Tuesday, July 10, 2007

More of the Same

Is there nothing new under the Sun?

WSJ article on work of the US-Canada border commission shows Lyndon administration is just lying about border security. As is Congress. Just lying about doing something - even anything cheap. I suppose they like to spend money on expensive sensors made by firms that contribute money, instead of just mowing the brush.

Beefers hit Monday's poparoo, but dip buyers bought it and the market closed green. The Nazz showed relative strength.

We watched South Park via Tivo - saw a hilarious spoof of AlGore. Has anyone noticed that now since he's gotten rich(er) and was anointed by the Hollywood idiots & PR propaganda machine that's he's now a "respected" leader - a member of the "rich & powerful" estate. And since the US press loves to kiss their butts and kowtow to them, I suppose we're in for a lot more of his creationist nonsense. Ugh!

Hmm. That gives me an idea for another post. Hehe. My fecund brain is working ... ;-)

HD (aka Homer) warns. No shock. New CEO has to clean the slate.

Still pumping GOOG here - it's in blue sky territory now - I figure it's worth $900. Full position long in Alpha Fund.


mern said...

freaks called at 7pm with the offer, but i was at the pinecone.

taking wife for lasik today and seeing accountant, finishing touches on shop dog shop related stuff.

man heres why nice guys finish last. i found out ryan howard was gonna be in the home run derby so i called my bookie to bet on him. it was even odds. so i said "forget it". then my friend was like, do u want the field at even money? "sure put me down for 500. is that the odds in vegas??"

"no, but ill take that bet"

"r u drunk, u sound it"

"nope, but im getting there, u want the action or not?"

"no, i dont wanna take advantage of your drunk ass"

"who cares if im drunk, ryan howard is a lock"

"ok but me down for 50"

if vegas wud have given me those odds, i wud have bet 5k.

wasnt that the southpark, where cartmen ate all the fake treasure? so classic he was willing to drown, rather than kick his legs, fearing he wud poop out the treasure. trey and matt really seem to nail these people, as far as character assement, quite well.


Bunkerman said...

yes, Cartman ate the fake gold lolol. That show is so good. Amazing I never heard of it for years. People are naming their dogs after the characters. Mrs. B has seen a "Butters" and an "Eric" at dog agility shows lolol.

mern said...

that hilarious "butters".

if i ever get another black lab mix, guess ill name him "token"


Bud said...

SHLD what a dog.

Bud said...

Goin to see the Police tonite. I hate concerts on a school nite. Since i'm workin tomorrow I won't be able to fully enjoy the music with....uh....'chemical stimulants.'

maverick said...

riding SHLD up and down here but eddie gonna lose a few bucks now

Bud said...

1540 on s and p is big. It will either be a triple top or the breakout level. I'm not smart enough to know which it will be. But that is the level I am watching closely.

Frosty said...

UNG showing signs of a bottom...thinking the best it can do is base for a few weeks into the end of july....maintaining a 12.25 year end price target for nat gas.

Frosty said...

LOCM bears taking a deep breath...mern with hand.

mfl59 said...

I must admit I laugh when all these chuckleheads on tv claim a falling us dollar is good for the us stock market....bunkerman, you are well-read in economic history...can you name one time in history where a declining currency works out to be a good thing? it always seems to end badly from what I have read...or is it different this time because we are now in a "global economy"

Bunkerman said...

I think it depends on if the dollar is declining from being grossly overvalued, as in the 1980s due to Volcker's idiotic ultra-high real interest rate policy, or if it's declining from being fairly valued or undervalued.

In the 1960s and 1970s the weak dollar vs. gold at the time was not good.

The dollar is overvalued vs. some currencies in the third world, but undervalued vs. some in Europe. I'm not sure vs. the yen. Perhaps overvalued.

So long answer, it depends on the how, which, where & why.

Bunkerman said...

I think too much attention is paid to these short or intermediate term dollar moves anyway.

Bunkerman said...

