Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Plain Thinking

Much of the modern press blabbing obscures the plain meaning of facts. Here are two examples.

First, the Merrill Lynch story in this morning's WSJ is fascinating, providing many details on how the firm accelerated its purchases of CDOs as that market deteriorated. But it didn't say why.

Here's the "why" -> greed. The Merrill Lynch personnel from the people in the trading departments to the top executives like Stan O'Neil simply wanted to loot the firm for their bonus pools. They wanted to hold on until they could ring the register and take a big pile of cash home again. So they had the firm buy unmarketable CDOs classes of their own underwritings.

Ms. Market didn't cooperate for 2007, though, and they got caught in their own avalanche.

Second, the recent controvery about Obama has obscured simple facts. He's now trying to show he's a common man. [As is Hillary, but that's for another post.] Obama went to a private high school. Period. It doesn't matter if it was on a scholarship. And later to Columbia University and then Harvard Law School. Those facts provide a "prima facia" case for his being an elistist, barring actual behavior to the contrary.

And the statements about arugula as in indicator of inflation, and his disparaging remarks about small town people eliminate that possibility of sustained, counterexample behavior. He's an elitist, period, with no understanding of the lives of the common man or woman.

Logic, the plain meaning of words, and real facts let one understand events. Modern press mostly provides blather & babble.

Markets

Intel had a good earnings report, proving the world economy still has positive momentum. The JPM earnings will be important as will the CPI data today. I bought another slug of GE September 30 calls on Tuesday.

Words of the Day

"Spoliation" - noun [$10]
Spoliation means 1. the act of plundering; 2. the act of injuring beyond reclaim.
Sentence: The excessive greed - and stupidity - of Merril Lynch executives induced their spoliation of its cumulative earnings and profits from many prior years.

"Cupidity" - noun [$10]
Cupidity means excessive desire, esp. for wealth; avarice.
Sentence: The untrammeled cupidity of Merrill Lynch executives and traders for their annual bonus created the breeding pond for the huge losses now being reported.

["Untrammeled" means unhindered as a "trammel" is a restriction on free movement in this usage.]

40 comments:

Bunkerman said...

JPM reports good earnings.

Bunkerman said...

Coca-Cola beats eps.

Bud said...

i read that article.......the numbers are alarming....no one was sayin "what the f are we doin?"

i agree....so easy to connect the dots......as long as compensation is based on short term pops in the stock price......executives will do anythin to keep the stock goin

Bud said...

Obama is a liberal elite

unfortunatley it may not matter in the dem primaries.......but in the general election it will


GOP has won every election last 30 years....except when bill clinton ran.....thatt's not a coincidence

i've seen this movie before.......the liberal media just doesn't get it ( they all thought Kerry was gonna beat Bush)



PS.....obama just a taller and darker version of dukakis

Bunkerman said...

Illinois Tool beats eps, guides in line

Bunkerman said...

lol Bud ... good comparison to Dukakis ... fits.

Bunkerman said...

I don't understand how they could keep creating & buying paper that no one wanted ... just to sell subordinated pieces to beefers. The only answer is the bonus pump.

When I was in inv. banking, if we ended up with any paper, the deal was a failure & we didn't get paid.

Bunkerman said...

good CPI number.

Spin-em said...

helluva Dark side call Frosty re SKF.....thanks indeed

Bunkerman said...

industrial production "up" ... uh ... that question again comes to mind. ;-)

Bud said...

frosty never posted any darkside SKF here.......of course he's not obliged post anythin here

but i would have liked to receive that call too


so let's keep our kudo's calls private ......just like the call was private

Bud said...

did they reinstate the uptick rule?

Spin-em said...

"Bunkerman...covered my short fin exposure and went long, just to help you out...XLF over 24.50 keeps me in the game with a short of the SKF (double juice dark)."

Are all you guys in florida assholes?.....

Bud said...

oh yeah.....my bad......i guess i missed that one

my apologies to spin


PS.....why do you guys here have to resort to name-calling?....i know i've called frosty a pussy......but that's a fact

Bud said...

Dear Sal,


I'm going to give you the same advice I give to Hillary: block out the distractions -- the skeptics, the media coverage, the beltway chatter -- and keep your eyes on the prize.

With the news media constantly poring over the minutiae of the campaign, I make sure Hillary never forgets to stay focused on what matters: telling every last American about her vision, her experience, and her commitment to bringing real change to people's lives.

Let the press worry about the shifting polls and the daily back-and-forth. As long as Hillary stands up for the values we share -- and as long as you stand up for her -- she's going to win this race.

It's a tight race, whether you're counting delegates or total votes, the kind where one big victory can shift the momentum. We've got a race like that coming up in Pennsylvania in just six days, and you know what a difference your immediate action can make. You've been there for Hillary in the past, and now she needs you again.

Contribute now to help Hillary win big in Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

We know Senator Obama's strategy: spend, spend, and spend some more.

His campaign is hoping their spending is enough to win the primary and bring this race to a close. But they weren't counting on the incredible connection Hillary has made with Pennsylvanians or the remarkable support you have shown her.

Tonight, Hillary will share the stage with Senator Obama in a debate, and Pennsylvania voters will consider their final decisions over the next six critical days.

