the 20th century.
"It was only toward the middle of the twentieth century that the inhabitants of many Euproean countries came, in general unpleasantly, to the realization that their fate could be influenced directly by intricate and abstruse books of philosophy. Their bread, their work, their private lives began to depend on this or that decision in disputes on principles to which, until then, they had never paid any attention. In their eyes, the philosophers had always been a sort of dreamer whose divagations had no effect on realilty. The average human being, even if he had once been exposed to it, wrote philosophy off as utterly impractical and useless. Therefore the great intellectual work of the Marxists could easily pass as just one more variation on a sterile pastime. Only a few individuals understood the causes and probable consequences of this general indifference."
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68 comments:
Babblevision is just getting impossible to bear .. the endless opinions with no facts.
did you have a chance to evaluate mern's thesis bunkerman?
not yet.
but it covered a lot more than stagflation.
the best news for the market this week is that the Fed is almost done
the dollar has bottomed
i am gettin bullish again
but i'm only a ping-pong player.....nuthin more nuthin less
paid 3.74 for regular unleaded gas today
that has to be hurting working families on fixed budgets
inflation is the big problem now
i will be examining my grocery bill this weekend when i shop
we are all very fortunate here that we don't have to worry too much over the cost of food.....but millions and millions of americans are facing hardships over it
'the bls has it about right'
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooo
inflation everywhere...$31 to golf now....when is this bull**** going to end?..lol
Well, to boil it to the Ben-related points, the Mernesq "solution" seems to raise rates enough to (1) cause a strong rally in the dollar and (2)cause broad based, worldwide recession. This is to "solve" the perceived serious stagflation.
That would be disatrous and put untold millions out of work in the US and worldwide and probably lead to civil strife in emerging markets and any other formerly growing economy - maybe a wroldwide depression.
It's basically a Hoover-esq policy. Volcker got way with that lunacy for a few years as the inflation was so high - over 15% - and government-induced stagnation was bad under the liberals of the 1970s.
It took Reagan to fire Volcker - not reappoint him - and to reverse the government restrictions on growth.
Ben just neds to do the bidding of Bunkerman. And we need a Congress and President to return to pro-growth and pro-common man policies, instead of endless earmark/pork/bribes and moronic "alternative energy" policies.
Of course, we need the uptick rule returned and regulation of hedge funds, too. ;-))
Cashin talkin about maybe no cut next week
i hope they don't cut
don't do it Ben !! don't do it !!
Here's a fine example of no inflation: Ameritrade does my trades for $8 each. In the early 1980s they cost about $40 at Merrill Lynch.
No cut seems quite possible especailly since they had two dissenters last meeting. Also the recent jobless numbers are OK.
But I don't think it matters as long as they signal a pause.
'31 bux'
lmaooooooooooooooooooo
i'm payin 58bux at 4 today.......twilite rate
now how do we get rid of inflation? well a lot of this is structual demand from CRIB (china, russia, india, and brazil). hiking rates to 10% wud get the job done, but obviously that wud get deflation and a depression going.
im not sure i was saying to jack rates, yesterday, looking at that comment.
watched some babblevision becuase it was too painful to watch sportscenter. STUPID FLYERS! all that doom and gloom, the MLK low must be the bottom of the range. i suppose over the next yr or two we can test the high on the spos. still makes sense, given stagflation, we stay ranged bound for yrs. we have been range bound since 2000. 1550 ish being the top.
even a strong dollar does not cure the problem becuase the yuan still need to appreciate smartly against the greenback.
mfl asked me a big question. im great at bitching and moaning and playing monday morning qb, but being a dayton graduate......... well my solutions, r probably rather antiquated.
plus i blackout everynight.
is that so bad?
Im only playin 9 today so $16....Ill check Sunday paper for coupon...loool
$58?????..Everything ok Bud?....I dont like the sound of that (wink)
mern you are a fine thinker...i just wanted to hear your opinion....keep in mind that Sportscenter's greatest anchor of all time, Mr Dan Patrick, was a Dayton Flyer...
Under the bunker-esq policies "inflation" will just wither away over time as people learn to use less oil, etc. And farmers plant more crops. ;-)
It wouild wither faster if Congress would get rid of its stupid no-drilling and ethanol policies.
Bud I'm surprised a guy like you isnt a member at some swanky country club, like Bunkerman....
