Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Thoughts on a Tuesday

I see Democrats can be bribed, too. WSJ: "Some Democrats are having second thoughts about raising taxes on hedges funds and private equity managers ..."

Porkmeister Sen Ted Stevens of Alaska gets home raided by the FBI in corruption investigation. Corruption? Nahhhhh. Building bridges to nowhere is purely well-intentioned. LOLOL.

Will Bancroft family be fools or take the money? Their pompous antics definitely prove again that people growing up with plenty of money are mostly idiots in practical lfe.

Taliban murders another aid worker. Hmmmm. Uh, why aren't the tribal sanctuaries for them being carpet bombed? Fuel-air bombs? Napalm? 220 kiloton groundbursts? The tribes providing sanctuaries would be targeted in totality. I could go on with effective methods in any terrain. Lyndon "said" that there would be no sanctuaries in the war on terrorism. I guess he lied. W = Lyndon, btw. We need a 21st century Teddy Roosevelt.

On Monday the Asian markets ignored the Friday US drop - they were up solidly. Perhaps the Asia markets and economies are decoupling somewhat? I have thought for some time that eventually a self-supporting East and South Asian "co-prosperity zone" [hehe, get it?] would develop. India was strong overnight today.

Hedge fund Sowood to close. Shucks.

IBD calls Monday Day 1 in its rally count. A follow-thru day is needed on or soon after Day 4.

Corn and soybean crop conditions dropped last week. Both are now below average. But the corn crop is mostly "made" now. The crucial podfilling period for soybeans is early August. Hot, dry weather will hurt yields. Still long soybeans here as the weather seems bullish. But rain can sneak in at any time via thunderstorms - very hard to predict - and coverage is crucial. Risky.

Btw, the spring wheat crop is above average.

Natural gas beefer shorts are a huge record level as of last week's COT reports. So the gains of Friday and Monday are probably short covering in light of August heat and potential hurricane developments putting those on the screens - even though new wave developments are unlikely to hit the gulf. August is a big month for potential hurricanes. It would take real production shutdowns to remove the storage overhang now, though, since July didn't help due to a cool Northeast.

PS: PCE core inflation index year over year was 1.9% - right inside the Fed's range. The Fed's inflation bias has to come off soon. This trend has three months now. One or two rate cuts this fall and winter is my expectation.

PPS: I'm starting to sell India-related stocks in my Alpha Fund. I'm still very bullish on India and will buy a mutual fund relating to India in my Krypto Fund, but I can't really follow the individual India stocks. I bought the big cap financials as a replacement and need to add to those over the rest of the year, so I need some buying power.

31 comments:

Bud said...

I don't think taxes should be raised on anyone. But the tax code should be fair. Private equity guys payin 15% cap gains on their 'paychecks' while I pay 35% is not fair.

Bud said...

Ted Stevens a very powerful senator. This will be interesting.

Bud said...

Bancroft family fools? They built one of the crown jewels in american juornalism and they don't want it destroyed by a right wing scumbag and pimp like Murdoch. It's their right whether they wanna sell or not.
DJ shareholders? Lmaoooooo....No one forced them at gunpoint to buy DJ stock and they can also sell whenever they want. The whole world knew that the Bancroft family controls the shares and they may not sell to highest bidder.
You really are funny B'man. You always bashing the 'rich and powerful' for being greedy and just trying to line their own pockets. Here is an instance where they are turning down more money than DJ stock will ever see.....and you bashing them for that too. Lolololol

Bud said...

Talibans need to be dealt with severely. I agree with you. Musharaf doesn't have the ability do it and we need to help him 'clean out' the tribal regions of the taliban and al-qaeda guys. They want 'martydom'....let's give them their wish.

Bunkerman said...

If they want to say no, fine. But all this whining & stupid posturing is sickening. If they want to be owners, they should act like it.

Bud said...

It sure seems like Asian economies are decoupling a bit from the US. Asia's middle class is growing huge with money to spend.

mfl59 said...

Bud have you discontinued your subscription to a certain chatroom?

Bud said...

