That means Happy New Year in German, literally Good New Year.
This evening I will do some powerful voodoo to help ensure a prosperous New Year. I'll make about four dozen golden spring rolls. Having spring rolls at New year's is a Chinese "good luck" charm - I learned this from the famous Chinese chef and restauranteur of the 1960-70s, Joyce Chen in cooking classes in the mid 1970s. The reasoning that spring rolls are good luck is that they are made to look like bars of gold. Thus having them for New year's is a good luck charm.
I suppose it's similar to my grandmother saying that having sauerkraut at New Year's was also good luck. Maybe it's for the same reason - sauerkraut can look like golden threads.
My spring rolls are baked, not deep fried - I get the gold color by spraying them with Pam, or brushing with olive oil. The filling is hamburger, bok choy, green cabbage, green peppers, onions, oyster sauce and various other Chinese spices. I'll make four dozen and have them for New Year's eve dinner with Mrs. B along with a fine Golden Kryptonite Martini.
Hey, that's a double voodoo spell !
Wait ... quintuple voodoo - I'm making some golden sauerkraut for New Year's day dinner, along with a pork roast & golden Bavarian potato pancakes. Maybe I'll have a bottle of fine German reisling wine, too. That would be quintuple voodoo as the wine is a golden color.
Doing my best for the common man ;)
Actions
I still have the S&P January puts. If the market doesn't drop during the first week, I'll roll them forward into a later expiration date.
Word of the Day
"Preterite" - adjective and noun [$10] Grammatical
Preterite means (adjective) expressing a past action or state; (noun) a preterite tense or form.
Sentence: As all events of 2009 will soon be described only in preterite tenses, we can hope that 2010 will bring good news for the common man in its soon applicable present tenses.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Polls in, Obama Speaks
Obama's pollsters got the overnight results in and ... he speaks !
His hand-picked appointee to the homeland Security Department was being bashed - rightfully, she's a fool - and the polls showed plenty of slippage for Obama's "leadership" and job approval, so he decides to get off the beach and away from the hula girls to speak about the terrorist attack.
WSJ: "A systemic failure has occurred and I consider that totally unacceptable," the president said, referencing "a mix of human and systemic failure." In his comments, the president cited information "that could have and should have been pieced together."
Gosh, what a revelation ! Anyone, repeat anyone, motivated to protect the American people as a priority would have done something with any single piece of that data. But Obama's people did nothing. Why ? They have other priorities.
This seems to be a failure at the very top - much like W on the Katrina debacle. Three days of silence tells one all that is needed. He just doesn't see this as a priority. That's rather obvious, based on his record on Guantanamo. This is just more confirmation.
This clown is becoming dangerous. Let's hope the outcries force some changes.
Word of the Day
"Bastinado" - verb & noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Bastinado means (noun) punishment by a beating with a stick on the soles of the feet; (verb, transitive) to punish a person in this way.
Sentence: This blog intends to apply verbal bastinado to Obama and his minions whenever needed, even daily, until they start acting in the best interests of the American people.
His hand-picked appointee to the homeland Security Department was being bashed - rightfully, she's a fool - and the polls showed plenty of slippage for Obama's "leadership" and job approval, so he decides to get off the beach and away from the hula girls to speak about the terrorist attack.
WSJ: "A systemic failure has occurred and I consider that totally unacceptable," the president said, referencing "a mix of human and systemic failure." In his comments, the president cited information "that could have and should have been pieced together."
Gosh, what a revelation ! Anyone, repeat anyone, motivated to protect the American people as a priority would have done something with any single piece of that data. But Obama's people did nothing. Why ? They have other priorities.
This seems to be a failure at the very top - much like W on the Katrina debacle. Three days of silence tells one all that is needed. He just doesn't see this as a priority. That's rather obvious, based on his record on Guantanamo. This is just more confirmation.
This clown is becoming dangerous. Let's hope the outcries force some changes.
Word of the Day
"Bastinado" - verb & noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Bastinado means (noun) punishment by a beating with a stick on the soles of the feet; (verb, transitive) to punish a person in this way.
Sentence: This blog intends to apply verbal bastinado to Obama and his minions whenever needed, even daily, until they start acting in the best interests of the American people.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
TO: Janet Napolitano - RESIGN !
The leader of the Homeland Security Department should resign at once. She is obviously a hack with no skills at enemy identification or willingness to protect the people. And she's a liar, going for the big lie to hide her own failures.
Over the weekend after the terrorist attack, she said the system worked, when it obviously utterly failed. Only the independent actions of a Dutch man prevented a disaster.
The terrorist was flagged as dangerous, but was not searched prior to boarding the plane. Now she covers her ass by having everyone searched. How ridiculous !
From today's WSJ: "The warning by Mr. Abdulmutallab's father should have been combined with information from airline personnel, such the suspect's purchase of his ticket with cash and his carrying only a backpack for an international flight. That behavioral profile "doesn't mean he should be on the no-fly list, but he should be checked out," the counterterrorism official said."
Napolitano was the fool who last spring said that returning US war veterans were a risk for terrorism.
Now they impose intrusive searches on everyone coming to the US. That's the typical leftist proto-fascist response. Don't identify and target the likely terrorists. Waste billions searching everyone in the name of "fairness".
Hey Barry ! Get you butt off those Hawaiian beaches and fire her ! Get a real leader for that job.
Actions
I bought a short ladder of puts on the S&P 500 - the January expiration puts on SPY with strikes at 110 and 113. My 1-2-3 Fund is now about 300% short effectively from the option deltas. If the year end / year beginning drop does not occur, I'll roll them into longer term puts that have more staying power.
Word of the Day
"Rapscallion" - noun [$10] archaic or jocular; from "The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn" by Mark Twain.
Rapscallion means a rascal scamp, or rogue.
Sentence: Congress is full of rapscallions whose only actions are lining their own pockets and those of their supporters with or by means of tax money.
Over the weekend after the terrorist attack, she said the system worked, when it obviously utterly failed. Only the independent actions of a Dutch man prevented a disaster.
The terrorist was flagged as dangerous, but was not searched prior to boarding the plane. Now she covers her ass by having everyone searched. How ridiculous !
These clowns in government didn't even revoke the terrorist's visa. What the hell is going on ?
From today's WSJ: "The warning by Mr. Abdulmutallab's father should have been combined with information from airline personnel, such the suspect's purchase of his ticket with cash and his carrying only a backpack for an international flight. That behavioral profile "doesn't mean he should be on the no-fly list, but he should be checked out," the counterterrorism official said."
Napolitano was the fool who last spring said that returning US war veterans were a risk for terrorism.
Now they impose intrusive searches on everyone coming to the US. That's the typical leftist proto-fascist response. Don't identify and target the likely terrorists. Waste billions searching everyone in the name of "fairness".
Hey Barry ! Get you butt off those Hawaiian beaches and fire her ! Get a real leader for that job.
Actions
I bought a short ladder of puts on the S&P 500 - the January expiration puts on SPY with strikes at 110 and 113. My 1-2-3 Fund is now about 300% short effectively from the option deltas. If the year end / year beginning drop does not occur, I'll roll them into longer term puts that have more staying power.
Word of the Day
"Rapscallion" - noun [$10] archaic or jocular; from "The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn" by Mark Twain.
Rapscallion means a rascal scamp, or rogue.
Sentence: Congress is full of rapscallions whose only actions are lining their own pockets and those of their supporters with or by means of tax money.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Musicals
On the drive to SE Ohio & back, Mrs. B & I listened to a CD course titled, Great American Music: Broadway Musicals, from The Teaching Company [ http://www.teach12.com/ ]. The course was excellent, covering musicals from minstrel shows dating to almost 200 years ago to some current Broadway productions. Plenty of original recordings were part of the course, and the professor is a superb pianist who played many more songs with considerable skill. If you like musicals, give it a try.
From the course one can easily conclude that without the contributions of Black and Jewish people, American musical theatre would have been a fraction of its greatness; that conclusion might apply to American music on the whole, too.
Last evening we watched Golddiggers of 1933, that fine Busby Berkeley movie starring Dick Powell, Ruby Keeler and Joan Blondell. Lots of fund, great songs, beautiful girls and a happy ending. What more could one want in a movie !
Markets
The S&P popped up out of an ascending triangle pattern. My gut says its a fake out, to be hit by selling once the beefers book their fees for the year. A weekly chart shows, however, that a move to 1200 is possible in a buying climax.
I don't like the passage of ObamaCare, but the Copenhagen crater outweighs it longer term. Slow growth in the US is possible longer term, but unemployment will be a huge drag for years now. Firms large and especially small will be hugely motivated to shift more & more to machines and overseas production.