If you contribute to Hillary's campaign today, you can be assured of two things: it will go right back out the door to help her win, and it will make a difference in this close race.

Contribute today for our Pennsylvania victory.

Don't forget: stay focused on what's important, and we'll celebrate victory together.

Thank you,


Bill Clinton

Frosty said...

smoke out smack down...Bud just can't handle big leauge pitching...no shame in that unless you fail realize your swing needs work back in aa ball.

indeed Spin...trade florida to cuba for a box of cigars, toss in the bosox to seal it.

Bud said...

has nuthin to do with handlin big-league pitchin

i hate retroactive trades and congrats for picks never posted.....i can read those in the tank all day


i just missed frosty's post from yday........my fault.......cost me a few bucks


aa ball? gimme a f'ng break

Bud said...

i listen to frosty on banks and brokers

after all ....he did work in a bank


" we're out of creamer.......and clean the refigerator too"

Frosty said...

where is mern...must be pretending to work...stalking the pope perhaps, #1 on snipe list...I won't be around on Friday, fyi.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...the TLT looks broken, what say you sir.

Bunkerman said...

Agree re TLT. Fundamentals are horrible for it, too.

mern said...

Measuring inflation without including food and energy costs no longer makes sense, PIMCO Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross told CNBC.

But more economists and analysts, including Gross, think that the core rate is no longer that meaningful. Because food and energy have risen so much and account for a huge chunk of household expenses, discounting them misses the mark about inflation and can threaten monetary policy, said Gross, who heads up the California-based bond investment giant.

The headline is really what rules and prevails in the real world," Gross said.

Gross said the end result of US economic conditions, with weak growth and a listless stock market, is a flooded market for Treasurys.

"We think that Treasurys are perhaps the most overvalued asset in the world," he said.

mern said...

spin just becuase i liked king pin and u didnt, doesnt make me an asshole.

and i apologized

Frosty said...

OMG...bringing the heat from scranton...Spin has them reeling in the pan handle...watch the rotation of the laces, but coach, I can't see the ball...LMAOOOOO

mern said...

frosty u just swung and missed at a soft ball bitches lob!

* 316 responses

Yes, the price of everything is going up, up, up.
83%

No, get the mortgage mess under control then worry about inflation.
17%


imo, the 17% r the E word that obama does not want to be portrayed as. 316 samples from people who surf the CNBC site is probably a decent picture of what is occuring to the "common man" in this country.

Spin-em said...

"spin just becuase i liked king pin and u didnt, doesnt make me an asshole."

I liked Kingpin and I agree mern.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman you were spot on yesterday...when BIG JOHN speaks you can sense the presidential qualities, leadership indeed......the other two clowns...nails on a chalkboard or wax on wax off, take you pick.

mern said...

then we agree
im an asshole.

and bud is a self hating obama wanna be.

Spin-em said...

cap gains

Big John 15%

Hilldod 20%

Bama 25%

mern said...

A separate report showed that higher prices and rising unemployment resulted in falling wages in March. After adjusting for inflation, average weekly earnings for nonsupervisory employees dropped 1 percent last month, compared to the same period a year ago. It was the sixth straight month that inflation-adjusted wages were down.

is that stagflation?

;-)

mern said...

For individual food items, the gains are even more stark, with the price of bread up 14.7 percent over the past year and milk prices up 13.3 percent over the same period.

luckily most people dont eat bread and drink milk.

wages going down, prices going up at an insane rate.

if this isnt stagflation, im a gud trader

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...to much tinder for the bears to walk away from the table and let the bulls run unchallenged into friday...ops expo indeed...what is the schedule for the rest of the week so we can plan accordingly...when your done with your nap.

Frosty said...

that 4.74 XLF put/call I mentioned yesterday that prompted my liberal like fin flip flop is now 1.12.

Bud said...

i have no idea what frosty is talkin about......is the market goin up or down? what is "tinder" ?


spin? anyone ?????

Bunkerman said...

actually was sorting my spare parts for my ... uh ... you don't want to know ;-)

Plan is to go thru earnings with no new bad news, then fed cuts 25 bps, signals likely done.

Dollar rips up, bears panic, market goes up 1000 pts.

;-))

Bunkerman said...

tinder is highly flammable stuff a camper / survivalist starts a fire with.

Bud = city-slicker ;-))

Frosty said...

AMZN test of 75 today...free of the strike perhaps a swift move to 80...great tell of the bear hand and willingness to make way of a bull stampede.

Bunkerman said...

I sure screwed up my BNI play from the fall - chose badly on what to keep on MLK day, at least ST.

Bunkerman said...

pioneers kept tinder in a tinder box safe from moisture to be able to start a fire fast in the wilderness.

mern said...

wahoojae - Wednesday April 16, 2008 01:13PM EDT
I'm just middle class and getting by while saving more and spending less. I can't imagine how the lower income class are coping while their total energy bills have more than doubled, and the cost of food also has risen. Do any of the 6 figure plus members of our government even care? I voted for Bush, but does he care? Sure doesn't seem like it. At this rate, I may soon be joining the lower income class.



the comman man speakith, da truth