I really getting tired of the fear-mongering ... are the markets every "clear" ? Is uncertainty ever gone ? So why do I hear pundits say to be cautious due to ... "uncertainty" ? Sheesh. Phooey !
Here are two facts.
1. Copper prices are up 10% over recent lows.
2. Dupont issued increased EPS guidance for 2007 and 2008.
Where are the negative pre-announcements? A bit skimpy. So where is the evidence for the disaster for Q4 2007 that the pundits assume occurred ? Their claims for a recession were counting on Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 to meet the minimal criteria.
Every day I hear another analyst saying that something bad "may" occur. They are falling over each other trying to create a bearish CV ... sheesh.
I think I'll puke if I hear another pundit say that some event "must" happen since the "market" predicts it. Uh ... didn't the market predict Obama would beat Hillary last night ... uh ... what happened to that one ? Real people made the actual decision, not the "market" traders. That same principle applies to the economy and the Fed - real people will make the decisions.
I must be getting old - at least I'm over 45 and in the "wise" age group !!! Sheesh, I remember the same garbage in 1981, when articles about Fed policy seemed to imply that a bond trader 's thoughts were "important" about a long term policy. Sheesh, what sheer nonsense !
Focus on the facts and forget the fluff.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
47 comments:
im going through charts for the first time in months. wow i cant remember a yr getting off to a worse start since i really started following the tape in 94. S&P broke a triple bottom yesterday.
another day where futs r being ramped on a few bucks, then we probably sell off the rest of today.
china halting food prices? i know i am simpleton but inflation is too much money chasing too few goods, right? as the secular winds blow into china russia brazil and india, clearly the # of goods (produced from natural resources) is going lower. so how can adding liquidity not making it worse?
creative destruction and death baby. we need more war, to thin out the worlds populations (:-))
hiliary won the same amount of delegates, and only won by 8k votes. still think that is a win for obama. and hiliary just makes me sick to my stomach "Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice," so who have you been listening to the past yr? what a tool.
i like mccain but he aint my guy.
huckabee needs to die!
fear-mongering? uncertainty?
lmaoooooooooooooo
anyone who thinks we aren't in a recession is delusional
why would anyone be callin for a fed rate cut if things are booming
banks, housing, restaurants, tech...etc....all destroyed
nuthin 'uncertain' about those sectors
Uh ... Bud ... can you read English ?
See the PS in Monday's comment.
They are simply too tight and need to go the low neutral ... their tightness is causing problems.
we have been in one, but the BLS hasnt been honest. the question is, is it almost over? kernen singing stagger lee today, shud be close. but with the election uncertainty and eco mo to the downside, dont know about trying to catch a falling knife. have plenty of scars on my feet from those days.
jim rice gets no respect
we r so close to getting some genuine creative destruction. we have a little, but compared to all the butter the economy has added since 98, the withdrawl will be nasty. but at that point the structual playing field will be level and we can move forward. or b, the govt gives the economy another speedball, we feel great again for however long, and then really dirt nap.
reminds that episode of whats happening when re run entered a dance contest and kept borrowing more money than he wud win, just trying to win the contest.
What have you seen, my blue-eyed son?
What have you seen, my darling young one?
Saw a newborn babe with wild wolves around it,
I saw a highway of diamonds with nobody on it,
I saw a black branch with blood that keep dripping,
I saw a roomful of men and their hammers were bleeding,
I saw a white ladder all covered with water,
I saw 10,000 talkers, nobody listening,
I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of small children.
And it's a hard it's a hard it's a hard it's a hard,
It's a hard gonna fall.
signed GS
So the house market in FL is "not" creative destruction in process ?
What other industries are massively overbuilt ?
Well, the hedge fund industry is, certainly. :-))
said we had "a little", but imho, many many structual excesses still exist, mostly in deriviatives (which i dont understand, but neither does buffett).
the creative destruction i see is in the financials, not real tangible.
imo MOST people in the country need to adjust thier lifestyle to the net worth. the shop i just worked at, every guy around me lived pay check to pay check. when it got close to pay day, everyone needed an advance. these were non drug addicts, family people. my boss is way in the whole as a result of child #1. he works like 80 hours a week for 80k. doesnt leave much time for the fam, exercise, eating right, living right.
living the american dream is getting harder and harder for the AVERAGE guy.
i never had any debt to speak. partially lucky, partially smart. i know so many people 20 to 100k on credit cards, it is the norm, not the exception. like my best friend in philly, she just had her first baby. they in the whole 20 to 30k, her trust fund is empty. but they just had to go see the hubbys parents in south africa, for a month.
the sense of entitlement in this country is so bad from like anyone 50 or younger. and the younger they are the worse it gets.