For the 1-2-3 Fund, I intend to buy some S&P puts today as a starter. I need to explore how to best implement my 2010 speculative outlook, which is a grinding pullback for at least six months, maybe until the election in November.
Word of the Day
"Toady" - noun & verb [$10]
Toady means (noun) a sycophant, an obsequious hanger-on; (verb - transitive) to behave servilely to, fawn upon; (verb - intransitive) same as for transitive, but followed by "to"
Sentence: When will the media stop being toady to Obama ?
From the course one can easily conclude that without the contributions of Black and Jewish people, American musical theatre would have been a fraction of its greatness; that conclusion might apply to American music on the whole, too.
Last evening we watched Golddiggers of 1933, that fine Busby Berkeley movie starring Dick Powell, Ruby Keeler and Joan Blondell. Lots of fund, great songs, beautiful girls and a happy ending. What more could one want in a movie !
Markets
The S&P popped up out of an ascending triangle pattern. My gut says its a fake out, to be hit by selling once the beefers book their fees for the year. A weekly chart shows, however, that a move to 1200 is possible in a buying climax.
I don't like the passage of ObamaCare, but the Copenhagen crater outweighs it longer term. Slow growth in the US is possible longer term, but unemployment will be a huge drag for years now. Firms large and especially small will be hugely motivated to shift more & more to machines and overseas production.
For the 1-2-3 Fund, I intend to buy some S&P puts today as a starter. I need to explore how to best implement my 2010 speculative outlook, which is a grinding pullback for at least six months, maybe until the election in November.
Word of the Day
"Toady" - noun & verb [$10]
Toady means (noun) a sycophant, an obsequious hanger-on; (verb - transitive) to behave servilely to, fawn upon; (verb - intransitive) same as for transitive, but followed by "to"
Sentence: When will the media stop being toady to Obama ?
Sunday, December 27, 2009
World's Finest Martini - a reprise
As requested, here again is my World's Finest Martini recipe. Take three parts gin, one part vodka, one part white Lillet, and one lemon twist, mix in a shaker with lots of ice, and serve on ice. This is derived from the original James Bond martini recipe in Ian Fleming's book, "Casino Royale". I prefer more Lillet than Bond ordered. I've taught the bartenders at a club where I stay on business trips to New York City to make my recipe - we call it, "Golden Kryptonite". I keep my gin & vodka in the freezer door in pint bottles and my Lillet in the refrigerator so they are very cold. I also make up an entire weekend's supply (three stiff drinks, one each for Friday, Saturday and Sunday evenings) in a cocktail mixer on Friday and put the second two days' drinks in a large, thick glass (no ice) covered with plastic wrap in the freezer to store.
White Lillet is a French appertif wine. No need ot use any particularly fine gin or vodka - the Lillet and lemon provide the flavor. I use Gordon's for both, of course, since that is what Bond specified. The name, "Golden Kryptonite" fits since if you drink too much, you will be numbed as Superman was with gold Kryptonite.
White Lillet is a French appertif wine. No need ot use any particularly fine gin or vodka - the Lillet and lemon provide the flavor. I use Gordon's for both, of course, since that is what Bond specified. The name, "Golden Kryptonite" fits since if you drink too much, you will be numbed as Superman was with gold Kryptonite.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
A Win for the Common Man
The US papers are unreliable, being pumpsters of Obama, but here are the comments on Copenhagen from the French press.
Le Figaro: "Climat: Copenhague s'achève sur un échec" meaning "Climate: Copenhagen ends on a failure"
That's a win for the common man. Let's hope all these global warming "deals" continue to disintegrate.
Le Figaro: "Climat: Copenhague s'achève sur un échec" meaning "Climate: Copenhagen ends on a failure"
That's a win for the common man. Let's hope all these global warming "deals" continue to disintegrate.
Friday, December 18, 2009
More ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ...
Overslept again.
My dog, Spikie, requires a good bit more care now, so that means I get less unbroken sleep.
Today is a triple -witching day, so could be whippy.
Futures are up a bit now this AM.
I will not post next week, as I will be in my hometown in Ohio. It's a long drive. Mrs. B and I need to pick out some CD course or two, or a book or two, for joint listening. Ahh ... the compromises of marriage !
I'm hoping for two fine Christmas gifts for the common man: a dual cratering of Copenhagen and ObamaCare.
Word of the Day
"Copacetic" - adjective [$10]
Copacetic means very satisfactory.
Sentence: A most copacetic gift for the common man for the holidays would be a dual collapse of Copenhagen and ObamaCare. Oh please, Santa !!
My dog, Spikie, requires a good bit more care now, so that means I get less unbroken sleep.
Today is a triple -witching day, so could be whippy.
Futures are up a bit now this AM.
I will not post next week, as I will be in my hometown in Ohio. It's a long drive. Mrs. B and I need to pick out some CD course or two, or a book or two, for joint listening. Ahh ... the compromises of marriage !
I'm hoping for two fine Christmas gifts for the common man: a dual cratering of Copenhagen and ObamaCare.
Word of the Day
"Copacetic" - adjective [$10]
Copacetic means very satisfactory.
Sentence: A most copacetic gift for the common man for the holidays would be a dual collapse of Copenhagen and ObamaCare. Oh please, Santa !!
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Zzzzzzzzzzzz ...
I overslept, so not much today.
Stock futures are down, the dollar is up.
C stock sale flopped ... no surprise that few would want its shares except at a large discount.
The ClimateGate scandal rolls on. With access now to the actual raw data - previously kept secret by the scientists - others auditing the numbers find huge manipulation and outright doctoring of the numbers. Anything not fitting the "picture" was tossed out. What a scandal ! I wonder if anyone will ever trust the scientific community again ?
It's too bad such a protected clique of money-grubbing and power-grubbing swine have now discredited the entire profession. But the signs were obvious to anyone looking. When secrecy and ad hominem attacks rule, any thinking person knows they are hiding something.
Here's a quote from a website that covers Russian language newspapers.
***Quote begins***
Climategate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data.
The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory.
Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country's territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations. The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.
The HadCRUT database includes specific stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than stations facilitating uninterrupted observations. On the whole, climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations. IEA analysts say climatologists use the data of stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations.
The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world's land mass. The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to assess the scale of such exaggeration.
***Quote Ends***
Much more and other links are available on http://climateaudit.org/
Word of the Day
"Caconym" - noun [$100]
Caconym means a name, especially a taxonomic name, that is considered linguistically undesirable.
Sentence: Ever since the famous WaterGate affair, the American language has been burdened with that ugly caconym, the -gate suffix - for any public scandal. Yuck! French would provide much better names. Compare ClimateGate to L'affaire de climat. The French name would be much more interesting - even a bit suggestive.
Stock futures are down, the dollar is up.
C stock sale flopped ... no surprise that few would want its shares except at a large discount.
The ClimateGate scandal rolls on. With access now to the actual raw data - previously kept secret by the scientists - others auditing the numbers find huge manipulation and outright doctoring of the numbers. Anything not fitting the "picture" was tossed out. What a scandal ! I wonder if anyone will ever trust the scientific community again ?
It's too bad such a protected clique of money-grubbing and power-grubbing swine have now discredited the entire profession. But the signs were obvious to anyone looking. When secrecy and ad hominem attacks rule, any thinking person knows they are hiding something.
Here's a quote from a website that covers Russian language newspapers.
***Quote begins***
Climategate has already affected Russia. On Tuesday, the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data.
The IEA believes that Russian meteorological-station data did not substantiate the anthropogenic global-warming theory.
Analysts say Russian meteorological stations cover most of the country's territory, and that the Hadley Center had used data submitted by only 25% of such stations in its reports. Over 40% of Russian territory was not included in global-temperature calculations for some other reasons, rather than the lack of meteorological stations and observations. The data of stations located in areas not listed in the Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature UK (HadCRUT) survey often does not show any substantial warming in the late 20th century and the early 21st century.
The HadCRUT database includes specific stations providing incomplete data and highlighting the global-warming process, rather than stations facilitating uninterrupted observations. On the whole, climatologists use the incomplete findings of meteorological stations far more often than those providing complete observations. IEA analysts say climatologists use the data of stations located in large populated centers that are influenced by the urban-warming effect more frequently than the correct data of remote stations.
The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world's land mass. The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to assess the scale of such exaggeration.
***Quote Ends***
Much more and other links are available on http://climateaudit.org/
Word of the Day
"Caconym" - noun [$100]
Caconym means a name, especially a taxonomic name, that is considered linguistically undesirable.
