Gosh, a single trader caused a $7 Billion fraud at Societie General !!! After those huge UBS losses, I guess we now see why Europe has been a source of the panic selling. Nick Leeson and Howie Rubin redux ... it's deja vu all over again.
Yesterday was a huge outside day reversal from a new low on high volume - that's a "key reversal" and can signal a technical bottom. Basically everyone who had wanted to sell had sold and no sellers were lower. When the selling dried up, sensitive traders turned around, started covering shorts and bottom fishers scooped up cheap stocks. This built on itself and created a wave of buying. Financials and retail led as beefers decided these "early cycle" stocks were the place to be. Tech, energy and miners were still weak. So ... the beefers created a panic when the Fed was showing no leadership and then created a bounce . All this action is sort of like a "Lord of the Flies" society of unsupervised adolescent boys going crazy ... which is what the Fed, SEC and the rich have given us.
We have to live with it, though. At least the Fed seems to have learned a lesson, viz., gradualism doesn't work at turning points. We need more rate cuts next week - 50 or 75 bps. And we need a followthru day, which is a big gain on higher volume on IBD days #4 thru 7 preferably.
I have GOOG and AAPL on my long term buy list. I'll wait until they stop going down to make adds. I also am thinking of buying more of certain energies and miners. Over time I plan to consolidate my positions into larger blocks of fewer stocks. I think that will be easier for me to manage for taxes and taking advantage of beefer rips & dips.
If you don't have a cash reserve, be a bit careful now. The beefers might try to "retest" the lows.
PS: I have some short term losses this year so am not inhibited from making changes by LT gains dates in this position consolidation process. I'll probably sell CSCO, ORCL and buy more GOOG and AAPL. I also got some EDU and might get some more. I think my energies, miners, and deep water drillers need some consolidation, too - no net selling, just concentration.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
45 comments:
that is a jaw dropping story.
man i went out yesterday and the dow ripped 600 hundred pts
BAC almost up on the yr.
nice job bman
Glad to see those big cap fins coming off their bottoms for ya Bman....
Can the financials become the leaders of a new bull move? Not that I'm saying such a move is about to begin-but when the time does come....
uh ... that's why I started buying them last year, mfl ... to be leaders on a new leg up.
Obviously the beefers didn't agree then and they have all the chips nowadays so control the ST moves.
But I still think the big fins gain market share and will increase margins as they wil have the relationships and cheap money from deposits and not have to rely on brokers and others to find business.
UNP good numbers ... thsoe rails are making money.
Uh ... rails = real = no recession.
good jobs number - no recession.
big fins will increase margins? what are you talkin about Bman?
the margins on subprimes was super-high....and according to you the 'beefer' business will soon be gone
fins have to go back to the old fashioned way of makin money.....opening branches and clearin checks........the growth rates in earnings is gonna be in lo single digits
that's a very lo-margin biz
UNP fell 30 points in a month
Bman sounds like cramer now.......down 30 points.....bounces a few points.....and he announces
"no recession"
lmaooooooooooooooooo
ooh Bud ... you seem to have a hard time distinguishing between the real and the virtual.
Wall Street is not Main Street.
Net interest income will increase for the big fins and all the deals and loans lost to the likes of BSC and Wall Street via loan brokers will have to come back to the big fins.
All those little mortgage companies are gone now, too. Corporate spreads are way up, too.
people with caller ID are spooky - they know it's me before answering.
Bunkerman...there is no more creative place than wall street...Bud is not a creative, positive or a foward thinking type person...new products and services will replace those that were lost in this round of distruction...if there is a buck to be made and there always will be, banks will have a product and angle to fill the void...silly little man...if the mitt fits, you can't convict.
median home sales prices down about 1.8% year over year - What's the big deal ? That's rounding error.
XLF gappa filled just over 28...SKF down 40 beans, worth a shot for a little ping pong one would think...with the $IVX I think establishing a new higher trading range 25-45, makes sense...friday's have belonged to the darkside.
so lemme get this right
banks will figure out a new way to make money?
i don't even think frosty worked in the mail room at a bank........sounds more like custodial services
lmaooooooooooooooooooooo
I hear ya on SKF...i went with the SRS myself Frosty....who's buying homies and reits after 2 big up days? as they say those are the fools....worth a shot indeed....