"Sal may I take your clubs sir?"
"It's Mr. Sal, son, and make sure my shoes have a real nice spit shine to them....You do good and I'll give you $1"
Bud lives in a rich man's playground where the rich bid up the price of everything ;-))
LMAOOOOOOOOOO mfl.
gee, I always give the airport guy an extra finn for the shine.
[uh ... X/Y/Zer -> "finn" = $5]
'spit shine'
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I did notice a bit of "inflation" last week. My haircut price went from $16 to $17 ... after 5 years. Hmmm ... so inflation is 1.2% per annum by that measure.
um ive been to buds place.
he lives in the hood, of an upper class area code.
but he is quite the neat freak. and politely asked me to fart outside, after laying a smelly one upon arrival.
but my best memory is when i asked bud for bowl (remember some of buds quotes like "i love drugs"), and he brought me a cereal bowl. i guess if i asked for a crack pipe i wud have gotten closer to my goal.
ya dan patrick was already big when i was in college. thats when him and olberman wud do every sunday nite. he came back to school and spook. didnt go to that, but later that nite i was at "the bar" known as tims. and there was danny. standing on top of the bar, pulling up the hotties, pouring shots down thier throats and then chucking them back off the bar. everyone was going crazy. HE WAS OUT OF CONTROL! he was so UD, its not even funny. so if the bucs coach john gruden. i heard he was absolute maniac in college. still i doubt any of those guys went to the levels we did. i just cant see those guys dropping 10 hits of acid and socializing for 24 hours over 80 beers, and 63 bong hits.
THOSE WERE THE DAYS!
was the $17 for both haris...pitch hitting for Mav.
NEW YORK - Three detectives were acquitted of all charges Friday in the 50-shot killing of an unarmed groom-to-be on his wedding day, a case that put the NYPD at the center of another dispute involving allegations of excessive firepower.
Officers Michael Oliver, 36, and Gescard Isnora, 29, stood trial for manslaughter while Officer Marc Cooper, 40, was charged only with reckless endangerment. Two other shooters weren't charged. Oliver squeezed off 31 shots; Isnora fired 11 rounds; and Cooper shot four times.
31 shoots, ROFLLLLLLLLLLLL
im sure they planted a knife on him after the shot him 50 times. 31 rounds, thats 3 clips right? how dead can someone get before u say "ok thats enuff."
uh ... I have a full head of hair - no losses. Plus she did my eyebrows.
eyebrows? you get em'waxed??
i thought you were a man's man
looooooooooooool
PS....frosty has a bikini wax tomorrow....no surprise there.....he is a lil'bitch
uh mern.......did i not provide you with narcotics here
you seemed to have forgotten my hospitality
uh Bud...lil' worried little fella...wide stance, gay this and that, wax job...all these angery gay references,flirting perhaps or a cry for help?...I suspect you have entered an abusive gay relationship and are looking to bunker pals for support...we are here for you.
Mern, give Bud Spin's number, he has friday night sucicide watch...he'll talk you off the ledge if things get too RUFFFFFFF.
i blew that fastball right by frosty
bob needs some more work in the minors
lmaoooooooooooooooooooo
now you really have me concerned...very donnie moore like, he gave hendo a wink after that 86' series winning jack...and we know that didn't end well...Spin, stand at the ready sir.
Cindy and I cant come to the phone right now..if you leave.zzzzzzzzzzzz
oh wait
'friday nite suicie watch'
i just got it..........you really are mean frosty
lmaoooooooooooooooooo
PS......"ok bob.....skip and i had a talk.......we comin you up in the show.......durham bulls can wait"
mean, noooooooooo...just protecitng my JPM investment...this level 5 x 5 months...if Mern cleaned a little toe jam instead spending all day here...well who knows.
Other Mern-points:
Education - easy, just turn clock back to 1950. Discipline, rigor, real skills, etc.
Dollar - being solved by new export industries.
DC - need 1) line item veto to get rid of earmarks; 2) term limits to force to real world
Energy - 1. build 300 nuclear plants; 2. build coal plants for main electricty. Use nuclear plants to get hydrogen from water & go to hydrogen cars. Use natural gas to electricty peaks and for industry. Forget fantasies of wind+solar = crap
Food - easy - no more ethanol subsidies or mandates.
Hmmm ... drugs ... legalizing pot is OK with me. then hit the cocaine, etc. hard with freed resources. Drinking age should be 18.