Sentence: Ever since the famous WaterGate affair, the American language has been burdened with that ugly caconym, the -gate suffix - for any public scandal. Yuck! French would provide much better names. Compare ClimateGate to L'affaire de climat. The French name would be much more interesting - even a bit suggestive.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Another Blank Wednesday
As usual for Wednesdays, nothing is happening. I await in hope for a double cratering of ObamaCare and Copenhagen. In both cases the ruling classes are frantically trying to hide the lies and sheer bunco scams in those efforts in order to slip something through as a "start" to get more power for themselves over the common man.
Actions
My speculative urges are rather tepid at these prices in the markets. Lots of buying power is being consumed for small gains. The resistance seems rather strong here. Good news produces few new buyers. Again, on a pop higher, I'll try to find short sale plays. And on a serious dip, I'll do some speculative buying. Otherwise, I'll enjoy the holidays.
Languages
Polish verbs aren't as hard as I had first thought. German word order is still a big problem. Italian is a joy; I've upgraded my efforts there. French listening and speaking skill is rapidly improving now. Spanish is still at the back of the bus - I just don't enjoy it much. Latin progress is rapid, too; I really like these pithy quotations in Latin from antiquity.
Word of the Day
"Hyperesthesia" - noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Hyperesthesia means an excessive physical sensibility, esp. of the skin.
Sentence: Many [Most ?] Americans have a mental hyperesthesia towards arbitrary or unexplained commands and orders. Whether this is passed through the generations as a cultural meme, or is some deep genetic difference in behavior, is unknown. But it's there, no doubt.
Actions
My speculative urges are rather tepid at these prices in the markets. Lots of buying power is being consumed for small gains. The resistance seems rather strong here. Good news produces few new buyers. Again, on a pop higher, I'll try to find short sale plays. And on a serious dip, I'll do some speculative buying. Otherwise, I'll enjoy the holidays.
Languages
Polish verbs aren't as hard as I had first thought. German word order is still a big problem. Italian is a joy; I've upgraded my efforts there. French listening and speaking skill is rapidly improving now. Spanish is still at the back of the bus - I just don't enjoy it much. Latin progress is rapid, too; I really like these pithy quotations in Latin from antiquity.
Word of the Day
"Hyperesthesia" - noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Hyperesthesia means an excessive physical sensibility, esp. of the skin.
Sentence: Many [Most ?] Americans have a mental hyperesthesia towards arbitrary or unexplained commands and orders. Whether this is passed through the generations as a cultural meme, or is some deep genetic difference in behavior, is unknown. But it's there, no doubt.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
From Where Can Inflation Come ?
Many doomsayers point to the Fed's large balance sheet and screech, Inflation's A'comin !
Yup, I'm imitating Huck Finn a bit there with the country dialect. I think that's wrong for several reasons. Strict focus on the supply of money ignores the demand for money. What is the correct absolute level of the monetary base now ? That depends on the demand for money in the economy and its velocity. Behavior has changed, mooting much historical data now. Many, many people will certainly hold more cash now that they did in the past. The new level of the monetary base must accommodate that demand for cash or cause stagnation for no purpose.
Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. Demand and supply both matter. If money is demanded and hoarded simply for safety, then, ipso facto, such money is not used to demand goods or services. Whether the current Fed policy will cause future inflation is not now determined. Simply put, it depends on future actions.
BUT what about supply ? Two major decisions loom that will curtail new growth in the supply for goods and services. Those are ObamaCare and Copenhagen. Both can be major barriers to increasing the supply of goods and services in the US and worldwide. If implemented in a strong manner, long term inflation pressure is certain worldwide. Stagnation could occur alternatively, but I think that governments worldwide will not choose that. They will print more and more money to create a fasçade of prosperity. That would produce worldwide inflation.
What to do ?
Keep some long term money in TIPs and gold (metal, ETFs and mine stocks). Now I keep 12.5% of Krypto Fund in TIPs and 5% in gold. I'll increase those positions in Krypto Fund on dips IF both ObamaCare and Copenhagen move forward. I'll rest easier if they collapse.
Historically, real estate has performed very well in inflation, too. Now I keep 15% of Krypto Fund in real estate, but the share is effectively about 25% due to internal leverage in the funds I must use. I added to those positions a lot when REIT prices were very low. Now I'm shifting some money from the more leveraged REITs [via the Vanguard ETF - "VNQ"] to the real estate fund at TIAA which has less leverage. It invests directly in major buildings and seems rather uncorrelated to REIT stock prices. As they've rallied, the TIAA-RE fund has fallen. I made a shift to "sell high, buy low". I figure the stock market is forecasting higher prices for commercial real estate in the future, hence the higher REIT stock prices. But the TIAA-RE fund is priced off current market values of buildings. So I can sell real estate at higher anticipated prices through selling the REIT ETF and buy actual RE at current low prices, To me, it's an arbitrage - free money - if one has the flexibility to make the trade. I did this trade in a big way in Krypto Fund late last week.
I write this just to say what I am doing and show how I think. I'm not sure if the TIAA real estate fund is open to the public. Mrs. B was a scientist, so put a lot of retirement money into TIAA-CREF retirement funds. That's how we can invest in TIAA-RE fund. Another thing. You cannot withdraw money from TIAA-RE fund for re-allocations, only for true retirement income. That means I keep the money in it at a core level only.
Word of the Day
"Trammel" - noun and verb [$10]; from the card file
Trammel means (noun) a net for catching birds; 2. an adjustable pothook for a fireplace crane; 3. a shackle used for making a horse amble; 4. something impeding activity, progress or freedom: restraint (usually in the plural); (verb) to catch or hold in or as if in a net; 2. to prevent or impede the free play of.
Sentence: ObamaCare and Copenhagen will substantially trammel the US and world economies. By reducing the capability to produce more and more goods and services, both will be a force to increase inflation in both the US and the world.
Yup, I'm imitating Huck Finn a bit there with the country dialect. I think that's wrong for several reasons. Strict focus on the supply of money ignores the demand for money. What is the correct absolute level of the monetary base now ? That depends on the demand for money in the economy and its velocity. Behavior has changed, mooting much historical data now. Many, many people will certainly hold more cash now that they did in the past. The new level of the monetary base must accommodate that demand for cash or cause stagnation for no purpose.
Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. Demand and supply both matter. If money is demanded and hoarded simply for safety, then, ipso facto, such money is not used to demand goods or services. Whether the current Fed policy will cause future inflation is not now determined. Simply put, it depends on future actions.
BUT what about supply ? Two major decisions loom that will curtail new growth in the supply for goods and services. Those are ObamaCare and Copenhagen. Both can be major barriers to increasing the supply of goods and services in the US and worldwide. If implemented in a strong manner, long term inflation pressure is certain worldwide. Stagnation could occur alternatively, but I think that governments worldwide will not choose that. They will print more and more money to create a fasçade of prosperity. That would produce worldwide inflation.
What to do ?
Keep some long term money in TIPs and gold (metal, ETFs and mine stocks). Now I keep 12.5% of Krypto Fund in TIPs and 5% in gold. I'll increase those positions in Krypto Fund on dips IF both ObamaCare and Copenhagen move forward. I'll rest easier if they collapse.
Historically, real estate has performed very well in inflation, too. Now I keep 15% of Krypto Fund in real estate, but the share is effectively about 25% due to internal leverage in the funds I must use. I added to those positions a lot when REIT prices were very low. Now I'm shifting some money from the more leveraged REITs [via the Vanguard ETF - "VNQ"] to the real estate fund at TIAA which has less leverage. It invests directly in major buildings and seems rather uncorrelated to REIT stock prices. As they've rallied, the TIAA-RE fund has fallen. I made a shift to "sell high, buy low". I figure the stock market is forecasting higher prices for commercial real estate in the future, hence the higher REIT stock prices. But the TIAA-RE fund is priced off current market values of buildings. So I can sell real estate at higher anticipated prices through selling the REIT ETF and buy actual RE at current low prices, To me, it's an arbitrage - free money - if one has the flexibility to make the trade. I did this trade in a big way in Krypto Fund late last week.
I write this just to say what I am doing and show how I think. I'm not sure if the TIAA real estate fund is open to the public. Mrs. B was a scientist, so put a lot of retirement money into TIAA-CREF retirement funds. That's how we can invest in TIAA-RE fund. Another thing. You cannot withdraw money from TIAA-RE fund for re-allocations, only for true retirement income. That means I keep the money in it at a core level only.