In truth, anything will help. The spike in mortgage defaults, auto loan defaults and credit card defaults in 2008 will be much worse than 2007 without some relief from taxes and the Fed.
jjc
see my big problem with that, is why bail these idiots out? are they not adults? in my world, no one other than me, gives a shit what really happens to me. that is just the way the world works, unless u come from big money and never had to work like our president.
mern missed my favorite 2 lines from that song
i met 1 man wounded by love
i met another one wounded by hate
if i cud, id short etfc right now.
ive been wounded by both several times, bud!
:-)
is this a recesssion?
where's frosty? Hillary bitch-clapped him last nite
he's prolly still cryin like a pussy bitch that he is
like WCOM was the bottom for the tech bubble. CFC's bk cud be the bottom for the housing bubble.
die Hiliary die!
St. Louis Fed President Poole said U.S. economic fundamentals remain strong and 2008 looks to be a year of rising growth. He also noted it is too early to tell if housing problems will push the economy into a recession.
same guy said sub prime wud be contained to sub prime.
lol
Bud....LMAOOOO...hildog breaks down in tears to snag a win, speakng of pussy bitchs...oh my, what has the world come to when your leading presidental canidate goes to the cry baby card...I'll take the loss like a man, as always...you have a real winner there, indeed.
CFC is not going to fail mern, they still write one in five home loans...the regulators would be shutting down lending activities if the case were impending bankruptcy...the system needs CFC like it or not
CFC can go BK and still operate just fine. just ask worldcom or any airline.
yes to big to fail, but not too big for the stock to go to 0, imo.
its in a death spiral, and that can become a self fullfilling prophecy. no one thought WCOM was going out biz and they didnt
CFC will go BK, clear their debt, the american tax payer takes it up the butt, and we move on!
thats the american way!
when was the last time john mccain got an erection? 1992?
how about rudy?.....we know he hasn't had a woody this century.... i'm sure he enjoyed his doctor tellin him to...uh...'cough'......prostate cancer my ass....that's a cover....rudy's a queer
u sound like a bible thumper, Bud.
who cares?
what u dont think hiliary is packing a tree trunk in that untouched couter?
chelesy came out of her azz, and is the biggest poop ever.
lmaoooooooooooooooo mern
uh oh, survey of econmists say no recession [Bloomberg]. I guess I should be worried.
Mern...CFC is increasing deposits at a fine pace and the regulators allowed the movement of loans onto their banks balance sheet...to big to fail, no, but failure of CFC would spark a complete melt down of the system...don't get me wrong, not pounding the bull table, but let's get real...it not real, at least stay in orbit.
that's how I see it, frosty. they still make money writing loans and the servicing business makes plently, too, of cash flow.
and al those loans can be financed at the FHLBB
Mern, I do concur, it appears a bear market is in motion, like stopping a freight train at this point...I just want to figure out how to benefit from it.
goddammit.....bring back the uptick rule!!!!
indices hanging in there, breadth is stank.
VIX leaps? anyone?
tempting
you guys defending CFC
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
it's crap........the stock is goin to zero
Bunkerman...those utes hang tough, they are the last hope of the bull to beat the recession, no?...those should be cracking, they should be getting clocked if the bear drummers are correct...what is holding them up or is it early?...odd behavior indeed, could be different this time due to credit market turmoil....the double juice dark is SDP.
Mern, that $vix is acting rather strange, noted yesterday 200 bp market decline and $vix up 125 bps...perhaps in incicates people are giving up on the releif bounce and are waiting for the woooosh down panic.
Bud, if CFC goes to zero you better hope Bunkerman let's you move your van down by the river into his secure compound and allow you to enter bunky U...beats going back to turning tricks down at the biker bar.
where are you Ben? cut rates now!!!! we need a 'shock and awe' rate cut!!!!!
low interest rates, I'd say, frosty. All those stock income funds have been selling the fins and buying more utilities.
Bud ... just repeat after me: "Ben, obey Bunkerman now ! He's right !"
Frosty dont utilities lead once the economy dives into recession?
lmaoooooooo Bunky U
well........if i ever want a degree in paranoia....i'll enroll
LMAOOOO...Bud, like a case of the alaska king crabs for which there is no cure.
lol
MLF59...perhaps my post was a little confusing, imagine that...the utes need to get clocked to support the soft landing camp...the fins catch a bid on an emergency rate cut and the utes get hit, the non-recesssion camp has at least one positive correlation.
I did short gold today and AU...so the emergency cut can't be more than a day away.
to duke and duke
"margin call gentlemen"
maybe some beefers short credit derivatives got liquidated ?
mern...who's on margin, the bears...short squeeze coming as contracts roll to the out months on thurday before ops expo?
at the firm i worked at, who isnt on margin?
YEE HAW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hey ... I have some margin in my Alpha Fund. I run an aggressive shop ;-)
did Ben just cut 50bps?
Bud...this is the big mac is a lock for president rally, now that hildog is back in the game...the market recognizes the senator from arizona will make short work of her.
about time the real buyers showed up for once...
AA beats eps, revs for Q4.
Post a Comment