I traded XOM for more CVX.
no, Bud ... sheesh ... their competition is going away and all they have to do is raise prices and go back to doing what they did 20 years ago - an oligopoly.
sold CHK to buy more DVN.
sold COP to buy more CVX.
consolidating into what I really like LT.
sold NE, NOV; bought more DO, RIG
sold CSCO, ORCL; bought more GOOG
well well well
what are these 'buys and sells'
Bman sure is acting exactly like all the ....uh.....'beefers'.....he likes to rant and rave and piss and moan against......'watering hole'
Bman is no different than them.......he sees a cheap stock.....scoops in....and flips it for a gain.....nuthin wrong with that
but to yell and cry when the beefers do it........
what a phony!
im sooooooo high
sheesh Bud, I don't have a staff ... I'm not a "boss" ... just a common man ... I need to cut back the number of stocks I have so I can have more time off to work on my milling machine and welder.
No dollar changes in the groups.
IF I was a pseudo-beefer, I'd be flipping those buys I made on Friday & Monday in the big fins. But I'm keeping them LT.
Bman spends 20 minutes ....uh...'workin' with his milling machine and welding..........then takes a 5 hour break to check the stock market
comman man my ass
lmaoooooooooooooooo
When is the much anticipated knife fight between Bunkerman and Bud? should be a dandy indeed...
I put Bunkerman at 2,555,687,000 to 1 favorite MLF 59, if anyone is looking for so action...Bud would be best served to stay away from the k-bar...besides with the plactic kinfe, he can just wide his mouth to coat the blade with lipstick...Bud far too many pole spins last night at the biker bar, obviously a litte dizzy this morning.
SKF doubled up, avg just over 104.
Mern sounds like you have your head together this morning, what are we doing with MSFT?
"what are we doing with msft?"
lmaoooooooooo
frosty you really are a mean person
i need a bong hit
bot a bit a AAPL - 1/2 of planned add to existing position
hey...I luv the mern...everyone luvs the mern...gotta luv the mern..I just want to take advantage of his skills...after all I'm just the janitor.
uh Bud...like you didn't hammer AAPL...I say we chip in and get him the big tv.
I don't understant these rich turds on TV saying that $1200 per couple means nothing ... or even $300 for a person under $25K/year.
That's aftertax money and is about a week's pay for those people.
$20K/52 = $380/week cf. $300
$35K/52 = $673/week
median incmoe $55K/52 = $1,057 per week cf. $1200.
More rich & powerful out of touch with reality.
i finally agree with the Bman
poor working families are gettin crushed in the Bush recession
every penny helps
heck, $1200 is a month's mortgage payment on a $200K loan at 6%
i luv nancy pelosi
she is so graceful and smart
poor frosty
what a deal...the liars and cheaters get a house payment while the average common man with a 401k near retirement takes a 50k hit...help indeed.
Bunkerman...so we have all the news out on the table, now what?...the ball is back in Ben's court and the market now trusts him again having bet up the odds he will take the k-bar to rates next week...given his track record that sounds a little wrong headed...the last vote for 75 bps passed, but not without dispute....what say you sir?
let's see now......one's a janitor and the other guy's a welder
and they gonna tell Ben what to do?
lmaooooooooooooooooo
Frosty are you going to ride SKF into tomorrow sir?
well, Poole is a fool.
I think Ben cuts 50 bps next week and gives amother aggressive statement that continued weakness means more cuts.
meanwhile, data will soon begin to show taht there is no recession and the credit market snd housing markets begin to clear. Jobs are ok. Consumer is OK.
So all the recession mongers find they are in a fantasy house. In a month everyone will be saying the Fed is great and was "timely" [except me], kissing Ben's butt.
Asia and emerging markets continue to grow fast.
And US stocks are so cheap we get a long rally into the spring ... some consolidation and a long rally into fall as beefers underperform and are slowly liquidated :-)
Big fins, exporters, energies, miners, Internet tech and AAPL lead [viz., my stocks]
yearend: stable growth path ... S&P to 1700, Dow 15000 as we culminate in a huge year as McCain is elected President and divided governmetn continues.
MLF59...indeed sir.
oh ... and corporate defaults and commercial RE defaults remain low ... and by fall big fins are taking huge gains from reversal of prior losses on marks as real defualts are well below "Mr. Market" estimates.
And the SEC reverses itsself on the uptick rule, while Barney holds hearings on hedge fund and derivative regulations.
By fall, banking activities of beefers are prohibited, derivatives are made to require Treasury collateral, hedge funds over $1 billion are required to register as investment companies and obey their rules. And the uptick rule is applied to ETFs.
Ahhh .. heaven !
:-)))
Bunkerman...chasing the dragon with brother Mern...oh my :)
Bud...what are you plans for the rebate check?...I say invest in gold...perhaps one of those gold grills or a mr T started kit.
I suggest that Bud buy a roscoe with his $300. There are quite good .38's available for that. He needs more self-sufficiency and less dependence on "the man" :-))
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