I'm reading Erasmus' famous book - Praise of Folly - written circa 1500. [Folly personified is the Greek Goddess of Folly who gives a wonderful speech in the book.] I think Folly would have really enjoyed parodying these market gurus like Sutty, who is on Bubblevision now. Maybe she would have just lumped them into her parodies of the grumpy philosophers. Or perhaps she would have taken credit for them as entertaining Fools ;-) In either case, they are such a joke.
Brent crude prices keep moving up. I think North Sea oil must be having real production problems. That's one of those huge finds of 25 years ago that is running out. Ditto Mexico. And, mirabile dictu, the oil industry now says production from convention sources will have trouble keeping up with demand. I think the "peak oil" theory is mostly right, viz., "annual production" has peaked. That's NOT saying the world is running out, just that no more production can be recovered every year, due to the losses from old, huge fields. New finds are offset by old field declines.
For the commodity story, you really have to stop being US-centric. Until China and India say "STOP", I think the oils & miners will do well. For new production, I think the companies with US Gulf of Mexico deep water exposure are the ones to hold, viz., CVX and DVN and the deep water drillers - DO, GSF, RIG and NE. They are all way up, so get a good entry. XOM does seem to have big fields in Angola and new refineries in China, too, so I like it, too.
The S&P cash chart looks fine. Those two days of closes over the old high mean it's real buyers. The Nazz 100 looks strong. The Rut looks weak. What does that mean? The true ultimate real buyer is pushing this move - index fund buying. Maybe Q2 saw money being pulled from beefers and put into indexes? That would have been smart, but we'll see. There are anecdotes of such funds shifts, though.
Year to Date:
Krypto Fund: +7.3%
Alpha Fund: +51.1%
Commodities: +28.6%
It's a Bull Market.
The Trend is Your Friend.
Buy Dips.
Use Time Diversification.
Find Strong Stocks in Leading Groups.
PS: I sold the S&P futures long trade. See comments for details. Still 150% long in Alpha Fund.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
47 comments:
51% in the Alpha Fund...that is quite impressive bunkerman...congratulations on such excellent work...perhaps it is time you graduate to beeferhood...lol...
Had to look up 'mirabile dictu'.
Funny how you're up 51% and you always pissin' and moanin' about how the game(markets) is rigged in favor of the rich and powerful. If I was up 51% I would not want a thing to change as I keep bankin.
Thanks. No, I am not a beefer lolol.
The February big cap sales & mid March adds to some oils & miners, plus being aggresive on margin in the oils & miners did it.
I think it's realy a testament to how buying leading stocks and holding for big point gains can work OK. Having most money invested rather convervatively lets me push the 20% in my Alpha Fund without worying about being destroyed.
Of course the key is to identify the corect leaders.
Guess you didn't take Latin in high school, Bud ;-)
ops expo gun shy....thurdays melt up a miss direction move? unlikely, but watch your back side tuesday or wednesday for some down side shake-n-bake, some sell the news potential as well....this market has remained a buy weakness and sell strength type for the vertual players. For me that means selling technically extended stocks and adding some index shorts. TSO and some oil service leaders are struggling but shorting names a tough task, ask the housing bears from last week who's bear claws were trimmed to the quick.
I think the real buyers are dip buyers mostly. They don't chase stocks so the shorts can hit the strength with no resistance. When they knock it down, the real buyers sccop it up and force them to cover. So we grind up.
Corn is limit down. I guess the crop got pollinated OK.
Sheesh. the Phillies have lost 10,000 games? Hmm. About 110 years of baseball, so that's about 91 games per season. That's horrible!!!
Uh, perhaps a new owner is in order? A new owner made Cleveland a winner after decades of being cellar-bound.
Bunerkman, pissin' and maonin', give me a break...LMAOOO....givin' your rants about W Bud, who is fighting back terror across the globe which allows the global growth spurt the likes of which has never before been seen....you are spot on Bunkerman, Bud the typical tabloid educated american, bitching while they print bank...just shameful to take such great times for granted.
I just sold that long S&P futures position, so I'm about 150% long now in the Alpha Fund. It was just a trade that I held a few weeks. Since we're nearing trendline resistance on the cash S&P at around 1565 (10 pts away), I didn't want to stay that long into resistance.