The decline from the grossly overvalued dollar in the 1980s was good for the US economy as Volcker's policy destroyed US manufacturing exports - killed the rust belt. It took many years to recover. That is one example.

Bud said...

These posts on the dollar are really boring.

mfl59 said...

thanks for your input bunkerman....

Bud I apologize for boring you

maverick said...

I hope Bud gets laid soon.

Frosty said...

BID looking like a double top....hard not to lock some profits if you are a bull...consumer stock weakness spreads, there are some huge profits to protect and the season is behind it....gesh, think I just talked myself into a little darkside action.

Bud said...

Me too maverick. I'm backed up. Lmaoooo But don't for a second think that will make me any 'kindler or gentler.'

Bud said...

BID possible rollover pattern. ANST death spiral continues. I shud have pounded LOCM yday. Oh well.

mern said...

i was boxed on 5k LOCM, took 1k off the short at the close. flipped for 250 dollar loss at 8am.

wud have bought more, after seeing the S3, but had to take cindy for the lasik gig. story of my decade.

lasik was faster than expected. watched them do it. reminded me of clock work orange.

she is skeet shooting already, amazing!

so u passed on roger watters on a weekend nite and going to see the police. sting and the boyz showed me nothing on saturday. unless trying to sound exactly like u did 25 yrs on a album is your goal. i was watching sting play the bass, he is no phil lesh.

summer of 93, sting opened all summer for the dead. in DC (only 2 shows i caught that summer) both nites the opening act was Sting on bass, jerry on lead, bruce hornsby on baby grand and don henly on drums. they were gud.

i agree Mav. i dont know y bud just doesnt drive down a bit, meet dooz and get some tang. the boy needs action. not only is bud a member of the dusty dick club, but he is also the president.


Frosty said...

mern...LOCM your out? today the day to back up the truck.

mern said...

im boxed on 4k. im gonna close it out and study for the 24.

i sux at trading. didnt used to, but i just sux.

with respect to the $, the worlds biggest bear, todd harrison has been saying for well over a yr that $ and the stock market shud have an inverse relationship for sometime.

his thesis is buying puts and rolling them up on the financials, while he long the metals and oils


Frosty said...

TWM selling the incremental portion of the position from yesterday...no longer super sized, avg 59.91....more than happy to let the market take me out.

the market luv's ben...media will spin straw into gold.

mfl59 said...

that nat gas bottomfish looks pretty good frosty....

mern said...

man what a pos IBKR is. i pretty much just caught them stealing money from my account. 750 bucks. the rep was shocked and said he will call back soon. ya, sure he will.

im really starting to think about suing them.

becuase ive been reading this 24 material, ive got a list as long as my arm of rules violations they repeatably make.

now they have no idea where 750 bucks went.

mern said...

sooooo cramer is stunned by the weak SHLD and says the consumer is dirt napping.

ben saying peoples expectations of inflation r very important. i suppose thats y the BLS just makes up a CPI.

well the facts r, anyone paying attention to thier bills, my contacts r from coast to coast. rich, sorta rich, middle of the road, and lower middle class. not one contact believes thier CPI is 2.8%, excluding food and energy. and if u include food and energy i cant 1 person in fl, pa, ohio, mizzo, colorado, cali, oregon, new mexico, texas, new york, new jersey or maryland that doesnt see thier bills going up about 10% a yr, just to live the same life style, as the yr before.

the only stuff i see getting cheaper or not getting more expensive is cable, phone, internet and drugs.

homeowners is coming down in florida, but after going up 400% in 2 yrs, it wud need to go down 60% just to be reasonable, imo. compared to what we paid in the early part of this decade.

and the big rub is if the fed is crazy enuff to cut rates, after creating all this money and a huge housing bubble, the $ will get absolutely pounded, leading to accelerated inflation.

since 1990 we have had 1, 9 month recession. we had the Nasdaq bubble, the housing bubble and a private equity bubble.

so the thesis is, we had 3 huge bubbles, very little creative destruction (yet) and 17 yrs of economic growth with a 9 month recession.

