Yesterday was a hot day here in Massachusetts ... I hope it moderates as the spring blossoms last a lot longer with moderate, cool temperatures.
Mr. Market was taking a well-needed nap yesterday. Some call it base-building, some call it consolidation, but what that means is that stock is being slowly accumulated on dips by real buyers from traders flippimg shares or from rotation. In other words, stock moves from weak to strong hands. After the S&P broke the slight downtrend line, consolidation is important. This sets up the market for a grinding move up as semi-perma-bears slowly capitulate and recognize their errors in thinking armagedon is coming.
I am doing nothing, except moving books to my new library in the renovated second floor of my barn/garage. I had a huge pile in the "Great Room" in the bunker here - it's sort of reminiscent of the armory in the great hall in the Tower of London. So I need to get the books to the new library so I can appreciate my sword & shell collection (and those aren't seashells !). Also that lets me re-sort the books that I expect to read & use soon, vs. long term storage for irregular access.
AAPL had fine numbers with conservative guidance, as expected. Those Mac sales are the key ... over time, I expect them to get 25% of the PC market since Windows sucks, especially Vista, which is total crap. Since Mac share is now at about 7%, that means years of strong growth. I'll re-buy that bit I flipped on a serious dip.
If CVX goes to 100, I'll let take long term sugar on shares I've held over a year, too. "Buy dips, sell rips" is the applicable investing rule for resource stocks. If you use time diversification and manage your position size, you can get long term gains on the large sales profits and good entries on the major dips. I've done that for several years on those stocks.
Next week, I expect the Fed to cut 25 bps and signal a pause. I think the dollar will then rally significantly and start a rotation to US stocks. The possibility does exist the Fed will not cut at all in the next meeting. That's OK with me. The 25 bps means little and 2.25% is low enough for the overnight rate. Enduring focus by them on other liquidity measures is more important.
A dollar rally might put an intermediate term lid on oil prices as speculators rotate out. That would be a plus.
Word of the Day
"Caco-" - a combining form [$100]
Caco- is a combining form meaning "bad", occurring in loan words from Greek (cacoemon); on this model, used in the formation of compound words.
Examples: The common example is cacophony or cacophonous. Others words including "caco-" are cacodemon, cacodyl, cacoepy, cacoethes, cacogenics, cacography, cacology, and caconym.
"Cacoepy" - noun [$1000] rare (stress on the 'coe syllable)
Cacoepy means bad or erroneous pronunciation; opposed to orthoepy. Hence, cacoepistic is the related adjective.
Sentence: George W. Bush suffers from terminal cacoepy when saying the word, "nuclear", which he always pronounces wrongly as "nu cu lar" instead of "nu cle ar" with a long "e".
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56 comments:
'sword and shell'
huh????
what the heck are you talkin about???
why do you even have a sword? are you a samurai??
what is a shell???
sheeeeeeeeeeeeesh
lol whats your pride and joy shell bunk?
It's a collection, Bud. Sheesh. Historical interest. I can give a lecture on the history of arms & armor over the millenium ... over beers/wine/martinis before serving the grilled steaks. ;-)
For example, I have a replica of a Roman "gladius" and a Viking battle ax, among many others. Btw, my Zulu spear, shield & war club are authentic, made my Zulu maidens ;-)
A shell is what is put into a large gun or mortar, such as a 90 mm recoiless rifle, 60 mm mortar, or 3" naval gun.
Again, historical interest.
Btw, all shells are dummy - demilled versions - or training versions.
The Japanese "knee mortar" shell picked up by my father-in-law on Einiewetok in the Pacific in WW II. It's colorfully painted with Japanese writing. The Jap must have been in a hurry and forgot to pull the pin on the detonator. The explosive has been removed.
The 100 lb. dummy practice bomb is very impressive, too.
I thought about getting a 500 lb. dummy practice bomb, too, but it was too big. ;-)
running with your word of the day theme bunkerman, may I suggest "cacophony" as a $10 addition?
I am retarded...please ignore my post....sheeesh
np ... it's a $10 word ... I plan to use all the caco- words soon.
good jobless number.
good durable good, too. Touch & go will working.
spot on AAPL Bunkerman...Bud must feeling great shame today...I will take it easy on him and let the wounds heel...tugging on supermans cape never turns out well.
so get to pussy practice last nite, and there were about 7 older gentlemen in a circle.
what were they doing u ask?
well they werent making a soggy biscuit.
they were talking about inflation. they were bitching about the economy. thier rants were so retarded they make my rants sound ivy league.
i didnt even bother to chime in, if u can believe that.
these guys r upper middle class, a couple middle class.
well im done for the day.
1 hour and 20 minutes of work, not bad.
its quite funny how a little $ strength send the materials stocks into a swoon....
"wrongway beefers"
http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers451-475/r452.pdf
this study on stagflation shud kill a couple of hours.
lets get insane: lets pretend that during this election process it is discovered the BLS is watering down inflation. lets assume an inflation rate of 7% and GDP growth is negative late 2008.
what shud the PE of the S&P be in that type of macro environment?