Word of the Day
"Trammel" - noun and verb [$10]; from the card file
Trammel means (noun) a net for catching birds; 2. an adjustable pothook for a fireplace crane; 3. a shackle used for making a horse amble; 4. something impeding activity, progress or freedom: restraint (usually in the plural); (verb) to catch or hold in or as if in a net; 2. to prevent or impede the free play of.
Sentence: ObamaCare and Copenhagen will substantially trammel the US and world economies. By reducing the capability to produce more and more goods and services, both will be a force to increase inflation in both the US and the world.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Copenhagen Cluster FUBAR
The media airwaves continue to gush over the ruling classes meeting in Copenhagen to discuss how they can foist more economic oppression onto the common man. That's after information got out that the scientists were fabricating the data and hiding contrary evidence in order to ensure their own gravy train of money for "research".
The real story is yet to come out, as the media air heads write about quotes from top scientists admitting lies and hiding evidence. The real story is in the computer codes and those related e-mails that show they were doctoring data at the deepest levels to produce only "pro-warming" results. That entire field is rife with corruption in search of more and more government funding. They even admit fabricating scare stories in public to get more grant money.
All I want for Christmas is simply a collapse at Copenhagen for whatever reason. I suspect money will cause it. With the current economic situation, the wealthier countries know they can't get their voters to sent big money to the poorest nations to help them develop without existing energy sources. They might put something on paper that will be vague and full of holes. But I think that's all that will come about. That's my hope.
Actions
IFF Copenhagen collapses AND ObamaCare, too, I will become longer term bullish again.
For now I see no trading buys or sells that have a good risk-reward profile. I admit I'm not looking too hard. I'll be out all next week, so will not want big, risky positions on my books then anyway.
Uh ... what's going on with the dollar ? I thought it was consigned to the graveyard by the doomsters. Could it be that signs of economic strength in the US are bringing in demand ? Hmm ... where was that posted a few months ago ? One guess.
This is an intermediate term rally. Longer term, the dollar must go down versus all those exporter countries in Asia and other places. They've been riding on the back of the US consumer for decades. That has to balance out.
I read that a large amount of profits at large US multinational companies come from emerging markets. Good. That gave me some more comfort that I have enough exposure to those markets.
Book of the Week
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, by Mark Twain, in AUDIO version. Mine is a BBC audio narrated by Patrick Fraley. I am now 45% through this book and I recommend it highly. The AUDIO version. The dialects of the characters are part of the crucial value of the book. An audio version produced by a good actor reading the book gives you this. Reading it in print will not.
The setting is the Mississippi river area around Illinois and Missouri circa 1830-1840. The adventures of Huck Finn bring out the culture of that regions and major issues such as freedom, slavery, and oppression, and the riverboat culture of that huge region in the US that had existed for decades as the nation moved west from the Appalachian regions to the Great Plains.
US western culture then was hard drinking, hard fisted, rough and tumble and lots of braggadocio and bombast - the bowie knife and whisky culture of people coping in relatively primitive areas. Histories give you the raw facts. This novel puts a human side onto it.
Word of the Day
Ululate - verb, intransitive [$10]
Ululate means to howl, wail.
Sentence: The Greenies will ululate unceasingly if the Copenhagen circus craters; that will be music to my ears.
The real story is yet to come out, as the media air heads write about quotes from top scientists admitting lies and hiding evidence. The real story is in the computer codes and those related e-mails that show they were doctoring data at the deepest levels to produce only "pro-warming" results. That entire field is rife with corruption in search of more and more government funding. They even admit fabricating scare stories in public to get more grant money.
All I want for Christmas is simply a collapse at Copenhagen for whatever reason. I suspect money will cause it. With the current economic situation, the wealthier countries know they can't get their voters to sent big money to the poorest nations to help them develop without existing energy sources. They might put something on paper that will be vague and full of holes. But I think that's all that will come about. That's my hope.
Actions
IFF Copenhagen collapses AND ObamaCare, too, I will become longer term bullish again.
For now I see no trading buys or sells that have a good risk-reward profile. I admit I'm not looking too hard. I'll be out all next week, so will not want big, risky positions on my books then anyway.
Uh ... what's going on with the dollar ? I thought it was consigned to the graveyard by the doomsters. Could it be that signs of economic strength in the US are bringing in demand ? Hmm ... where was that posted a few months ago ? One guess.
This is an intermediate term rally. Longer term, the dollar must go down versus all those exporter countries in Asia and other places. They've been riding on the back of the US consumer for decades. That has to balance out.
I read that a large amount of profits at large US multinational companies come from emerging markets. Good. That gave me some more comfort that I have enough exposure to those markets.
Book of the Week
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, by Mark Twain, in AUDIO version. Mine is a BBC audio narrated by Patrick Fraley. I am now 45% through this book and I recommend it highly. The AUDIO version. The dialects of the characters are part of the crucial value of the book. An audio version produced by a good actor reading the book gives you this. Reading it in print will not.
The setting is the Mississippi river area around Illinois and Missouri circa 1830-1840. The adventures of Huck Finn bring out the culture of that regions and major issues such as freedom, slavery, and oppression, and the riverboat culture of that huge region in the US that had existed for decades as the nation moved west from the Appalachian regions to the Great Plains.
US western culture then was hard drinking, hard fisted, rough and tumble and lots of braggadocio and bombast - the bowie knife and whisky culture of people coping in relatively primitive areas. Histories give you the raw facts. This novel puts a human side onto it.
Word of the Day
Ululate - verb, intransitive [$10]
Ululate means to howl, wail.
Sentence: The Greenies will ululate unceasingly if the Copenhagen circus craters; that will be music to my ears.
Friday, December 11, 2009
La Grande Bouche
The Big Mouth, aka The Bloviator in Chief spewed forth much blether [*Word of the Day] yesterday at his acceptance speech for the Nobel Peace Prize. Here's a link ->
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/10/barack-obama-nobel-acceptance-speech
It's full of nonsense and rhetorical flourishes ... and self-justification - not unexpected.
Obama sees himself not as President of the whole United States of America, but as the chairman of a mass movement - the Democratic National Committee. This is why he is unwilling to compromise. He wants conflict to gain votes and money to help the "party" remain in power. Listening to his recent speech about jobs, I was struck how he inserted several jabs (three, I believe) against the opposition party. He doesn't try to craft workable programs based on reality; he bases his message on slogans and rhetoric.
This is why he has done nothing to lead - truly lead - Congress towards a workable reform of the health care system. He's let Congress create a 2,000 page monstrosity. He doesn't really care what the result is, so long as his party can claim victory in next year's elections.
Does anyone not wonder why it took Obama about three months to make a decision on his Afghan war "strategy" ? He had no idea what to do, so lots of people talked and met and talked and met and in the end put together a rather weak, flabby "strategy". I think he did that just because the media started to question his "leadership" on the grounds that it sure was taking a long time.
I suppose this should be no surprise; afterall, his first "job" out of college was to be a community organizer. He's still acting like one.
Actions
Zippo. I don't think there will be many buyers higher, so this rally will stall.
Word of the Day
"Blether" - noun, verb [$100] variant of blather
Blether means (noun) nonsense; (verb) to jabber blether.
Sentence: The Nobel Peace Prize committee got in Obama's speech what it valued: much blethering spewing forth more blether.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/10/barack-obama-nobel-acceptance-speech
It's full of nonsense and rhetorical flourishes ... and self-justification - not unexpected.
Obama sees himself not as President of the whole United States of America, but as the chairman of a mass movement - the Democratic National Committee. This is why he is unwilling to compromise. He wants conflict to gain votes and money to help the "party" remain in power. Listening to his recent speech about jobs, I was struck how he inserted several jabs (three, I believe) against the opposition party. He doesn't try to craft workable programs based on reality; he bases his message on slogans and rhetoric.
This is why he has done nothing to lead - truly lead - Congress towards a workable reform of the health care system. He's let Congress create a 2,000 page monstrosity. He doesn't really care what the result is, so long as his party can claim victory in next year's elections.
Does anyone not wonder why it took Obama about three months to make a decision on his Afghan war "strategy" ? He had no idea what to do, so lots of people talked and met and talked and met and in the end put together a rather weak, flabby "strategy". I think he did that just because the media started to question his "leadership" on the grounds that it sure was taking a long time.
I suppose this should be no surprise; afterall, his first "job" out of college was to be a community organizer. He's still acting like one.
Actions
Zippo. I don't think there will be many buyers higher, so this rally will stall.
Word of the Day
"Blether" - noun, verb [$100] variant of blather
Blether means (noun) nonsense; (verb) to jabber blether.