Which chat room mfl? The 'jim cramer' chat room? I still a member. Just haven't logged on in a few days. Next time I wanna know what cramer is up to ( or why liberals are evil ) i'll log on. Lmaooooooooooo

mfl59 said...

the Jim Cramer chat room....pure comedy....

Bud said...

You want pure comedy? The private equity guys are testifying on capitol hill this morning. Can't get more entertaining than that.
On the one hand you have the private equity billionaires sayin don't raise rates cuz it will hurt the firemen and plumbers and teachers......and then you have the congressmen sayin we gotta raise rates to help the fireman and plumbers and teachers. Roflmao

Bud said...

Big cap finacials look like a 'good' buy here B'man. Surely they can't go much lower. Or can they?

mfl59 said...

i believe that qualifies as pure insanity, Bud....

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm. Cramer hates my financials. Oh well. I'm green now in them net. We'll see. I'd like to double up in a few weeks or month at a good price.

Spin-em said...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY FROSTMAN!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

Yes, it's sheer sophistry that those private equity scum say the teachers & firemen will get hurt. Hmmm more like lying. That's the garbage they are trying to confuse people with.

Bunkerman said...

If there is a recession, the fins could go down a lot. But I don't see that. Sometimes there are panics in the fall. If so, I'll double up then.

Bud said...

Did frosty drown? I'll call the coast guard.

Bud said...

The US is 'due' a recession. What is the longest time between recessions post-ww2? Isn't it about 7-8 years. I have no clue ....just a thought.

maverick said...

Many CEOs of fins are buying their stock in last few days.

Bunkerman said...

No surprise the bears attacked. End less ping-pong games.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman is India your favorite emerging market play? If so could you please give some background as to why...Thanks very much...

Bud said...

Maverick those must be 'real' buyers.........lmaoooo

Bud said...

The bears attacked? Bunkerman you really need to reread your textbook for trading101. When stocks get pounded....holders who are stuck(long) want to get out. They sell on rallies. Not everyone is like you ....in it for the 'long term'. That's what makes markets.

Bud said...

New Yorkers not buying Elliot Spitzer's "I had no knowledge" bullshit regarding using state police to discredit Bruno. Three polls showin over 50% don't believe Spitzer.
That is the exact same percentage of Americans who believe president Bush flat out lied about the reasons he took the US to war in Iraq. 30% of americans feel W told the truth. Interestingly that is the same percentage of Americans who think slavery should be legal again in the US.

Bunkerman said...

I don't know if "favorite" is the best word re India. The government seems reasonable now, the educated people speak English, India has better demographics than China - more young in proportion, it's a democracy, not a military dictatorship like China. There are lots of smart Indians - they seem to sent lots of top quality scientists here. I figure it deserves an "overweight" in my emerging markets play. I really don't know a lot about other emerging markets in details - I just index then.

The English & the demographics are my main reasons - it's a long term play.

Bunkerman said...

Nahhh Bud. Here's trading 202 - the graduate course: Those were beefers re-shorting to try to knock the market down again. They don't need an uptick anymore so can play more games. Looks like real buyers scooped up that stock for now.

Bud said...

I find it very funny ( and also disingenuous) how smart guys like the B'man ( and endless others on bubblevision, on the web or the papers) often grossly over-exagerrate the power of the shorts(bears). The market is controlled by longs. Stocks go up or down because large funds with big positions in a stock are either buying or selling. Shorts are a very small portion of our equity markets. The market fell last week cuz longs were selling their stocks. Period. That's a fact. I'll explain this in more detail another time.
It's a nice day here. Gonna go hack around a golf course now.

maverick said...

Bman...subprime may be a bigger problem

mfl59 said...

Cooper looking for 1200 SPX...B'man you still confident in 1700 by year's end?

Your old pal Arch Crawford must be short I assume...

Bunkerman said...

lol, "confident" is not a word for stock markets. I think it's still in the cards as long as my economic trajetory holds, as it is. Today's data was good.

mfl59 said...

yes thats true re: "confident"...

looks like another late day beefer raid....ugly...