10, 8, 12 ????????????
beefers = drunken yokels trying to get out the back door at the speakeasy when the cops knock on the front door.
Trivia: What's the password ?
uh Mern...do you retain anything you read here...searching papers writen for eight grades for facts, this isn't dayton, where that crap flys...one and done with a dollar rally...Bunkerman please regain control, this is beoming rediculus.
I see on the news stand tabloids that aliens have invaded driving up costs by stealing bee hives for their home planet...it was noted they were recently seen at costco cornering the rice market as well.
this was written by the university of michigan and big ben is quoted often.
it is a very interesting read, imo.
basically the premise is there r two kinds of stagflation. the real bad one is when inflation starts to get crazy after output as topped.
another point is stagflation usually springs to life several yrs after lose monetary policy.
mmmmmm, elmer in the late 90's into and through 2003.
so not only is responsible for the housing bubble, but stagflation.
SIR ELMER INDEED?
uh ... output topped ? I think Malthus was proven wrong about 150-200 years ago.
And the monetary base numbers prove there is no excessive printing of money for several years.
As for changing the deinitions ... uh ... not going there.
It's not different this time.
All this is economic re-adjustment of prices, etc.
lolol beefer caught spreading false rumors for near raid ... nahhhh ... that never happens.
no window dressing, either.
Bring back the uptick rule.
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!
wow.....so much nonsense.....so little time
ok.....lemme try
1. 'spot on' ......huh??........don't average down and flip for a profit.....just like a beefer does
what an ass kisser
2. 'wrong way beefers'......uh commodities only up 467%.....eventually they were gonna come in.......wrongway been the rightway for a year
thanks mfl !!
3. SEC interferin with the constitution.....that's disgraceful
'spreading rumors' what the f is that??
Bman sounds like a communist
you guys are so pathetic
in 89 Bernanke suggested that in 1974 stagflation was caused by the fed underestimating inflation expectations.
hasnt he been saying for over a yr the CPI shud rollover "in the coming qrts"?
but the author debunks that theory, again stating "on average output leads inflation by 5 qrts"
bud goes down swinging like ryan howard.
although now stating stagflation and output r not tightly coerrelated.
????????
lmaooooooooooooo atta boy Bud...that was way too easy sir....
FXE a clean break today confirms the dollar has bottomed heading into the fed meeting just like...uh Bunkerman predicted...sold his metals miners and sheading oil...sounds to me like he was "spot on"...need I mention those great fin trades around the core...I didn't think so.
weird to hear someone cheerin on the US government for goin after a trader who made 26k on a 'rumor'
it's f'ng scary
Bman is a phony
beefer ping pong is back!!!!!!
i love table tennis
GLD off 15% since bunk sales and will soon trade with a 7 handle...that call sucked aaazzzzzz...at least we know bunky puts his money where his mouth is...anything less is like a liberal bitch slap fight, soon to come to a state near me.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2008/2008-64.htm
read that boys........that's our government
it's odd that Bud doesn't understand the difference between paying 40% tax on a trade and 20% tax on a LT hold.
One can buy multiple lots of stock (aka time diversification), then make sales partial sales on rips to make LT gains, while holding a core postion. Beats paying 40% taxes on ST trades. Then later, one can re-buy on dip & then still later, sell the 2nd piece for LT gains while stil keeping a core holding.
A trader flips the whole piece every time & pays 40% tax on it every profit. He must make twice my profit to break even and have exquisite timing.
although the article is 10 yrs old it provides quite a bit of insight to how bernanke perceived the 70's in the late 80's and 90's.
near the end, pg 34, there r 5 elements the author suggests r neccesary for stagflation.
we have all of em right now except the CPI and GDP deflator shud be more divergent.
imo, the bls gave real cpi data. obviously the bls is full of shit right now.
with all that said, doesnt look like the bear market will breach the MLK lows. ben back then and now today is/was more concerned about growth.
i think at the end of the day ben knows much of this inflation is structual and his tools to fight wont work. so the only thing to do is cut rates and stabalize the asset portion of the economy.
when do we start buying silver again?
fwiw, as a mechanical asset allocation, I bought some GLD and SLV this morning in my new Vanguard brokerage account inside my existing SEP-IRA, so I have no taxes on trades of it.
Bullion profits get taxed at 28% fed + 12% state here - ugh !!!
Still have core metal on both.
gold decline + stock rally had made my gold+silver asset allocation holding too small - 4% vs. target 5%.
Purely mechanical - making no directional decision - I paid Krypto a couple dog biscuits for the "management fee"
Dear Sal,
The night of our great Pennsylvania victory, my thoughts turned to you and all the people like you who worked so hard and gave so much to make this celebration possible -- and I can’t thank you enough. And I knew that, as our campaign moves forward, you and I would continue to work side-by-side, to sustain each other, and to win together.
I recorded a special message for my online supporters that evening, and I'd like you to take a look. And I hope that you will make another contribution today to keep our incredible momentum from Pennsylvania going -- straight through to Pennsylvania Avenue!