Sentence: The Nobel Peace Prize committee got in Obama's speech what it valued: much blethering spewing forth more blether.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Another New Feature
I intend to write about the CD and DVD courses that I complete. All are from The Teaching Company [ see http://www.teach12.com/ ]. I buy them on sale at what seems to me quite reasonable prices. I concentrate on its offerings in the humanities: philosophy, literature, history, and religion. The science and math courses don't interest me as I have such an extensive background in those areas. But the humanities were an area neglected for years, and I am now enjoying myself filling that vacant space in half my brain.
I mainly buy the CD versions, unless the course is art or about a part of the world where I don't know the geography or places. The CD works best since I like to listen in the car driving my dog Sky to sheep herding classes.
A few days ago I finished How to Read and Understand Poetry. The course was excellent - covering many aspects of how a poem is constructed and how the poet makes his/her points. All this technical knowledge helps one appreciate the poetry as a poem, and not simply to read it as prose to figure out its meaning. The professor in fact said "meaning" is one of the least important parts of a poem, as most poems are about traditional subjects such as love, loss, death, heroism, etc.
In my opinion, one must read a poem out loud, preferably twice, to absorb its value. Human language and thinking developed over tens of thousands of years orally, so poetry captures a crucial part of languages' communication dimension. And literature for the first few thousands of years was all poetry. To me, then, it's self-evident that a good technical knowledge of poetry is crucial to having a deep understanding of humanity.
This course helped me immensely. One must buy The Norton Anthology of Poetry to get the most of the course. All poems covered in the lectures are included in the anthology [except very few]. I read them all after reviewing the course notes provided, certainly thus reading more poetry that I had done prior in my entire life.
I recommend this course to anyone seeking to diversify one's knowledge in the humanities.
PS: Another excellent course I'm now watching on DVD is Dutch Masters: The Age of Rembrandt, in preparation for a trip to Amsterdam this spring.
Actions
Nothing - still sitting in the shade, waiting for a trend.
Word of the Day
"Tocsin" - noun [$10]
Tocsin means 1. an alarm bell or the ringing of it; 2. a warning signal
Sentence: No one sounds a tocsin when the market herd begins to head to a new waterhole; one must watch the signs and portents to see it and climb onto the elephant in time to ride along.
I mainly buy the CD versions, unless the course is art or about a part of the world where I don't know the geography or places. The CD works best since I like to listen in the car driving my dog Sky to sheep herding classes.
A few days ago I finished How to Read and Understand Poetry. The course was excellent - covering many aspects of how a poem is constructed and how the poet makes his/her points. All this technical knowledge helps one appreciate the poetry as a poem, and not simply to read it as prose to figure out its meaning. The professor in fact said "meaning" is one of the least important parts of a poem, as most poems are about traditional subjects such as love, loss, death, heroism, etc.
In my opinion, one must read a poem out loud, preferably twice, to absorb its value. Human language and thinking developed over tens of thousands of years orally, so poetry captures a crucial part of languages' communication dimension. And literature for the first few thousands of years was all poetry. To me, then, it's self-evident that a good technical knowledge of poetry is crucial to having a deep understanding of humanity.
This course helped me immensely. One must buy The Norton Anthology of Poetry to get the most of the course. All poems covered in the lectures are included in the anthology [except very few]. I read them all after reviewing the course notes provided, certainly thus reading more poetry that I had done prior in my entire life.
I recommend this course to anyone seeking to diversify one's knowledge in the humanities.
PS: Another excellent course I'm now watching on DVD is Dutch Masters: The Age of Rembrandt, in preparation for a trip to Amsterdam this spring.
Actions
Nothing - still sitting in the shade, waiting for a trend.
Word of the Day
"Tocsin" - noun [$10]
Tocsin means 1. an alarm bell or the ringing of it; 2. a warning signal
Sentence: No one sounds a tocsin when the market herd begins to head to a new waterhole; one must watch the signs and portents to see it and climb onto the elephant in time to ride along.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
What to Do IF ...
The worst happens: a nuclear strike occurs near you. Depending on the size, "near" might mean a mile or 20 miles.
The following information comes from a pocket card provided by http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/ which can be reproduced and distributed freely. The organization encourages just that. Thank you, Mrs. B, for giving me mine.
To quote from the card, "These principles were developed during nuclear weapons tests test the 1940s -1960s and remain valid today ! The laws of physics do not change."
You should learn this training - it's not complex and even seems obvious once you understand them and the principles behind them. If you don't survive the first minute, first hour or first day, all the rest of one's preparedness means nothing.
***Quote begins***
60 SECOND NUCLEAR DETONATION
TRAINING FOR FIRST RESPONDERS
A.
Drop & cover when you see a flash. Stay down behind cover for two full minutes. Even covering with a newspaper can prevent burns. Keep eyes closed during bright light to prevent blindness.
B.
7 / 10 Rule: Fallout loses 90% of its radioactivity in the first 7 hours after a detonation and an additional 90% for every 7-fold increase in time: 90% in the first seven hours; 90% in 49 hours (two days) and 99.9% in two weeks.
C.
Fallout looks like sand, ash or grit as it falls and accumulates on the ground. If no fallout is visible on the ground, there is no radiation ! To be sure, place a piece of smooth white paper, a dinner plate or anything with a smooth surface on the ground & check every 15 minutes for fallout particles.
If visual indications of fallout appear take shelter for two or three days underground or behind thick walls. (These tips are generally true.)
This card may be the only nuclear training you get. Knowing A, B, & C can protect your life and your department.
Give a card to each emergency responder in your jurisdiction.
***Quote ends***
Actions
Doing nothing, waiting in the shade for the herd to start moving out.
Word of the Day
"Carapace" - noun [$10]
Carapace means a protective outer coating.
Sentence: There is nothing in the world like the light of a nuclear explosion - literally, in its spectrum and awesome intensity. But it is still light and any carapace can protect you from severe burns that it would otherwise cause very severe burns.
The following information comes from a pocket card provided by http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/ which can be reproduced and distributed freely. The organization encourages just that. Thank you, Mrs. B, for giving me mine.
To quote from the card, "These principles were developed during nuclear weapons tests test the 1940s -1960s and remain valid today ! The laws of physics do not change."
You should learn this training - it's not complex and even seems obvious once you understand them and the principles behind them. If you don't survive the first minute, first hour or first day, all the rest of one's preparedness means nothing.
***Quote begins***
60 SECOND NUCLEAR DETONATION
TRAINING FOR FIRST RESPONDERS
A.
Drop & cover when you see a flash. Stay down behind cover for two full minutes. Even covering with a newspaper can prevent burns. Keep eyes closed during bright light to prevent blindness.
B.
7 / 10 Rule: Fallout loses 90% of its radioactivity in the first 7 hours after a detonation and an additional 90% for every 7-fold increase in time: 90% in the first seven hours; 90% in 49 hours (two days) and 99.9% in two weeks.
C.
Fallout looks like sand, ash or grit as it falls and accumulates on the ground. If no fallout is visible on the ground, there is no radiation ! To be sure, place a piece of smooth white paper, a dinner plate or anything with a smooth surface on the ground & check every 15 minutes for fallout particles.
If visual indications of fallout appear take shelter for two or three days underground or behind thick walls. (These tips are generally true.)
This card may be the only nuclear training you get. Knowing A, B, & C can protect your life and your department.
Give a card to each emergency responder in your jurisdiction.
***Quote ends***
Actions
Doing nothing, waiting in the shade for the herd to start moving out.
Word of the Day
"Carapace" - noun [$10]
Carapace means a protective outer coating.
Sentence: There is nothing in the world like the light of a nuclear explosion - literally, in its spectrum and awesome intensity. But it is still light and any carapace can protect you from severe burns that it would otherwise cause very severe burns.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Death Star
This station is now the ultimate power in the universe. I suggest we use it. [from Star Wars]
That's what Obama is thinking about his new Death Star, the EPA. His Death Star went on line yesterday, declaring that all human and animal life is a pollutant. Yes, that is what they did. All humans and animals breathe. That is pollution being created. Exhalation pushes that newly deemed deadly poison, carbon dioxide, into the air. Human and animal life are aerobic creatures. They use oxygen to produce energy for warmth and motion. Carbon dioxide is one by-product. YOU are a deadly polluter and must be regulated.
Now witness the firepower of this fully ARMED and OPERATIONAL battle station!
[The Emperor in Return of the Jedi]
American jobs and lifestyle are the target for Obama's Death Star. He doesn't need Congress now. He can rule by the bureaucracy and enforce his will with the EPA, court injunctions and Federal marshals.