What else need ssolved ?
Oh - Arab-Israel. Do nothing, let them fight it out or solve own problems.
US pulls back from all world interference. Declare victory over totalitarianism and go home. let other nations alone and live & let live. But keep strongest military though. Must have it to have peace.
Bunkerman for President !!!
Populist Libertarianism rules !!!
uh ... or was that Libertarian Populism ??
;-)
the Bman is not a libertarian
he wants more regulations...more laws.....more indictments.....
if anything he's a totalitarian
he's a phony for sure
'bring back the uptick rule'
Latent homosexuality: paranoid delusions rage and anxiety...ann coulter would be having a feild day.
one of the great and funniset scenes of all time......chris rock in jay and silent bob
i'm sure you all seen it.....Bman you have to check it out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MpYEFQPHwc
frosty doesn't get it......in the majors if you keep comin with the same pitch.......you gonna end up with a sore neck
the homo jokes were mildly amusing the first time.......they lame and makin me yawn now
serve up the wild bill ann coulter rant and that's the best you have...go ahead and take your pass, but stay close to the sack, I have one hell of a good move to first and I'm not affraid to us it...you have been warned sir.
'stay close to the sack'
who's a queer now???
lmaooooooooooooooooooooooo
that was pretty funny, Bud.
flaps down indeed...LMAOOOOOO
that whole movie is hilarious Bman...........but i don't think you'll get it
outta here
keep fightin Hillary......i got your back
die obama die !!!
guess i picked the wrong day for a long lunch.
i like a lot of bmans ideas, agree on nuclear. the muslims r everywhere, and loading up in europe.
i think the glass solution will make them shut up, everywhere.
uh bud, u and my ex best friend spit an 8 ball. i maybe did three tiny bumps. i dont like that stuff.
dogma definitely a great flic. for gods sake selma hayek plays a stripper. any movie that has a disclaimer in the begining that says if u thump bibles u shudnt watch the movie, must be gud.
im asking the coach for the day off.
im like george jetson, i must have pushed the on and off button 4 times today. im fried!
"im like george jetson, i must have pushed the on and off button 4 times today. im fried!"
loool...pisser
Geez you guys sure speak French or Martian a lot ... or I'm totally out of it.
Hmmm ?
Last TV series I watched loyally was Kojak.
I do know who George Jetson was ... but don't get the "pushed the on and off button"
Hmmm ... NYC cops sure need some weapons training - this spray & pray crap outrageous & risky.
[don't know facts of fact except the 50 rounds spray crap]
Who loves ya baaaby!!!
CROCKERRRRR!!!!!!!
yeah spin. Kojak ruled.
how bout a martini baaaby!!(speakin like Kojak for the rest of the day)lool
Yes !
I'm dreaming of a cold martini,
Just like the one I made last week.
With ice cold gin
and vodka, too
and white lillet with a tweest
boo boo boo boo
think Bing Crosby :-)
u never heard of the jetsons?
u ever hear of the flintstones?
its a 60's cartoon that i used to watch on sunday mornings before i was 10.
george wud fly to work in his car and work at a big huge computer. he worked about 4 hours a day, and once complained to his hot wife jane "i must have pushed the on and off button 4 times today" in reference to his office sized computer that did everything.
i still love the flintstones. betting freddy! BET BET BET BET BET BET
lol
tried a lil GT on that farley...capiche??
its ok by me if its ok BIDU...got me pussycat?
yeah, I watched the Jetson cartoon ... but didn't remember that line. There was a movie, too ? I thought maybe you were talking about it.
Fred Flinstone .. I liked that cartoon a lot.
First the man cave, then cross-dressing.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/homestyle/04/25/mancave.robklein/index.html
man cave ='s bunker
so is this the bman or bob?
martini time !
with a bowl of shelled pistachio nuts.
MOOOOOOOOOOOO!
have great weekends cupcakes
how bad was the flintstones movie?
betty was a hotie in cartoon land.
whoever thought having the cow rosie odonell play betty ruined all masterbation routines for the cartoon.
i have to sit here for another 56 minutes.
UGH!
peace
Stop the Presses ... Alpha Fund in the green for first day this year ... +2.4% !
Kicking beefer ass !!!
I think I liked Flintstones movie, but that was long ago.
Enjoy the weekend.
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