Click here to watch the video and make a contribution to drive our campaign forward.
Thank you so much for everything.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Mern say you are Ben Bernanke....outline your plan to fix what is deemed broken...Bunkerman-please evaluate mern's answer...
oooooo mfl puts mern on the spot :-))
does this fool from Oppenheimer ever tire of coming on tv and saying there is no demand for oil? sir you missed a wonderful $100 rally with your nonsense....
Babblevision has gotten really bad.
If there was no demand for oil, world inventories would be exploding. But that's not happening.
US gasoline demand has fallen a bit, but it's a world market as gasoline is imported & exported easily now.
Bud this is for you son...."people around the world have to eat, regardless"....Potash CEO on bloomberg tv
I mostly listen to Blabberg now, except for squawk box.
Even Erin's producers give her junk to peddle.
This greenie week was the end. The X/Y/Z-er producers probably want to score with greenie babes in NYC ;-)
Although just now I was listeing to a German lieder and reading an intellectual book ;-)
Waiting for mern's cure for the "presumed" staggerlee ...
The MernBen Mind Mold Cure.
ooops that's Mind Meld.
OK, maybe it's Ben Mernacke ;-)
I suspect a Volcker-esq solution is brewing ...
interesting...Dennis Gartman agrees with my wrongway beefer thesis...."funds are a bit reckless and emotional when trading commodities"...pffttt
Bud the reverend needs his dry cleaning picked up...can you get it by 5 pm sir?
dry cleanin
gimme a f'ng break !!!!
i've never kissed his or anyone's ass........i don't do that
frsoty kisses ass.....and he enjoys it....but he has a wide stance oc ourse
lmaoooo did I just catch you swinging at my 47 mph knuckler?
bud did u cream yourself after watching the video?
was working out.
let me think for a second.
but ya, Volcker is my idol
well imo many of the problems we face r structual. also, imo, we r on the decline like the roman empire. the USA peek was 1999, prince was right!
also becuase greenspan was sooooo insane i think these problems r beyond the fed.
r new presidents first order of business is to kick out all lobbyists, the gud and the bad, GONE!
2nd, fire 30 to 50% of all govt employees. get rid of the IRS, go straight to the consumption tax. get rid of the BLS and sub contract private companys to compile the data, like ADP.
cut the crap out of welfare programs. start with anyone on welfare must take a drug test. if they fail no check. either rehab which u pay for, when u get a real job and get your pay docked for treatment.
make all drugs legal, and tax the crap out if it. use the money to educate children about the evils of drugs. this is a medical problem not a crime, imo.
now how do we get rid of inflation? well a lot of this is structual demand from CRIB (china, russia, india, and brazil). hiking rates to 10% wud get the job done, but obviously that wud get deflation and a depression going.
i guess for america to get back on track it totally needs to reinvent itself.
as a society we have to drop the sense of entitlement. we have to realize that many countries have lapped us in education and that is really hurting.
a lot of this wud go away if someone or some company invented a real alternative to oil, something the US can patton/invent/manufacture.
since i can remember (all the way in the 70s) we have been searching for a solution to oil.
i dont know, that is a start, but cleaning up all this bullshit from greenspan, probably not possible.
Volcker set the table for a long structual bull market. Elmer completely fucked it up after LTC, Y2K, 911, and his speech in 2003 suggesting ARMS.
we r past the pt of no return, no?
the $ is a fiat currency and bounces aside which can last for a yr or longer the trend is clearly down.
another major drain is the iraq war. well my solution is the same as it as been since 2004. pull the troops out. send some mayflowers to israel, sneek them out in the middle of the night, and give the jews new orleans. then make a lot of glass. bad solution i know, but what else we gonna do. wait for the rag heads to start a nuclear thing and then the whole world goes.
middle east turns to glass and if russia or china dont like it, well the world can end in our gods name and not ALA.
i guess some people have a bunker for a reason.
who ever just farted, please excuse yourself sir.
loooooooool
that knuckle ball really bamboozled me
"i'm pullin you Bud"
"but skip.........gimme 1 more at bat......i can hit knucklers"
"not today Bud......hit the showers......jose.....take bud's place in left"
gil needs a pamprin.
i didnt fart, but thinking u queafed
i know how the air can get trapped in there after hildog puts the strap on, on and pounds.
to release all gas, remove dildo and press on the stomach.
LMAOOO...you worked so hard on your bunker assignment, you forgot to keep you eye on the ball.
Good job mern...brilllliant.
i was on the bench not expecting to hit today.
then get called up in the 9th with 2 outs and 2 on.
i buckled.
i guess i need a bunker
hmmm ... that's long ... I'll have to dissect the mernsolution tomorrow. Or maybe I'll just give my own.
id like to amend my answer to better align it with my own personal goals.
hike rates to 10%, let the $ rip.
then i can move to figi and get the flock out of this bible thumpin, trailer trash of a country
;-)
lily thai for president!
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