YOU, the American polluter, are guilty and must be punished. You shall be cold in winter, suffer in heat in summer and work with your hands in hard labor, without labor saving tools. Living in remote areas will now be nearly impossible, except in a naturalist lifestyle as the pioneers did. Travel will be restricted - planes and long distance car travel will likely become uneconomical.
American jobs will go in a new wave to China and other emerging markets as those nations will receive US tax dollars as compensation.
The Green movement will need a continual stream of victims to punish to ensure its power. Anyone or any job that is deemed to use energy inefficiently [i. e., not "needed" as they deem "need"] will be suffer opprobrium first, then the Death Star will strangle them/it with permits and bans.
I suppose you think I jest. Not really. All this will happen if the public continues to vote stupidly, for the same old ruling classes. We all might have to re-live the 1970s stagnation, or much worse.
Addendum
What is not a polluting environment ? That would be one dominated by anaerobic processes which do not produce that newly designated poison, carbon dioxide. Read the recent Book of the Week, Black Sea by Neal Ascherson. The lower layer of the Black Sea is an anaerobic environment. and completely lifeless.
Actions
Je ne fais rien.
Ich machte nichts.
Nic nie robię.
Estoy haciendo nada.
Non faccio nulla.
Nihil facio.
I am doing nothing.
I plan to short stocks higher, or buy lower. Here at these levels, the risk-reward profile is poor, in my opinion.
Word of the Day
"Brio" - noun [$10] from Italian
Brio means dash, vigor, vivacity
Sentence: Obama's Death Star will crush the brio of the American people and economy over time, reducing them to serfs on manors of the ruling classes
That's what Obama is thinking about his new Death Star, the EPA. His Death Star went on line yesterday, declaring that all human and animal life is a pollutant. Yes, that is what they did. All humans and animals breathe. That is pollution being created. Exhalation pushes that newly deemed deadly poison, carbon dioxide, into the air. Human and animal life are aerobic creatures. They use oxygen to produce energy for warmth and motion. Carbon dioxide is one by-product. YOU are a deadly polluter and must be regulated.
Now witness the firepower of this fully ARMED and OPERATIONAL battle station!
[The Emperor in Return of the Jedi]
American jobs and lifestyle are the target for Obama's Death Star. He doesn't need Congress now. He can rule by the bureaucracy and enforce his will with the EPA, court injunctions and Federal marshals.
YOU, the American polluter, are guilty and must be punished. You shall be cold in winter, suffer in heat in summer and work with your hands in hard labor, without labor saving tools. Living in remote areas will now be nearly impossible, except in a naturalist lifestyle as the pioneers did. Travel will be restricted - planes and long distance car travel will likely become uneconomical.
American jobs will go in a new wave to China and other emerging markets as those nations will receive US tax dollars as compensation.
The Green movement will need a continual stream of victims to punish to ensure its power. Anyone or any job that is deemed to use energy inefficiently [i. e., not "needed" as they deem "need"] will be suffer opprobrium first, then the Death Star will strangle them/it with permits and bans.
I suppose you think I jest. Not really. All this will happen if the public continues to vote stupidly, for the same old ruling classes. We all might have to re-live the 1970s stagnation, or much worse.
Addendum
What is not a polluting environment ? That would be one dominated by anaerobic processes which do not produce that newly designated poison, carbon dioxide. Read the recent Book of the Week, Black Sea by Neal Ascherson. The lower layer of the Black Sea is an anaerobic environment. and completely lifeless.
Actions
Je ne fais rien.
Ich machte nichts.
Nic nie robię.
Estoy haciendo nada.
Non faccio nulla.
Nihil facio.
I am doing nothing.
I plan to short stocks higher, or buy lower. Here at these levels, the risk-reward profile is poor, in my opinion.
Word of the Day
"Brio" - noun [$10] from Italian
Brio means dash, vigor, vivacity
Sentence: Obama's Death Star will crush the brio of the American people and economy over time, reducing them to serfs on manors of the ruling classes
Monday, December 7, 2009
Whither Now ?
The jobs number came in quite good, as this blog had expected. Friday was volatile as the initial rally brought out selling on the news. I was part of that selling, letting all my speculative positions go on the morning rip up. At some point, however, I think that real buyers will move cash into the market as their confidence in the economy must now be much better. I would not be surprised as a modest rally, but the major resistance at S&P 1200 looms large. Many early buyers will likely sell there, or near there.
The risk-reward is now not what my speculative juices need. I will wait in cash for better long prices lower, or short sales higher.
Long term, two major problems loom: ObamaCare and climate change regulations. Both can create major stagnation as they will divert huge resources to non-productive ends. Instead of investing for growth, business will be forced to spend more money to make the same things. This did happen in the 1970s. That period also saw inflation rise due to central bank errors. Whether the Fed makes errors, time will tell.
I've climbed off the bull elephant and now will wait in the shade for a new trend to develop.
Book of the Week
The Peasant Prince: Thaddeus Kosciuszko and the Age of Revolution by Alex Storzinski. This superb book is a biography of Thaddeus Kosciuszko, covering both his heroic deeds in the American Revolution as the chief of engineers for the American army and in his native Poland, where he led two revolutions for freedom. [Note: the 'sz' in his name is pronounced 'sh'.] The extremely well written book uses extensive original Polish source and American source material. Koscuiszko was truly devoted to freedom for all, even more so than American founding father Thomas Jefferson. Koscuiszko left his entire revolutionary war pay in trust to Jefferson, who was a personal friend, to use to buy freedom for slaves in America. He also led early efforts to free serfs in Poland, and the revolutionary constitution of May 3, 1791 is commemorated in the great Polish epic poem, Pan Taddeus.
I enjoyed the details in the book - letters preserved actual conversation in summary. Koscuiszko had personal contract with Franklin, Washington, Gates, and Greene, all authentic heroes of American Independence. I had not known the details of Koscuisko's crucial role in the Battle of Saratoga, which turned the tide and made American freedom assured as long as the nation could hold out. Without Koscuisko's engineering skill preparing the American defenses, that battle could have been lost.
Also, the book's details of his leadership roles in the revolutions in Poland against Russia and Prussia, as well as Napoleon's double dealings were fascinating. Eastern Europe is now an important part of NATO and the EU. Understanding the history of that region and its people's multi-century struggles for freedom is crucial for bridging the huge cultural gap. Kosciuszko is true pillar of strength for freedom - a hero of both America and Poland. This book should be read now by anyone serious about history.
I recommend this book highly. It is best available at Polonia Bookstore (where I purchased my copy) as http://www.polonia.com/ [Don't be intimidated by the Polish language - type 'Koscuiszko' into the site's search box and you'll see the book in the results. Or you can find it on http://www.amazon.com/
Word of the Day
"Numinous" - adjective [$10]
Numinous means 1. indicating a presence of divinity; 2. spiritual; 3. awe-inspiring.
Sentence: The opening ceremony to the Copenhagen conference on climate change tried to put a numinous glow onto its affairs, but perhaps simply added more proof that the entire affair is like a convention of a mass movement: money and power rule by a clique. Freedom of the common man and his prosperity is at serious risk there.
The risk-reward is now not what my speculative juices need. I will wait in cash for better long prices lower, or short sales higher.
Long term, two major problems loom: ObamaCare and climate change regulations. Both can create major stagnation as they will divert huge resources to non-productive ends. Instead of investing for growth, business will be forced to spend more money to make the same things. This did happen in the 1970s. That period also saw inflation rise due to central bank errors. Whether the Fed makes errors, time will tell.
I've climbed off the bull elephant and now will wait in the shade for a new trend to develop.
Book of the Week
The Peasant Prince: Thaddeus Kosciuszko and the Age of Revolution by Alex Storzinski. This superb book is a biography of Thaddeus Kosciuszko, covering both his heroic deeds in the American Revolution as the chief of engineers for the American army and in his native Poland, where he led two revolutions for freedom. [Note: the 'sz' in his name is pronounced 'sh'.] The extremely well written book uses extensive original Polish source and American source material. Koscuiszko was truly devoted to freedom for all, even more so than American founding father Thomas Jefferson. Koscuiszko left his entire revolutionary war pay in trust to Jefferson, who was a personal friend, to use to buy freedom for slaves in America. He also led early efforts to free serfs in Poland, and the revolutionary constitution of May 3, 1791 is commemorated in the great Polish epic poem, Pan Taddeus.
