TGIF

An alternate title was my old favorite, "I've Heard That Song Before", but since C hasn't reported as I write this, I didn't want to anger the trading gods.

GOOG crushes estimates and the stock was up 75 pts. in afterhours trading. So the bears were wrong and ... Bunkerman was right ... again. Hehe :-)

I owned a lot of GOOG in my Alpha Fund, having added a good bit down around 440. So I flipped some at 505 and a bit more at 525 afterhours. I plan to sell a bit more this mornig to get my position size down to an amount I can hold comfortably for a couple years, viz., about 10% of the Alpha Fund assets at 150% margin..

My thinking is that GOOG goes to 1000 in next year. Besides its inherent growth and quality of earnings, all types of Internet businesses benefit from high oil prices as searching online saves consumers from searching in malls, hence gasoline savings will continue a shift in shopping preferences to online. Also, some time soon GOOG should start making money from all its experimental ventures. I think the GOOG guys are smart and aren't wasting money.

Yesterday I started a short position in TLT, which is the ETF for long term US Treasury bonds. I should have started that early this week when its weak chart was mentioned by a commentor, "frosty". But I was distracted by my taxes. US Treasury bonds are grossly overpriced in my thinking on fundamental grounds. And the daily chart for TLT looks like a downtrend has begun. I figure that with core long term inflation at about 2%, then the 30 year US Treasury bond should be at least 5%, vs. its current yield of about 4.5%. An increase in yield from 4.5% to 5% will cause the bond prices to fall about 10%. So I sold short some TLT and will short more on a good entry. I won't make my 30% target total annual return on this trade, but by this fall might have a good profit for a short holding period.

Word of the Day

"Dialectic" - noun [$10]
Dialectic means 1. logic; 2. discussion and reasoning by dialogue as a method of intellectual investigation: the Socratic technique; 3. the logic of fallacy; 4. (plural) any systematic reasoning, exposition, or argument that juxtaposes opposed or contradictory ideas and usually seeks to resolve the conflict; 6. the dialectic tension or opposition beteen two interacting forces or elements.
Sentence: Bunkerman plans to seek new investment ideas through the overarching dialectic of the conflict of high energy and metal prices with high demand from growth in emerging economies. Solutions derived from more efficient uses, substitute products, alternative processes or altered behavior should create new companies or businesses that will make highly profitable long term investments.