And I have to do a lot of work in the barn this week to get ready for my expedition to the MG shoot in Vermont wilds this on Friday & Saturday.
True Frosty - At W is fight them some. I just bitch about W because I think he should hit the terrorists a lot harder. Bomb Syria, Iran, the Pakistan tribal areas, etc. Every terrorist area should get carpet bombed. Or more!
Gotta read the comments better before I publish. I meant to say, "At least W is fighting them some."
Bunkerman....s&p fine trade for an investor...lol...incrmental profit potential taken and booked.....that virtual cash spends just the same, well done.
Why stop there B? Let's bomb France too while we're at it.
Roflmao Frosty.......W? This is the Hillary rally.
Btw, doing the index trades as futures, I get 60% LT gain, 40% ST gain by law. So I save mucho $$$.
And I don't pay margin interest, either, as if I had bought SPY.
I stil make a few trades - need to keep my knife sharp hehehe.
Why bomb France, Bud? Did I miss something? ;-)
Will that cboe $NDX 100 gap of 1985 ever be filled....one can never say never, but it would be a first. That, at a minimum, will need to occur for me to put any serious cash to work in tech...of course, being a virtual slut is something I'm very confortable with.
that june gap in the nasty filled on a rinse of the 20 sma, then bounced on the 50 sma....something similar toward the end of July would be very bullish for the dip buying thesis....a parabolic blow off top, that extends well above that gap at 1985 is something the bulls shouldn't be hoping for.
Hmmm. So you're saying, "Mind the Gap" eh frosty?
That was the recording on the London subway, when I was there 20 years ago.
Soybeans limit down now, too. Beefers had a huge long there.
Bunkerman...cash paying .000137% per day while you wait...not going to pay the bar tab most days buy can still eat top shelf MRE's...lol...what get's you back in some incremental spy?
but not buy above....shutty Bud.
A significant dip on no real news and I'm in again. Maybe to 1541 cash S&P. Beefers might push for a retest of that break point.
Dips on news, I pass until I evaluate.
Back at 2PM EST - I gotta load some belts.
spinny hit his head on a ROCK this weekend....relaxing in the cement pond? TWM he posted on the bottom tick last week....looking good G-mac.
G-mac I'm open, pass the ball damn it...lol
rofl.....jumped on the SDS...down 4 in a row
Lmaoooo 'gmac pass the ball'.......frosty gmac can't do anything but shoot free throws.
corn limit down...farmer Brown going to be sitting on a pile....
these fertizer co's going to feel pain some day...when?? WHEN????..lol
You are right spin. Some day. But too tuff to time shorts in POT CF MOS TNH etc... Easier for me to buy them on dips.
farmer brown Lololol
TSO......great call frosty....touch em all as you round the bases
WNR....spin-em, swapped some of that TSO for WNR darkside....just staying ahead....WNR may play some catch up with TSO VLO this week, would it shock anyone if it were pinned at 60, where it bounced last thursday?
Sheesh. I go for an hour for a peaceful activity and the beefers attack.
I was afraid this AM that posting that +51% would jinx things.
Loks like a beefer rotaion out of oils & miners and bears are taking advantage of the weakness.
Back to the Barn.
Peace on Earth. [hehehe]
GWW...beats, ups and selling off with some juice today on the news....one beast running on empty dosn't make a trend....last earnings season I bet it ahead of earnings....didn't give it a second thought this Q....buying ahead of earnings just lost some appeal for me.
'load some belts'....what does that mean?
And please don't answer me if it has anythin to do with firearms/weapons. Please.
Bud what ya' got? Bunkerman far to mellow after banking that spy trade.....Gmac showing some nice touch...just need the Bunkerman to walk the DOG.
Lol ......frosty lookin to fade me. Got nuthin today. Just moochin off you guys.
My big winners today darksides. Been awhile since that happened.
AATI
SPY double top last 2 days?
Uh spin, a double top formation means nothing unless the tops are separated by a month or more. Otherwise it's just a consolidation pattern. In addition, the pullback between the tops has to be substantial.
The old book, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" [Edwards & Magee] is stil the bible to these patterns.
The cash S&P looks like a bullish continuation pattern so far, imho, if that. Ditto Nazz.
I may have a shorter time frames than you Bunkerman(wink)...to me, the pattern resembles the first 2 days of June....
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