I enjoyed the details in the book - letters preserved actual conversation in summary. Koscuiszko had personal contract with Franklin, Washington, Gates, and Greene, all authentic heroes of American Independence. I had not known the details of Koscuisko's crucial role in the Battle of Saratoga, which turned the tide and made American freedom assured as long as the nation could hold out. Without Koscuisko's engineering skill preparing the American defenses, that battle could have been lost.
Also, the book's details of his leadership roles in the revolutions in Poland against Russia and Prussia, as well as Napoleon's double dealings were fascinating. Eastern Europe is now an important part of NATO and the EU. Understanding the history of that region and its people's multi-century struggles for freedom is crucial for bridging the huge cultural gap. Kosciuszko is true pillar of strength for freedom - a hero of both America and Poland. This book should be read now by anyone serious about history.
I recommend this book highly. It is best available at Polonia Bookstore (where I purchased my copy) as http://www.polonia.com/ [Don't be intimidated by the Polish language - type 'Koscuiszko' into the site's search box and you'll see the book in the results. Or you can find it on http://www.amazon.com/
Word of the Day
"Numinous" - adjective [$10]
Numinous means 1. indicating a presence of divinity; 2. spiritual; 3. awe-inspiring.
Sentence: The opening ceremony to the Copenhagen conference on climate change tried to put a numinous glow onto its affairs, but perhaps simply added more proof that the entire affair is like a convention of a mass movement: money and power rule by a clique. Freedom of the common man and his prosperity is at serious risk there.
Friday, December 4, 2009
TGIF and some moves
A long week is almost over, and 2009 has just a bit under one month left. Krypto checked her Fund yesterday and as much easy money has been made, Krypto hit the button on the computer to re-allocate. Good doggie ... here's your fee, a fine dog biscuit.
Krypto sold quite a bit of gold (the ETF - GLD), gold stocks, REIT index fund ETF (VNQ), and emerging market ETF (VWO) and the sister index fund. Overall this was about 3.5% of Krypto Fund holdings which were moved to money market funds. All the monies were in retirement accounts, hence no tax affects. TIPS and bonds (except certain municipal bonds) do not seem like good buys to me now, so I'll wait, probably a year until the Fed starts to raise rates. If the stock markets pull back, I can re-buy at lower prices. Patience, grasshopper ....
The speculative 1-2-3 Fund is mostly cash now, too, as all the S&P calls were sold earlier this week as posted. I have some MT stock, MT calls, HBC calls, BA calls and some RIMM, CX and VVUS. I expect a good jobs numbers and will likely take all sugar on all options on any ramp after the number - IF I'm right.
On a push towards S&P 1200, I will look for short plays. My first stop will be any market leaders that fail to make new recovery highs. Second will be whatever sectors I think might be over-extended and ready for a drop. I think the beefers are already distributing stocks like AAPL, GS, etc. They will pull the trigger on all their holdings before year end IF their management fees seem in danger.
I don't expect a big pullback unless something bad happens, like Obama passing his cluster FUBAR health plan. IF that passes, job stagnation will rule for a decade or more.
Yesterday's late selloff had two possible causes: (1) GS put out a negative forecast for this AM's job number to select clients (GS does this the day before the number recently), or (2) general big cap selling by institutions raising funds to buy the BAC offering. Or both.
That BAC offering was something called "Common Equivalent Securities" - CES for short. I suppose they came from some investment banking firm's CESspool. What a bunch of s&^% ! If you want to sell stock, sell stock. Only a fool hasn't learned that complexity is costly and dangerous. Of course, BAC is still run by fools and cads.
Word of the Day
"Desideratum" - noun [$10]
Desideratum means something desired as essential.
Sentence: Strong improvement on the job market is the crucial desideratum for further economic and market advances.
Krypto sold quite a bit of gold (the ETF - GLD), gold stocks, REIT index fund ETF (VNQ), and emerging market ETF (VWO) and the sister index fund. Overall this was about 3.5% of Krypto Fund holdings which were moved to money market funds. All the monies were in retirement accounts, hence no tax affects. TIPS and bonds (except certain municipal bonds) do not seem like good buys to me now, so I'll wait, probably a year until the Fed starts to raise rates. If the stock markets pull back, I can re-buy at lower prices. Patience, grasshopper ....
The speculative 1-2-3 Fund is mostly cash now, too, as all the S&P calls were sold earlier this week as posted. I have some MT stock, MT calls, HBC calls, BA calls and some RIMM, CX and VVUS. I expect a good jobs numbers and will likely take all sugar on all options on any ramp after the number - IF I'm right.
On a push towards S&P 1200, I will look for short plays. My first stop will be any market leaders that fail to make new recovery highs. Second will be whatever sectors I think might be over-extended and ready for a drop. I think the beefers are already distributing stocks like AAPL, GS, etc. They will pull the trigger on all their holdings before year end IF their management fees seem in danger.
I don't expect a big pullback unless something bad happens, like Obama passing his cluster FUBAR health plan. IF that passes, job stagnation will rule for a decade or more.
Yesterday's late selloff had two possible causes: (1) GS put out a negative forecast for this AM's job number to select clients (GS does this the day before the number recently), or (2) general big cap selling by institutions raising funds to buy the BAC offering. Or both.
That BAC offering was something called "Common Equivalent Securities" - CES for short. I suppose they came from some investment banking firm's CESspool. What a bunch of s&^% ! If you want to sell stock, sell stock. Only a fool hasn't learned that complexity is costly and dangerous. Of course, BAC is still run by fools and cads.
Word of the Day
"Desideratum" - noun [$10]
Desideratum means something desired as essential.
Sentence: Strong improvement on the job market is the crucial desideratum for further economic and market advances.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Riding Along ...
À propos my investments, I've been riding this bull elephant for awhile quite comfortably. I'm starting to wonder if a few elephants in the herd are getting a bit hungry, though, or thirsty. For example, AAPL and GS. Those were leaders in the herd, but have faltered and are unable to make new recovery highs as the averages do just that. This tweaked my memories of past bull market runs and some lore from the very, very distant past from that great speculator, Jesse Livermore. I'm not drawing any conclusions, but my investigative urge has been kindled. Today I'll look over a lot of charts to see what they show me.
I expect a good jobs number tomorrow and Ms. Market seems to do that, too, this morning.
BAC says it's going to repay $45 billion in TARP funds. They are going to issue lots of common shares. Ugh ... A problem in analysis for all these big banks ... what is the stabilized earnings potential ? The old EPS levels won't work as estimates because they have all issued so many shares. I suppose one would have to convert the old EPS to $ and then divide by the new shares outstanding.
I am re-checking Krypto Fund for asset allocations. Getting close, perhaps.
World Events
The bad boys continue acting like bad boys. WSJ reports that Iran is threatening people in the US who criticise it on the Internet. Russian judges who criticize the security services get sacked.
Honduras, however, seems to have survived a power grab by proto-fascist ex-President Zelaya. An election is ... an election. Good for the people of Honduras and its leaders.
Is Brazil's President Lula trying to grab attention on the world stage ? He's made some rather odd public statements lately. That's a worry for investments in Brazil in my opinion, Hubris is at work, methinks.
Word of the Day
"Syllabub" - noun [$10]
Syllabub means a dessert made of cream or milk flavored, sweetened and whipped to thicken it.
Sentence: Will tomorrow's job's number be a tasty syllabub for the return to normalcy stock market banquet since early March, to will it disappoint like a bowl of raspberries with a worm in it ?
Btw, I once was served a bowl of raspberries with a worm at a famous NYC restaurant. As I was with a client, I surreptitiously removed the crawling bug.
I expect a good jobs number tomorrow and Ms. Market seems to do that, too, this morning.
BAC says it's going to repay $45 billion in TARP funds. They are going to issue lots of common shares. Ugh ... A problem in analysis for all these big banks ... what is the stabilized earnings potential ? The old EPS levels won't work as estimates because they have all issued so many shares. I suppose one would have to convert the old EPS to $ and then divide by the new shares outstanding.
I am re-checking Krypto Fund for asset allocations. Getting close, perhaps.
World Events
The bad boys continue acting like bad boys. WSJ reports that Iran is threatening people in the US who criticise it on the Internet. Russian judges who criticize the security services get sacked.
Honduras, however, seems to have survived a power grab by proto-fascist ex-President Zelaya. An election is ... an election. Good for the people of Honduras and its leaders.
Is Brazil's President Lula trying to grab attention on the world stage ? He's made some rather odd public statements lately. That's a worry for investments in Brazil in my opinion, Hubris is at work, methinks.
Word of the Day
"Syllabub" - noun [$10]
Syllabub means a dessert made of cream or milk flavored, sweetened and whipped to thicken it.