really sounds like we fighting mother nature and the business cycle. the japs did that till no end in the 70's and 80's, but their banks r even more messed up than ours.

if the fed was serious about fighting inflation, they wud hike now, let the recession happen, let the creative destruction happen, and let the pigs get cleaned out.

at that point, the economy, structually, imo, wud finally be stable enuff for real secular growth and not this BLS made up growth. compounded by the corporate bond market and weak $, clearly makes EPS growth look bigger than it actually is.

ive said 100 times. elmer left a mess for ben. probably too late for ben to say its elmers fault, but elmer keeps reminding us of all the insane things he did. who else is better to speak on the subject than the freak who did, and he gets paid to explain it.

lol, what a country!

Bud said...

Mern your posts are way too long.

mern said...

i start tom.

compliance supervisor

what a country!

mern said...

dont worry bud, im a ghost after today


maverick said...

good to hear mern rant on inflation, he speaks the truth

Frosty said...

mern...it won't last.

Bud said...

Remember Mern. The brokers commish pays your salary. If you restrict them from doin business....you won't have a job.

Lolol frosty.

mfl59 said...

good for you mern...good luck...

let the bear mkt begin!

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh - just got back from kissing "the man's" butt - renewing my driver's license. 90 minutes wasted. Grrrr.

Bunkerman said...

lol mern - it's went to pump their Q2 earnings lololol

Bunkerman said...

Great, mern. Go get 'em.

Bunkerman said...

Why does "creative destruction" have to involve every industry at once. It never did before.

1990-1994 crushed real estate.
2001-2003 crushed tech.

Mid 1980s crushed rust belt & ag.

Bunkerman said...

The problem I see with all the gripes about inflation is there are so many choices one can make to reduce it.

Like the example I gave the other day about buying something that was not the newest model - a year old - at 50% off.

For insurance, do people increase the deductibles for inflation? No. So they pay more. Most insurance deductibles are silly they are so low. Low deductibles are just prepayment with an administrative cost.

And yesterday I fixed the pump on my basement air handler (for the AC on part of the house ground floor). I figured out what was wrong, blew compressed air through the drain line to unplug it and voila - probably saved a $200 service call.

When I buy my iPhone, how does that come into inflation? Heck that did not exist last year.

I changed my cable sub. and cut out HBO and Showtime & other crap, got forced to take sports to get old movies, but save $5/mo anyway.

I made myself a cheeseburger for lunch for about $2 net cost and saved the $6 it would cost in town. Plus gas.

I still think you guys on the coast & places like FL are the ones getting screwed - by living there.

mern said...

last i checked there wasnt much creative destruction from the tech fall out. if there was WCOM and GX wud not have been recapitalize (with a lower cost structure than its competitors). they wud have been shut down and has their assets divided amongst the non cheaters.

the mern indicator definitely pushing down here. im done trading, start a 60 hour a week job tom and i love the darkside. remember im from philly, the biggest mush city ever.

have fun tonite. maybe if your lucky and u get close enuff to the stage, Sting will spit on u. then u can get one of those bumper stickers "sting spit on me".

ive gotta "bob spit on me!" sticker on my benz.

its been real guys.

i am out


i check in from time to time, like once a week, but probably not until i get settled at the new digs.


Bunkerman said...

I remember when I worked in NYC - everything was so expensive. If you didn't make a pile of money, you were poor.

uh ... I moved out.

Not everyone can. I know. They get screwed. But that's because so many rich people run the prices of everything up. That's not overall inflation.

Bunkerman said...

It's like the price of MGs. Huge increases. Not due to inflation, but due to the government prohibiting new ones being owned by collectors.

So rich collectors pay anything to get them. That's not really inflation.

Bunkerman said...

Good luck mern. Remember, first impressions are very, very important. If you work hard fora month, you'll have a great rep forever.

mern said...

thx big guy and keep up the great work!

Spin-em said...

Best of luck on your new job Lt Bookman

Bud said...

Rofl bookman.