Sentence: Will tomorrow's job's number be a tasty syllabub for the return to normalcy stock market banquet since early March, to will it disappoint like a bowl of raspberries with a worm in it ?
Btw, I once was served a bowl of raspberries with a worm at a famous NYC restaurant. As I was with a client, I surreptitiously removed the crawling bug.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Delving into Obama's Mind
One has to use the deeds of a person to understand truly what they want, not just the words. This is especially true for a politician, who often can be rather gifted in obfuscating his true intentions with rhetoric.
Where does Obama want to lead the US ?
What simple deeds show his intent ?
I believe his decision to bow to foreign monarchs shows that he wants to downgrade the US as an independent, truly free sovereign nation with a unique free pioneer spirit.
Bowing to a hereditary monarch is NOT a sign of respect. A hereditary monarch is a person who won the lucky sperm contest, a person who perhaps has done nothing significant except not act like a fool in public. The photos of Obama almost licking the floor in front of the Japanese Emperor made me cringe, as did his deep bow to the King of Saudi Arabia, a person who would put all women into harems and keep them as household slaves.
Bowing is a sign of subservience to some of the world's ruling classes, a sign he wants to be part of their club. In protocol, the US President has NEVER bowed for foreign kings or heads of state. Does Obama bow to the French President ? Nope. The Russian President ? Nope. But to kings, yup. This is no accident. It's intentional and is a sign that Obama does NOT believe or consider the US as a bastion for freedom for free people. He looks at the US as just another nation who must kowtow to the world's ruling classes.
Hence, he is kowtowing to the Japanese Emperor. And the King of Saudi Arabia.
Afghanistan
I'll read about the plan as announced think about the new strategy. Speeches can hide the true nature of a plan, or not; reading the details is essential.
Actions
I flipped the S&P calls that I added Monday AM, so now hold just the position from Friday. Actually, this was a rather large speculation as it made me about 250% long effectively when I had all the calls. Now I'm down to a bit over 150% long. Waiting now.
Word of the Day
"Pointillist" - noun and adjective [$10]; from "Pointillism" - a term from the world of art. From French, pointiller, to paint with small dots.
Pointillism means a post impressionist school of painting associated with Seurat and his followers in late 19th century France and marked by the application of paint in small dots and brush strokes that blend together when seen from a distance.
Pointillist means (noun) a artist embracing pointillism; (adjective) of, by or having the quality of the techniques or style of pointillism.
Sentences: (A) [from WSJ, Peggy Noonan's column, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2009] "This week, two points in an emerging pointillist picture of a White House leaking support [appeared] ..." (B) The Obama Presidency is like a pointillist picture - from a distance, an recognizable image, but looking up close, no substance or solidity.
By the way, the photos of persons featured in The Wall Street Journal columns are made with black and white pointillism.
Where does Obama want to lead the US ?
What simple deeds show his intent ?
I believe his decision to bow to foreign monarchs shows that he wants to downgrade the US as an independent, truly free sovereign nation with a unique free pioneer spirit.
Bowing to a hereditary monarch is NOT a sign of respect. A hereditary monarch is a person who won the lucky sperm contest, a person who perhaps has done nothing significant except not act like a fool in public. The photos of Obama almost licking the floor in front of the Japanese Emperor made me cringe, as did his deep bow to the King of Saudi Arabia, a person who would put all women into harems and keep them as household slaves.
Bowing is a sign of subservience to some of the world's ruling classes, a sign he wants to be part of their club. In protocol, the US President has NEVER bowed for foreign kings or heads of state. Does Obama bow to the French President ? Nope. The Russian President ? Nope. But to kings, yup. This is no accident. It's intentional and is a sign that Obama does NOT believe or consider the US as a bastion for freedom for free people. He looks at the US as just another nation who must kowtow to the world's ruling classes.
Hence, he is kowtowing to the Japanese Emperor. And the King of Saudi Arabia.
Afghanistan
I'll read about the plan as announced think about the new strategy. Speeches can hide the true nature of a plan, or not; reading the details is essential.
Actions
I flipped the S&P calls that I added Monday AM, so now hold just the position from Friday. Actually, this was a rather large speculation as it made me about 250% long effectively when I had all the calls. Now I'm down to a bit over 150% long. Waiting now.
Word of the Day
"Pointillist" - noun and adjective [$10]; from "Pointillism" - a term from the world of art. From French, pointiller, to paint with small dots.
Pointillism means a post impressionist school of painting associated with Seurat and his followers in late 19th century France and marked by the application of paint in small dots and brush strokes that blend together when seen from a distance.
Pointillist means (noun) a artist embracing pointillism; (adjective) of, by or having the quality of the techniques or style of pointillism.
Sentences: (A) [from WSJ, Peggy Noonan's column, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2009] "This week, two points in an emerging pointillist picture of a White House leaking support [appeared] ..." (B) The Obama Presidency is like a pointillist picture - from a distance, an recognizable image, but looking up close, no substance or solidity.
By the way, the photos of persons featured in The Wall Street Journal columns are made with black and white pointillism.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Fading ...
The Dubai panic is fading everywhere but in Dubai and the Gulf markets. Of course, the bulk of losses are going to be concentrated there. Who else would own an Islamic bond, but people who believe the Islamic faith. And of those, who has lots of money to invest ? Rich Arabs.
The world moves on .... the panic mongers failed to start another conflagration. A metaphor: It's tough to start a new fire when the building is soaking wet from the prior fire-fighting effort. And the world is awash in liquidity in the aftermath of the Panic of 2008.
Good economic news came out yesterday morning. On that and the containment of the Dubai defaults, during the morning dip I doubled up on the S&P Dec. call options and the HBC call options. I plan to hold these until the Friday jobs number comes out, which I expect to be good. But IF the markets ramp into that report, I'll take the sugar before the number. I am not a pig. Je ne suis pas un goinfre.
Book of the Week
Black Sea, by Neal Ascherson (1995, about 300 pages). This book is a very readable and interesting work about the cultures surrounding the Black Sea and that sea's ecology. Ascherson covers many facets of the history from the Scythians and Sarmations to the Crimea to the Don Cossacks to events in the war between Abkhazia and Georgia in 1992-3. In scope, Ascherson includes historical and cultural events from Odessa to Trebizond (NE Turkey today) around the northeastern half of the sea's shore. I think he just ran out of pages, so Turkey and its Ottoman past, the Byzantine empire and the Danube area are left out, as is Ukraine.
Ascherson is a professional writer and can tell a story well. If you have interest in this cultural crossroads of the ancient and modern world, you will enjoy this book.
Word of the Day
"Eutrophication" - noun [$10] from "Eutrophic" - adjective [$10]
Eutrophic means (of a lake, etc.) rich in nutrients and so supporting a dense plant population, the decompostion of which kills animal life by depriving it of oxygen.
Sentence: Without some controls, so much nutrient material can flow into the Black Sea from its five major rivers that eutrification can devastate fisheries in coastal waters.
The world moves on .... the panic mongers failed to start another conflagration. A metaphor: It's tough to start a new fire when the building is soaking wet from the prior fire-fighting effort. And the world is awash in liquidity in the aftermath of the Panic of 2008.
Good economic news came out yesterday morning. On that and the containment of the Dubai defaults, during the morning dip I doubled up on the S&P Dec. call options and the HBC call options. I plan to hold these until the Friday jobs number comes out, which I expect to be good. But IF the markets ramp into that report, I'll take the sugar before the number. I am not a pig. Je ne suis pas un goinfre.
Book of the Week
Black Sea, by Neal Ascherson (1995, about 300 pages). This book is a very readable and interesting work about the cultures surrounding the Black Sea and that sea's ecology. Ascherson covers many facets of the history from the Scythians and Sarmations to the Crimea to the Don Cossacks to events in the war between Abkhazia and Georgia in 1992-3. In scope, Ascherson includes historical and cultural events from Odessa to Trebizond (NE Turkey today) around the northeastern half of the sea's shore. I think he just ran out of pages, so Turkey and its Ottoman past, the Byzantine empire and the Danube area are left out, as is Ukraine.
Ascherson is a professional writer and can tell a story well. If you have interest in this cultural crossroads of the ancient and modern world, you will enjoy this book.
Word of the Day
"Eutrophication" - noun [$10] from "Eutrophic" - adjective [$10]
Eutrophic means (of a lake, etc.) rich in nutrients and so supporting a dense plant population, the decompostion of which kills animal life by depriving it of oxygen.
Sentence: Without some controls, so much nutrient material can flow into the Black Sea from its five major rivers that eutrification can devastate fisheries in coastal waters.
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